Mad About Max
For a run of six seasons from 2011 until 2016, Madison Bumgarner was a “horse” pitching over 200 innings each year. It culminated in 2016 when he was a key cog in winning the Giants third World Series in six years. In that 2016 season, MadBum pitched 226.2 innings during the…
For a run of six seasons from 2011 until 2016, Madison Bumgarner was a “horse” pitching over 200 innings each year. It culminated in 2016 when he was a key cog in winning the Giants third World Series in six years. In that 2016 season, MadBum pitched 226.2 innings during the regular season and an additional 14 innings in the postseason. When MadBum started that great run he was 21 years old and in 2016 he was 26 years. He has never been the same since.
Clayton Kershaw had a run about the same time where he missed 200 innings by 2 innings once or he would have had six consecutive seasons of 200 plus innings as well. Clayton has almost another full season stuffed into his career with 189 innings pitched during the playoffs. Clayton was also in his twenties when he did that.
Max Scherzer is a little different cat. He also had a run of six straight seasons with 200+ innings pitched, but he started later. Those six seasons were between the age of 28 and 33. Max has also pitched 128 innings in the postseason. Surprisingly, MadBum has just 102 innings pitched in the postseason.
We are discussing this because it appears that 37-years-old Max Scherzer is not going to be able to make his scheduled start today, due to continued “arm soreness” and of course, true to form, someone has to be blamed and that person is Dave Roberts. One fan commented: “Now they ruined Max Scherzer doing the same nonsense [as they did with Urias].”
For the record, I was not in favor of using Urias in relief, but I thought Scherzer coming in and closing out the game was fine… even necessary. Pitchers throw side sessions of 30 to 40 pitches between starts, and both Scherzer and Urias skipped their side sessions (with their blessing at managements’ behest) and respectively threw 13 and 14 pitches in a game. If 13 pitches “ruined” Max Scherzer then his arm is holding on by a thread and that in itself is reason enough not to sign him this offseason.
I believe that anything a pitcher does has an “effect” on their pitching, but I do not believe that 13 or 14 pitches in a game, while not throwing a side session can have a major impact on their performance. If anything, I believe it would be more mental than physical. But, many fans want to “blame” someone and Dave Roberts is their favorite. The fact of the matter is that Max Scherzer has been struggling his past several starts, On September 23rd, he went 5 innings and allowed 6 hits and 5 runs, and then six days later pitched 5.1 innings allowing 11 hits and 6 runs. In the playoffs, he has appeared to be solid at times, but not dominant. He hasn’t looked like Mad Max of old, except maybe during his 13 pitch relief stint.
Max Scherzer is 37 years old. He will be 38 next season. The odds are he will need Tommy John Surgery much like Justin Verlander did a couple of years ago and will miss a large part of two seasons. Pitchers in their mid to late thirties just start breaking down, which is why I would not re-sign Max Scherzer after this season unless it is on a sweet one or two-year deal. No Way. No How!
But, here we are today. If Scherzer can’t go, and it doesn’t appear he can, what do you do? Justin Bruihl also has a sore arm, so I would guess that Mitch White or Andre Jackson would get the call unless they want another LH which could be V-Gon, but I have no idea of his status and health. The Dodgers could rely on another “broken-down” mid-30’s pitcher, David Price to be an “opener” and see how many innings he can go – two would be amazing, three would be miraculous! However, if Striker Buehler is up to it, he should start today, because if you don’t win today, there is no tomorrow. Striker can cement his legend as a “big game pitcher” today. Let him go as far as he can… hopefully seven or eight innings and save the pen for tomorrow. Maybe Max can pitch 2 or 3 innings on Sunday. Maybe Julio as well.
Dodgerpatch articulated the winning formula for the Dodgers to win the NLCS:
In my opinion, it is absolutely essential that the Dodgers score more runs than the Braves if they have any hopes of winning. … but this is just my opinion.
Brilliant! That captures all the nuance. Jayne Cobb also summed up very succinctly how I also feel:
AF and Roberts had a plan for the playoffs. And it’s not the same plan as during the season. They are doing things they would never do during the regular season. As they should. They know what they are doing. That doesn’t mean it always works. Had it not been for that low-pressure system off the coast of CA, Gavin Lux would have walked off that game against the Giants. All the effort, planning, training, strategizing, adjusting and executing go to shit with a single gust of wind. Over 162 games, wind is not an issue. But in one, it determines the outcome. That’s the playoffs. Roberts is executing the plan. It’s the fans who are overanalyzing everything. This is baseball.
Well said.
Injuries have taken their toll, and still are, but it is
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Discussion (148)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The Dodgers announced on Saturday morning that Walker Buehler will take Scherzer’s place on short rest, while rookie Ian Anderson will start for Atlanta.
Lets hope Walker not only has a great game but does not suffer long term harm going on short rest again.
I still don’t get it why the Dodgers went with Max in game two and walker in game three.
If they had flipped that walker and Max both would have been on normal rest.
Go dodgers!
Roberts had Scherzer pitch an inning in relief and now he can’t start and will need surgery and his career is over and the Dodgers will be without his services next year and they will never win the WS ever again.
THANKS DAVE!!!
This is why you don’t mess with the recovery schedule of pitchers who are already at the bleeding edge of peak performance versus breaking down. There is a tipping point.
I exaggerate a little to make a point.
Expecting Scherzer to alter his normal recovery routine and then go out and throw at “closer intensity” – i.e. harder than normal – in retrospect was not wise.
MadBum was like 25 when he was flogged for 200+ innings and then carried the team in the playoffs. He’s now only 32 and a shell of his former self.
Hershiser did the same thing in 88 – was used in relief multiple times. He had another good year in 89, but then he broke down. This probably wasn’t simply because he was used in the relief, but the overall workload in the preceding years was most certainly a contributor.
Max is 37
Why aren’t there any more Nolan Ryans? I dunno for sure. I don’t think Passan really knew, either. I have a hypothesis.
Butane on short rest for only the second time in his career. I do not think there will be long term effects. It is do or die time and they do not have many options.
Not all on Dave. This is an organizational decision. FO has a lot of input in who goes on the field. Right now they are fighting to keep their season alive. And you use the best possible lineup and pitching to do that. If they had another bullpen game and were to lose, the blame would be all over the place. It is not anyone’s fault that injuries to key players, especially the pitching, have caused a playoff dilemma. If they manage to pull it off, some will still complain that they have not got their pitching lined up for the World Series. Bauer, had he not gotten into the mess he is in would have been in the mix. Duffy and Hamels did not pan out. So the alternatives are a shaky Gonsolin, Price, who has not pitched in a couple of weeks and who has rarely pitched more than 3 innings all season. The kids, Mitch White and Andre Jackson. I actually think Gonsolin could do a decent job if he had the kind of control of his off speed stuff that he had at times when he started last season. White pitched some high leverage innings in his outings. The offense has to do it’s part today or there will be no tomorrow. Get some runs early. In fact get a lot of runs early and put the onus on the Braves. They have to play the game with the players they have. It might work, and it might not. Needless to say it is in the hands of the players. Play to their capabilities and they can win this.
Maybe his arm is sore, but stories in the LA Times and Daily News this morning reference only that he has “dead arm” and since I had that once when I pitched fast pitch softball and then coached softball pitchers for years and that was a common occurrence early in the season, I think the best way to describe it is like you’re running 400 yards or meters and you get to the last 75, all of a sudden your legs feel heavy and everything slows down. No matter how hard you push, everything becomes sluggish.
For a pitcher, the arm feels heavy, you begin to lose your snap and arm speed. The ball isn’t quite as lively. It becomes worse as you struggle through it. When it happened to me, my arm wasn’t really sore, but it was dead, felt like a weight was hanging on it.
Usually it bounces back in a few days.
I hate it when they pitch starters on short rest. Never really worked well for Clayton Kershaw. Now the Dodgers are in the same predicament.
No doubt some of this has to do with the Dodgers trying to chase down the Giants, no way to rest pitchers during that run.
Too many injuries to starters and the loss of Trevor Bauer. If Buehler is successful, can Scherzer bounce back Sunday? Possible. Is it something else other than a dead arm? Again, possible. But Scherzer seems to understand his arm. Not like he hasn’t had a bump or two along the way.
If the Dodgers somehow win this, will they have anything left in the tank for the Astros? All of a sudden, we’ve become the Tampa Bay Rays. The bullpen playing a greater role.
The bottom line the Dodgers still need to hit to win. Something they don’t seem to do with great consistency.
As Andrew Friedman looks back on how this season unfolded, no doubt that will factor into how he approaches the winter. If the Dodgers lose today, that process begins Sunday.
On the radio yesterday, someone was talking about Scott Boras having said, not necessarily in relation to this circumstance, that starting pitchers do not like to have their schedule altered by pitching in relief. One can say anything one wants about whether they should like it or not, but if they do not, they are unlikely to sign with a team which has a propensity for doing that, was the import.
Let’s see, if Scherzer does not sign, or if he is injured and out for two years, that does not leave us with many starters, does it? I guess there is Bobby Miller and Pepiot, they will be surefire stars next year, and we are just fine. Particularly when we get to the last part of the season, and the playoffs and we can use our starters in relief and on short rest.
Is it true that Scherzer needs Tommy John surgery or is that just a rumor?
Well, it wouldn’t be the Dodgers 2021 postseason if we weren’t dropping like flies. It is what it is.
This morning was quite interesting checking all the sites. David Price will start, It will be a bullpen game, Bueller will start. And just for good measure, the start time was pushed back to 8 PM Eastern. I guess you throw a bunch of crap at the wall and see what sticks.
More pontification, if we hit we win, if we pitch we win, if we’re healthy we win. It’s awfully simplistic to break down a game into such remedial notions. The fact of the matter is that all aspects of the game are important and each of them are key ingredients in a recipe for winning.
I would imagine that Bueller came to the park early and said “I’m ready”. More than likely he’ll will this thing into fruition. I wouldn’t bet against Big Game Bueller on this one and with a little luck, or love from the baseball gods Scherzer will be ready to go tomorrow. Or, Julio will step up on short rest and do the same thing that Bueller did today, or the bullpen will have additional rest and will be ready to shut down the opposition in a game 7.
Baseball is a funny game. The staff feeds off each other and the internal competition amongst teammates can sometimes out weight the competition towards their opponents. Or, the brotherhood aspect of being teammates will drive you to pick up your fallen soldier and take them to safety. I’ve seen several times this year where the rotation will streak and the team looks unbeatable, each starter feeding off the other. The same can be said about the bullpen and lineup as momentum is a powerful force and it feels like the pendulum is still on the way upward.
Don’t count out adversity as an invisible dynamic that propels a team towards greatness. The 88 team didn’t stop when Gibson couldn’t make the call, instead they dug deep and keep trudging forward. This is a relatively young veteran team that is battle tested beyond any other team in the sport. I’m not going to look even bother looking it up as I’m sure no other team is constructed of players with this much postseason experience. When you look around the roster, most of the stars are a bunch of twenty somethings already with long postseason resumes. That experience is a prerequisite to having the type of determination necessary to overcome so much adversity and still prevail.
Let’s look on the bright side here. Right now, we have one game to win, the one that is directly in front of us. We have a Cy Young candidate on the hill and a potent lineup to offer.
All this focus on the starting pitching has distracted us from the lineup for today’s game with righty Ian Anderson on the bump for Atlanta. I want to offer AF and Doc a little advice. Don’t overthink things. Just go with the hot hand where there’s a decision to be made and put people where they’re comfortable, both on the field and in the order.
Betts RF
Turner 2B
Seager SS
Smith C
Pollock LF
Pujols 1B
Bellinger CF
Taylor 3B
One last piece of advice. Stop the extreme shifts on Rosario, Albies and Freeman. They’re making you look really stupid.
Here’s what we don’t know:
1. How stretched out is White?
2. How does Buehler feel?
3. How serious is Bruihl’s arm?
4. Is Andre Jackson stretched out?
5. How far could Price go?
6. Has Scherzer ever experienced something like this?
Personally I should know but don’t:
If Bruihl is taken off the playoff roster can he be reinstated for next round?
With this much of an information deficit, you gotta trust the team and hope?
No?
Let’s go Buehler!
Can Gavin play first base? I don’t think Dave Roberts will play Pujols today against right hander Ian Anderson.
Everything is going wrong. We’ve got em right where we want them!
The Dodgers came into the playoffs with only three starting pitchers and have now overused each of them in the postseason. Buehler and Urias each logged career high innings this year in the regular season by far. And both have had significant arm surgeries earlier in their career. And now the Dodgers are pitching both on short rest in these playoffs when other options are available. There was no reason to pitch Urias in game 2 given the deep, effective bullpen. And then to bring him back again in game 4 on short rest when he had his worst outing in 4 months.
And Buehler was good on short rest against the Giants, but not his best in the next start.
I would prefer to keep Walker for game 7 and use the bullpen in game 6. The short and long term impact of pitching on 3 days rest multiple times is unknowable, and unnecessarily risky. I would rather risk losing a bullpen game in game 6, than risking a second TJ surgery for Buehler. And even if you only care about this playoff series, you have to win 2 games, and Buehler on full rest can pitch 7 or 8 innings, but on short rest, you will be lucky to get 4 or 5 innings.
As MT always states, the Dodgers front office has a thousand times more information than we do, and they are extremely intelligent. Maybe Max can start in game 7 per their info.
But from what I have seen, it is not worth the risk to start Buehler today. Not worth the injury risk, and not worth the performance risk. You have 9 available relief pitchers with a day off who can pitch 1 or 2 innings today.
Use your 26 man roster and let Buehler pitch on normal rest.
Hopefully, I am wrong, and Buehler pitches great, and the Dodgers find a way to win this series. I definitely hope Walker pitches a gem and they coast to a win.
PS – If Gavin Lux ball was a HR, it still would not have been a walkoff. It would have just tied the game in the bottom of the 9th.
There’s not a single reported story that says that Max has a sore elbow or that he needs Tommy John surgery. It’s Mark engaging in hyperbole.
The Dodgers are falling prey to the effects of the frailties of the human body, the grind of a long season and bad luck. Max pitching an extra inning didn’t cause long-term damage.
The inability to throw 200+ innings consistently is the result of the way the teams use pitchers today. As recently as 1971, Mickey Lolich threw 376 innings. Lolich, Wilbur Wood, Steve Calrton, Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro, Nolan Ryan, Ferguson Jenkins, Andy Messersmith, Randy Jones, Jim Palmer, Catffish Hunter, Sam McDowell and others threw over 300 innings in a season, in many cases more than once. I don’t buy the narrative that Bumgarner was finished at 30 because he threw 226 innings in 2016.
By the way, the last time the Giants were in the Series was 2014, not 2016.
Lineup:
1. Turner 2B
2. Seager SS
3. Betts RF
4. Bellinger 1B
5. Smith C
6. Lux CF
7. Taylor 3B
8. Pollock LF
Stagger the hitters so there are not too many of the same L-R bent in a row.
Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale say “Walker, what’s the big deal? Just go out there and pitch the game of your life!”
I for one do not think that Kershaw is going to retire. I have to believe that he does not want to retire with a season like this being his last. That being said, I think all the chatter that he might sign with the Rangers is baseless. The guy wants to win. And it will be quite a few years before the Rangers could challenge any team in their division. Scherzer is not going to quit either. Only some sort of catastrophic injury could compel a guy with his competitive zeal to quit. Patch, there are no more Nolan Ryan’s simply because pitchers today are not trained to go 9. Teams want a quality start. 6 innings and let the bullpen take over. The salaries that they get paid today make a successful starter a huge investment. And investors hate losing money. Which is probably one reason the the ownership of the Dodgers are probably pretty livid at what happened with Bauer. There will be a lot of speculation this winter about free agents and where they might go. Freidman has his work cut out for him.
On another topic, I was disgusted to see the Astros celebrate, on their way to a possible world championship. A bunch of jerks who never took responsibility for cheating, thought that the ends justified the means. And here is the network excited about them winning. With a commissioner who did nothing to any of the players who cheated. And all this sanctimony in sports, but no one with the courage to take away their title, and suspend the cheaters, at least have a serious investigation of it with details. They might be cheating this year, who knows? In Texas, it’s all about getting what the big men want; and rules, laws, and keeping their citizens warm in freezing temperatures, do not matter to them The Astros, from top to bottom, epitomize it. If the Dodgers do not get into the World Series, I will not watch a minute of it.
“Don’t count out adversity as an invisible dynamic that propels a team towards greatness.”
One of the better comments you’ve made BandP. I agree 100%.
Thomas Paine, a big Dodger fan, once said the following:
These are the times that try men’s souls; the summer ballplayer and the sunshine fan will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his team; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of all Dodger fans.
(I may have gotten a few of the words wrong, but Thomas knew what he was talking about)
Old Bear, spot on with your SP thoughts…
I laugh a little when I think about a manager moseying out to the bump in the 7th. to remove say Big D or oven more dangerous Bob Gibson… Chaos would ensue…
As I’ve said before Old Bear, thanks for your input on LA Dodger Talk and your advise to the uninformed commenters.
GO blue… Play like your arse is on fire…
The Dodgers are going to either have a bullpen game for game 6 or game 7 and they chose game 7. They have to win both. Why did they chose game 7? Buehler on short rest for game 6 apparently was better than bullpen on short rest for game 6.
Buehler would go into the 2022 season with fewer innings under his hood if the Dodgers were to lose a bullpen game in game 6 as he wouldn’t have to pitch game 7.
If starting Buehler in game 6 is based on the hope Scherzer can pitch in game 7 then I hope the Dodgers know something they are not sharing with us.
The Dodgers top pitching prospects will have inning limits next year which begs the question as to what the rotation will be for next year’s playoffs. Hard to give enough rest to all 5 members of a rotation which would be the case if two prospects and Kershaw and Scherzer are a big part of the rotation.
Seager would upgrade the Yankees defense over Gleyber plus give them a much needed lefty bat. The Yanks are going to make the Dodgers pay high to keep Seager. That plus Bauer limits what the Dodgers will do rotation wise next year.
If Scherzer gets rid of his dead arm the Dodgers can load up the innings they give him through the World Series. It might be best long term if Buehler and Urias don’t add on World Series innings to their 2021 season totals.
Has anybody noticed that Verdugo seems to be much heavier now than when he played for the Dodgers?
Anyone remember, Spahn & Sain and pray for rain? Maybe we could get a Clem Labine performance from someone. (Oldtimers will know what I mean!)
And I agree with those who say its too early to talk about next year. Plenty of time for that after we beat the Cheatos.
Too many unknowns. Who leaving as FA, who needs Tommy John or other surgery, etc.
“In my opinion, it is absolutely essential that the Dodgers score more runs than the Braves if they have any hopes of winning. … but this is just my opinion.”
“Brilliant! That captures all the nuance”
To be honest, that was a little of me just being a smartass. A response to the “you hit you win” commentary I keep seeing.
“Ya know, plain and simple, if the Dodgers just hit, pitch, run and field … they’ll probably win.” Ya don’t say!
But to your point, we do like the mental masturbation of micro analyzing every aspect of the game here. It’s a hobby. In the immortal words of a former owner (who would be run out of the game today) of a team I don’t particularly care for, “Just win, baby.”