Winning 106 games ain’t what it used to be. The Dodgers have been in the playoffs for nine consecutive years, but it was a shock to learn that before this run (which is not over), the longest stretch for consecutive years for the Dodgers to be in the playoffs was two! TWO. 2! Wow! What a run this has been. Yes, the Dodgers did not win the division, but it wasn’t for the lack of trying. Of course, there are idiots (actually, morons) who try and blame Dave Roberts for resting players. I have no control over a moron’s brain (maybe they don’t either). Gabe Kapler will be the NL Manager of the year… and rightfully so, but Dave Roberts should be #2 in the voting.
We also know that the Dodgers will play the Cardinals in the Wild Card Game where the loser of just one game, goes home. The Dodgers and their fans may not like that, but those are the rules we play under. They just need to make sure they win. If Scherzer happens to stumble, you will likely see Urias, Buehler, Jansen, Bickford, Vesia, Koufax, and Drysdale. In an “all-or-nothing” game, everybody has to be at the ready.
Clayton Kershaw will not be pitching and Max Muncy will not be playing on Wednesday. Clayton will likely not pitch during the playoffs and Muncy will miss some significant time. Who will take Muncy’s place? Two players: Albert Pujols and Matt Beaty – it’s a simple L-R platoon. It would be silly to weaken CF by moving Bellinger to 1B, in my opinion. Belli has not played 1B much this year, so there is a “rust” factor. The Dodgers ended the season by going 9-1 in the last 10 games. Unfortunately, they had to be perfect!
Anything can happen in a Wild Card Game. The leash is short and the hook has to be quick. There is no tomorrow. Max Muncy is a big loss, but it is what it is and players need to step up. Even with Muncy and Kershaw out, the Dodgers have no shortage of candidates to step up and be the “next man up!” It appeared that Max’s elbow was hyperextended when the runner ran into him. It could be a sprain or worse!
St. Louis will also have everyone at the ready. 40-year-old right-hander Adam Wainright will start the game. He pitched 206 innings with a 1.057 WHIP and 3.05 ERA. He had a 17-7 record and should not be underestimated. Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes, Jon Lester, Kwang Hyun Kim, Bob Gibson, and others will be at the ready if Wainright faulters. The Dodgers had a 3.01 team ERA while the Cardinals had a 3.98 team ERA. That’s almost a run higher. The Dodgers also scored 124 more runs than the Cards. So there is nearly a two-run differential between the two teams. That means nothing. This is just one game for the chance to advance. Anything can happen.
The Cardinals have three players player with an OPS over .800… (Arenado, O’Neill, Goldschmidt)… none over .900. The Dodgers have two players with an OPS over .900 (T-Turner and Seager), and five more with an OPS over .800 ( Muncy, Pollock, Smith, Betts, and J-Turner). The only problem is that Muncy will not play.
On paper, the Dodgers will beat the Cardinals like Rented Mules. The problem is that the game is not played on paper. It will be played in Dodger Stadium, where Wainright is 1-3 with a 4.30 ERA. On the other hand, Max Scherzer is 7-3 with a 2.63 ERA there. Add it all up and the Dodgers will win handily. Except, that it does not work that way. We have to play the game and in one game, you just throw out everything and it is a street fight!
Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Tyler O’Neill are dangerous hitters. Nolan has been exactly what I thought he would be away from Coors. He has the power (31 HR), but his .255 BA and .312 OB% are not superstar status. Compare that to Justin Turner who hit .278 with a .361 OB%. Nolan may, however, be the best defensive 3B in baseball.
Will Smith is among the best catchers in baseball, but Yadier Molina could be the best for one game. You have to watch Yadi! Speaking of catchers, Yasmani Grandal was injured much of the year and had 279 AB’s during which he walked 87 times and struck out 82 times. He has 23 HR and 62 RBI and … get this, he hit .240 with a .420 OB%! WOW, but I digress! I am happy with Will Smith.
We can hash and re-hash and cuss and dis-cuss all of this, but it all boils down to “Boy, I sure hope the Dodgers win on Wednesday!”
Discussion (24)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Karnak the magnificent says ALL QUESTIONS SHALL BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ROOBERTS POSTS THE LINEUP. At least that is what he told me……
If the umpire had correctly marked that swing of Ruf the Dodgers are division champions and Kenley had finished with 39 SV in 43 SVO only 4 BS, the 39 SV would have allowed him to be the champion in saved games of the NL tied with Melancon, I would also have finished with: 4W-3L,39 SV and 1.82 ERA, which would have made him a stronger candidate for reliever of the year.
Yes you have lost your mind….there is no chance Belli is hitting 4th and Turner 7th. I can’t even justify a BA of 165 being in any postseason lineup. There are better options because we are deep and we need to go with our best to win this game. BTW if you can’t see the forest thru the trees….roberts decision to rest our key players until the final couple of weeks did cost us the division title!!
OK, since many of you did not like my idea to bat Cody Bellinger #4, I thought I would let you stew on it and then give you my rationale.
How have pitchers been getting Cody out since his shoulder issues and surgery?
Answer: High Heat.
Waino doesn’t have high heat and Cody can track a curve. Since Muncy is out, I put him #4 to break up the RH batters. Cody has a great eye still and I think hitting him #4 would do two things:
1. Show him that they have confidence in him and hitting is at least 50% confidence; and
2. I think he would hit Wainright.
Spread the outs around. I considered Beaty at #4, but Belli has experience in that slot. At any rate, Belli has to say in CF and Beaty HAS to play 1B in the Wild Cardinals game.
If I were Doc, I would start at Catcher whoever Max wants!
Finally, I have read the case against CERA and find it rife with circular thinking.
If Corey leaves, what would you be willing to give, in a trade, to Cleveland for the 3b José Ramírez ???
Assuming there is a DH, Line Up 2022:
SS T.T.
RF Betts
CF Bellinger (healthy)
3B Ramírez (switch hitters)
DH J. Turner
1B Muncy
C Smith (500AB/30HR)
LF Pollock
2B Lux (Next Chase Utley,
it’s a clone )
my notes on Joe West – Joe West – a lazy, inconsistent A-hole. He frequently looks inconvenienced when he has to lift his arm to call a strike. He seems to enjoy missing pitches, especially low fastballs, just to piss off the players and get into a confrontation. Super tight early and may loosen up late if pitcher is consistent. Hates rookies. Big chip on his shoulder. He’s what’s wrong with umpires.
From the Chicago Tribune – “West, who has umpired in a record 43 seasons since 1976 and in 51 ballparks, is renowned for having been in the middle of more controversies than any umpire in modern history. He also doubles as a country singer known as “Cowboy Joe” and once was a featured performer at Gilley’s in Houston, where his reviews were considerably better than the ones he has received from players, managers and fans at those 51 parks.”
Geez why do we get this guy?
In a game that could come down to a blown call by the plate umpire, the NL WC game gets Cowboy Joe West behind the plate. How lucky do you feel?
B&P says he likes to present facts to back his position. He also wrote in a response to Bear…”it’s overthinking to replace Smith with Barnes just because of two bad games, one at Coors where Scherzer never pitches well. In his latest game, Scherzer had no control / command. That had zero to do with who was behind the dish.” What facts? That is sheer opinion/supposition/conjecture. There is not a single fact that says that Scherzer would not have pitched better with Barnes behind the dish in the two games he mentions. Of course there is no fact that says he would have. It is only a guess.
But if you are looking for facts with Scherzer on the mound:
Barnes – 33.2 IP, 1.34 ERA, 5 doubles, 1 HR, 45K/4 BB, .160/.194/.227/.420
Smith – 34.2 IP, 2.60 ERA, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 44K/4 BB, .215/.243/.356/.598
Considering his two catchers in Washington, Yan Gomes and Alex Avila, the best that Max has pitched all year has been with Barnes behind the dish.
On September 6, Max faced St. Louis and pitched 8 innings allowing 6 hits, 1 unearned run, with 13 K and no BB. Barnes was his catcher that game. He followed that up with perhaps his best pitched game as a Dodger going 8.0 IP against the Padres allowing 1 hit and registering 9 Ks. Smith caught that game. Of course the Pads had given up at that point.
Offensively, since the beginning of September:
Smith – .217/.322/.406/.728
Barnes – .219/.242/.344/.586
Last 15 games:
Smith – .125/.179/.208/.387
Barnes – .200/.238/.250/.488
Neither one is lighting it up offensively. I also have zero issues with saying that Smith presents a much higher ceiling offensively.
Against Wainright, Smith is 0-3, while Barnes is 1-2.
Barnes is considered a better framer, while Smith has a better CS%.
Now if all goes to plan, Scherzer will go 7 or 8, and KJ will be asked to close. There really is stark differences here.
Barnes – 23 IP, 0.00 ERA, 28K/6 BB. 080/.148/.093/.241
Smith – 54.1 IP, 2.15 ERA, 58K/30 BB, .186/.318/.298/.616
One other consideration. This is a must win game. In the 2020 WS, all four wins were with Austin Barnes as the catcher. Fortunately there was a DH. There is no such consideration for this year’s winner take all Wild Card game.
If you think Smith should be the catcher, that is an opinion. If you think Barnes should be the catcher, that is also an opinion, but one that the facts seem to support more if you believe that the primary role of the catcher is to receive the pitcher. I will not judge Doc or the front office whoever they choose to be the catcher. As a fan, I am comfortable with either catcher in a must win game. But as for my opinion, in a must win game, I would want Barnes behind the dish.
Any odds on % Raider fans vs % Chargers fans tonight at Sofi Stadium??
I’ll guess 65-35% Raiders
Mets dump Rojas as manager. His option was declined. Tingler will be gone in SD also.
I know it’s very tempting to play Albert against the Cardinals for sentimental reasons. But, we need to win one single ballgame against the Cardinals on Wednesday. The facts are Beaty hits righties better than lefties and Albert hits lefties better than righties. Beaty is 6 – 17 .352 with 2 homers in Sept and Albert is 6-17 with 2 homers in Sept.
As far as defense goes. I think they’re about the same and the stats bear favor towards Beaty. Pujols will catch everything hit right at him, but he’s stiff and doesn’t have much range or mobility around the bag. Beaty might mess one up, but better range and mobility helps his cause.
It’s best to platoon them.
I keep reading Beaty is hot. He’s hit .353 in 19 plate appearances in the last month. Corey Seager is hot. He’s hitting .380 in his last 104 plate appearances. I realize with Muncy out we will need Beaty but no way do I expect him to continue hitting .350 for his next 19 at bats.
We have once again been weakened by more injuries. Kershaw’s out and Muncy is out. Taylor’s bat all but disappeared over a month ago, Bellinger’s a year ago. Betts is hitting .163 over his last 56 PA’s. And yet we are favored to win the Championship. How can that be? The money refuses to pick anybody else, that’s why. Even with all that has happened to this team, the Dodgers are still picked to win it. How lucky are we to have this team to root for?
Although in the final part of the season they improved in that I was very concerned about the pitchers’ problems with retaining runners at first base, we constantly saw how a BB or a single easily became a double and a game with few runs scored. That could be the key to losing this, they have some very fast players, but as I said, it seems that in recent times the pitchers have improved in that aspect because I no longer have so many robberies of bases, the teams knew there was a deficiency and they were all running on the bases and as I said for a while towards that it disappeared, even the Padres they managed to control it, I remember that they beat us some games and they could no longer do it in the last series.
One last thing, I am not putting Lux in the outfield in a game that starts at that time of day. They need their most experienced and best fielders on the field for this one, so yeah, here is my lineup….I will let DR decide where they hit, C Barnes, reason is simple, Scherzer has a better ERA with him behind the plate and Smith does not handle the off speed stuff. 1B, Tio Albert, Much better defensively than Beatty, also hits RH off speed pitchers well. Not so much the hard stuff. 2B Turner, SS Seager, 3B, Turner. LF Pollock, why change? The guy is a hitter and decent on defense. CF Bellinger, you need the defense against these guys. RF Betts. Bench, Smith, Lux, Beaty and a call up, most likely McKinstry. All hands on deck in the pen. Score early and let Mad Max do the rest. One other thing for you Cody detractors. Jackie Bradley Jr. had a worse season than Bellinger. .163 Avg. 6 HR’s, 29 RBI’s in 387 at bats. Cody .165 Avg. 10 HR’s 39 RBI’s in 315 at bats. Shows what I know, I thought Bradley would be a good pickup for any team. I was very encouraged when Cody got a hit going to left field yesterday.
I think the key to the game will be who has the better offensive game between Betts and Edman. Those 2 are the table setters and both can steal a base.
With baseball anything can happen.
IMO these 2 teams are among the top 3 teams in the NL. It’s too bad one of them is going to be ousted after only 1 game.
This could ultimately end up being one of the most frustrating Los Angeles Dodgers seasons ever, but we will see. The worst one, in my opinion, was 1962, when we had what I think was our greatest team ever, but we lost Sandy Koufax for the last two months with a circulation problem in his finger, and when he came back late in September, he was not the same. We would have won the division easily. We lost our last three games at home to St. Louis, not scoring runs, for some reason, and we ended up tied with the Giants. Then we rallied to win game two of the playoffs, then had a 4-2 lead going into the ninth in game three,and lost that, and the Giants won the pennant.
There have been other very disappointing seasons; I think of 1973, when we blew something like a ten game lead to the Reds.. Before that, 1971, when we were eight games behind the GIants, somehow swept two series with them, cut it to one game with 23 to play, and then never gained that extra game. 1980, when we won three must win games against the Astros, then needed one more, and pitched Dave Goltz instead of Fernando, and lost badly. Was it 1985 when we led the Cardinals 2-0 in the playoffs, and lost the last three? 1991, when we had a very good team, but the Braves were one game better, and there was no Wild Card then, so no postseason for us.
Injuries are part of the game, they say, but we have had virtually every key player on our team injured this year, and often out for a month or two. And of course Bauer, who was not injured, but hasn’t pitched for three months. And now in the last game, we lose Muncy. We have won 106 games, despite the injuries and suspension, and we end up as a wild card team, because the Giants have their greatest season ever. They’ve won three titles in the last twenty years, and we have the one last year. If they win this one, it will be even more upsetting.
We certainly could beat the Cardinals in one game, but only if Scherzer regains his form. After that, playoff series where we are the road team, and where our starting staff is going to really be stretched. Can we score enough runs, playing Bellinger, who is hitting .160? Yes, we scored a lot of runs yesterday, but playoffs are far different, facing everybody’s best pitchers and complete bullpen. I don’t think that we are likely to get through this, but we are still the favorites to win the pennant, although now up to 2-1, from the 1.5-1 last week. Giants are second at around 2.2-1. The Giants have done it all year, know they can win, find ways to win, and have home field. We have the best starting three pitchers, but only one starter after that, who did not do well in the playoffs last year. We have a lineup which I think is going to have trouble scoring runs against the other team’s best pitchers. But we are playing very well, so maybe we’ll somehow pull this off on class.
What it looks like, is the culmination of an ill-fated season for us, which we have had more of, than we have had glorious endings, in the last 30 years. If we lose the wild card game, we will become the stuff of baseball lore, 106 wins and no playoff wins. If the SF Giants win the championship, it will be four, which will probably take us another fifty years to catch them. A lot of missed opportunities for us in the recent years, and this of course feels like another one, but I know that we will play hard, and we have talent.
Good morning. Losing Muncy is a blow and who ever takes his place is going to have to step up. Not only for the wild card, but if they win that, the division series. A couple of things about the game. It will be broadcast on TBS. Start time is 5:10 Pacific time. Which means, they are going to have to deal with the creeping shadows on the field and the right fielder, if it is a bright day, is going to be dealing with the glare. Scherzer is 2-0 against St. Louis this season. He has allowed 1 unearned run in 14 innings. He goes 7 with no runs given up and I like the Dodgers chances. But, he is going to have to be vintage Scherzer because the Cardinals have some pop in that lineup. Every one talks about O’Neill, but Tucker Carlson has been one of their hotter hitters lately. Do not go to sleep on these guys. And they have decent speed on the bases. Pitchers are going to have to watch the runners. Poll on MLBTR has the Giants winning the World Series so far. But I do not think polls are always accurate. Not going to predict a lineup. Another thing, Scherzer will be on 6 days rest.
Here’s why I DO NOT move Bellinger for the Wild Cardinals Game:
1. He is arguably the best CF’er in baseball (defensively).
2. He may be able to play 1B in his sleep, but Belli has only played 4 games there this year, and reps are paramount. He has 2 errors in those 4 games.
3. Chris Taylor, while a decent CF’er is not great.
4. Wainright is a RHP and Matt Beaty is a LHB… a HOT LHB!
5. Matt Beaty was 3-3 yesterday. He is hitting .500 in his last 7 games/.353 in his last 15 and .371 in his last 30 games.
6. Chris Taylor is a RHH who is hitting worse than Bellinger. .154 in his last 7 games/.167 in his last 15 games/.129 in hs last 30 games. Bellinger is better than that.
7. You need as many LHH as possible against Waino.
If Bellinger goes to 1B, you weaken the defense. If Taylor plays, you weaken the offense.
Lineup:
1. Betts RF
2. Seager SS
3. T-Turner 2B
4. Bellinger CF (to keep L-R balance)
5. Pollock LF
6. Beaty 1B
7. J-Turner 3B
8. Smith C
And the doom and gloom begins…
No toss-up here. You have a team with one good streak and a 40 year old on the bump who would be the number 4 starter on our staff against a team that won 106 games in an injury marred season with a possible Cy Young winner on the mound at home in the the largest, loudest baseball stadium on earth.
Sorry guys, but the Dodgers are going to embarrass the Cardinals in a do or die game with a battle tested team full of guys that have long post-season resumes with two of the hottest hitters on the planet in TT and Seags. Betts will be the next Dodger to go into beast mode now and Pollock, JT and Smith will round out the stacked lineup.
The only worry I have is Doc making out the lineup card with Pujols in there against his old team. Get him a pinch hitting appearance with less than two outs and a runner on and maybe keep him in the game afterwards.
I liked CT3’s ABs yesterday and would reward him with the starting spot in CF. Belli goes to 1B hoping for some magic.
Betts RF
T Turner 2B
Seager SS
J Turner 3B
AJ Pollock LF
Will Smith C
Belli 1B
CT3 CF
Wainwright knows how to pitch to that lineup. We won’t all of sudden learn how to hit curve balls. I doubt we score a lot of runs. I doubt they do either. Our defense needs to be flawless. And what are the odds of that?
Plate discipline. We have a reputation for it but we’ve seen many drift out of the strike zone. Who’s behind the plate? How many strike 3’s will be called on balls out of the strike zone? From what I’ve seen all year I say the over/under on that probability is 5. Be prepared for it. Protect the edges. It’s better to pop out than be called out. A pop fly can find grass. Strike 3 called finds nothing.
The Dodgers will be favored because the Dodgers are always favored. That’s a good lineup. 6 right handed hitters? Not very Dodger-like.
Scherzer has looked fatigued. The last 2 games he’s been clobbered to the tune of a .992 OPS. His ERA jumped from 2.08 to 2.46. With 30 starts that kind of movement is hard to do.
Any predictions?
106 wins and it comes down to a one game play in . Makes the regular season kind of overrated .
Lets hope Max has his A game going or it could be winter soon. Cards have nothing to lose . Dangerous team with an true ace on the hill.The loss of Muncy hurts and comes at the most inopportune time. But as was said this is the way the Dodgers season has been going from the start. Tons of injuries and players having subpar seasons. To still win 106 games in a tough division shows what talent the Dodgers have.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!
Of course Max Muncy gets injured right before the playoffs. This is the 2021 Dodger’s season where everyone gets injured. The bright side is that we scored 10 runs yesterday regardless. If the Dodgers wanted to play against Waino’s splits, they’ll have Lux in CF and Belli at 1B.
Scherzer vs Wainwright is going to be a great matchup. Either pitcher is capable of taking over a ballgame. I like our chances at home with our lineup in beast mode right now.
I’ve looked around for more info on Muncy’s injury and can’t find a definitive update. It seems they expect him out for the Wild Card game as well as the Division Series right now. Let’s hope for a miracle that Lux stays hot and Belli and CT3 get going and start looking like their normal selves. The Cardinal vs the Dodgers is a classic matchup in this wild card game and the Red Sox vs the Yankees is even more monumental. This is going to be fun.
Without looking too far ahead, a Giants vs Dodgers post-season series is a special treat. I’m going to savor it, clear my schedule and hopefully enjoy it thoroughly. I wish they would fix the Division Series by moving it to a best of 7 format. It looks like the pitching is going to favor the good guys. We’ll be sending out 3 Cy Young hopefuls in the first 3 games of the Giants series with Urias, Bueller, Scherzer all lined up with Scherzer getting a couple of home games with the Wild Card and game 3 of the DS.
The Dodgers did an admirable job fighting until the end of the season winning 7 straight on the way to a record 106 wins for a Wild Card team. A congratulations is in order for a team that didn’t show any quit. Thank you Dodgers for a wonderful, entertaining season full of overcoming adversity. Let’s hope it last longer than 1 more game.
I’ll say it again. Some fans are nervous about facing Wainwright and the Cardinals in a one game winner take all scenario. But, I would much rather be a Dodgers’ fan than having to face Scherzer and the Dodgers in their own yard as a Cards fan.
It should be a rough couple of days on this site with two off days before this epic matchup between two classic teams with two classic pitchers. If you feel like Chicken little, now’s the time to read a short novel to keep your mind off the doom and gloom. I’d like to recommend Catcher in the Rye for you to keep your mind off your negative thoughts. It mind even be cathartic for you to see things from a different perspective.
Go Blue!
I disagree Taylor is the new everyday CF and Bellinger at 1B. Belly can play 1B in his sleep and they are going to have to hope he finds it in the playoffs. Beaty’s job is LH pinch hitter off the bench.
Betts RF R
Seager SS L
T. Turner 2B R
J. Turner 3B R
Pollock LF R
Smith C R
Bellinger 1B L
Taylor CF R
For one day. Can we hit a curveball?