Max Scherzer – Yea or Nay?

Before I answer with my position, let me do my best to lay out some of the factors assuredly being discussed in the Dodger “war rooms”.

Max Scherzer is a HOF pitcher who can still bring it at 37.  He would be a front of the rotation pitcher even with the Dodgers.  This year he is 7-4 with a 2.83 ERA and an exceptional WHIP of 0.886 in 105 IP.  He has 142 strikeouts against 25 walks.  That is a SO/W ratio of 5.68.  He has allowed 17 HRs, which is on pace to surrender more HRs in 2021 than any other season other than his CY year of 2016 when he yielded 31.

While not in the MadBum post season class, Max has been tough.  In 22 games and 112.0 IP, Max has a 7-5 records with a 3.38 ERA. He has compiled 137 strikeouts vs 46 walks, and given up 12 HRs (3 to LAD).  Not as scary 2.98 SO/W.  Being candid, he would probably fall into the #2 slot behind Walker Buehler who has been sparkling in post season play.  11 games, 61.1 IP, 2.35 ERA with a 1-1 WL record because LAD cannot score for Walker.  He has 83 K and 22 BB and has allowed 5 HRs. Walker gets the ball in a one game WC or in Game 1 of the NLDS.

There is a lot to like about getting Max for the stretch run and October.  But at what cost.  A rental CF, Starling Marte, cost Oakland Jesus Luzardo.  Don’t look at his stats right now.  He is a 23 year old who has three plus pitches with plus command and control.  He has been hurt, and like Sixto Sanchez, that has to be a concern going forward.  But Oakland gave up a lot as a potential Ace for the A’s to win it this year.

Farhan says he is not giving up Joey Bart for a rental.  So does Andrew regarding Keibert Ruiz.  Will one blink?  Or will Preller swoop in and include Luis Campusano?  All three front runners have a catcher that Washington would covet.

Who knows the truth when Scott Boras opens his mouth, but his latest comments indicate that he is NOT looking for an extension.  Boras prefers negotiating with all 30 teams over 1.  He will still ask for something.  Maybe he will want to move up the $10MM deferral from 2028 to some time sooner.  Maybe tax issues.  Who knows, but it will not be free to waive Max’s no trade clause.

On the flip side, Max is not unbeatable.  In the postseason, Max is 1-1 against LAD.  In 13.0 IP he has allowed 5 runs (3.46 ERA) with 12 Ks and 3 BBs.  And as previously indicated, he allowed 3 HRs in those 12 innings.

I am writing this before Wednesday’s game, but Max would not have made a difference in Julio’s start.  Well I guess he could have allowed 0 runs.  The 8^th inning error would still have occurred, and we all know how LAD does in extra inning games.  The starting pitching has not been a problem now that Gonsolin and Price are stretching out.  As many on this site (and others) have said, this team is not going to win unless Mookie, Seags, and Clayton Kershaw  come back healthy, and Belli turns it around.  CT3 can play 2B and Lux can go to the bench for this year. I like Lux, and think he will be a star, just not this year.

Scherzer would make any rotation better.  But is starting pitching really a problem?  How much would Scherzer add to Buehler, Urias, Kershaw if the Dodgers can find another option (internally or externally)?

Would I include Keibert Ruiz for a rental, even one as good as Max Scherzer?  No.  I would include Ruiz for Luis Castillo, but the Reds do not need another catcher.  They have a fine catcher (more than fine) in 24 year old Tyler Stephenson.  Jose Berrios?  I do not think Berrios is that big of an upgrade over what the Dodgers have to move their #1 prospect.  He would be better than the current #4, but at the cost of Ruiz?  And Minnesota NEEDS catching, so you know Ruiz would be a must.  Byron Buxton?  He just cannot stay on the field enough.  LAD has enough injury concerns.

I m not opposed to trading Keibert, but not a knee-jerk reaction at the trade deadline.  Take some time to see if there is another option next winter, and see how much Cartaya develops.  I am sorry for all of you Austin Barnes haters, but he is a perfect backup catcher.  The pitchers love to pitch to him, and he hits enough, not a lot, but enough for this supposed offensive juggernaut.  As so many complain about his inability to throw out runners, although by the slimmest of margins, Barnes has a better rate at the ML level than does Ruiz at MiLB.  Ruiz has still not improved his transfer from glove to hand enough to bring that CS% up.  Bringing up Ruiz now would put him on the bench as a PH, and why take him away from playing every day?  Hold on for a month, and he will get called up.  Smith is an AS catcher (forget what the votes said).  Why should he move?  Can he play ML 2B or 3B?  He hasn’t yet, so how do you know. Because he played some there in college? He is an exceptional athlete so he can move there as a fill in, but I am not convinced he can play enough defensively to stay there.  I am amazed at the number of fans who do not value defense.  As I said about Seattle, worry about 2022 in the winter.

If the cost for Scherzer is Cartaya and Beeter, make the trade.   If AF needs to add another top 20-30 player, okay.  Cartaya is a top 100 prospect.  In 2017, I wanted Justin Verlander in the worst way.  MT and I had some very “healthy” discussions on the merits of Justin Verlander, who like Scherzer had a no-trade clause.  Justin wanted to come to LA, so he would have waived it as he did for Houston.  Verlander with 2+ years of control brought two top 10 prospects, prospects, and one #23.  The best of the bunch, Franklin Perez, who was a top 100 player, has just been a mess with arm issues, and has not pitched since 2019.  He had shoulder surgery earlier this season. Daz Cameron (CF) and Jake Rogers (C) were the other two.  Scherzer is older and a rental.  Cartaya, Beeter, and Jackson, may be an overpay for a rental, but one I would do.  Washington probably would not.

Other options:  If the offense turns around with the addition of Mookie and Seags, and Kershaw comes back healthy, LAD can live with Price or Gonsolin as #4 and #5.  I still like the idea of adding Wade Miley.  The cost would be more than reasonable for a #5 pitcher who could be a big lefty out of the pen in the post season.  Miley has a $10MM option with a $1MM buyout for 2021. He also has Scherzer type numbers for ERA and WHIP.

But with the offense floundering, I would check into the cost for Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel.  Cubs have said they are willing to combine players.

I also love the idea of Trea Turner to LAD.  Lux would have to be a part of that deal, and some top pitching (other than Gray).  Would Lux, Hoese, and Beeter get it done?  Lux and Cartaya?  Lux, Cartaya, and Kendall Williams or Andre Jackson?  I think Lux becomes an AS with Washington. 

I do not like to make trades because I fear what other teams may do.  That is exactly how LAD ended up with a significant contract overpay for Trevor Bauer.  So if SF or SD overpay to get Max, LAD should just go out and beat him.  They are more than capable, and they have done it before.  There are other options other than Max Scherzer, and I would like to see AF spend some of his prospect capital for a bat.  I do not want to hear there is no place to play.  Just like Preller did with Adam Frazier, you make room.  Find a way to play a Kris Bryant or a Bryron Buxton or a Trea Turner. 

My preference #1 is Max Scherzer if it does not require Keibert Ruiz.  Preference #1A – Craig Kimbrel.  Preference #2 a difference making bat; Turner, Bryant, Buxton.  Preference #3 – Wade Miley.  Preference #3A – Ian Kennedy. Preference #4 – Josh Harrison. Preference #4A – Daniel Hudson. Preference #5 – Jonathan Schoop. Preference #5A – Raisel Iglesias. Every one of those players would be an improvement.

I would also check every box possible for Luis Castillo or German Marquez.  Let Seattle  trade for the Tyler Anderson’s.  No to Sonny Gray, Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, or any of the other mediocre SP being discussed.

So to answer my question above, Would I trade for Max Scherzer…a definite ——-Maybe.