Let's Play What If

So it has turned out those who thought Edwin diaz might be injured were spot on. Will have surgery for loose bodies in his elbow tomorrow. Out indefinetely. Bummer for sure. That will force the Dodgers to reset their bullpen with their closer down. Closer by committee again ? Likely. On Sasaki: Jeff, you wrote that somebody wroet that Sasakis velo was down from last season and statcast shows otherwise. I can only speak for myself but I wrote yesterday that his velo was down considerably from his days in Japan, not last year.

My recollection is that Roki got his velocity back at the end of last season, which helped him perform in the pen. Command seems to be more of a problem now. I’d feel worse about Roki if he was clearly blocking River Ryan right now. But Ryan, Gavin Stone and Snell are all recovering from injuries. The Dodgers brass, it seems, believe in Roki’s talent and are committed to his improvement as an SP for now. But Wrobleski’s rise and, as Jeff suggests, Snell’s return could send him to the pen. (With Diaz out, not a bad outcome.) The Dodgers’ offense is impressive, but Dalton Rushing has been insane. Over 27 ABs, he’s batting .444 with 7–yes, SEVEN–homers. His OPS 1.760. Not bad for a backup catcher. Just for grins, I’m trying to cobble a lineup of Dodger prospect alumni now scattered across the majors DH– Yordan Alvarez C–Fedducia, Ruiz 1B– Busch 2B– Lux 3B– Vargas SS– McKinstry(?) OF– Raley, DeLuca, Outman, Oneil Cruz UT–Jacob Amaya Who am I forgetting?? Some good ones. I hesitate to mention Yonder and Cruz because they were traded as young “lottery tickets”…. who paid off big time. The Dodgers didn’t really “develop” them. Pretty sure I have some loose bodies in my right shoulder. Every time I do pushups, I can hear them grinding.

I know the feeling. I also could not reach above about 85 degrees. Replaced it in September, and now I have a full range of motion. I don’t do pushups anymore because I have very long monkey arms, and it’s difficult. I’m a knuckle-dragger! 😉

Left shoulder for me. Push-ups are better than bench press though for feeling them. Wrobleski is becoming a storyline unto himself. I always believed in the arm talent. And Rushing, forget it.

Great example, Jeff, of how we can see the glass half-full or half-empty. I don’t see any major reason to be worried. Some bad stuff will happen – it always does! But the Dodgers can weather the storm. I have always believed that Andrew Friedman’s decisions, while not always right (whose are?), are generally to be trusted. I do think that Dalton Crushing is forcing the Dodgers’ hand. If Freddie were to go down, Dalton can play there, but that’s it. He’s a catcher. OTOH, Will Smith could play a few games somewhere else (I believe). I think it is incumbent upon the Dodgers to see if Will could play 2B or 3B occasionally. It’s a process… he’s not just going to be penciled in there and deliver. But (in my mind) they should start getting him some reps at 2B or 3 B in practice. Dalton is a little on the “Burley side.” Will is of slighter build… thus the grind wears him down. I’d love to see both their bats in the lineup.

Great article Jeff. It gets right to the heart of the matter. Considering most commenters post with their heart. What if we were all Rockies fans. Hmmm. Baseball is a game of futility. So I thoroughly enjoy every successful outcome. Especially when my Dodgers are creating them. Roki is fallible as we all are. But he is a critical component to this dynasty. As is (sorry haters) Landon Knack. Some people are critics and some are cheerleaders. I think you know which one I am. Remember grasshoppers…… He who throws stones hits self in head. Not sure that’s how the saying goes. Oh well. Book em

What if all that happens? The Dodgers win 125 games. They won’t because it won’t. There will be things that go wrong because things are things and things are designed to go wrong. Anybody that’s alive knows that. Diaz is an example. Sheehan with an ERA of 5.85 and Roki with an ERA of 6.11 are examples of that. Freeland OPS’n .565 is an example. Tucker and Smith haven’t really hit yet. This team is deep and profoundly talented. Numbers will eventually settle into normal ranges. Sheehan and Roki will improve. Dalton Rushing won’t OPS 1.761 and Rojas won’t OPS .950. Somebody else will go on the IL. And I’ll take the under on 26 starts for Glasnow. He’s never done more than 22, so I think that’s a safe bet. I want him there in October. I’m ok with some days off this summer. It’s a long season. This team is built for the playoffs. But in places they are a bit long in the tooth. Don’t push it. 12-3. And it could have been worse. They were 3 for 15 WRISP. It was the Rockies. The Rockies suck begonias The Dodgers are supposed to thump them. SF up next. They suck too. Take it to ‘em.

Yeah, execs should be meeting right now over coffee and burritos to figure out a way to get Rushing’s bat in the lineup more. There’s Will Smith rest days Freddie Freeman rest days Maybe Ohtani pitching days But there need to be more.

Let’s beat they ass

Another very nice performance by Worbleski. He’s a bullpen saver lately and doing it with only 3 strikeouts. I love seeing a pitcher who can be effective while pitching to contact. Steven Nelson seems bothered by this, quoting in game his lack of swing and miss. Orel, on the other hand, appreciates the skill. 7 innings on 97 pitches is an obvious benefit as well has keeping the defense engaged. I really liked Orel’s comment about Kershaw’s influence on Worbs. Kersh apparently was not a big fan of too many chase pitches, preferring a quality placed competitive pitch to throwing at least 2 and perhaps 3 non-competitive pitches that expand pitch counts. It’s become so predictable now days for a hitter to get down 0 and 2 and then get 2 pitches in the dirt or over his head. Pitchers like Worbs needs to pitch to contact and save the bullets. Nice outing but someone might remind Worbs to back up home on throws from the outfield. In the 5th, Call’s caught a fly and made a nice throw home, holding the runner. Will made a nice block on the throw while Justin watched the game from the middle of the infield. Please get your ass behind home, just in case. Little stuff matters. If a pitcher wanted to get in my doghouse, fail to back up bases or try to be the cut-off man in the middle of the infield, just getting in the way. Muncy and Miggy; have a day. Does anybody remember when Max started wearing his glasses? I’d love to research his stats since he started wearing them.

If Max ends up hitting 40 HR, I’m owed an apology.

So far the season has been entertaining with a few disappointments and some nice surprising results. The Dodgers’ record of 16-6 is , by far, the best in baseball. Jeff’s post is wide open for comments depending on how we each look at the play so far. Valid reasons to be critical and reasons for optimism. It’s so early in the season that it can lead to overreactions in both directions. As Badger states above, player stats have a way to regressing to the mean as the season progress. Occasionally, a player will have a break out season. This is what I predicted with Andy Pages as the season began. So far, both offense and defense have gone up a notch or two. Naturally, his CF play has a better chance of continued improvement. And, most likely, his offense will cool off some, but will be better than 2025. It’s nice to finally see the Dodger front office promote and play prospects. Rushing, after a slow start, has been slugging at an other worldly pace the past two weeks. He still has a 30% K rate, but when does put the ball in play the results enough to make his AB’s a must watch. I’m happy to watch Alex Freeland get a solid chance at 2B. His defense has been very good. Offensively, he has had a rough time. He too has been striking out at a 30% clip. So many times he has had men in scoring position and is swinging at very hittable pitches and fails to make contact. That definitely needs to improve if he wants to continue playing in the MLB. I’ll continue to pull for the young man. Roki Sasaki’s 2026 is surprising for me so far. After stellar pitching out of the BP in the postseason I was expecting a strong start to this season. The Dodger pitching “magic” from the coaches has failed him to this point. He has the talent and arm to be a 4-5 starter, but the problem appears to be between his ears right now. The concern about his velo should be secondary to his inability to locate his pitches. How was he so successful in Japan and has had so much trouble transferring that to the MLB? Until Snell returns, I say keep working with him in order to get his mental part of the game on track. Speaking of Snell’s return, when did he get injured? He was out most of last season. He pitched well in the playoffs. Did injury happen then? I wasn’t following the team much in the offseason. How does he go from pitching 17 games at the end of the season, gets injured, and needs the entire offseason and at least the first two months of 2026 to recover? Quite the gig to have making $36MM a season. Kudos to the 6-9 hitters! It’s quite the turnaround from last year when just about everyone was highly critical of the near zero offensive contributions from that group. This year it’s the top of the lineup that hasn’t got on track. It would be fun to see 1-9 hot for two to three weeks of games. Edwin Diaz…. surgery today for bone chips in his elbow. Of course, the curse continues. In 67+ years of watching Dodger baseball I’ve never seen so many pitching injuries as I have the past few seasons. If it wasn’t so upsetting, one can only shake their head. Carry on.

A couple of years ago was when Muncy began wearing the glasses. Kike did too and both improved.

Not by far the best record, the Padres are just one game back at 15-7. Last night the 3-4-5 hitters went 1-12. Muncy, Rojas and Rushing were the offense. Who would have guessed that Muncy and Rushing would have more homers than Ohtani. Braves have also won 16 games and they have lost 7. Reds are 15-8, no American League team has more than 13.

Luke Raley is REALLY crushing it.

Solid input Ted. Some good questions in there. I see a performance like Wrobleski’s as a blueprint. Others should take notice. And as much as Orel’s oreltory bugs me (see what I did there) he made some excellent observations. Two pitches you can locate where you want when you went can get the job done. My coaching early on was high and tight low and away. I could find both spots when I was 12. These guys should be able to do that just like Kersh and Wrobs do. But I suspect the Dodgers, and baseball in general, don’t teach that anymore. With hitting its launch angle and exit velocity, with pitching its velocity and whiff rate. This could be a teaching moment. Other pitchers on this staff might want to consider this strategy. Two who come immediately to mind are Roki and Henriquez. I’m sure there are others.

Slow day, so I decided to answer my own question about Muncy’s performance at the plate pre and post glasses: Muncy 2015 – 2024 before glasses, .228/.828 with 195 homers Prior to 4/30/25: Before glasses – 28 games, .180/.531 w/ 0 homers rest of 2025 stats, Post 4/30/25: with glasses – .71 games, 268/.969 w/ 19 homers 2026 – w/ glasses, 21 games, .303/.833 w/ 8 dingers. It seems like it’s easier to hit MLB pitching when you can see.

I have no problem with the inclusion of Cruz, but not Alveraz. Alveraz was signed by the Dodgers July 15, 2016. Assigned to Dodgers DSL July 30, 2016. Traded to Houston August 1, 2016. He never played one minute with the Dodgers. The rumor mill at the time was that the Dodgers wanted Josh Fileds and the Astros wanted Alveraz. The Dodgers knew they could outbid Houston and did, thus setting up the trade. There were some transactions (or those that did not go through) at that time that I did have inside info on, but that was not one of them. But it did sound reasonable to me.

Spot on Badger. I coached pitchers from day 1 to be able to throw a fastball strike low and away; in their sleep. It was our foundational pitch and set up everything else we did. It was a must and we worked at throw 75% strikes as a goal. 70% was typical, including chase pitches, for an outing. It can be done and being in the strike zone, challenging hitters was not a negative at the high school, legion and advanced travel ball level. That’s why a get so exasperated when I see 7+ walks in a game. Being effectively wild is one thing; being unable to command a pitch is something else.

“Hit the ball in the middle”

Cody Bellinger would still fit in the outfield. I follow this sort of thing as well. Most MLB rosters have a former Dodger draftee or international signee on them. A fair number of fringe/bench type guys, and bullpen arms.

The Dodgers have first world problems. Their 5th and 6th starters aren’t good. Their “closer” is hurt but they have 3 other guys who can close on the active roster. One of their young guys (Freeland) can’t hit. BUT Ohtani hasn’t looked like himself at the plate all year – but his pitching – WOW. Mookie hurt and wasn’t hitting before he went out. Top of lineup guys aren’t really hitting – Teo back to chasing junk out of the zone, Tucker is unimpressive (he has a long loopy swing). The most impressive thing to me is that they almost never beat themselves. They play such strong fundamental baseball. The defense is great. They make great decisions. I love watching this team play.

Of course something is going to go wrong. It always does. I just prefer to look at the team and expect them all to come through healthy. Not realistic, but I am not going to predict which player/pitcher is going to go down. I am an Alex Freeland fan, but I would never root for him over Kim. I want Kim to succeed so that the Dodgers succeed. But it is inevitable that at least one will be in OKC when Edman and Mookie return. I thought Kim won the battle out of ST, but the Dodgers saw otherwise, so I will not predict. Who knows what goes into those decisions. As far as Glasnow goes, I said between 23-26 starts. So technically, you are not disagreeing with me. If the Dodgers stick with a true 6 man, each SP would get 27 starts. The Dodgers will find a way to rest Glasnow during the summer. The Dodgers are going to want to get Ryan, Stone, and Knack some starts this summer, and undoubtedly before the deadline. AF/BG play the long game. I just do not assume that Glas is going to get injured. I think when Snell gets back, he will be good to go for the rest of the year. Maybe a start or two off in the summer. Ohtani has already pushed back a start a couple of days a couple of weeks back. I suspect that will happen again.

May 2, 2025 against Atlanta. https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2025-05-02/dodgers-muncy-eyewear

Bellinger, Seager, Joc