MY RANDOM THOUGHTS ON THE WINTER MEETINGS ARE OVER NOW WHAT?

●Mercifully, the winter meetings are over. Lot’s of questions unanswered, but the main one for me is: Now what? As I wrote few weeks back, keep her steady as she goes. Also, remember, it was December 21, 2018, when the Dodgers surprised us with the Kyle Farmer trade. There’s lots of time between now and the start of spring training.

● It looks like Pedro Moura, of the Athletic, was correct as he was one of the few reporters (perhaps only one) that expected the Dodgers to stand pat.

●Admittedly, I was disappointed that the Dodgers didn’t swing a big deal. It felt as if though all of my friends were receiving bikes for Christmas, while I got the underwear, socks and orange in my stocking. That said, when I look at the insane contracts handed out last week to the top four free agents, I’m very grateful the Dodgers did not jump in at those prices.

●Some have argued that signing a free agent costs you nothing but money. I don’t buy that argument. Once a top free agent is signed, the signing team will, at some point, have to pare down some salaries and non-tender some good players. Look at the Angels, they gave away Will Wilson, their top draft choice from last year, just to have the Giants take on the Zack Cozart salary. I understand the argument that, today, Anthony Rendon is worth a lot more than Will Wilson. However, there is more to it than just that. You also have to factor in the ability to sign your own players when the time comes. When 15% of your salary outlay is to one player, or 30-40% is to 3 or 4 players, there will come a time that you have to pay the piper. During the entire life of that huge contract, it will require some very creative roster construction around the edges. Moreover, what happens when Buehler, Bellinger, Seager and the like approach free agency. Will you be able to keep them, as long as you are anchored down with large salaries.

●There is also the luxury tax(CBT) to consider. The thresholds for the 2020 season, assessed by the average annual value of a player’s contract, are: First Tier: $208 million; Second Tier: $228 million and Third Tier: $248 million. The penalties are a bit convoluted but fairly straightforward. Teams who exceed the limit for the first time pay 20% rate on every dollar spent over the amount. Teams who exceed the limit two years in a row pay a 30% tax and teams who do so three or more years in a row are pay a 50% tax. The Yankees are in that situation. As of December 12, 2019, they had $261.5 million in payroll entering the 2020 season. Right now, they’re right up against the third-tier of the penalties. Even if they stay below that area, which they’re trying to do, the Yankees will certainly be a repeat offender. There’s no way to avoid it. So, here is what their penalties will be: they’ll pay a 30% tax on every dollar over $208 million, a 42% tax on every dollar over $228 million, and about $75.00 or so for every dollar over $248 million. I’ll let AC figure out what that means in real dollars, but it certainly isn’t chump change. As a result, the Yankees are looking to unload J. A. Happ, a pitcher who has won 59 games over the past 4 years. In order to trade him, they will probably have to attach a very good prospect to him to be able to get another team to bite. In the past 4 years, Gerrit Cole has 54 victories. Mind you, before you get all gingered up, I am not arguing that Happ is a better pitcher than Cole, he is not. I am just pointing out that signing a free agent, doesn’t happen in a vacuum and it can come with additional cost, sometimes substantial, attached.

●I tire of the articles on who the “winners and losers” were during the winter meetings. I don’t even know what that means. A few years ago, pundits were writing that the Padres were the big winners of the off-season, because of the Matt Kemp trade, among others. A year later, it was the Diamondbacks who were the winners because they signed Zack Greinke and acquired Shelby Miller. I’m sure the fans of those teams are still raising their glasses high to their great winter meeting victories.

●Well, the Yimi Garcia era has ended as he has moved on the Marlins. I wish him well In Miami. Question is, who would you rather have, Blake Treinen or Yimi Garcia? There’s question marks attached to both, but, I would rather take my chance with Treinen.

●Is Anthony Rendon that much better than Justin Turner? In all likelihood, JT will not have the same success over the next 7 years as AR will. However, was last year a foreboding of things to come for JT, or merely an outlier due to injuries? I’m looking for a bounce back year from him next year.

●It’s said that Rendon wasn’t comfortable with the Hollywood lifestyle. Well good luck with the Real Housewives of Orange County lifestyle.

●Is there any chance remaining that the Dodgers can add a pitcher to the rotation? Of the free agents still on the market, who would you rather have wearing the Dodger Blue for the next 3 years? Ryu or Bumgarner? Why? If the goal is solely to win the WS, I would probably pick Bumgarner. Personally, I think he will be the better pitcher for the next 3 years. However, because I hate the Giants so much, the thought of him in a Dodger uniform conjures up memories of Juan Marichal being a Dodger and makes me want to puke. I could never stomach that thought.

●If a pitcher could be obtained by trade, who would you rather the Dodgers acquired, Matthew Boyd or Corey Kluber? Are there others, realistically available, who you would want?

●William posted yesterday: “I think that an ownership which is making more profits than any baseball franchise, except possibly for the Yankees, should be out there with them trying everything reasonable to put together the best team in baseball. The Dodgers do not do that, at least in my opinion.” If the Dodger front office does not care about winning, how do you explain the fact that the Dodgers have as many wins as they do over the Friedman era? Please understand, I do not intend this as a personal attack on William, as he appears to be a very intelligent poster. Moreover, I get his frustration.

●He also said: “You cannot consistently fail to land top free agents, or consistently pass on anyone at the trade deadline who is more than a three-month rental, and somehow expect to win titles, and then make excuses every time you fail. Well, you can, and they do.” Which player could the Dodgers have acquired by trade or signed as a free agent in the past 5 years that would have guaranteed that they would have won the World Series that year? Also, does the fact that the Dodgers have routinely acquired the best player or pitcher available at the trade deadline not account for anything? Does it matter that the players they acquire are only 3 month rentals, when the objective is to win the WS that year?

●If the Dodger front office does not care about winning the world series, how do you explain the fact that the Dodgers were one game away from winning it all in 2017? Or, that they were just 7-8 feet of a Will Smith drive to right center away from eliminating the eventual WS champs?

●If the Dodgers front office is cheap and won’t spend, how do you explain them signing Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner?

●When Kenley Jansen was the top reliever on the open market, were the Dodgers wrong for signing him? If so, why? Did you truly know that he would regress the way he has? If you did, what gave you that indication? Wouldn’t it have been ironic if Jansen had signed with the Nationals for the higher contract, as rumored, and he gave up a game winning home-run to Will Smith in the 9th inning of the 5th game this year.

●Were the Dodgers wrong for extending Clayton Kershaw’s contract when he opted out? The year before he became a free agent, I had floated the idea of trading him to Houston for Alex Bregman, Lance McCullers, Chris Devenski and Kyle Tucker. That was before Bregman became the player he is today. It was my thought that Kershaw could be replaced for a much less expensive pitcher and that Bregman could take JT’s place and the Dodgers wouldn’t have to resign him. I’m glad they resigned Kershaw, as I believe that there are certain players who need to have their careers begin and end with the same team. Kershaw is one of those players. He needs to go into the Hall of fame wearing a Dodger Blue cap.

●Is it required that the Dodgers sign every top free agent? Let’s assume, for example, that the Dodgers had signed Bryce Harper. How would that have changed the complexion of the rest of the team? Certainly they would not have signed AJ Pollack. Perhaps Belli would be the permanent 1 st baseman. Would he have had the same season playing 1st ? Maybe no MVP – what about Muncy? Would he have been the regular 2nd baseman. Would the team chemistry been the same?

●I wish just once that the recipients of the multi-year, mega million dollar contracts, would raise their voice for the plight of the minor league players and the abysmal salaries they get paid. I don’t think that’s ever going to happen though.

●Love him or hate him, Scott Boras had a very good week. I calculate that he made in the neighborhood of $35,000,000.00 to $55,000,000.00 in commissions last week. And, he isn’t finished yet. There’s a very good chance that Rendon and his family can now move into the same gated community in Orange County that Boras lives in.

●When looking at bad contracts, we typically look at those big contracts that didn’t work out so well. Josh Hamilton, Barry Zito, Barry Bonilla or Albert Pujols come to mind. The other day I read an argument that the worse contract in baseball belongs to Juan Soto. Think about it. Soto hit .283/.401/.548 with 32 doubles, 34 homers, 110 RBIs and 110 runs. He hit five postseason home runs, three of them in the World Series. He was one of the driving forces behind the Nationals winning their first-ever World Series, the first for D.C. in almost 100 years. He was paid $578,000 for his efforts. How much was he worth? Probably $30 million or more. Same could be said for Bellinger. Imagine if Stanton had the same year as Soto or Bellinger, no one would be whining that he was being overpaid. The baseball salary structure is flawed.

●I had a dental appointment on Friday, with a dentist in Menifee, California, the community where I work. I chose this dentist because of his name, Frank Pastore, as I remembered the MLB pitcher of the same name. I asked Dr. Pastore, if he gets asked about the name a lot because of the former MLB pitcher with the Reds, named Frank Pastore. Turns out that Dr. Pastore is his son. After finishing his baseball career(primarily due to injuries suffered after being hit by a line drive off the bat of Steve Sax), Frank Pastore, Sr., became a Christian and was the host of one of the most popular Christian radio programs on Glendale based KKLA. He died in November 2012, as a result of injuries suffered in a motorcycle/car accident. Ironically enough, on the day of his death, Frank Pastore had told his audience “Look, you guys know I ride a motorcycle, right?” “At any minute I could be spread all over the 210.” Three hours later a car struck him as he rode his motorcycle on the 210 between Glendale and his home in Upland. I have a bit of dental work to be done, so over the next several months, I will be asking him about the stories his father told him of his days with the Cincinnati Reds and the remnants of the “Big Red Machine.”