Much Too Early Prediction Monday
Let’s assume that the Dodgers make no more changes to their roster. That’s not likely, but for the purposes of this exercise, we’ll make it so. These are my predictions for how the players presently on the 40 man roster will perform next year: Pitchers: W L ERA IP H R BB SO SV WHIP Scott Alexander 2 3 4.12 53 48 17 26 48 1 1.235 Pedro Baez
Let’s assume that the Dodgers make no more changes to their roster. That’s not likely, but for the purposes of this exercise, we’ll make it so. These are my predictions for how the players presently on the 40 man roster will perform next year:
Pitchers: W L ERA IP H R BB SO SV WHIP
Scott Alexander 2 3 4.12 53 48 17 26 48 1 1.235
Pedro Baez 6 3 2.90 73 54 24 25 75 1 0.980
Walker Buehler 17 6 2.87 212 176 84 42 226 0 1.028
JT Chargois Spends the year in the minors
Caleb Ferguson 6 3 2.97 64 54 19 31 78 0 1.320
Dylan Floro Spends the year in the minors
Tony Gonsolin 7 4 3.37 89 71 30 21 92 2 1.034
Victor Gonzalez 1 2 4.35 23 24 10 10 23 0 1.478
Kenley Jansen 4 1 3.09 71 54 22 15 87 33 0.972
Joe Kelly 3 5 4.06 64 48 26 26 65 0 1.156
Clayton Kershaw 14 7 3.17 189 153 60 46 194 0 1.052
Adam Kolarek 1 1 2.12 33 22 7 7 29 0 0.879
Kenta Maeda 10 9 4.09 164 143 67 49 174 0 1.171
Dustin May 10 5 3.39 153 141 52 29 169 0 1.111
Casey Sadler Spends the year in the minors
Dennis Santana Spends the year in the minors
Josh Sborz Spends the year in the minors
Ross Stripling 9 5 3.33 123 116 41 31 128 0 1.195
Blake Treinen 0 2 2.46 61 44 15 15 87 10 0.967
Julio Urias 11 7 3.73 177 153 66 38 183 0 1.079
Mitchell White Spends the year in the minors
Catchers: AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB SO BA OPS
Austin Barnes 184 30 41 13 1 8 34 3 47 .223 .653
Keibert Ruiz Spends the year in the minors
Will Smith 382 68 91 15 2 18 59 4 71 .254 .811
Infielders:
Matt Beaty 321 52 89 22 0 15 80 1 42 .277 .822
Enrique Hernandez 450 60 106 21 2 18 66 8 102 .236 .725
Gavin Lux 249 51 77 18 3 11 61 5 49 .309 .850
Zach McKinstry 54 13 15 6 0 4 20 1 20 .278 .720
Max Muncy 590 103 165 32 0 31 101 2 110 .279 .910
Edwin Rios 125 21 36 11 0 12 48 0 56 .288 .862
Corey Seager 601 98 191 50 2 24 96 3 112 .318 .915
Justin Turner 570 86 167 33 0 28 98 0 93 .292 .836
Tyler White Spends the year in the minors
Outfielders:
Cody Bellinger 630 124 198 40 13 43 122 23 112 .315 1.063
Kyle Garlick 62 17 18 9 0 8 17 0 26 .290 .798
Joc Pederson 511 88 129 26 1 31 80 3 118 .252 .987
DJ Peters 50 10 14 3 0 5 14 0 24 .288 .828
A.J. Pollock 426 61 121 19 0 22 78 0 121 .284 .802
Chris Taylor 430 59 115 21 2 17 62 3 127 .267 .821
Alex Verdugo 481 66 145 28 3 18 71 3 119 .299 .821
Some Minor League Players who may contribute or are September call-ups:
W L ERA IP H R BB SO SV WHIP
Josiah Gray 0 0 3.33 12 8 4 3 14 0 0.917
Marshall Kasowski 0 0 1.43 7 4 1 3 10 0 1.000
Casey Crosby 0 1 3.89 18 10 7 14 22 0 1.333
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB SO BA OPS
Jeter Downs 12 3 4 1 0 1 5 0 5 .333 .700
Because of the constraints of time, I didn’t accurately determine what the batting average and OPS would be for the position players. I did have to get some work done this weekend.
I do not think there’s a snowball’s chance on a So. California summer’s day, that the 40 man roster will not change between now and the beginning of Spring Training. It will be different. How different, I have no idea.
Now it’s your turn. Let’s take a break from bashing the front office and speculating as to whom the Dodgers will trade for, etc, and have a Monday fun day. Take some risks with your predictions, as “the points don’t matter and every prediction is made up.” Despite that, there will be a prize of some sort for those who’s predictions most often come the closest to what actually happens. There will also be a very special prize for that person who remembers at the end of next season that we did this today.
One last thing: shortly after reading that Kluber was traded to the Rangers, I was listening to a Traffic album on my iMusic and, with apologies to Jim Capaldi and Stevie Winwood, I revised the “Dear Mr. Fantasy” lyrics as follows:
Dear Mr. Friedman make us a trade
Something to make us all happy
Do anything, take us out of this gloom
Trade for Lindor, buy a starter, but make it snappy
You are the one who can make us all laugh
But doing nothing will bring the tears and jeers
Please don’t say you will, if you don’t care to spend
Cause we have been patient for all these years
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Discussion (98)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I trust AF to make the right decision with the prospects. So far he’s dealt away the the right prospects. Lindor and Clevinger are two actual star player. There’s a lot of COULD BE with prospects. I have a hard time believing the Indians would deal Clevinger.
Scouts still rave about Julio Urias’ stuff, but Dustin May is very close and Tony Gonsolin is also there.
As you know, I was not happy with the drafting of Lux and Kendall. Kendal has all the “WOW Tools” but he is still a big disappointment. All Lux did was what I tell employees I hire:
1. Show Up;
2. Step Up;
3. Shut Up!
As I mentioned, I was watching video of his swing and you can see him get better, day-by-day. This kid just keeps evolving. I have warmed up to him to the point of where he is untouchable. Lindor benefits immensely by playing at the Jake. He hits .310 at home (.374 OB%) and .266 on the road (.320 OB%). To put it another way, his OPS at home is .901 (superstar), but on the rod it is .781 (Journeyman).
I don’t not get the fascination with him, and neither does AF. I guarantee it! He will never be a Dodger unless Cleveland just rolls over.
In 2019, Lindor hit .284 with a .335 OB% and had a ,854 OPS. He did hit 32 HR, but he would have had less if he played in Chavez Ravine.
Lux could put up similar numbers in his rookie year.
Lux could be ROY and May could be RPOY.
Shadddduuupppp with all this nonsense, already!
I think DodgerRick has it all figured out. I think he is finally thinking what I am… but I am thinking what I am now because of what he said!
I enjoy reading Jayne Cobb’s comments especially about the minor league experiences. Good stuff. Maybe she could write a column here. You think Mark?
Career stats (Baseball Reference) against teams with .500+ winning records.
Clevinger: .252 / .344 / .422 / .766 tOPS+ 1.33
Maeda: .237 / .312 / .416 / .727. tOPS+ 116
Ryu: .245 / .293 / .380 / .681 tOPS+ 1.02
Buehler: .197 / .262 / .333 / .596. tOPS+ 94
Kershaw: .119 / .175 / .131 / .306. tOPS+ 58
Obviously not facing the same opponents. Draw your own conclusions. For me, to trade May I want a better pitcher against .500+ teams than Clevinger.
Cross Wade Miley off the list (Reds)
Wade Miley, Alex Wood, Julio Tehran, Andrew Cashner, Homer Baily, Jason Vargas, Gio Gonzales, Jhoulys Chacin and many others pitchers are still available. Some of these look like a typical FA signing/reclamation project we’ve far too often become accustomed with.
If the FO is indeed going to improve the SP it will have to by way of a trade, otherwise take a hard pass on any of the available FA starting pitchers still available sans Ryu.
There are rumblings that Clevinger has some serious back/shoulder issue.
Also, it’s possible that Lux, Ruiz and Gonsolin could be better than Lindor and Clevinger.
I was studying some video in the DR and Lux has came so far, but I don’t think he even close to where he will be…. maybe THIS year.
If Cartaya is what he is projected to be then I could see trading Ruiz, but I can’t make that determination until he get to GL. I think he should be pushed.
Truth be said, I don’t want to lose Ruiz, but can anyone give me an idea what the future holds for Diego Cartaya??? Saw him in a couple games in the AZL and I liked the kid.. Comfortable behind the dish with good footwork…
DodgerRick:
With Homeboy Moya’s takes it’s all about the IQ!!!
2d now make your playoff predictions. That’s what really matters!
Fuckin stan kasten aka smithers from the simpsons needs to make a move
The Dodgers need a pitcher like Clevinger right now, that would make a hypothetical October rotation of: 1 Buehler
2 Clevinger
3 Urias
4 May / Kershaw
The Dodgers could have Lindor, Betts, Trout together on the team but if Kershaw starts two games in the world series, I’m sorry to tell you that we’re not going to win, Kershaw and Ryu himself can’t stop a strong American league offense, no It reaches them, so another pitcher No.1 or No.2 would give kershaw only one game.
Lindor will always be welcome but pitchers are more urgent.
The Dodgers need a pitcher like Clevinger right now, that would make a hypothetical October rotation of:
1 Buehler
2 Clevinger
3 Urias
4 May / Kershaw
The Dodgers could have Lindor, Betts, Trout together on the team but if Kershaw starts two games in the world series, I’m sorry to tell you that we’re not going to win, Kershaw and Ryu himself can’t stop a strong American league offense, no It reaches them, so another pitcher No.1 or No.2 would give kershaw only one game.
Lindor will always be welcome but pitchers are more urgent.
The Dodgers are a Ferrari, with Cole it was sought to give it more power, it was not achieved but they are still a Ferrari.
Rudy, ha ha, well done, very funny.
Mark,
When you get back can you post your spicy chili recipe again? I remember it a few years ago but can’t find it.
what happened to my last post?
Going back to what I said about player development; Driveline Baseball did a study about the value of all teams’ player development efforts between 2012 and 2019 and the Dodgers have created more value from their farm system than any other franchise. Here is the link:
Open on www.drivelinebaseball.comhttps://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/04/finding-star-nothing-luck-quantifying-effectiveness-mlb-player-development/So – the Dodgers haven’t signed a free agent to a 9 figure deal but they have created more value than any other team with their scouting and player development departments – and that’s why they’ve been good.
I agree that they should be on the hunt for a difference maker, but they have been spending lots of money to grow their own and it’s working.
Some players like pederson etc who they are a part of trade rumors might have less motivation. Some players might think roberts has blown it for them. Some players who feel like the front office isnt doing anything might lose motivation. The disrespect shown to ryu. This front office has bungled this whole off season. They can buy a company from mark cuban but not spend money on players. No one cares to hear stan kasten talk about ticket sales
It most likely won’t be!
NorCal, you are wrong, Pollack was 0-13 in the postseason with 11 K’s, not 12. After that showing, how can anyone even talk about this guy? Trade him, Bellinger, Kershaw and a bag of balls to the Nats for Howie Kendrick, somehow I don’t think the Nats would entertain that offer., they will leave the choke artists in LA. History doesn’t remember competitive teams, you play to win the game:
This team as constructed is the same choke show, minus Ryu. I am very excited to see what AF does between now and the start of the season, it better be good!
The Dodgers have said that they are on the hunt for elite talent. I agree that only elite talent will really improve the team – they are looking for a difference maker, especially for the post-season.
There were 3 or 4 elite free agents who are difference makers. They are all off of the board (except maybe Josh Donaldson – I don’t know if they consider him to be so designated).
Hyun Jin Ryu is potentially elite (based on the last 1 1/2 seasons) but retaining him isn’t adding a difference maker – it’s just keeping what they already had last season. It doesn’t seem like they are all that hot on resigning him though.
I don’t know what other trade targets the Dodgers are serious about. We read rumors but that’s mostly all that they are.
AC responded to my post yesterday that apparently I wasn’t too sanguine about the “kids” who will be in the rotation next year if they don’t sign someone. The issue is that we don’t really know – they haven’t done it before. There is no way that Julio Urias is allowed to throw 177 innings in the regular season next year. Our host compared him to Corey Kluber who only threw 35 innings last season but there is no comparison – he surpassed 200 IP 5 consecutive seasons (2014 – 2018) so he doesn’t have a young arm and he has been there before. Same with Tony Gonsolin – he threw 81 innings between AAA and MLB last year and was a reliever before last season.
So – the Dodgers are looking for elite players to put them over the post-season hump. They have done nothing thus far except lost Ryu and Hill and sign Blake Treinen, with has 4.90 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 2019.
The off-season isn’t over, but it isn’t immediately apparent where the transfusion of elite players is coming from.
The idea that the Dodgers are cheap or are looking to gouge fans is just wrong – they have spent tons on renovating Dodger stadium, rebuilding scouting networks, especially in Latin America, they have totally re-worked their player development system, have invested in technology and in analysis and have had a top-5 payroll every year. In fact, improvements in player development cannot be overstated – just look at all of the talent that they have reaped from the minors in recent years – many times guys who weren’t really supposed to have the impact that they have had.
The question at this point though has to be whether they have a Plan B or C (assuming that Plan A was Gerrit Cole) and if so, why at this point they have been unable to add the elite talent that they need to stay in the race for the Series. As an outsider, it sure seems as if they are unable to get anything done.
BREAKING NEWS: Dodgers spend big this off-season!
… On an analytics company:
Open on www.bloomberg.comhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-16/mark-cuban-sells-sports-technology-company-to-dodgers-ownersAF said they are looking at 12 front line players. So far the score card is:
Cole, signs with Yankees
Strasburg, resigns with Nats
Rendon, signs with Angel
Donaldson, expected to sign with Atl or DC
Lindor takes stalled
Betts, not much news and Boston probably wants to much
Bumgarner, signs with Dbacks
Ryu, sounds like the Dodgers haven’t really shown any interest yet
Treinen, signs with Dodgers
Betances, ?
Handler, no real news. But doubtful.
Aranado, doubtful
Kluber, signs with TX.
Rumors of Pederson and Hernandez being on the trading block but no real news. Any thoughts as to who the Dodgers might target?