One Win – Not a Big Deal!
The Dodgers went against Tarik Skubal, who is absolutely filthy and did manage to get two runs off of him, but they got two more off the bullpen and finally won a game. It’s only one game, but it was nice to change the teams’ fortunes. Miguel Vargas is slumping, and so is James Outman. The difference is that Vargas strikes out at a 20% clip while Outman is at nearly a 40% clip. The latter will not play in MLB. Add in Lux, CT3, Biggio, and Kike, and the bench is full of outs. As far as I am concerned, Lux, Biggio, and Outman need to be gone. I would be willing to trade Vargas, too. Miguel is going to be a solid player, but it may take another year.
I want Arozarena and Bellinger. I think Crochet is the best pitcher available – I am just not sure he will help that much THIS year, but in the future, he could be a horse. That is also the problem with Glasnow. He is nearing his career high in innings pitched, and while I think he is finally healthy, I think the Dodgers would like to give him three or four weeks off to keep him fresher at the end of the season. Dustin May is not likely to come back this year, and if he does, it will not be as a starter. The same is true with Tony Gonsolin. Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler will both be back by Mid-August. I expect Clayton to do what Clayton does, but we have no clue about Buehler. It sounds like Yamamoto will be back in August as well, and Graterol and Kelly are on that same path.
So, in summary, Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Kershaw will likely be back in Early-to-Mid-August. Bobby Miller could be back after the All-Star game or in a month… or never. Daniel Hudson was struggling with his release point last night too. Notice how he flies open as he throws the pitch? It looked just like Miller. This is tricky stuff – sometimes you can fix it in a day… and sometimes you never fix it. Gavin Stone is near his peak innings, so he is likely to need two or three weeks to rest… maybe in August or early September. Let’s see what Wrobleski does today. He has always pitched up to his competition. River Ryan will flow in here soon.
Remember that there’s a season in 2025 as well and potentially, these are the arms available:
- Glasnow
- Yamamoto
- Kershaw
- May
- Gonsolin
- Sheehan
- Knack
- Stone
- Wrobleski
- Frasso
- Ryan
- Hurt
- Miller
That’s a lot of pitching collateral. Now, Kershaw could decide to play in Texas his last season (I do believe that will happen), and I am assuming that Buehler will not be back, and neither will Paxton – still, that is an embarrassment of arms. I am not convinced the Dodgers need more starting pitching. I mean, they do today, but they likely won’t in August. I am not one to panic! Don’t shoot until you see the whites of their eyes! They are still up eight games!
We just have to sit and wait on the Cavalry, which includes Betts and Muncy. My idea is to send Lux and Outman to AAA or trade them. Cut Biggio. Kike and CT3 are perfect bench players because they can play anywhere. Heyward will be back as well. Go all in on Arozarena and Bellinger: L and R. Bellinger will be back in August. Use Vargas in the deal for one of them. If Bichette becomes available, make a play for him, but the Dodgers can win with Miggy Ro at SS and Kike spelling him. Kike hasn’t hit well (and that could change), but his defense has been outstanding.
- Ohtani DH
- Betts 2B
- Freeman 1B
- Teoscar RF
- Muncy 3B
- Smith C
- Bellinger CF
- Arozarena LF
- Rojas SS
Bench: Resurgent Austin Barnes, CT3 and Kike, along with Heyward and Hoese (Kody is a very good 3B).
Don’t panic! Let’s Roll!
Discussion (32)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Yesterday’s disastrous ninth inning loss can be attributed to an overworked bullpen, poor pitch selection calling to Keith, and a guy named Vanasco who doesn’t below on a MLB roster. AF missed on this one. A major trade or two has to be the cards.
From the Dodger’s Official Page:
Dodgers right-hander Dustin May, who was rehabbing after surgery last year to repair a torn flexor tendon in his right arm, will not pitch in 2024 following a procedure to repair an esophageal tear, the Dodgers confirmed on Saturday night.
“While at dinner on Wednesday, Dodger right-hander Dustin May experienced sudden pain in his esophagus and stomach that continued after he returned home,” the team said in a statement. “He contacted the medical staff and ultimately underwent successful surgery on his esophagus. May will not return to pitch for the Dodgers this season.”
ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to report May’s situation.
Honeywell is on the 40-man after they moved Yamamoto to the 60-day IL. He will most likely be activated for tomorrow’s game. Vanasco the leading candidate to be demoted. River Ryan has been assigned to the ADL. Arizona Development League. Kersh, 38 pitchers, 5 Ks, 1 walk and no runs in three innings of work.
With SD and Arizona both winning, the Dodger lead is 7 over both. They will either be 6-7 or 8 games in front after tomorrow’s game.
Roberts using Vanasco with a five run lead and a bullpen running on fumes made sense. When Phillips came on it was a three run lead with a runner on second. Hard to blame that on Roberts. Vanasco failed to do his job which forced Roberts, correctly I think, to turn to Phillips who failed to do his job. Roberts did his job. Tough loss to be sure but let’s put the blame where it belongs.
Nationals traded Hunter Harvey to the Royals. Marlins giving Jazz Chisholm reps at second. The shooter in todays attempted assassination was terminated. One spectator killed two wounded seriously. Pray for their families.
Dustin May Undergoes Esophageal Surgery, Won’t Pitch Again In 2024
one of the most disappointing losses in recent memory. oh well life goes on! wasted a rare hit from kiki. a nice outing from wrobreski, and a 5 RUN. lead. other than that, it was a pretty good day! maybe things were different if Phillips started the ninth!
Thank goodness the all star break starts tomorrow. We need a reset. Four days off is a great prescription.
All seems pretty silly when there’s people out there trying to assassinate presidential candidates.
You still have not provided any evidence whatsoever that I said what you said I did.
When you are in a hole, my advice is “STOP DIGGING!”
Can anyone remember an uglier loss?
As Vince Lombardi once said. What the hell is going on out there!!
Adding new players to our 40 man roster should not be an issue for the foreseeable future.
We can easily dump 15% of our current 40 man without any concerns.
Go Dodgers !!
The Dodgers have claimed right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. off waivers from the Pirates, as noted by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. L.A. will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move, though one has not yet been announced.
Ugliest loss of year! Blow 5 run lead in the 9th only to lose in extra innings!
Hopefully they can win series tomorrow.
Unbelievable loss today. I hope it can’t get any worse. Bullpen has been excellent all year but today was a travesty. Just wow.
You ok man?
R.I.P. Dave Loggins
Here is something you thought you’d never see in print—‘Barnes top hitter in bottom 6 of lineup today’
It is actually embarrassing to keep throwing Biggio out there.
Meanwhile, Kody Hoese is doing fantastic in AAA. I’m not sure, but if we waive Biggio, doesn’t that open up a 40 man spot for Hoese?
Robert jun. is heating up. OPS around .800 now.
I´d throw in Vargas and Outman in my above trade suggestion to get both him and Crochet.
Parades over prospects time for the Dodgers
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Saturday schedule
4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Jose Rodriguez) vs. Fort Wayne (Dylan Lesko)
5 p.m.: Tulsa (Kendall Williams) vs. Corpus Christi (Miguel Ullola)
5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Clayton Kershaw) vs. El Paso (Jackson Wolf)
7:05 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (TBA) at Stockton (Steven Echavarria)
Would theDodgers be willing to include Bobby Miller in a potential trade for either Crochet or Skubal (if available). Yes, Bobby is not on top of his game at the moment but he still got ace stuff.
Would a package of Miller, Rushing, Frasso, Knack, Hurt be enough for either Crochet or Skubal ?
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In my humble opinion after watching Gavin Lux for a little more than a half season and 200 plus at bats, he should be optioned to the minors to play every day and get his hitting issues resolved if possible. Right now his bat in the lineup is a detriment along with may others.. I realize all about last year’s injuries,but he isn’t helping the team offensively.Platooning him here isn’t helping either. This could also possibly get his trade value up. He has two remaining options. He , Outman and Vargas can automatically be optioned under team control. Kiki,Taylor,Heyward,,Biggio and Barnes could only be optioned with their player’s consent.
1:10 PM ET EARLY GAME
Dodgers (56-39)
Tigers (45-50)
SP Justin Wrobleski L
0-1 7.20 ERA
SP Keider Montero R
1-2 4.64 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
RF T. Hernandez R
1B F. Freeman L
CF Andy Pages R
LF Chris Taylor R
2B Gavin Lux L
SS E. Hernandez R
3B Cavan Biggio L
C A. Barnes R
84° Wind 4 mph In
George got into that one.
Mark, what about Pages?
I agree with you Mark. They need to send outman Vargas Lux in trades and get some pieces. Send Pages down to AAA. And cut Biggio. Keep kiki and taylor bring up Hoese so two outfielders and a infielder and two starters. Bear and Porcupine think my trades are crazy. Well I think Pham DeJong and Lopez from the whitesox would be getable and affordable. And either one of these outfielders would be fine as Dodgers Jessie Winker or Brett Rooker. And two pitchers as starters from this list would help Evoladi Flarethy Kendrick Skubal Kirkuchi and Gausman.
I mean I said this yesterday and they thought I was crazy. Really six new guys well yes because there’s about six guys that don’t need to be on this team and should be else where in Lux Pages Vargas Outman Biggio Heyward Taylor Keke.
Yours is a realistic hypothetical future batting line-up …except I doubt AF wants Belli back.
Muncy must return to the show no later than the 1st week of Sept., so he has enough time to get his swing-timing completely back before the playoffs. But that’s a flip of the coin, imo.
“River Ryan will flow in here soon.” 🙂
With the draft tomorrow I wanted to review AF’s past drafts of pitchers and how it has helped the Dodgers. This years draft is not considered very good and after pick 55 or so it weakens quite a bit. This is according to Keith Law. But, like with all future prospects anything can happen. And, it usually does.
Are the Dodgers good at drafting and developing pitching prospects?
Let’s review how many pitchers the Dodgers have drafted since 2016:
2016 -There were 15 pitchers drafted that signed. Eight have reached MLB. But only three have pitched for the Dodgers. That would be Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Mitch White. May and Gonsolin have had some success. May has had major arm injuries and I doubt he will pitch again. If he does it would be in a relief role. Gonsolin doesn’t look like a long term starter. He constantly is having health issues and rarely goes deep into games. He was excellent in 2022, but injuries disrupted his 2023 season. White was traded to Toronto. He was DFA’d this season byToronto and SF. He is currently in the Milwaukee minor system.
Five of the pitchers drafted, but traded, who made the majors with another team were Jordan Sheffield, Devin Smeltzer, Andre Scrubb, AJ Alexy, and Dean Kremer.
So, a little over half of the pitchers signed by the Dodgers reached MLB. That’s a very good percentage. None though could be projected for long term success. The two the Dodgers kept, Gonsolin and May, have had their moments but now seem to be breaking down physically. So the long term value to the Dodgers from this draft is fair to poor depending on what happens physically with Gonsolin and May.
2017 – There were 20 pitchers drafted that signed. Three have reached MLB with only Andre Jackson pitching for the Dodgers before being traded. Zach Pop and Bret de Geus were the other two pitchers. Both were used in trades. Pop and de Geus are pitching in MLB.
So, only three (15%) signed pitched in MLB. Their prospects for impactful MLB careers are probably nil.
As far as helping the Dodgers this draft has to be considered a failure.
2018 – There were 13 pitchers drafted that signed. Only 2nd round pick, Michael Grove, has pitched for the Dodgers. Currently, on the IL, Grove was becoming an effective BP piece. That’s it. One out of 13 (8%). I looked at the other twelve and five are still in the Dodger system. The rest have been traded or are in indy ball.
Another ineffective attempt to add to the Dodger pitching depth.
2019 – There were 17 pitchers drafted that signed. Of those, only Ryan Pepiot and Nick Robertson have pitched for the Dodgers. Pepiot was traded to Tampa Bay in the offseason. Robertson was traded to Boston at the trade deadline last year..
To be fair it needs to be noted that it usually takes 3-5 years for a pitching prospect to reach MLB if they have the talent to do so. It depends on if the player was in HS or college. Obviously, it’s the college player who has the advantage of reaching the majors sooner. So, to evaluate this and future draft classes this needs to be taken into consideration. And, with the 2020 minor league season wiped out by Covid it further delayed development of the pitchers in this draft class.
The top pick in the 2019 draft for the Dodgers was a HS Jimmy Lewis. He has bounced between Rancho and the ACL Dodgers his first three years. His development seems to be stalled. I don’t believe he has pitched in 2024.
Looking at others on the list I recognize several that Jeff has mentioned in the past and that are doing well in their development.
Again, it’s too early to give a fair grade. But, some of the 2019 draftees may be on the way in the near term.
2020 – The Dodgers drafted four pitchers that signed. This was the Covid draft and there were only five rounds with the Dodgers selecting six players. As noted above, there was no minor league season either.
So far, this draft has been a home run for AF and his staff. Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, and Landon Knack have already pitched for the Dodgers. So far, Miller looks like a future ace. Stone had success initially in 2023. But, eventually his stuff proved to be inadequate to get MLB hitters out. But, he has turned things around in 2024 and is a solid 2 / 3 in the rotation.
Considering the small draft class this has been by far the best draft pitching wise in the Friedman era. Bobby Miller alone with the 29th pick makes this an A. Add Gavin Stone and/or Landon Knack it will become an A+.
2021 – This class provided the Dodgers with 15 pitchers that signed. This was the first draft where the rounds were reduced to 20. The Dodgers had 19 picks (losing 2nd pick). So, nearly 80% of the draft went to pitching.
The first two picks, Maddux Bruns and Peter Heubeck, were HS hurlers. The remaining 13 were all from college to increase the odds of advancing to MLB faster. Several became relievers to make advancement even quicker. I felt AF might have thought that as unpredictable as relievers are from year to year it might be better (and, of course, cheaper) to develop your own.
So far that strategy has backfired. Only Emmet Sheehan and Justin Wrobleski, both starters, have pitched with the Dodgers. A couple have been traded already. But, several have had good seasons this year and are developing nicely. Jeff does a great job of keeping us informed on their progress and development. They could be on the staff in the next 2-3 years if they continue to improve.
Because this draft was so recent it got an incomplete grade. It could be AF’s deepest and best pitching draft. We should know more in 2-3 years. It shows a lot of promise!
2022 – Again only 19 picks for the Dodgers. They lost their first round selection. They drafted only five pitchers that signed. I feel that was to compensate for the 80% of the 2021 draft going for pitching
They waited until the 9th round to take a pitcher. None look like MLB material, but you never know. One happened to be Jerod Karros. He is at Tulsa already in his brief career. A high schooler, Payton Martin, was drafted in the 17th round and actually signed. I think Jeff has made mention of him recently.
I understand the reasoning for so few pitchers selected by the Dodgers. This looks like a minimal prospect class with almost zero chance of any MLB help. I give it a way too soon grade of D-.
2023 – With 21 selections, with nine pitchers drafted that signed. The first pitcher, Brady Smith, was a HS prospect taken in the 3rd round. The next six pitchers were college throwers. The Dodgers closed out the draft with two HS pitchers who both signed for overslot amounts. Only two are left handed. Again, it’s way too soon to make an assessment. This draft was much more balanced between position players and pitchers. The experts weren’t very impressed with the team’s selections. I think Jeff D had some other players he liked better at the top of the draft. But, as we have seen in the past the experts are experts until they’re not. And that goes for the prospect rankings as well.
To answer the question at the top of the article I would say at best, maybe. Between the 2016 and 2020 drafts only 6 pitchers that have pitched for and still with the organization out of 69 drafted and signed, that isn’t a very good percentage (9%). Of those six, two are on the 60 day IL and three were taken in the 2020 draft.
Being ignorant (and not the time to do the research) on what the MLB percentage is, maybe it is an acceptable percentage. If it is, it goes to show what a crapshoot the draft is and how hard it is to become a major league pitcher.
On a positive note, AF has traded for some top prospects Fasso (Toronto), Ryan (San Diego), Hurt (Miami), and Ferris (Cubs). At the start of the year they were the Dodgers 3,4,5,6. prospects. Very nice.
One more thing: Your bench has 5 guys but can only have 4. Would not keep both CT3 and Kike. As underperforming as Lux has been so far he has a higer average than both CT3 and Kike. Plus he is LH.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mark , you forgot Shohei in your collection of arms for 2025. With all those arms available the Dodgers could/should trade from strength and aquire maybe Crochet or Scubal (if available). Or go after 2 out of Flaherty/Kikuchi/Eovaldi who are all rentals and would not cost a kings ransom in prospects and wold not cloud the 2025 rotation possibilities.
I like your idea going for Bellinger and Aroarena.
Badly needed win yesterday vs maybe the best pitcher in baseball in 2024. Conficence builder and the lead back to 8.0 games.
Graterol pitched a scorless inning at the ACL yesterday. Good sign!
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!