Maybe we are seeing the “beginning of the end” of the lockout! It has been reported that MLB offered to raise the base luxury tax threshold to $228MM next season, with that figure rising to $238MM over the course of the CBA. That’s enough progress that the players can call it a WIN. Of course, MLB will want some concessions as well. They will want the 14-team playoff (which I don’t care for, but who cares?), the International Draft as well as several other things.
MLB is saying that Today is the “Drop Dead Date” for having a full 162-game season and therefore the players being able to collect 100% of their pay. I could write about all of this but Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors has already written about it… and done a great job. Here’s where the major issues stand:
Minimum Salary
- MLB: $700K in 2022 increasing to $740K by 2026
- MLBPA: $725K in 2022, $745K in 2023, $765K in 2024, $765K plus consumer price index increase in 2025, same increase in 2026
- Current gap: $25K in 2022
Competitive Balance Tax
- MLB: Base tax thresholds at $228MM in 2022, reaching $238MM in 2026, but “said to have major strings attached,” according to Evan Drellich.
- MLBPA: $238MM in 2022 / $244MM in 2023 / $250MM in 2024 / $256MM in 2025 / $263MM in 2026.
- Current gap: $10MM in 2022, growing to $25MM in 2026, plus those unknown strings attached
Draft Pick Compensation
- MLB: Has proposed eliminating draft pick forfeiture for teams that sign free agents. Their plan still calls for teams to get draft picks for losing free agents, depending on the quality of the player.
Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool
- MLB: $30MM pool with no increases throughout the CBA
- MLBPA: $80MM pool, assumed to include $5MM annual increases throughout the CBA
- Current gap: $50MM in 2022, growing to $70MM by 2026
Arbitration Eligibility
Super Two is expected to remain at the top 22% of 2+ players.
Service Time Manipulation
- MLB: Offering two draft picks within the player’s first three years if he finishes in the top three in Cy Young, Rookie of the Year or MVP voting (per Jesse Rogers). A player finishing first or second in Rookie of the Year voting would receive a full year of service time.
- MLBPA: Players receive a full year of service time in their rookie season if infielders, catchers, and designated hitters finish among the top five for their position in WAR in each league, with outfielders, relief pitchers and starting pitchers finishing among the top 15, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic. “The union also said it would accept a modification of MLB’s proposal that would reward draft pick compensation to teams whose players finish among the top three in the Rookie of the Year, MVP and Cy Young voting.” (per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale on 2-1-22)
Anti-Tanking Measures
- MLB: Lottery for top five picks. “Equal odds for bottom three record (16.5%). Revenue-sharing payees ineligible to be in lottery 3 straight years; non-payees ineligible in consecutive years. Ineligible teams can’t pick higher than 8th overall,” according to Mark Feinsand.
- MLBPA: Lottery for top six picks. All teams that did not qualify for the postseason in the preceding season would be part of this lottery. So in a 12-team playoff field, 18 teams would have a chance at the #1 pick. In the MLBPA’s proposal, the odds for the #1 overall pick would be as follows:
- Team 1: 15% (the team with the worst record in baseball)
- Team 2: 15% (the team with the second-worst record in baseball)
- Team 3: 15%
- Team 4: 12.5%
- Team 5: 10%
- Team 6: 8%
- Team 7: 6.5%
- Team 8: 5%
- Team 9: 3.25%
- Team 10: 2.25%
- Team 11: 1.5%
- Team 12: 1.25%
- Team 13: 1.12%
- Team 14: 1%
- Team 15: 0.88%
- Team 16: 0.75%
- Team 17: 0.625%
- Team 18: 0.375%
These odds would be adjusted as each of the first seven picks are given out via this lottery system. After those seven lottery picks are assigned, the remaining non-playoff teams would be assigned picks in the reverse order of winning percentage.
The MLBPA is also proposing competitiveness adjustments. Revenue sharing payors that finish in the bottom eight in winning percentage in each of the two previous seasons or in the bottom 12 in each of the three previous seasons would pick no earlier than 10th. Additionally, any team that does not receive revenue sharing that finishes in the bottom 12 in each of the four or more previous seasons would have their pick moved to #18.
Also, beginning with the 2024 draft, any revenue sharing recipient finishing in the bottom eight in each of the three previous seasons would pick no earlier than 10th. Any such club in the bottom eight in each of the four or more previous seasons would have their pick moved to #18.
Revenue Sharing
- MLB: Seeking to move Oakland Athletics back to revenue sharing payee
- MLBPA: Has plan to incentivize small market teams to spend, with money coming from central revenue
Expanded Playoffs
Recent proposals have involved 12-team playoffs, though the MLBPA is said to be willing to reopen talks in 14-team playoffs with the inclusion of a “ghost win.”
On-Uniform Advertising
- MLB: Seeking uniform patches and helmet decals
- MLBPA: Has not yet agreed to this
International Draft
- MLB: Included in their proposal
- MLBPA: Opposes international draft
Minor League Options
The two sides have agreed to limit the number of times a player can be optioned to the minors in one season to five.
Rule Changes
- MLB: Seeking ability to implement on-field rule changes 45 days after formally proposing them to players. MLB seeks a pitch clock, bigger bases, and the elimination of the shift for the 2023 season.
- MLBPA: “Would grant MLB ability to implement 3 specific on-field changes w/45-day notice, starting w/2023 season: pitch clock, larger bases, shift restriction,” according to Evan Drellich.
Universal Designated Hitter
This seems to be generally agreed upon by both sides
Yes, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s hope it is not a train.
I might add, that if they can reach an agreement today, they start the season on time and allow every team to carry 5 extra players the first 6 weeks of the season so as to ‘ramp the players up slowly.”
Discussion (16)
Disagree, not disagreeable
American players are subject to a draft and limitations on draft compensation based on total amount teams are allowed to spend. So MLB wants to impose similar rules for Latin players and this is a big “no”. Why?
International draft “non-starter” for Latin players and might not be acceptable to union even with major MLB give, sources tell @TheAthletic. Union in latest proposal still wants qualifying offer eliminated, as well as higher CBT thresholds and pre-arb pool than MLB has offered.
On minimum salaries: MLBPA now starts at $710k and goes up to $780k. Players were recently starting at $725k, had dipped to $715k before this offer. MLB remains at $700k to start, finishing at $770k.
MLBPA proposal today moved to $65 million on prearbitration pool and $232m, $235m, $240m, $245m, $250m on CBT thresholds over the deal.
MLB answered PA proposal by offering three options:
1. Agree to eliminate draft-pick comp, examine int’l draft. 2. Give MLB option to reopen CBA in couple of years if union won’t agree to draft. 3. Agree to int’l draft and elimination of draft-pick comp.
Union would find idea of re-opener unappealing, sources say. If deal in few years was working well for players, league would have option to escape and stage another lockout.
The counterproposal players of the three options MLB proposed, per source: Parties have until Nov. 15 to agree to an international draft. If they don’t agree on it, then qualifying offer returns after 2022-23 offseason and international system also returns to status quo.
Jeff Passan:
Major League Baseball plans to cancel two more series, bringing the total to the first two weeks of the regular season, sources tell ESPN.
No deal today the stalemate lingers on. Shaking my head.
It does indeed appear as if the owners have moved toward the players on many economic core issues. Imagine being a super talented 22 year-old kid who makes it to the big leagues at $700,00-$770.000 per year. You get per diem allowance, stay at the finest hotels with room service while another 22 year-old kid wears a 30 lb. rough sack, carries an M-16, has to wear a kevlar helmet while earning $35,000 per year. In another example a 22 year-old “fresh out of teachers school” college graduate takes on a job to teach at an inner-city school for $45,000 per year, or an aspiring medical student, who might develop a cure for cancer one day, has to find a way to pay back student loans totaling $500,000+.
If the MLPBA and Scott Boras don’t agree to the latest CBA offer by the MLB (owners) they can go @#&* themselves as far as I’m concerned.
Sorry, but I have no compassion for the pay and working conditions for MLB players.
If they don’t agree today, I am going to talk really bad about the players.
Today is the first day since the lockout that I have my TV at work on MLB.
I woke up this morning and saw that there was no news on a deal. But I had expected nothing less. Reading MLBTR I can see there still are some gaps in what the players want and what the league wants to offer. But I think things have moved enough where they can get it done today. Hopefully that happens. What happens when the lockout ends will be chaos. There will be a flurry of activity. Graterol and Treinen have been at the MLBPA facility in Arizona, Bauer dropped in there for a little while yesterday but left without speaking to reporters. Manfred will have to make a decision on him soon. Especially if there is a deal in place by today.
After seeing these updates, I thought for sure there would be some positive news this morning. I should have known better, I guess.
It looks like the owners were the first side to blink and make some significant progress towards meeting in the middle. This makes me believe that a deal will be done soon. After meeting all night, I just don’t see how the Players Union can stall this any further.
I’m hoping that they’re dotting I’s and crossing T’s at this point.
Assuming that a deal gets done, what are you most excited about for the upcoming season?
Who is your breakout player for the Dodgers this year?
Who do you think will be the biggest challenge to the Dodgers within the division?
Who do you think will be the biggest challenge to the Dodgers in the NL?
I’ll go first…
The possibility of Pepiot or Miller joining the rotation
Lux – I think he’s the player we saw in September. Look for him to play SS next year as Trea Turner enters free agency.
The Padres – Talent wise, they’re a better team than the Giants. New coach will probably help get them on the same page. I’m looking at a Hosmer upgrade at 1B one way or another.
I’m having a real hard time with the last one. The 88 win Braves were much better in the post-season than they were during the regular season. The Giants will be lost without Posey. I think I’ll go with the Padres as the second best team in the league, but Tatis’ shoulder ain’t gonna fix itself.
If it doesn’t get done today (Wednesday) I think we’re in for a very long protracted work stoppage. Too much momentum has been gained in the last day (if the reporting is accurate) that if the two sides cannot come to an agreement today I think they “pick up their marbles” and go home for a long- a very long time.
I’m such a hardcore fan I’m excited with the prospect of the start of FA, but more eager to see the the FA acquisition transaction wire. It’s going to be wild and frenetic to see players and front office staff work to get signings/physicals/roster construction done in a short period of time.
For the Dodgers where does CK and KJ end up? Is Freeman a Dodger? Is TB a Dodger? Where does AF find more starting pitching?
Get it done and lets play ball.
Some major progress being made on tonight’s negotiations.
MLB has given the union a written offer which includes a CBT which goes from $230-242 over the next 5 years, minimum salary from $700-770 and they’ve agreed to a 12 team playoff rather than 14 which they previously stipulated.
There are, of course, other points which the players will want to counter, but I think this offer is close enough that unless Boras submarines the deal again, they should be able to finish this within the next 24 hours.
But then, nobody is asking me. For all I know the players will walk away from this deal. In my opinion, that would be a big mistake, except for some relatively minor tweeking.
From The LA Times:
In each of the last five seasons — and never before, based on available data from the Baseball Reference and Five Thirty Eight websites — it is more likely that a strike will be fouled off than put into play.
“The hitters have learned to exploit that rule to extend at-bats, which is one of the things making the game longer,” James said, “and you need to make adjustments.”
James proposes that a batter can foul off one pitch with two strikes. Foul off another pitch, and you’re out.
Heresy? Maybe. But, as James noted, baseball had been played for decades under the premise that a runner should knock over the catcher if he is guarding home plate, and that a team should change pitchers whenever it wanted. No more, since the rules changed.
“Everybody accepts that now,” James said. “Nobody fights it.”
Interesting. I think I like that!
Read more here: https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2022-03-07/bill-james-mlb-improving-baseball-lockout-rob-manfred
I’m listening to the Jayson Stark/Rosenthal podcast, I have to say there’s very little optimism from those two reporters.
Salary insanity spreads to football as the Packers sign Rogers for 4 years, 200 million. Brad Peacock signed by the Royals. MLB signs a deal with Apple to stream Friday Night Baseball. Seahawks trade Russell Wilson to the Bronco’s.
Get it done today. The world, or at least America, needs our past time. With the hyperbolic political environment , the long Covid ordeal , the threat of WW III, the unbelieveable increased costs for nearly everything in life, it is time for the owners and players to get it done.
Found this in a Joe Posnanski post online and I think it really sums up the situation:
“Dammit, do we ask for a lot as baseball fans? I don’t think so. All we ask is that the people who run the game act as if they like it. They don’t have to love it like we do. Just like it. ”
He’s right. They act as though it’s just a business to them…………………….and maybe that’s all it is.
Just get it done and lets have some baseball.