Let s Build a New Building To House All the Rumors

Mark Timmons: “I have targeted Marcell Ozuna as a player I want”.

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Yeah, nothing but the best for us Dodger fans! Just like me at the pistol range targeting a Hillary or Lois Lerner silhouette . Nothing but the best! All kidding aside, it sure does seem like we could match up pretty well with Miami on Ozuna and/or Yelich.

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Good debate on maximizing “trade value” on last thread. 50/50 on perception of future value going up or down on a player tells me we don’t have a clue what FAZ is cooking up.

1 – I agree that the Dodgers need a RH power bat in the OF. I would prefer JD Martinez to Ozuna. I fear that this year is an outlier for Ozuna. Here hare the past 3 year’s numbers for Ozuna and for Martinez:

Ozuna—– HR —– BA —–OPS

2014——-23——–.269—-.772

2015——10———.259—–.691

2016——-23——–.266—–.773

Martinez

2014——23———.315—–.912

2015——-38——–.282—-.879

2016——–22——-.307—–.908

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What about this year?

Ozuna—–15——-.322—–.949

Martinez—10—–.289——1.125 (He’s just off of the DL)

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Martinez’ numbers are better in his career and Ozuna has never put up particularly good numbers until this year. Is this just the year that he’s coming into his own, or is this just an outlier and he’s ready to revert to the mean? I don’t know.

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I fear that you may be right about the need for a LHP in the ‘pen. Liberatore and Avilan can’t seem to stay healthy and Dayton seems to have lost what he had last year.

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I don’t know if Joc is salvageable either. I could see the Dodgers trading him as part of a package to get what they need. Same with Forsythe who has not impressed so far this year (and it would give Taylor a place to play – he’s not a CF). I’m still not so sure they unload Maeda. The Dodgers’ model for building a rotation is to prefer quantity over quality and given the number of injuries and the risk of ineffectiveness of the hordes of starters, they need lots of arms. I could see them tinkering with Maeda to see if he could be rehabilitated so that when (not if) McCarthy, Hill, Ryu, Wood et. al. go down, they can plug him back in.

Pederson is not the natural hitter that Bellinger is. The adjustments he has made over these few years leads me to the conclusion that he is no where close to figuring it out. Paralysis by analysis, for sure. He probably will figure it out eventually, but for another team. We know the power is there but the contact is not. Losing him in trade would be no loss for the team, but the return, at this point, will be minor leaguers, and not top ones, at that. At the risk of pissing a lot of you off, Urias is no longer untouchable. I think the team has seen something in him that it knows may take time to play out. I still think he is a couple of years away from cracking a starting rotation, be it our’s or someone else’s. It’s probably more of a maturity thing than a pitching thing, but his pitching has regressed. This may be due to his sporadic use, but I think that is just an excuse. He is NOT ABLE to make the pitches necessary for success. I’ve seen a lot of young pitchers lately, about his age, and they are WAY BETTER than he is. Look at the Rockies and all of its young starters. They are terrific. Minnesota. It seems that quite a few teams have young 20somethings in their starting rotations, and they are better than Urias. Anyway, he is no longer untouchable, in my opinion. I can’t see this team beating the Rockies. They are loaded. The Tulowiski deal and some of the others have yielded some players who are major league good. Senzatella. Hoffman. Gray. The bullpen is loaded with bruiser type, 96mph guys. The Rockies will win going away. Our best hope is the wild card.

YAZ says he is looking for pitching. What it really means is he is not looking for pitching. He has three left handed relievers. They are Dayton. Avilan and Liberatore. Joc has to be included in the trade. It is time to move on from Joc. He has had three years to prove himself. He cannot hit lefties. So at best he is a platoon player. Some of you throw out stats that he was the third best player last year. I am not a stat person. I think BA, HR, and OBP tells me all I want to know. Joc fails in 2 out of 3. I do not know if Joc, Calhoun, and Verdugo would get it done or not. I would add Oaks if I had to.

I would nix any trade involving Alverez. But then, ya’ll are so much smarter than me. But then Ozuna doesn’t leave me breathless either.

Good takes all around, hard to say what Faz will do and what other teams want from players being shopped and what the return would be. Faz has shown patience in the past to wait for a decent return. I think Joc is fixable but he has to cut down that big swing, take the ball the other way and have a better plan when he walks to the plate. I could say the same thing about Puig but at least he has made some progress this year on his plate approach.

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I like Ozuna but the price will be steep, JD Martinez would be cheaper as a rental and his defense was not good last year but was better in previous seasons. He could be what they thought they were getting in Gutierrez, a RH bat to play against LHP in LF. SVS and JG have not filled that role very well and neither has Eibner. Kike has lost the CF spot to Taylor but could play there if a deal can’t be made. Maybe someone in the minors can step up like Dickson or Segedin if he ever gets healthy.

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I agree with several that Maeda is good insurance for the likely injuries to other starters. Urias has too much potential to be discarded just yet, he has the tools and needs to refine them. He needs to challenge hitters and work his off speed pitches in the strike zone better to set up his fastball.

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Forsythe has been a disappointment but has also not been fully healthy to get his rythym going. He had 20 HR’s last year but has been striking out way too much and his power has deserted him. For now a platoon with Utley seems likely with JT coming back and Kike will get some AB’s there. JT will also need frequent days off to keep him healthy and playing down the stretch.

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A LH relief pitcher should not cost too much and is needed with the current health and performance of the 3 guys they have now. Romo is expendable and has no trade value. Hatcher eats innings, is inconsistent and expendable but his trade value uncertain.

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Dodgers get the Reds and the pitching match ups strongly favor the Blue. They are fresh off a sweep of the Cards, have won 4 in a row and are only 2 games out of 1st place. Dodgers need to take care of business because the Rocks and Snakes are playing very well.

AC: the point is that Urias is not ready to be a starting pitcher in the big leagues. Maybe at 22/24 he will be. That’s why he is not untouchable. And he apparently doesn’t like the minors right now. Roberts and his people have said he has some learning to do. I see a kid who is easily frustrated. And he shows it on the field. If the price is right, I think he is gone. A proven power bat will do it.

Colorado winning again – 5-3 over Cubs in 9th

They are not going away

For this exercise, I have arbitrarily selected 25 and under to be considered young. Of all the hitters 25 and under on the 40 man or at AAA, every one of them is LH. Joc (25), Toles (25), Edwin Rios (23), Corey Seager (23), Willie Calhoun (22), Alex Verdugo (21), Cody Bellinger (21). Okay I cheated a little, Rios is in AA, but IMO he should be at AAA. There are no “young” RH hitters on the 40 Man or AAA. Trayce Thompson, Yasiel Puig, and Kike’ Hernandez are the closest at 26. So I have adjusted my thinking a little on the need of a RH power bat. I was inclined to go with a rental for 2017 because the cost would not be as great. But with no clear RH hitter in the pipeline, the need to go outside the organization is greater than the less cost in prospects for a rental (Cain or Martinez). So I am inclined to agree that the Dodgers should aggressively pursue Marcell Ozuna. At 26 and team controlled through the 2019 season, the cost will be tough, but a solid RH bat is a necessity, not a want. I do not believe there are any other youngish RH hitters that may be available other than Ozuna.

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Most of the talent evaluators are saying the Dodgers are going for pitching. They probably are. But for 2017, I would prefer the RH OF bat. The Rockies, Cardinals, and Blue Jays figure to look at OF help at the trade deadline. Probably only the Rockies have the prospects that can force a bidding up of Marcell’s value. The Cardinals do not have a deep farm system, and they will be without any draft picks until Round 3 this year because of Dexter Fowler and cheating. So I cannot see them offering some of their top talent for Ozuna. I do not believe the Blue Jays have a realistic chance for the playoffs, and I do not believe that they will spend much of their talent pool for Ozuna on an outside chance.

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The Dodgers can put together a nice package of players on the current roster and prospects to get him. The Marlins have arguably the worst farm system in MLB. They are also 28th in MLB in attendance. Only Oakland and Tampa are worse. I do not see how Yadier Alveraz is not included in any deal for Ozuna. And while I know there is some bad blood between Mattingly and Puig, this might be one of those situations where Loria tells Mattingly to back off or else. Loria needs fans in the stands, and Puig gives him more of an opportunity than Mattingly. If the Marlins only want prospects, then Yusniel Diaz is logical.

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I posted this yesterday, but since Mark made Ozuna the subject today, I thought that I might repeat it.

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For 2017, in 248 PA Ozuna is batting .323/.327/.570/.957. He has 15 HR and 41 RBI. His OPS+ against league average is 157.

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With 2 outs and RISP (30 PA), he is batting .391/.533/.652/1.186.

With the game late and close (35 PA), he is batting .323/.400/.355/.755.

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He hits both RHP and LHP. Against RHP he is .310/.363/.587/.950. Against LHP he is .385/.489/.487/.977. Much smaller sample size because there are not as many LHP in the NL East, but he looks like he can handle LHP.

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His BA is greater than .300 in every inning except the 6th (.241) and 9th (.143). The 9th makes sense, since the Marlins are often losing, and are facing a lot of closers.

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His BAbip for 2017 is .363. With 0 outs it is .315, with 1 out .429, and with 2 out .352. Bottom line, there are not too many holes in his 2017 production. How many of those close low scoring games might he have made a difference?

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If the Dodgers 26 year old RH OF was putting up those numbers, we might not be having this discussion. But he isn’t. Instead while some think that this year may be an outlier year for Ozuna, others are still saying that Puig is going to reincarnate his 2013 & 2014 seasons. I am still waiting on Puig, while Ozuna is doing it and then some.

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Ozuna is not going anywhere until after the All-Star Game. The game is in Miami, and Ozuna is likely to be the lone Marlins All-Star. And since the Marlins will be hosting the Dodgers the first weekend after the All-Star Game, the earliest anything will happen with Ozuna will be July 17.

Dylan Hernandez, whose reputation is much higher than my estimation, has a nice look at the next (after Verdugo/Calhoun/Oaks) generation of prospects:

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DODGERS REINSTATE JUSTIN TURNER

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LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today reinstated third baseman Justin Turner from the 10-day disabled list and optioned outfielder Brett Eibner to Triple-A Oklahoma City.

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Turner, who missed 19 games with a right hamstring strain, appeared in one rehab game with Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on Monday going 1-for-3 with an RBI. In 39 games with Los Angeles this season, he is batting .379 with 18 runs, 13 doubles, one home run and 17 RBI. Prior to his stint on the DL, he led the Major Leagues in batting average, while ranking among the senior circuit in hits (53, T-1st), doubles (T-2nd), on-base percentage (.453, 3rd) and hit by pitches (7, T-4th).

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In 17 games with the Dodgers this season, Eibner has gone 6-for-33 (.182) with two home runs and six RBI.

Taylor

Seaver

Turner

Gutierrez

Logan

Barnes

Bellinger

Kike

Hill

DODGERS REINSTATE LUIS AVILAN

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LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today reinstated left-handed pitcher Luis Avilán from the 10-day disabled list and placed right-handed pitcher Sergio Romo on the 10-day disabled list (retroactive to June 8) with a left ankle sprain.

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Luis Avilán, who missed 14 games with left triceps soreness, last pitched on June 6 in a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City against Iowa (Cubs), striking out one in a perfect inning. He made two rehab appearances with the OKC Dodgers, allowing two runs in 2.0 innings, while striking out three against one walk. Avilán has made 23 relief appearances this season for Los Angeles, going 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA (5 ER/15.0 IP) and has struck out 20 batters against eight walks.

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Romo, 34, will make his first stint on the disabled list this season after going 1-1 with a 6.41 ERA (14 ER/19.2 IP) in 24 games in his first season with the Dodgers. He has struck out 23 batters against nine walks in 19.2 innings, while holding batters to a .240 average.

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Hill – a BB

his own error

a run

great

The good news is that Hill went 5 and Maeda went 4.

We are having problems with the blog this morning. I can’t post a new blog, so….

Minor League Report:

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Joc Pederson hit a solo HR in his first AB at AAA, Willie Calhoun also hit his 12th. Freeman was 3-4 at SS and Maggi was 4-4. The final was 12-6 in favor of OKC and it was at Round Rock where the ball flies!

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Tulsa lost 5-3. I notice that Fernandez is hitting .313.Spitzbarth pitched 2 shutout innings.

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RC lost 4-0 and Santana had his second poor start in a row, but his ERA is still at 2.90. Nothing else to see here. Move along!

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GL beat the South Bend Cubs 4-0. Here’s what I don’t get: South Bend is in Northern Indiana. North Vernon is in Southern Indiana and French Lick is not what you think it is. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. Sheffield pitched 5 shutout innings. Rincon hit his 10th HR and Hanson hit a 3 run shot. Cruz and Ruiz each had 2 hits.

A Few Takeaways From Last Night

1. Gutierrez is a difference maker, when healthy. Can he stay that way?

2. Hill is not easy to hit. As soon as he is comfortable he will lights out!

3. Maeda’s trade value just soared…. I’m just saying….

4. It’s nice to have JT back.

5. Cody needs to sit a couple of games.

The Yankees want Forsythe and the Dodgers have Taylor and Utley.

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The Yankees absolutely suck at first base.

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Forsythe and Gonzales and Maeda and Hatcher to the Yankees for Betances.

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Puig and McCarthy and Verdugo for Matt Harvey.

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Alvarez and Diaz and Maeda for Osuna

Urias tonight.

The pitching match up favors the Dodgers again greatly today if their bats cooperate. Wood will probably come back lights out as long as he gets past the 1st inning or two command wise. For some reason the Dodgers have their way with the Reds, but Peraza and Schebler would love to do some damage.

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Roster move needed to activate Wood and with FG having a big game it will be a pitcher either optioned or to the DL. Fields and Morrow have pitched well and Dayton is needed as a LHP in the pen, so it looks like Hatcher will join Romo with an injury of some kind, just my gut feeling. They are carrying 13 pitchers and will not go to 14 so someone has to go later in the day. Romo and Eibner were the most expendable pieces and were very good moves yesterday.

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When Joc is ready there will be another move needed and then FG vs Forsythe would seem to be an easy call as positional versatility favors Forsythe plus his veteran and contract status. Kike came through with a HR and seems to have passed Puig in RF against LHP for now. Not sure if the extra offense makes up for his defense as Puig is near elite in RF. Utley needs to keep playing against RHP and Taylor needs to be in there most every day. JT will need days off and Forsythe can slide over against RHP with Utley at 2B. Kike could also play LF against LHP and Bellinger play 1B to give AGon a day off. Or a 10 day DK stint for someone which the Dodgers have done pretty well at picking.

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Every one of Bums trade proposals is an overpay, although trading Forsythe would be ok with me. Only problem is whatever they get back from the Yankees is essentially for De Leon.

While waiting on server issues to be remedied, a couple of comments on discussions above and other random thoughts.

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1. Thanks to Bluto for that Dylan Hernandez article. I do not subscribe to the LA Times so I do not get a chance to read him much. But I do respect his knowledge of the game and Dodgers. Most of the players in his article should not be a surprise to many on this site. They have certainly been discussed. What I was most pleased about was Dylan’s inclusion of Caleb Ferguson. Other than minor league junkies like myself, he goes largely unnoticed. He was not a high draft pick and does not get a lot of attention. But if there is a dark horse candidate to make it to the ML, it is Caleb Ferguson. I have been pulling for him since his Great Lakes days.

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There was one comment about Yadier Alveraz that caught my eye…”There has also been a cultural adjustment. Alvarez, who politely declined to be interviewed for this column, has developed a reputation for showing up late to the ballpark.” We have seen this before. I hope this gets nipped in the bud at Rancho. If Drew Saylor cannot accomplish that, I am not sure who can. There is no question that Yadier Alveraz has a superstar arm. But superstars also need superstar heads and hearts. Time will tell if Yadier can develop those as well as his arm.

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2. Box, I am one to say “never say never”, but there is no way, no how the Marlins would trade Ozuna and Yelich for Wood, Peterson, and Diaz. Many (if not most) consider Alveraz untouchable. I am okay with that, but there is no way that the Dodgers will get Ozuna without Alveraz. They will either have to find their RH bat elsewhere, or hope and pray that Puig is able to resurrect his 2013/2014 season. Not likely. He might in Miami, but not in LA. I do find it interesting that so many want the FO to stay patient on Puig on hoping that he can be that 2013/2014 player, but have no patience for Joc to return to his 2nd half 2016 season. I am not an apologist for Joc, but it does smack of double standard. This was not directed to anyone in particular, or any particular statement. It is just an observation from comments I have read on this site and others.

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3. Dodgerrick asked, “Do you believe, like Mark, that he (Ozuna) is a player who is coming into his own.” I do. You have often sited (criticized?) when FAZ has chosen to stay with unproven prospects rather than use them to acquire proven ML players. This is one of those times. With no RH bat anywhere close to the ML in the Dodger organization, IMO he is worth the risk that he will continue with his bat this year, and two additional years going into FA (just in time for DJ Peters). There is always risk in every trade. I have not heard anyone say that the Dodgers do not need a RH bat to help propel them closer to the WS this year. So if not Ozuna, who? You mentioned JD Martinez. He will definitely be on the Dodgers radar, and will cost less than Ozuna, but he will not be cheap, and the Dodgers will not re-sign him. While I personally like Lorenzo Cain, he is a long-shot, and does not have power. Braun is still possible, but his health and contract say no. Admittedly, I have no idea where a RH bat will come from if not from Ozuna, Martinez, Cain, Braun, or Puig. I am hoping for Ozuna, but I am betting on that it will be Puig.

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4. It is great to see the Giants fall so far down. There is a selloff coming. Eduardo Nunez’ days as a Giant are numbered. It will be interesting to see what happens with Cueto, Melancon, and Moore (LHP are always wanted). The Nats are looking at Melancon again. I think it is possible that Pence will be moved as well.

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5. Every team in the AL still has hopes on the Wild Card. The White Sox are the last team in the Wild Card Standings, but are only 6 games out. In the NL, only one team is within 6 games of the wild card (Cubs at 5.5 games out). I do not expect a lot of early July trades, especially from the AL. There should be a boatload of moves the last week in July.

I thought Hill’s mechanics were not good. He throws standing very upright. His follow through is hardly ever square. It looks sometimes like he is falling backward. This causes the fastball to sail. No 2 motions in a row are the same. Total inconsistency. High pitch counts. I’m sure the coaches are working with him, but until he has a consistent and balanced pitching motion, I don’t see him keeping his spot in the rotation. Unless we keep running out pitching lines like we did with Maeda last night.

Bobby and Vegas I agree. Very little follow through. I thought Wood’s motion was a little weird, but Hill is really weird. Nothing is the same. If you cannot repeat your throwing motion I do see how he can have good command. Did Wood have a start in the minors before tonight’s game? If he did not, that is a shame.

Maeda looked really good last night. He attack the strike zone. The HR was just a good hit. Maeda wanted it down just a little more, but a pretty good pitch.

I am starting to see something good come out of puting starters in he bull pen. When they come in they have to attack the strik zone. It happened with Ryu and it happens with Maeda. When Ryu came back as a starter he attacked the strike zone right away. Put Hill in the pen and let Maeda start the next time.

I think Roberts speaks a little Japanese and isn’t his mother Japanese? Maeda is inexpensive and Japanese. Shohei Otani may like that the Dodgers have both Maeda and Roberts enough to sign with them for 2018. Let’s hold off trading Maeda. Maybe the Dodgers should trade for Yu Darvish.

Tonight’s Lineup

1) Utley- 2B

2) Seager- SS

3)Taylor- CF

4) AGon- 1B

5) Cody- LF

6) Grandal- C

7) Forsythe- 3B

8) Puig- RF

9) Wood- P

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JT out of the lineup already? Other than that I like it.