Logic Trumps Emotion
Logic is the language of the conscious mind, emotion is the language of the unconscious mind. We know that emotions are reactions to perceived and imagined stimuli, not based on logic, but on one’s own personal experiences. Emotions often outweigh our logic. Last Spring…
Logic is the language of the conscious mind, emotion is the language of the unconscious mind. We know that emotions are reactions to perceived and imagined stimuli, not based on logic, but on one’s own personal experiences. Emotions often outweigh our logic.
Last Spring Training, I championed Miguel Vargas as a player who could become a star. Not a superstar, mind you… but a star. I also said that James Outman was a 4th or 5th outfielder. Some of you took that personally and aligned together in a fantasy game of Outman vs. Vargas. Somehow, some fans thought I was dissing Outman. I love James Outman’s hustle and power (against RHP) – I had watched him playing many, many games, and I felt he would never hit LHP enough to play in anything other than a platoon.
Some of you jumped at the chance to align yourself with James Outman against Mark Timmons, who was high on Miguel Vargas, and when Vargas bombed out in the summer, you felt vindicated. Outman went on to have a good rookie season while Miguel Vargas struggled with broken bones in his hand, bad habits created by the loss of confidence that resulted. It ended up that James Outman was sent back to AAA, where he seems to be doing quite well, and I hope to see him back in the Show soon, where he will likely share time with Andy Pages.
My youngest son was appointed CEO of US Water Systems over the weekend, but it doesn’t mean that I like or love him more than his older siblings, whom I did not promote to CEO. This was based on logic and the understanding of what he is. This was not playing favorites. It was logical. Where the Outman-lovers got trumped was in relying upon the emotion of loving his style of play and not logically looking at his inability to hit LHP. “But he had a .357 OB% against LHP.” Come on, you know better. His OPS was .655 – nobody is going to continue to play with that kind of OPS. In baseball today, OPS is king.
Miguel Vargas struggled for the first time in his career last season as he developed bad habits and lost confidence. By his own admission and the Dodgers, it got into his head! He has finally bounced back, and in a small sampling (30 ABs), he currently leads the team in hitting with a .333 BA and is second in OPS at .949. Yes, it’s too soon to pronounce him cured, but it’s a start.
I have not agreed with the Dodgers platooning him in LF against LHP, but in this small sampling, I do understand it. It turned out he is killing LHP to the tune of a .533 BA and 1.455 OPS. Against RHP (at this level), he is hitting just .133 with a .443 OPS. According to that, he should not play against RHP, at least not right now. He has 15 RH at-bats and 15 LH at-bats, and the Dodgers are putting him in the best position to succeed (right now).
Miguel had mostly played 3B in the minors, but by no stretch was he an MLB third baseman. The Dodgers moved him to 2B and handed him the job – he had a .982 Fielding percentage but never looked comfortable. As a 3B in the minors, Miguel had a .923 Fielding Percentage vs. a .972 Fielding Percentage as a 2B. Miguel will never play 3B in the majors…. nor should he. Maybe he could adjust to 2B, but his position has to be LF or 2B. I think that this season, it will only be LF.
So, player development is not linear, and I would not push Miguel Vargas too fast. Let him get his ABs against LHP, and he will also get a few against RHP. We are starting to see the Miguel Vargas I watched in the minors, who goes with the pitch, doesn’t try and do too much, and makes excellent contact. The Dodgers need that at the bottom of the lineup.
The Dodgers also need Max Muncy back. He was OPs’ing .798 when he went down and was on track for 35 HR and 100 RBI. As I write this, the Dodgers lead all of MLB in OPS with a .776. Here are the individual players OPS:
- Ohtani – 1.021
- Vargas – .949
- Freeman – .901
- Betts – .893
- Smith .817
- T Hernandez – .813
- Muncy – .798
- Heyward – .779
- Rojas – .764
- Pages – .730
It should not be lost on anyone that Cavin Biggio, Kike Hernandez, James Outman, Gavin Lux, Austin Barnes, and Chris Taylor are all below .600 OPS. Outman will be back, but CT3, Kike, and Lux are all in danger of being moved. That said, the Dodgers are the absolute best in OPS in all of baseball. This will work itself out.
As mentioned yesterday, Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers have proved adept at building a roster. Many wanted to get rid of Vesia, Phillips, Banda, Ramirez, Hudson, et al, but the Dodgers knew best. There are lots of players and arms that can and will come back, including the following:
- Walker Buehler
- Clayton Kershaw
- Yoshi Yamamoto
- Dustin May
- Tony Gonsolin
- JP Feyerisen
- Kyle Hurt
- Ryan Brasier
- Michael Grove
- Joe Kelly
- Max Muncy
Not all will be successful. That’s why AF buys them cheap and stacks them deep. River Ryan may make an appearance in the second half. So could Wrobleski! Stay the course. There is no competition in the NL West, as I predicted. Remember, it’s how they finish that counts!
X-Cites
Missing Bats: How culture and tech converged to spread baseball’s strikeout gospel – Part 2
This is a long and worthy read and explains why “hitters don’t have a chance.“
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Discussion (69)
Disagree, not disagreeable
“But he had a .357 OB% against LHP.” Come on, you know better. His OPS was .655 – nobody is going to continue to play with that kind of OPS. In baseball today, OPS is king.
Well, true if we look around baseball. OPS indeed looks to be king. But maybe the Dodgers would be well advised to look a little more at OBP when adressing the bottom of their lineup. With all those thumpers at the top and middle of the lineup two high OBP bats would work make this lineup even better. Just let the bottom get on base for the mashers we have. If Outman has an OBP of .357 vs LHP then that is pretty fine with me if he bats Nr. 8 or Nr. 9 even vs LHP.
And Vargas does not have to be a GG 2b or 3b to get him some additional at bats.
Listening to Locked on Dodgers today they said that the Dodgers probabl are showcasing Vargas for a trade and that they do not want him to lose trade value putting him in bad situations (eg. vs RHP or 3b). Sounds reasonable to me.
Cartaya has improved noticeably the last couple weeks and I like his promotion to AAA. He should get more AB there then at AA with Rushing on the roste.r
DePaula appears to be on GL now getting promoted too. Good move. Put him on the fast track.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!