No Risk – No Reward!
Most fans do not read too much into the Dodgers’ pickup of Jack Suwinski on waivers from the Pirates, but he could actually make the Opening Day roster (with a good spring) as he is out of Minor League options. He may actually have an outside chance at breaking camp with Los…
Most fans do not read too much into the Dodgers’ pickup of Jack Suwinski on waivers from the Pirates, but he could actually make the Opening Day roster (with a good spring) as he is out of Minor League options. He may actually have an outside chance at breaking camp with Los Angeles due to his ability to play center field. He hit 26 HR in 2023, but like James Outman, his strikeout rate is just borderline stupid! If anyone can unlock his hitting potential, it is the Dodgers’ system, with Robert Von Socyoc and Aaron Bates.
Because utility man Tommy Edman will start the year on the injured list, the Dodgers are lacking center-field depth behind projected starter Andy Pages. They have spoken about getting Hyeseong Kim some reps in center, but he has primarily played the infield in his career, and his defensive metrics in CF are not good… Defensive specialist Michael Siani is also on the 40-man roster, but his bat has not played at the big league level.
Ryan Ward is trade bait, and the signing of Suwinski pretty much cements that. The Dodgers are giving him an opportunity to show out.
OLD FRIENDS
Old Friend, Miguel Vargas is being widely identified as a breakout candidate for the 2026 season. Following an underwhelming 2024 campaign in which he struggled to make an impact with the White Sox after a trade from the Dodgers, Vargas turned a corner in 2025, leading analysts to predict a significant leap forward in 2026. I have always said that progress is not linear, but I have always touted his tools. Here is why analysts and projections are high on a Miguel Vargas breakout:
- Improved 2025 Performance: After struggling to a .175 average from 2022–2024, Vargas rebounded in 2025 to hit .234 with 16 home runs and 60 RBI in 138 games.
- Strong Second Half 2025: Vargas finished the 2025 season strong, hitting .277 with four home runs and 17 RBI over his last 112 at-bats following an All-Star break turnaround.
- Physical Changes and Elite Contact Skills: Vargas reported to 2026 Spring Training in better physical shape, adding muscle to address weight loss issues from previous seasons. He maintains a solid 9.8% walk rate and an improved 17.6% strikeout rate.
- Opportunity and Role: He is expected to start every day at third base for the White Sox in 2026 and hit in the middle of the lineup, providing high-volume opportunities for production.
- High-Value Fantasy Sleeper: With an ADP (Average Draft Position) often north of 250, he is considered a very low-risk, high-reward “sleeper” or “deep league” pick for 2026.
- Elite Statistical Backing: One comprehensive analysis (SPARK Score) ranks him as the #1 breakout candidate for 2026 among all young non-All-Stars, noting he improved in virtually every measurable category last season.
- Guaranteed Playing Time: Vargas is projected to be the Chicago White Sox’s everyday third baseman and hit in the middle of their order.
- Underlying Metrics: In 2025, he posted a career-high 40.5% hard-hit rate and a significantly improved 17.6% strikeout rate.
- Fantasy “Sleeper” Status: He is a frequent “sleeper” pick in fantasy baseball circles, with projections suggesting he could reach 23–25 home runs and a batting average over .270 if he stays healthy.
Key Perspectives on his 2026 Potential
- The Bull Case: Proponents argue that his 2025 “step forward” was just the beginning. They highlight his improved bat-to-ball skills (83.4% contact rate) and believe his home run-to-flyball ratio (7.6%) was unlucky and is due for a massive positive regression.
- The Bear Case: Some skeptics remain cautious, noting that while his 2025 was better, he was still only a “league-average” hitter (101 wRC+). They point to his below-average bat speed (70.6 mph) as a potential ceiling on his power breakout.
- Clubhouse Role: Vargas has expressed high personal excitement for 2026, stating his goal is to play all 162 games at third base for the White Sox.
Miggy is no longer a Dodger, but I root for him as I root for other ex-Dodgers, such as Michael Busch, Caleb Ferguson, and Keibert Ruiz. Except when they play the Dodgers. What about Alex Verdugo, you may ask? Here was Alex, the last I saw him.
Baseball Prospectus
Here’s what BP says about the Dodgers:
LA Dodgers (105-57, 11 more wins than the next best team)
— Baseball Prospectus
Listen, I understand. Everyone thinks the Dodgers are going to be very good in 2026 and PECOTA is no exception, but I wanted to include them as an added nugget because they’ve kind of broken the system. Baseball projections are supposed to end with most teams bunched up together because that’s just how baseball works: the small talent disparity between most squads and the sport’s inherently random nature come together to create tons of equality. The second-best team in our projections, the Seattle Mariners, come out with about 11 wins more than the 14th-best team… which is, more or less, the same gap between the Dodgers and Mariners. The system projects the Dodgers to have close to a 40% chance to reach the World Series outright and 22% odds to win it all, both nearly twice as much as anyone else.
This is not supposed to be possible, for one team to be so clearly head and shoulders above the rest. And it’s not just Kyle Tucker! As strong of a projection as a 135 DRC+ and 4.5 WARP is, the Dodgers would still be on another planet relative to the rest without him—Tucker just makes them all the more ridiculous. Ohtani is Ohtani, projecting for a combined 9.5 WARP between hitting (6.4 WARP as a DH) and pitching. Mookie Betts gets a bounceback projection that amounts to roughly 5 WARP, and the system might actually be underselling Will Smith a little. Freeman and Muncy should both be worth three or more wins, enough to make up for the misery of playing meager two-win players such as Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernández, and Andy Pages everyday. The outrage!
But the real craziness is on the pitching side. Yamamoto, Snell, Ohtani, Glasnow, Sheehan; the highest projected DRA- of that group is Glasnow’s 90, which would make him an excellent no. 2 for most teams. Roki Sasaki (107 DRA-) is no darling of the system and it just doesn’t matter because PECOTA is more than fine with the depth starters too. (One of them could very easily be trade bait if the Dodgers seek another outfielder.) They also signed Edwin Díaz (70 DRA-) and have like 17 relievers with average or better projections, Tanner Scott among them.
The consolation? The Dodgers are a very veteran team; almost every regular is over 30 and a handful are well into their mid-thirties. Maybe there’s only a couple more years of this to be subjected to. The bad news for that hope? Tucker and Yamamoto are probably still peaking right now. Ohtani exists. The even worse news for those hoping the Dodgers will just go away? Our Top 101 prospects list and organizational prospect rankings. Buckle up, folks.
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Discussion (63)
Disagree, not disagreeable
No injury. Just assuming he’ll stay in minors when the season opens.
Oh gotcha
Giants To Sign Brent Honeywell Jr. To Minor League Deal
Agree 100%
Excellent podcast! My only question is, How the hell did we get the Cubbies to give up Ferris? Casey thinks the sky is the limit for him. Ontero looks like a can’t mis guys. Again, good stuff!
Uneventful flight to Phoenix. We have an AirB&B in Scottsdale with our son and his family. They brought his wife’s younger sister as a au pair for the kids. ;). My son and I plan to be at Camlback Ranch at 11:30 today.
We filled the gaps with Tucker and Diaz better than 4 draft choices would have. I think AF uses draft picks like trading cards. International signings easily make up for the lost draft signings and they’re usually cheaper despite the extra years required to see results.
“The Braves announced Tuesday that they’ve signed veteran left-hander Chris Sale to a one-year, $27MM contract extension with a $30MM club option for the 2028 season. (Atlanta is one of the few teams that publicly discloses contract terms itself.) The Wasserman client was slated to reach free agency this coming winter but will instead stick with Atlanta through at least 2027”.
As we all have noticed that AF usually gets the better end of every trade deal and especially when there is a pitcher involved from the other team. HOF AF!!!! LHP Adam Serwinowski we traded for from the Rays last year in the Feduccia is another prime example.
Adam Serwinowski is a 21-year-old left-handed pitching prospect for the Los Angeles Dodgers, currently wearing jersey #73 as a non-roster invitee to 2026 Spring Training. Acquired from the Cincinnati Reds in July 2025, he is recognized for a high-velocity fastball that has touched 101 mph and a high-spin sweeping slider. Player Profile Serwinowski is a highly projectable “power-armed” lefty known for a “funky” delivery and significant extension. Position: Starting Pitcher Physicals: 6’5″, 191 lbs Draft: 15th round (2022) by the Cincinnati Reds Current Status: Non-roster invitee to 2026 Dodgers Spring Training Prospect Ranking: Ranked as the #11 (FanGraphs) to #14 (Baseball America) prospect in the Dodgers system for 2026.
The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired left-handed pitching prospect Adam Serwinowski from the Cincinnati Reds on July 31, 2025, as part of a three-team trade that also included the Tampa Bay Rays. Trade Details In this deadline-day transaction, the Dodgers sent catcher Hunter Feduccia to the Rays and received Serwinowski along with two other players. Team Received Sent Los Angeles Dodgers LHP Adam Serwinowski (from CIN), RHP Paul Gervase (from TB), C Ben Rortvedt (from TB) C Hunter Feduccia (to TB) Tampa Bay Rays C Hunter Feduccia (from LAD), RHP Brian Van Belle (from CIN) RHP Zack Littell (to CIN), RHP Paul Gervase (to LAD), C Ben Rortvedt (to LAD) Cincinnati Reds RHP Zack Littell (from TB) LHP Adam Serwinowski (to LAD), RHP Brian Van Belle (to TB)
3:05 PM ET Guardians (88-74) Dodgers (93-69) SPGavin Williams R 0-0 .00 ERA SP Gavin Stone R 0-0 .00 ERA Confirmed Lineup SS Miguel Rojas R RF Kyle Tucker L C Will Smith R 1B F. Freeman L LF T. Hernandez R CF Andy Pages R 2B A. Freeland S 3B Nick Senzel R DH Keston Hiura R 80° Wind 3 mph Out
Awesome have fun.
Love Honeywell, hope he does great.
Yes it is early in spring training but the Dodgers won their first 3 games and are leading 7-3 in the 4th inning today. Teo and Pages are tearing it up. Each at .714 BA. Pages’ OPS is a ridiculous 1917. Smitty and Freddie are also cranking with EX hits. Are the dodgers starting out hot? Down at the station house, they call that a clue. This team is smokin!
You love to see it
We are having fun in Arizona , At the game today, but my computer took a crap and I hate posting on an I-pad. So I will catch you up on SATURDAY AFTER I GET BACK.
3:10 PM ET Dodgers (93-69) Diamondbacks (80-82) SP Roki Sasaki R 0-0 .00 ERA SP Zac Gallen R 0-0 .00 ERA Confirmed Lineup CF Hyeseong Kim L 3B S. Espinal R C D. Rushing L 2B A. Freeland S 1B Ryan Ward L DH Nick Senzel R RF James Tibbs L LF Zach Ehrhard R SS Noah Miller S 83° Wind 5 mph L-R
Yahoo sports headline talking about Comforto. ….Dodgers lose $17 million outfielder, World Series champion to Cubs in free agency… I believe LOSE is a bit of an exaggeration.
Star closer Edwin Diaz will take the mound against the Arizona Diamondbacks in a game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. First pitch is set for 12:10 p.m. Pacific Time.
My laptop crapped out so I have a few minutes on my phone. Stock down: Siani. – DFA candidate Call – where is he? Henriquez Stock up: Freeland Stone Pages Teo Rojas Espinal DePaula Miller
Haha As bad as he was, my son and I never hated him. Mostly felt for him. The season was like a long bad dream he coukdn’t shake. Seems like a helluva nice guy.
Siani is the postseason defensive replacement–no more no less Rumor has it we’re faking Call’s injury to give an NRI a chance
His defense is not outstanding.
Espinol?