Let's Get Real

I think everyone has a "superpower." Unfortunately, some people don't know what theirs is. Mine? Simple... I'm a realist! I bloom where I am planted. I change what I can and don't try to change what I can't. I am in touch with my strengths and my weaknesses. I am not the smartest, fastest, or best at anything, but as my youngest son says, "If you want to beat my dad, you have to kill him." That could be my greatest strength... and weakness! Today, I sent him a 30-page plan for the next 10 years of US Water Systems. I also told him that I could not pull it off.... "even a young Mark Timmons could not pull it off. But you can!" I know my superpower, and it's that I have very little of it!

Which brings me to this: You can defend it all you want, but even Ray Charles can see that Kyle Tucker, Tanner Scott, and Edwin Diaz were not the normal Andrew Friedman moves. What is an Andrew Friedman move? Well, there are three (3) types: (1) Free Agent Signings; (2) Trades; and (3) Waiver Wire Pickups.

Just so we are clear, Mookie Betts was a trade plus extension, not a free-agent signing; Tyler Glasnow was a trade plus extension; Roki Sasaki was an international amateur signing. I’m keeping those out of the core list, so we’re comparing apples to apples rather than apples to Japanese posting rules. Here's a typical Andrew Friedman move: Trading Carlos Duran for Kris Bubic... who may ultimately play a large role in the Dodgers bullpen.

1. FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

Andrew Friedman’s Dodgers free-agent signings

2015 Brandon McCarthy 4/$48M; Brett Anderson 1/$10M; Brandon Beachy 1/$2.75M; Dustin McGowan 1-year non-guaranteed MLB deal

2016 Brett Anderson 1/$15.8M qualifying offer; Chase Utley 1/$7M; Scott Kazmir 3/$48M; Brandon Beachy 1/$1.5M; Kenta Maeda* 8/$25M guaranteed; Joe Blanton 1/$4M; Howie Kendrick 2/$20M; Louis Coleman 1/$725K; Yaisel Sierra 6/$30M

2017 Rich Hill 3/$48M; Justin Turner 4/$64M; Kenley Jansen 5/$80M; Sergio Romo 1/$3M; Chase Utley 1/$2M; Franklin Gutiérrez 1/$2.6M

2018Tom Koehler 1/$2M; Chase Utley 2/$2M

2019 David Freese 1/$4.5M; Hyun-Jin Ryu 1/$17.9M qualifying offer; Joe Kelly 3/$25M guaranteed; A.J. Pollock 4/$55M

2020 Blake Treinen 1/$10M; Alex Wood 1/$4M; Jimmy Nelson 1/$1.25M; Jake McGee MLB minimum/pro-rated after Colorado released him

2021 Trevor Bauer 3/$102M; Justin Turner 2/$34M; Blake Treinen 2/$17.5M; Tommy Kahnle 2-year deal; Albert Pujols 1-year minimum; Cole Hamels 1/$1M; Shane Greene 1-year minimum.

2022Freddie Freeman 6/$162M; Chris Taylor 4/$60M; Clayton Kershaw 1/$17M; Andrew Heaney 1/$8.5M; Daniel Hudson 1/$7M; Tyler Anderson 1/$8M; Hanser Alberto 1/$1.6M; Danny Duffy 1-year deal; Jimmy Nelson 1-year deal

2023 Clayton Kershaw 1/$20M; Noah Syndergaard 1/$13M; J.D. Martinez 1/$10M; David Peralta 1/$6.5M; Shelby Miller 1/$1.5M; Jimmy Nelson 1/$1.2M; Alex Reyes 1/$1.1M; plus in-season MLB deals for Austin Wynns and Jake Marisnick

2024 Shohei Ohtani 10/$700M; Yoshinobu Yamamoto* 12/$325M; Teoscar Hernández 1/$23.5M; Jason Heyward 1/$9M; Joe Kelly 1/$8M; James Paxton 1/$7M guaranteed; Ryan Brasier 2/$9M; Clayton Kershaw 1 year + player option; Kiké Hernández 1/$4M; Ricky Vanasco 1/$900K; in-season Nick Ahmed MLB deal.

2025 Blake Snell 5/$182M; Tanner Scott 4/$72M; Teoscar Hernández 3/$66M; Blake Treinen 2/$22M; Michael Conforto 1/$17M; Kirby Yates 1/$13M; Hyeseong Kim* 3/$12.5M; Clayton Kershaw 1/$7.5M; Kiké Hernández 1/$6.5M; plus short in-season MLB deals with Chris Stratton and José Ureña.

2026 Kyle Tucker 4/$240M; Edwin Díaz 3/$69M; Evan Phillips 1/$6.5M; Miguel Rojas 1/$5.5M; Kiké Hernández 1/$4.5M; Andy Ibáñez 1/$1.2M; Jake Cousins MLB deal in March; Jonathan Hernández MLB deal in May, then technically another FA signing in August after electing free agency.

* Maeda, Sierra, Yamamoto and Hyeseong Kim came through international/posted-player mechanisms. I include them because they were negotiated free-agent contracts rather than trades or draft acquisitions, but they are a separate category from ordinary MLB free agency.

Important players who are NOT on the list

This distinction matters a lot when judging Friedman:

Mookie Betts was acquired by trade and then signed a 12-year, $365 million extension.
Tyler Glasnow was acquired by trade and immediately extended.
Tommy Edman was acquired by trade and later extended.
Clayton Kershaw's 2018 three-year/$93M deal was negotiated before he exercised his opt-out, essentially an extension/reworking rather than a trip into free agency.
Roki Sasaki was an international amateur free agent, not an MLB free agent. Spotrac likewise classifies Ohtani as a free agent, Yamamoto as a “Free Agent Foreign Professional,” and Betts as an extension.

What jumps off the page

There are really two Friedman eras.

From 2015 through about 2020, Friedman was remarkably reluctant to hand out enormous long-term free-agent contracts. His biggest commitments were Jansen at $80M, Turner at $64M, Pollock at $55M, McCarthy/Kazmir/Hill at $48M apiece. He lived on shorter contracts, value plays, reclamation projects and retaining his own players.

Then the faucet opened:

Player Contract

Ohtani $700M

Yamamoto $325M

Tucker $240M

Snell $182M

Freeman $162M

Bauer $102M

Jansen $80M

Scott $72M

Díaz $69M

Teoscar $66M

And that gets directly to the point I raised earlier about “Let’s be pigs.” Friedman spent his first six years behaving more like a hedge-fund manager hunting inefficiencies. After 2020, Friedman increasingly began buying at the very top of the market.

I went contract by contract. My grades are based on value relative to cost, regular-season production, October contribution, availability, and whether the decision itself made sense. For active long-term deals, the grade is necessarily provisional.

The Friedman Free-Agent Report Card

Year Player / Contract Grade Verdict

2015 Brandon McCarthy, 4/$48M D Tommy John surgery almost immediately. Eventually contributed, but nowhere near $48M value.

Brett Anderson 1/$10M B+ One of Friedman's classic value bets. Gave LA 180⅓ innings and a 3.69 ERA.

2016 Brett Anderson, 1/$15.8M QO F Five appearances. Total wipeout.

Scott Kazmir, 3/$48M F One mediocre season, then essentially disappeared.

Kenta Maeda, 8/$25M guaranteed A Brilliant contract structure. Productive starter/reliever and eventually became a valuable trade asset.

Howie Kendrick, 2/$20M B- Useful, not spectacular.

Joe Blanton, 1/$4M A- Excellent 2016 bullpen value for peanuts.

Yaisel Sierra, 6/$30M F Never reached MLB. One of Friedman's forgotten disasters.

2017 Justin Turner, 4/$64M A+ Monster win. Star-level production at a very reasonable salary.

Kenley Jansen, 5/$80M A Elite closer for most of the contract and centerpiece of multiple pennant teams.

Rich Hill, 3/$48M A- Injuries, yes, but excellent when healthy and important in October. Those three contracts alone represented $192M in commitments.

Sergio Romo, 1/$3M D Didn't work. Cheap enough that it barely hurt.

Franklin Gutiérrez, 1/$2.6M F Essentially no value.

2018 Chase Utley, 2/$2M C+ Almost entirely leadership/clubhouse value by this point. Tiny financial risk.

2019 Hyun-Jin Ryu, 1/$17.9M QO A+ About 5 WAR and runner-up for the Cy Young. A spectacular one-year return.

A.J. Pollock, 4/$55M B- Not nearly as bad as remembered. Awful first postseason, but productive later and eventually useful as a trade asset. His 2019 postseason, however, was ghastly: 0-for-13 with 11 strikeouts.

Joe Kelly, 3/$25M B- Maddeningly inconsistent, but enough high-leverage and postseason value to save the grade.

David Freese, 1/$4.5M A Terrific hitter in a limited role.

2020 Blake Treinen, 1/$10M B+ Regular season was uneven, but he became an important piece of a championship bullpen.

Alex Wood, 1/$4M C+ Limited regular season, useful October work.

Jake McGee, minimum A Classic dumpster-dive-turned-gold signing.

2021 Trevor Bauer, 3/$102M F The first true post-"pigs" catastrophe. He pitched well, 2.59 ERA in 17 starts, but the Dodgers paid an enormous amount for effectively half a season.

Justin Turner, 2/$34M A- Still highly productive and worth the money.

Blake Treinen, 2/$17.5M B Dominant when available, but injuries ate into the second year.

Tommy Kahnle, 2/$5.25M D Essentially paid him to rehabilitate.

Albert Pujols, minimum A- Exactly what a minimum signing should be. Bench bat, clubhouse presence, crushed lefties.

2022 Freddie Freeman, 6/$162M A+One of the finest free-agent contracts in franchise history. 6.2 WAR immediately in 2022 and ultimately 2024 World Series MVP.

Chris Taylor, 4/$60M D- Sentimental re-signing that aged terribly. His decline began almost immediately.

Clayton Kershaw, 1/$17M A Excellent season at a completely reasonable price.

Tyler Anderson, 1/$8M A+ Perhaps Friedman's quintessential reclamation project. Became an All-Star and rotation anchor for $8M.

Andrew Heaney, 1/$8.5M B+ Injured, but dramatically improved when healthy.

Daniel Hudson, 1/$7M B Excellent before the ACL injury.

2023 Clayton Kershaw, 1/$20M A- 13-5, excellent regular season. NLDS ending was ugly, but the contract delivered.

J.D. Martinez, 1/$10M A+ 33 HR, 103 RBI, .893 OPS for ten million bucks. Highway robbery.

Noah Syndergaard, 1/$13M F One of the clearer failures of the reclamation-project philosophy.

David Peralta, 1/$6.5M B- Fine role player.

Shelby Miller, 1/$1.5M A- Very good return on virtually no investment.

2024 Shohei Ohtani, 10/$700M A+ Absurd headline number, but already worth it. MVP seasons, historic offense, pitching value returning, enormous off-field economics, and two championships.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 12/$325M A+ Looking better by the month. 2025 World Series MVP and already 11+ bWAR through 2026. His Game 7 relief work in the 2025 Series alone belongs in Dodger mythology.

Teoscar Hernández, 1/$23.5M A+ 33 HR, 99 RBI and a major part of the 2024 championship. Perfect one-year signing.

Jason Heyward, 1/$9M D+ Fell off sharply and was DFA'd.

Joe Kelly, 1/$8M D+ Injury and inconsistency.

James Paxton, ~$7M guaranteed C+ Ate innings before being DFA'd. Not pretty, but served a purpose.

Ryan Brasier, 2/$9M B- Reasonable bullpen value.

Clayton Kershaw D+ Injury destroyed most of the value in 2024.

Kiké Hernández, 1/$4M A-Regular season meh, October Kiké priceless.

2025 Blake Snell, 5/$182M B Availability has been lousy, but his pitching when healthy has been elite and his 2025 postseason helped win a championship. In 2025 he had a 2.35 ERA in the regular season and 3.18 ERA over 34 postseason innings.

Tanner Scott, 4/$72M C* 2025 was a disaster: 4.74 ERA, 10 blown saves. But 2026 has changed the picture considerably, with a 2.67 ERA, 1.7 WAR and 21 saves through early September.

Teoscar Hernández, 3/$66M C* The reunion hasn't matched 2024. In 2026 he's at .257/.323/.403, .726 OPS and just 0.2 WAR. Two-way risk because defense is declining too.

Blake Treinen, 2/$22M D+ Poor 2025, somewhat better in 2026. Too much money for the innings/value received.

Michael Conforto, 1/$17M F.1 99/.305/.333, 79 OPS+, -0.7 WAR. There isn't much lipstick available for this pig.

Kirby Yates, 1/$13M F 5-plus ERA territory and negative value. Expensive bullpen whiff.

Hyeseong Kim, 3/$12.5M A- Cheap, versatile, athletic and already produced meaningful surplus value.

Clayton Kershaw, 1/$7.5M A- At that price, excellent return in his final season.

2026 Kyle Tucker, 4/$240M F This is the elephant wearing Dodger Blue. Through early September, roughly replacement-level production with a sub-.700 OPS from a $60M-a-year player. There is still plenty of contract left, but Year 1 has been a catastrophe.

Edwin Díaz, 3/$69M F Even worse so far. 11.85 ERA in 13⅔ innings, elbow surgery, another IL stint and almost no return on the highest-AAV reliever deal in MLB history.

The really interesting part

The "Let's be pigs" thesis actually has something to it, although I would make one important distinction.

Friedman's original quote after the 2020 championship was:

"Let's be pigs, let's do everything we can to go out next year and do it again."

He was talking about an organizational obsession with winning again, not literally announcing that the Dodgers would start buying every expensive player available. In fact, I made that same distinction myself on LADT in January 2021.

But look at what happened afterward.

Friedman 1.0: The bargain hunter

His greatest weapons were:

Turner, Hill, Jansen, Maeda, Ryu, Tyler Anderson, J.D. Martinez, Treinen, Joe Blanton, Jake McGee.

He found undervalued players, structured contracts cleverly and generally avoided paying retail.

That version of Friedman was terrifyingly good.

Friedman 2.0: The whale hunter

Then came:

Bauer $102M
Freeman $162M
Ohtani $700M
Yamamoto $325M
Snell $182M
Scott $72M
Teoscar $66M
Tucker $240M
Díaz $69M

That's an entirely different animal.

And the results have become extremely polarized.

Freeman, Ohtani and Yamamoto: spectacular.

Bauer: catastrophe.

Snell: brilliant when physically present.

Scott: awful Year 1, strong rebound Year 2.

Teoscar: declining.

Tucker: disastrous Year 1.

Díaz: disastrous Year 1.

That is why I would not say "Friedman suddenly forgot how to build a baseball team." I'd say something more specific:

The Dodgers became so wealthy that Friedman could stop shopping primarily for value and start shopping for certainty. The trouble is that the most expensive aisle in baseball doesn't actually sell certainty.

And pitching has been the landmine garden. McCarthy, Kazmir, Bauer, Syndergaard, Scott's first year, Treinen's later deal, Yates and now Díaz represent a startling amount of money spent on arms that broke, collapsed or both.

My overall Friedman free-agent grade

2015-2020: A-

The guy was a value-creation machine.

2021-2023: B+

Freeman, Anderson and Martinez offset Bauer, Taylor and Syndergaard.

2024: A++

Ohtani + Yamamoto + Teoscar + championship. You couldn't draw it up better.

2025: C+

Snell's October heroics matter enormously, but Scott, Conforto, Yates and Treinen burned a mountain of money.

2026 to date: D-

Tucker and Díaz were supposed to be the filet mignon of free agency. So far they've arrived at the table looking suspiciously like Spam.

Overall Friedman free-agent grade: B+

And here's the kicker: without Freeman, Ohtani and Yamamoto, that grade falls off a cliff. Those three monumental successes mask a surprisingly large graveyard of bad free-agent contracts.

MORE TO FOLLOW...

OKC Comets 7 – Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Houston) 4 

In the 4th, 3B Ryan Fitzgerald singled.  2B Hyeseong Kim walked.  SS Noah Miller hit a sac bunt moving 2 runners in scoring position.  LF Chris Newell hit a 2-run single. 

RF Zach Ehrhard hit a solo HR, his 20th on the season.  

LHSP Cole Irvin pitched 5.0 scoreless innings. RHRP Jake Cousins pitched a scoreless 6th, with a BB and a K.  

In the 7th, RHRP Ben Casparius gave up a one out single and double.  One run scored on a fielder’s choice and 1 scored on a SF. 

CF Alek Thomas 1 out BB.  Ehrhard singled Thomas to 3rd.  Ehrhard steals 2nd, and both runners scored on a single from 1B Ryan Ward.  Fitzgerald followed with a 2-run HR (14). 

In the 8th, RHRP Paul Gervase gave up a 2-run HR. 

RHRP Jonathan Hernández pitched a scoreless 9th for his 2nd save.  

·      Zach Ehrhard – 3-4, 2 runs, 1 RBI, HR (20)

·      Ryan Fitzgerald – 2-4, 2 runs, 2 RBI, HR (14)

·      Alek Thomas – 1-3, 1 BB, 1 run, double (18) 

Box Score 

Tulsa Drillers 7 – NW Arkansas Naturals (KC) 5 

2B Taylor Young, LF Josue De Paula, CF Mike Sirota, and DH Jake Gelof each walked with Young scoring.  RF Jake Myers singled with JDP scoring but Sirota was thrown out at home.  SS Elijah Hainline walked to load the bases and 3B Logan Wagner walked the 3rd run in.  Myers scored their 4th run on a SF. 

LHSP Adam Serwinowski did not have his finest effort.  In the first a single, a groundout, and a RBI single gave NWA a run.  In the 3rd inning, Serwinowski gave up a double and single in the 3rd, and a triple and SF in the 4th.  

In the 6th, C Frank Rodriguez doubled to lead off the inning.  2 K.  JDP walked and Sirota was HBP to load the bases.  Gelof walked for one run.  Myers hit a RBI single, and Hainline drew a BB to plate the 3rd run of the inning. 

RHRP Christian Ruebeck pitched a scoreless 5th.  In the 6th, RHRP Kelvin Ramirez.  A BB, double, and groundout brought home a run for NWA. 

LHRP Evan Shaw pitched a pair of scoreless innings in the 7th and 8th.  

RHRP Carson Hobbs gave up one run in the 9th, but not enough to stop the Drillers win. 

·      Kole Myers – 3-4, 1 BB, 1 run, 2 RBI

·      Frank Rodriguez – 1-4, 1 run, 1 RBI, double (8) 

Box Score

Great Lakes Loons 6 – Dayton Dragons (Reds) 0 

In Game 1 of the Midwest League playoffs, RHSP Tyler Gough did not dominate, but he did not allow a run in his 5.0 IP. 8 runners reached base in his 5.0 IP.  6 hits and 2 BB to go with his 6 K. 

The Loons bats busted out very quickly.  In the 1st inning, LF Charles Davalan led off with a double.  CF Eduardo Quintero slugged a 2-run HR, and SS Emil Morales followed with a solo HR.  3 batters in, the Loons had a 3-0 lead.  

3B Mairo Martinus kept the longball going with a solo HR leading off the 2nd.  Davalan drew a 1 out BB and moved to 3rd on a double from Quintero.  Davalan scored on a SF for a 5-0 lead.  

The Loons picked up a 6th run in the 5th, 2B Nico Perez led off with a single.  With one out, 3B Eduardo Guerrero singled with Perez moving to 3rd.  Perez scored the 6th run on a groundout. 

LHRP Cody Morse pitched a scoreless 6th inning.  RHRP Robby Porco pitched a scoreless 7th.  Going back out in the 8th, Porco walked the first two hitters on the inning.  LHRP Matt Lanzendorfer struck out the first two batters he faced.  Walked a batter to load the bases, but got the final out of the inning. 

RHRP Dilan Figueredo pitched a scoreless 9th in a non-save situation, but preserved the shutout.  

·      Eduardo Quintero – 2-4, 1 run, 2 RBI, double, HR

·      Nico Perez – 2-3, 1 BB, 1 run, double

·      Charles Davalan – 1-3, 1 BB, 2 runs, double

·      Emil Morales – 1-3, 1 run, 2 RBI, SF, HR

·      Mairo Martinus – 1-3, 1 BB, 1 run, 1 RBI, HR  

Great Lake Loons have a 1-0 lead in the playoffs.  Game 2 will be in Dayton, as will Game 3, if necessary. 

Box Score 

Lake Elsinore Storm (San Diego) 6 – Ontario Tower Buzzers 3 

First game of the California Legue playoffs.  Lake Elsinore scored the first run of the game in the 1st inning.  A pair of BB to lead off the inning, and then a RBI single gave the Storm a 1-0 lead.  

The Storm scored 4 unearned runs in the 4th.  With one out, the second batter reached on an error.  A HBP and single loaded the bases.  A run scored on a groundout, that was followed by 2-run single and a RBI double.  

In the bottom of the 4th, 1B Easton Shelton slugged a solo HR. 

In the 6th, RHRP Brady Pendley gave up a HR.  

In the bottom of the 7th, Shelton led off with a single.  With 1 out, SS Caleb Johnson hit a 2-run HR. 

RHRP Jholbran Herder pitched in the 9th.  He gave up a leadoff single, a BB, and a HBP to load the bases.  A SF scored 1 run, and a 3-run HR gave the Storm 4 runs. 

Down 10-3 in the bottom of the 9th, Johnson hit his 2nd HR. With 2 out, C Connor O’Neal, CF Kyeler Thompson, and 2B Kellon Lindsey all walked.  LF Ching-Hsien Ko doubled home a pair, and 3B Joendry Vargas hit a 3-run HR.  Down 10-9, Ontario had the right batter up, but Shelton struck out to end the game. 

·      Ching-Hsien Ko – 2-5, 1 run, 2 RBI, double

·      Easton Shelton – 3-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI, double, HR

·      Caleb Johnson – 2-4, 2 runs, 3 RBI, 2 HR

·      Joendry Vargas – 1-5, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR 

Game 2 will be played in Lake Elsinore on Thursday. 

Box Score