Let’s face it, over the past several seasons’ Dodger fans have been spoiled. The team has both excited and exasperated us. Nine division titles in 10 years, 3 World Series, and one World Championship in a shortened season that was probably one of the hardest seasons for both fans and players to live through. Favorite players leaving by either free agency or trade. Just a trying and exhilarating 10-year span. But in hindsight, have we come to expect too much? Last year most fans felt the Dodgers would roll into the World Series without any problem whatsoever. So, what happened? It is easy to look back and place blame. But in my mind, we expected too much.
On paper, they were the elite of baseball. Based on projections, they were going to win the division handily, they did better than that, they dominated. Then they were supposed to roll through the playoffs and dismantle any American League opponent. Whoops. But most of us here are adults. We should realize there is no Dodger blue Santa who is just going to bring us presents. We would like a Reynolds or Adames-type player; some are screaming for a legitimate closer. But few are just willing to trust Freidman’s judgment and ability to evaluate his options.
Also, puzzling is the contempt shown for Gavin Lux’s ability to play SS at the major league level. This is based on a very small sampling of 68 games at the position in his short time in the majors. Equally puzzling is the anointing of Vargas as an MLB hitter in his also very small sampling. Yep, the guy has hit everywhere he has played. But we all should know by now with what we have seen, that hitting in the minors does not always translate to the majors. He is a top prospect for sure and is penciled in to be the starting third baseman.
Nobody has a clue as to how both will perform under the pressure cooker that is an MLB pennant race. Another conundrum is the fans refusal to face the fact that the Dodgers are indeed trying to stay under the CBT ceiling. If they had no compunction about staying under, they would have indeed signed one of the premier free agents and not worried about paying the tax. I have to believe this season is all about re-setting the tax, and maybe making a run at Ohtani, or if nothing else, signing Urias to a four- or five-year deal. I doubt they go longer than that. Just like I believe there is no way AF signs another player to a deal like Mookie’s. That is also the reason, I do not think they will in all reality sign Ohtani. That much money for one player, even one with his talents, is just absurd.
Busch, Outman, Vargas, Lux, are all going to get a long look at their respective positions this spring. And we the fans will not know what the 26-man roster is going to look like until the morning of the season opener. Heyward, Duggars and Zimmer, were not signed to just be in the minors. They were signed to see if they could possibly help the team when needed. Heyward has probably the best chance of this trio of making the team. He at least at one point in his career performed at the top level in the league. Can he do it again? Remains to be seen. But I would not just write a player with his skill set off.
Fans can make trades in their minds that they feel would make the team better. But in all reality, there is no one player who is going to automatically make them the favorites to win the whole thing. If the Mets signing of Carlos Correa gets finalized, and MLB.TV analysts believe it will with some tweaks in language, on paper, they are a powerhouse. With some finite cracks in the armor. Their everyday lineup is pretty solid. Their pitching rotation features a couple of Cy Young winners who have done so multiple times. But both are on the wrong side of 35. And both have had nagging injuries in the recent past.
Dodger fans have also groused about the fact that with the exception of the Rockies, the other three teams in the division have made several moves in an attempt to improve while it seems that with the exception of a starting pitcher, a back end of the bullpen pitcher and a full time DH, they have not addressed what the fans perceive as the biggest holes. 3B, SS, LF and CF. With the exception of Vargas at third, they feel the other 3 positions need serious upgrades. They are not really willing to trust the judgement of those at the helm.
Well, that is their right. Many times, in the past, I put myself in the GM’s shoes and really thought I could do better. But it really doesn’t get much better than those we have had leading the team for the last several years. This run is unprecedented in Dodger history. No fans of Dodger baseball have experienced this much success or winning in that many seasons. Oh, the Brooklyn teams of the late 40’s and 50’s were very good and went to the World Series seven times. It was easier to get there back then. Just win the league. They won two of those, 55, 59. They played the Yankees six of those seven. They would then win 2 more in the early sixties. Then there was a drought from 67-80 before they finally won in 81.
Dave Roberts takes much of the heat for their losses in both the playoffs, and the World Series. But his teams, in much tougher circumstances, have won 100 or more games four times. Alston only did it twice. Lasorda, once. They also have played in more meaningful postseason games than either of those two managers did. If you take away the tainted 2017 loss, Roberts has won one and lost one. I readily admit, he has made some moves in the postseason that have had me shaking my head in wonder. But there is no denying his ability to get his team into the playoffs, and you have to get there to have a chance. For the haters and doubters, you are stuck with the guy. He knows how to manage egos. And he is the perfect frontman for this team. And the only opinion that matters in this case is the opinion of his employers. If they feel he has lost his clubhouse, he will be gone.
Ultimately, the onus is on those who are on the field. If you are in the game, you need to perform to the best of your ability. One of the best SS in the league made a crucial error in a pivotable game, and it ended up costing them the game. He makes that play, they are out of the inning and no one scores. Just like Merkle’s boner in the World Series, it led to a loss in a game they should have won. That is simply not on the manager.
I just think we should take a little time, let the team go through spring training, get some idea of what they have on the field, and then make some judgements. Lasorda used to say, he needed at least one third of the season to evaluate what kind of team he had. I think we should give AF the benefit of the doubt that he knows what he is doing before we implode and say the whole thing is messed up.
Discussion (22)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Have balls Mark Walter.
What about that kid with the Marlins 1B Cooper. They have him at first base and I thought he said he played outfield in the minors. So wouldn’t that be a good young guy. With some pop. That has started a couple of years with the Marlins.
The other first baseman that you could make a LF if you want pop in there bat is at Arizona 1B Christian Walker.
And last I would like to see them either get AJ Pollack McCutchen or Chad Ponder because they all have playoff experiences. And they wouldn’t have to start every game platoon with Taylor, and then Thompson platoons with Outman. And you still have Heyward. What your getting is a decent bench of experienced hitters to pinch hit. Like in a playoff game. Would you rather have McCutchen go up to pinch hit or a Michael Busch. I would go with the vet . Because in playoff time those guys can turn it on like Joc used to do and Kiki.
Look at a veteran leftfielder around the league. Then tell me who would be good. And help Outman as the opening day center fielder. You want Taylor or Thompson who over swing and try to hit it out every time. Or a Yelich Betts teaching him what it takes to be in the majors? Wasn’t Yelich in the running for MYP. Oh yeah he was. Didn’t he win a batting title and isn’t he a hometown boy. The isn’t that kind of like Freeman. That’s who the Dodgers try to bring home to teach the young rookies. Just like. Fred McGriff Eddie Murray Kirk Gibson they always had a veteran to teach the rooks what it takes. And if you look at my lineup there were nine players and a DH. My point was that’s how the Dodgers have some in the past with rookies and you even said they being them in slowly. Or they go get someone to teach the Rookie
Lux 2B
Betts RF
Freeman 1B
Martinez DH
Smith. C
Muncy 3B
Yelich LF
Adamme SS
Outman CF
Now isn’t that a Dodgers lineup that we are used to.
Drugs are bad!
I like Adames, but he is a #7 – #9 Hitter.
Yelich is owed $176 Million until 2029 and has hit 35 Home Runs IN THE PAST 3 YEARS!
They didn’t re-sign Cody Bellinger for just $17 Million, and he hit 41 HR over the past three seasons.
Why acquire a guy who might be worse than that for $176 Million? What are you smoking?
In the past what did the Dodgers do to rebuild a team they usually bring up three rookie stars that play out of this world and become the face of the Dodgers. It all started when Cey Garvey Lopes Russell all came up the same year. Then remember the Guerrero Marshall Brock Hershisser and then it was going to be Mondesi Piazza McGriff now I think there hoping for Lux Vargas Outman Busch. Will it work nobody knows because most teams don’t bring in three rookies an start them all in the same year but the Dodgers seem to have luck in bringing up three stars in one year. And for years we hear it was going to be Bellinger Puig Hernandez Reks the new faces of the Dodgers hmm nope they got that wrong. I still say they need and established leftfielder and center fielder and being in Outman slowly this year. And as I look at teams I still say a deal with the Brewers for Yelich Adames and another player could help both teams get a veteran in Leftfield to help Outman in CF being shadowed by a guy that knows major league hitting and Adames can hit good to and field so you put him a SS and lux at second Muncy and Vargas at third and muncy and lux at second. Now you ask who the dodgers should trade to get that trade to happen trade Thompson Busch and a pitcher and don’t we have a top Catcher or short stop that would play it n the majors rather then be down in triple AAA. So would the lineup of Betts
Adames
Freeman
Martinez
Muncy
Yelich
Smith
Outman
Lux
Sounds better this lineup. Rather then having three rookies in the line up. I think that is a good lineup.
Fangraphs dropped Eric Longenhagen’s report on the Dodgers farm system. Overall, it’s very well done. There are a couple of surprises with Josue De Paula at #7 and River Ryan at #10.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/los-angeles-dodgers-top-51-prospects-2023/#comments
” Tatis had two wrist surgeries and didn’t get his shoulder fixed. ”
Yes he did. Dr. El Attrache did the shoulder surgery on September 6th.
Good article Bear. Yes, we’ve been spoiled. And yes, trust Andrew to put together a successful team until he doesn’t.
The Division as a whole might be better, but that’s hard to tell with the DBacks, Giants and Rockies this year. Did they do anything significant? It really comes down to the Padres. Last year was a weird one. You don’t normally see a team win every single series against the number 2 team in the division. The Padres were a better team after the deadline and still couldn’t beat us until, you know.
So, are the Padres better this year than last year? They don’t have much of a rotation outside of Darvish, Musgrove and Snell and no one ready to come and help from a depleted minor league system. They lost a few bullpen pieces.
The lineup is going to be weird with them, top heavy for sure. Machado, Soto and Boegarts are sure things. Cronenworth is like CT3 with less K’s and he’s playing 1B now. Kim moves from SS to 2B, and hasn’t shown he can hit. Catching tandem doesn’t provide much offense. Matt Carpenter sucked for 3 years, and had a rebound year at age 36. Is he going to be good again, or was it some short-porch Yankees magic propping up his success? Tatis had two wrist surgeries and didn’t get his shoulder fixed. Is he going to be the same? Trent Grisham (Their Bellinger) is still in CF?
Does this look like a lineup that’s going to kill us?
Tatis Jr. LF
Soto RF
Machado 3B
Boegarts SS
Cronenworth 1B
Carpenter DH
Kim 2B
Nola C
Grisham CF
Very legit at the top, then two solid hitters, then three pretty bad ones.
We have two elite hitters in Mookie and Freeman. We have 3 very good hitters after than in Smith, Muncy, JDM. Then we have Lux, who was much better than Cronenworth for much of last season and CT3 who’s bascially the same as Cronenworth. Then we have Outman, Vargas, Heyward and Thompson to choose from to fill out the lineup.
Just because I’m bored, let’s use Lifetime OPS and last year to compare.
Freeman 895/918 vs Tatis 965/DNP – No doubt Tatis is better if healthy, but is he? Look what happened to Muncy and Belli.
Betts 888/873 vs Soto 950/853 – Soto is better in his short career, Last year Betts was better
JDM 872/789 vs Machado 834/897 – JDM is much better in a long career, Machado had a season much better than usual.
Smith 857/808 vs Bogaerts 814/833 – Smith’s wort year is about the same Bogaert’s career average.
Muncy 828/713 vs Carpenter 825/1.139 Carpenter and Muncy had outlier years in opposite directions. Muncy is much better if you throw out the outliers.
CT3 765/677 vs Cronenworth 769/722 Same guy, expect CT3 to get back to normal
Thompson 737/860 vs Nola 731/650 lol – Even with all the injuries throughout his career, he’s still better than Nola and Grisham
Lux 712/745 vs Grisham 711/625 Lux is on the rise.
Vargas SSS vs Kim 678/708 Do you really think Vargas will be worse than Kim?
Offense is about the same, we have a good chance of being better if Outman and Vargas are as good as CT3.
Our Pitching and Bullpen are better overall. At least, that’s how I see it.
Dodgers signed catcher, David Freitas and assigned him to AAA Oklahoma City. It is a minor league deal.
DiGiovanna:
Several rumors floating around today about the #Dodgers being interested in veteran closer Aroldis Chapman, one claiming team has offered him a two-year deal. Neither is true. Two sources familiar with team’s thinking say LA is not involved in the bidding for the embattled LHP.
My prediction this year as far as team stats as of right now:
The team pitching will be in the top 3 in the important team stats in all of baseball. Not just the national league only. To me the most important team pitching stats are runs per game allowed and OPS against. The Dodgers last year were #1 and #2 in those stats. They may be slightly worse or about the same.
The team batting will NOT be #1 in the most important stats in all of baseball. Not just the national league only (probably number 3 but maybe number 4) To me the important stats are the same as pitching, runs scored per game and OPS. The Dodgers last year were #1 and #1 in those stats.
Just my opinion:
With all the bad talking about Justin Turner, I don’t think Vargas is going to match Turner’s stats from last year, at best he will but I don’t think so.
Leftfield is going to be worse than last year. Take a look at Trace Thompson’s OPS as a Dodger last year, second best. I think he’s going to regress A LOT this year and I don’t think Taylor is going to improve enough from last year to make up the difference. If Thompson platoons with Outman in CF and Taylor handles LF, same results either way between the 2 outfield positions.
Martinez will not match Trea Turner’s stats.
Freeman will regress some, but still put up great stats.
Smith will improve some, but get less at bats with Martinez as the DH, and Barnes will be Barnes. So catching production will be worse.
Outman will exceed Belinger’s stats if given the chance but there’s the platoon possibility with Thompson. Doc will probably look at the small sample that Outman had in AAA against LHP but maybe not.
Muncy will improve some.
Betts will be Betts.
Lux will be Lux.
The team will be good enough to make the playoffs, but will be in a fight to win the division and might have to settle for a wild card spot.
My 2 cents AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW.
Well if we call him Jack and switch his number to “24” do you think we can sneak Bauer back into the lineup?
Yes, I think we need to temper expectations. I expect the Padres to win the division, but the Dodgers to make the playoffs. How you finish matters more than how you start–as last season’s collapse illustrated.
So many question marks.
I think the pitching is strong…. if the pitchers stay healthy. (A big if.) Still wish AF had kept Tyler Anderson, though.
On offense, I see three safe bets in Freddie, Mookie and Will, who are also very solid on defense.
So I try to be optimistic about the other six spots in the lineup.
Bounce-back seasons from Max, JD Martinez and Chris Taylor would help a great deal. Let’s also hope that Lux can bounce back to his early 2022 performance.
Fingers crossed that Miguel Vargas and Outman prove they belong. Will we be OK with league-average production? (Maybe so–if Max and JD get back on track.)
As for the defense, I have a lot of confidence in both Outman and Trayce in center or left. Speedy, athletic, and the don’t need any on-the-job training. The OF should be fine, especially if AF is able to add a proven veteran like Reynolds or McCutcheon. (I’ve read that AF would rather add an outfielder by trade. But based on recent stats, a Trayce/McCutcheon platoon could produce .900 OPS from left field. Hey, .800 would be OK.)
In the infield, we’ll learn whether Lux can deliver. If not, it can be fixed in midseason. I am optimistic that Vargas will be OK at third.
There are always injuries, so we may get a good look at Busch and Amaya at some point–and also Stone, Miller, Pepiot, Grove, Jackson….
Dodgers Nation
Dodgers Rumors: LA Reportedly Has 2-Year Offer On Table to Aroldis Chapman
Jeff Snider
Jan 5
Aroldis Chapman was once the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball, with a fastball that routinely hit triple digits and a devastating slider. The Dodgers almost traded for Chapman after the 2015 season, but reports of a domestic violence incident (for which he was later suspended 30 games) caused them to back out of the deal.
According to a report from former big-leaguer Carlos Baerga, though, the Dodgers might be in on Chapman seven years after refusing to trade for him.
View this post on Instagram
A post shared by Carlos Baerga (@carlosbaerga09)
In English, Baerga’s post says: “Aroldis Chapman Rumored To Be Offered A 2-Year Deal By The Los Angeles Dodgers & San Diego Padres.”
If we remove his off-field history, Chapman fits well with what we know about the Dodgers. He used to be great and still has good stuff, so he seems like the kind of guy Los Angeles might take on as a project.
But the ownership group in L.A. is the same group that put the kibosh on the trade seven years ago, and with everything going on regarding the Trevor Bauer situation, it’s hard to see them choosing now to bring in Chapman. I guess they could be planning to keep Bauer and figure, “People are gonna be mad anyway, let’s lump it all together and get it over with. Could we hire the guy who cheated for the Red Sox while we’re at it?”
Baerga’s track record is mixed on breaking news like this. Just yesterday, he was the first to report Boston’s extension with Rafael Devers, but he had Aaron Judge going to the Giants earlier this offseason. And with two teams listed here, even if he’s right it doesn’t mean he’s coming to Los Angeles.
Chapman’s strikeout rate was way down in 2022, and his walk rate has been astronomically high the last two seasons. We’re a few years removed from his major dominance, but it sure would be interesting to see what the Dodgers School of Pitchcraft and Wizardry could do with him.
Great article Bear!
There is still a lot of time before the regular season starts, and the outlook can still change.
The Bauer decision will have a potential positive impact on the pitching depth if they keep him, or on the rest of the roster if they can trade him. The spring training will be very interesting to see how the young players and the new veterans perform. And the competition is still making moves as well.
At this point, the Dodgers look competitive, but not vastly superior to the 5 other top NL teams: Mets, Braves, Padres, Phillies, and Cardinals. In the division, the Padres have added Soto, Hader, Tatis, and Boegaerts in the last 6 months! The Dodgers have lost Trea, JT, Bellinger, Buehler and Anderson, while only adding Thor and JDM. Padres appear to have a more talented roster than the Dodgers right now. I still think Dodgers can win the division, but it will likely be a dogfight.
My current expectations for this season are to test and develop the young players, reset the luxury tax, make necessary moves at the trade deadline, make the playoffs, and make a strong playoff run. Instead of having a 20% chance to win the WS like the past 5 years, the Dodgers probably have about a 12% chance to win it all this year. And it is most important how the team is playing in October, not in March.
Very interesting piece Michael. Well, I’m guilty. I had extremely high expectations when the 2022 regular season ended.
After last season regular season, I expected them to make it to the World Series. I also believed that they had learned from the previous year when they ran out of gas attempting to catch the Giants and then spent all they had to win the WC game and NLDS. It seemed that all the ducks were lined up in 2022. They were well rested, essentially injury free and they faced an opponent that they owned in the NLCS. What I underestimated was the week off.
I read recently on another site that there was speculation that it was Justin Turner that kept the team from mutinying against Roberts because of some of his past tactical decisions made in post season play. I’m not sure if that is true, (actually I doubt it is), but we are about to see how influential JT’s leadership was. This is the first off-season where multiple key components have left. It’ll be a real interesting season to see if they continue to flourish with such major changes.
Honestly, I don’t know what to expect this year, but I do trust this front office. Their track record is unparalleled and to expect a WS title every year with the way the playoff format is set up is unrealistic. They are there each post season, every year. What else can you ask for. Point to me another organization (that doesn’t cheat) that can say the same.
Lasorda and Alston had some down years after successful strings. They survived with their jobs intact. Usually on one-year contract extensions. I don’t see Roberts surviving even one down season in today’s baseball world , even after unprecedented success with multiple 100+ win seasons that neither Alston or Lasorda experienced.
Old Bear, as you have stated in your theme of this writing, we should not EXPECT Trevor Bauer to be on the Dodger 40 man roster as of tomorrow January 6th and will be released to find another team willing to absorb the aggravation and PR distraction he will bring.
From the Wall Street Journal in an article written by a woman (Lindsey Adler):
The Los Angeles Dodgers have until Friday to decide whether or not to add pitcher Trevor Bauer back to their 40-man roster after his MLB-record 194-game suspension under baseball’s policy on domestic violence and sexual assault.
It’s the kind of situation that has often caused sports teams to cut ties with an athlete. And yet the Dodgers have unusual incentives to keep Bauer. Chief among them is the idea that they could be on the hook for paying Bauer to pitch for a competitor willing to take a chance on him.
…what Bauer did or didn’t do to receive the game’s longest suspension to date under the domestic violence policy isn’t the only factor in the Dodgers’ decision.
At the center of their conundrum is a contract that once stood to make Bauer the highest-paid player in his sport. Under that contract, the Dodgers have to pay Bauer $22.5 million this year whether he plays for them, sits on their bench or plays for a rival.
The case throws another harsh spotlight on sports franchises’ response to transgressions by talented players, and what teams are willing to endure in criticism in order to prevail in competition.
Last year the Cleveland Browns’ quarterback Deshaun Watson received a giant contract and was acquired from the Houston Texans after a grand jury in Texas said he wouldn’t be charged criminally over allegations that he had engaged in various forms of sexual misconduct with massage therapists. The National Football League and Watson subsequently reached a settlement that suspended him for 11 games. Now, Watson is back leading the team.
Under a policy agreed to by MLB and the players’ association, and the nature of guaranteed contracts in baseball, a club cannot release a player without pay after he serves a suspension. This would be considered double punishment.
The Dodgers can release Bauer without consequence if they fulfill their contractual obligations to him. Doing so would also mean potentially paying him to pitch against them, if another team wants to take him on their roster.
That is because, if the Dodgers release Bauer with pay, another team would need to pay as little as the $720,000 MLB minimum salary to sign him. Under a “non-duplication” provision in the league and players’ association collective bargaining agreement, Bauer’s additional contract with another major-league team wouldn’t net him additional money; instead—assuming another club signs him for less than the $22.5 million he is owed by the Dodgers—his compensation with a new team would simply offset the amount of money he receives from Los Angeles.
The Dodgers will have to consider the reaction from their clubhouse, business partners, and fans if they choose to carry Bauer on the roster. But they will also be making their decision aware that other teams have signed players facing an off-the-field firestorm, and weathered it for the sake of an on-field advantage.
Indeed, the Dodgers themselves have previously seen their competitors benefit from their decision not to carry a player accused of domestic violence. In late 2015, the Dodgers traded to acquire closer Aroldis Chapman from the Cincinnati Reds but backed out when a reporter obtained a police report detailing a domestic dispute between Chapman and his then-girlfriend that had occurred earlier that year.
Chapman received the first-ever suspension under the domestic violence policy—30 games—and the Yankees signed him at a damaged-goods discount for the 2016 season. The Yankees then flipped Chapman to the Cubs at the trade deadline and received a top prospect in return.
Chapman went on to help win the World Series with the Cubs and then return to New York the next year in free agency. At the end of this chain of events, the Cubs got a ring, the Yankees got a prospect and a closer, and the Dodgers watched from home.
...“If you want to judge me for engaging in rough sex with a woman that I hardly knew, that’s OK,” Bauer said. “In evaluating my life over the recent months, it’s clear that I’ve made some poor choices, particularly in regards to the people I’ve chosen to associate with. But I am not the person that this woman, her lawyers and certain members of the media have painted me to be.”
It’s a very long article and there is lot more to it, but the stage is being set for his return to the Dodgers.
I’ve never seen that blue Santa before. Love it!
Bear: thanks for this great post. You said it very well. As I’ve said in the past, we Dodgers fans need to really be thankful for rooting for an incredible organization which wins on a very consistent basis. It is very easy to think we know better without the skill set the professionals have and certainly without the information they have.
I have had a philosophy in business (which was consistently communicated to my employees). If you don’t have faith in those above you to make good decisions, you should seek employment elsewhere. I kind of feel the same about rooting for a sports team.
The powers to be of the Dodgers have made good decisions most of the time. That really is all one can expect since no one is right all the time (with the possible exception of B&P). I, for one, believe in the powers to be and will continue to be a faithful fan until I leave this earth.
The above photo is an actual photo of Michael! 😉