LAD Prospects Need Fans' Patience

Much has been written about the slow start of Gavin Lux’s MLB career.  Mostly by impatient fans.  Fans get excited about players when they read stat pages, and claim them to be a can’t miss player.  Many are now talking about Andy Pages, Eddys Leonard, Miguel Vargas, Ryan Pepiot, and Bobby Miller in the same context today.  And to a lesser degree, Michael Busch, James Outman, Brandon Lewis, Landon Knack…Many have given up on Kody Hoese and file him in the Jeren Kendall column.  Most of the fans have never seen any of the players play even though MiLB TV is relatively inexpensive, and Rancho Cucamonga is close for many. Some have seen prospects in the back fields at Glendale.  Some can and have make it to Great Lakes.   For the record I have seen every one of the above on multiple occasions, and I believe all will make a ML roster at some point.  How successful remains to be seen.  All have positive skills, and all have holes in their game.  Of those mentioned, only Pepiot has reached AAA, and he was rudely welcomed at that level.  I particularly follow Pepiot quite a bit as he is my favorite LAD MiLB pitcher, and has been since the day he signed.  I cannot answer why anymore than I can say why Junior Gilliam is my all-time favorite LAD.  He just is.  Everybody has the right to root for any player for any reason. 

I used to love DBM’s favorite MiLB players.  She would constantly ask me how they looked.  We had some very good conversations about some relatively unknown MiLB players.  One of her favorites, Ryan Moseley, is still on the OKC roster.  He still has a long way to go from OKC to LA, but he is still in the game.

DC and I have been communicating about MiLB players since 2016 as we both followed the Great Lakes Loons and their championship run.  In particular, we discussed the little known and unheralded LHP, Caleb Ferguson.  I remember writing about Caleb Ferguson on this site from the beginning (2017) and most had absolutely no idea who I was writing about.  DC and I have had multiple email conversations since where we talk about our favorite MiLB players.  While it is very easy to follow the Corey Seager’s in MiLB, we both like to “brag” about the lesser known talents.  DC was writing about Zach McKinstry before most even knew he was a LAD prospect.

Many have given up on Kody Hoese and file him in the Jeren Kendall column.  Admittedly, I seem to fall in that column, as I was never that big on Kody from the draft.  I am by no means a prospect guru.  I watch a lot of videos, but I never film them.  I do not see the players in HS or college or internationally.  I have missed on more than I can count.  I would say by biggest miss was 2015 2^nd round draft choice LHH OF Mitchell Hansen.  Hansen was a 6’4” OF from Plano, Texas.  I have an affinity for Texas kids.  Again, I do not know why, but they rarely disappoint.  Hansen had a scholarship offer to Stanford, and the Dodgers offered enough to buy him out.  I followed him from the beginning, and I was more than disappointed.  Hansen was never promoted above low A.  In 2019, he found himself in Independent Ball, and was out of baseball after the year. 

Another of my favorites was a SS out of Ole Miss, Errol Robinson.  I am one who believes in defense, so I gravitated to Robinson mostly because of his glove.  He was considered a premium defensive SS.  Errol jumped out early on and was pushed up the organizational ladder where he stalled at AAA/AA.  He was waived by LAD and was picked up by Cincinnati.  He was released after the 2021 season.  Admittedly, I hope he gets picked up by someone in 2022.  I no longer have visions of Robinson making ESPN web gems, but he is the type of player whose attitude can be infectious.  I hope he stays in Professional Baseball in some capacity.

So we all know that prospects are just that…prospects.  Some get a little more rope than others.  Obviously the more $$$$ invested, the more the team will try to hold on to them and try for something positive.  Players who hit like Jeren Kendall and are not given any significant bonus $$$$ would probably have been sent packing after a similar 5 years to Jeren’s.  Everything I have heard or read about him says he is a very good person, one worth rooting for.  I still wish him luck, but I do not expect to see him in any LAD lineup.

I follow MiLB religiously.  I watch more MiLB games than the MLB Dodgers.  I have seen LAD prospects in Sacramento (OKC), Modesto and Stockton (Rancho).  And I believe the best way to build an organization is thru the draft and international signings.  There is something about homegrown players that I get excited about.  With that said, some of the expectations some out there have on what the Dodgers prospects  will be doing next year are just not realistic (IMO).  Miguel Vargas and Andy Pages will not be getting called up to LA next year.  Bobby Miller will not make the roster or be called up in September.  I do not believe Ryan Pepiot will get a call as he will need to stay in AAA all year as a starting pitcher.  The Dodgers have enough arms for the bullpen that they are not going to waste bringing up Pepiot early.  I am not 100% convinced that he will be a starting pitcher, but he deserves every opportunity to prove that he will be in the rotation by 2023. He needs confidence in AAA. 

LAD does not push their starting pitching prospects.  Take a look at the OKC rosters that last several years, and look at the number of 30+ has beens or never was pitchers on the roster.  (Last year’s OKC rotation was as follows (by starts):

Aaron Wilkerson (32 years old) – 19 games started

Yefry Ramirez (27 years old) – 22 games started

Austin Bibens-Dirkx (36 years old) – 17 games started

Mick Kickham (32 years old) – 9 games started

Markus Solbach (30 years old) – 9 games started

Mitch White had 7 starts with OKC.  Is he a starter or reliever?  I think he is the new Ross Stripling.  After Mitch White was drafted he garnered a lot of attention.  He made Rancho as a 21 year old and Tulsa as a 22 year old before injuries took over.  After 2019, most fans had written him off.  In 2020 ST he was deemed ready for the rotation after a gem he through against LAA.  Such are the ups and downs of prospects from fans.  Look at the rides MacKenzie Gore (Pads) and Forrest Whitley (Cheaters) have taken from a can’t miss to we are still hopeful.  AAA humbles a LOT of pitchers.

AF was so convinced that Mitch White and Andre Jackson were ready to join a WS caliber rotation that he signed Andrew Heaney for the rotation. Below is a synopsis of how (not) ready the LAD top pitching prospects are.  However you want to phrase it, the LAD pitchers are not pushed.  They have inning and pitch limits.

Ryan Pepiot – 124.2 MiLB IP (#2 prospect)

Bobby Miller – 56.1 MiLB IP (#4 prospect)

Landon Knack – 62.1 MiLB IP (#8 prospect)

Clayton Beeter – 52.1 MiLB IP (#9 prospect)

None of those prospects are ready for the bright lights of LA.  The two pitchers in the organization who will get a chance to join the rotation are the aforementioned Mitch White (338.1 MiLB IP) and Andre Jackson (278 MiLB IP and #7 prospect).

James Outman is not going to be the 4^th or 5^th OF as he will need to play every day at AA/AAA rather than sit on a bench. Michael Busch will be pushed to AAA, but he is going to need to prove that he can stay healthy for a full year, as well as improve his keystone defense.  He is more likely a DH in the future. 

There is not one LAD top prospect who will break camp with the team next year.  There may be relievers who will get pushed and called up during the season, but not starting pitchers or position players.  It is possible that we will see some of Nick Robertson (23), Landon Knack (24), Marshall Kasowski (27), Mark Washington (26), Cameron Gibbons (27), Guillermo Zuniga (23), and Aaron Oschenbein (26) as relievers

Don’t look now, but the defensive whiz SS, Jacob Amaya (another of my favorites), has started to hit at the AFL.  Every MiLB scout who has put forth an opinion has proffered that Amaya has the requisite skill and baseball IQ to stick at SS.  But he needs to hit.  He started to get more comfortable at the plate at the tail end of his AA season, but is now starting to get comfortable at AFL.  With 44 AB, Jacob is now hitting .318/.455/.568/1.023 with 2 doubles, 3 HRs, 6 RBI, walked 11 times and struck out 10.  Yes it is a small sample size, but he is going in the right direction.  I could not be happier.  I tabbed him when he was drafted and wrote about him.  His cousin lives in Reno and is friends with my son, read what I wrote and was excited to see Jacob get some attention.  I will continue to be a cheer leader for Jacob Amaya.

While I am at it, here are the stats for the rest of the Dodger prospects in the AFL.

James Outman – 60 AB, .300/.417/.600/1.017, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HRs, 10 RBI, walked 11 and struck out 19.

Kody Hoese – 48 AB, .222/.283/.375/.658, 1 double, 2 HRs, 5 RBI, 3 walks and 15 strike outs.

Carson Taylor – 28 AB, .357/.379/.571/.941, 2 HRs, 5 RBI, 1 walks and 5 strike outs.

Landon Knack – 5 games, 14.2 IP, 2 HR, 5BB/16K, 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .241 BAA

Kyle Hurt – 8 games, 11.2 IP, 2 HR, 10BB/13K, 4.63 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, .200 BAA, 2 saves in 2 save opportunities.

Bobby Miller – 5 games, 10.0 IP, 3 HR, 7BB/10K, 9.90 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, .263 BAA

Jeff Belge – 8 games, 7.1 IP, 1 HR, 12BB/12K, 18.41 ERA, 2.86 WHIP, .310 BAA

One look at the walks and we can glean what the problem with the pitching is.  GET THE BLOODY BALL OVER THE PLATE!!!

Sunday was tha AFL All Star game, and the Dodgers had three participants, Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, and James Outman. Here is what each of them did.

Bobby Miller tossed a 1-2-3 inning in relief in the third, setting down Top 100 prospects JJ Bleday (No. 71), Gabriel Moreno (No. 32) and Triston Casas (No. 18) in order. The Dodgers’ No. 4 prospect has flashed triple-digit velocity with his fastball in the Fall League. Eighth-ranked prospect Landon Knack relieved Miller in the fourth and allowed one run on a long home run to Hunter Bishop in his inning in relief, striking out one and walking one. James Outman went 0-for-2 with two strikeouts for the West but flashed the leather with a diving catch in center field in the third to rob Moreno of a hit. Los Angeles’ No. 27 prospect has a 1.017 OPS with seven doubles, a triple and three home runs in 18 AFL games.

Vazquez, Pages, Busch, Outman, Amaya, Hoese, Miller, and Knack have reached AA.  Carson Taylor and Jeff Belge have reached A+ at Great Lakes.  Kyle Hurt has reached A level at Rancho.  They have a ways to go.

The Dodger prospects are good (not great or elite).  BE PATIENT with their development.  Do not expect these guys to hit the major league cities and thrive before they prove themselves consistently in MiLB.  In the interim, LAD has a lot of holes to fill.  The Dodgers at AAA last year are not expected to be anything but reserves and AAAA players (Reks, Raley, Neuse).  Nothing wrong with that, but the ML roster is going to need to fill a few holes.  If they cannot expect much help from MiLB IN 2022, and they expect to contend for the WS (they do), AF is going to need to get help from FA, trades, and non-tender waiver wire players.  Some of these prospects could be packaged for help via a trade.

I agree with MT that too many out there look at the back of a player’s baseball card stats and determine that a player cannot pitch or play well enough to be a ML pitcher/player.  I am not about to go on record and say that Andrew Heaney is going to have a 2022 similar to Robbie Ray’s 2021 after multiple poor seasons.  But the guys that get paid to look at a pitcher/player and make some innocuous adjustments they see that might turn the player around, I am not going to pooh-pooh their judgement.  Yes, AF has gone to the “scrap heap” to pick up players.  And yes he has missed on most, but he did not miss on JT, or CT3, or Max Muncy, or Andrew Toles.  So he has more than earned the right to select pitchers/players who fans would pass on.

I like Bums’ trade scenarios.  Always have. I do not find them credulous, but I am no GM so my opinion isn’t any more valid than his.  He does pick his favorites (Mitch Haniger and Gleyber Torres).  And now he seems to be zeroing in on Matt Chapman and Byron Buxton.  I am clear that I have no fascination with Chapman and would avoid him at all costs.  Most on here were complaining about CT3 and his proclivity to striking out, and he did strike out a lot (167 K – 28.7%).  Matt Chapman was much more of a strike out victim (202 K – 32.5%).  He is not a very clutch hitter for a power hitting corner infielder.  For 2021, .228/.329/.341/.370 WRISP and .167/.322/.354/.676 WRISP w/2 outs. Mow if they could get the other Matt (Olson)…

The next season that Buxton has a complete season will be his first.  He has played 7 years with Minnesota and has played more than 92 games just once.  He cannot stay on the field.  The Dodgers had their share of injuries that crippled them in 2021.  You want Chapman and Buxton presumably because of their glove. Why stop there.  Might as well sign Andrelton Simmons to play SS and trade for Kolten Wong to play 2B.  Who cares whether they hit or not, just as long as they play defense (although Torres is nowhere close to being a plus defensive player).

I do not see AF trading for a significant regular position player or signing any high contract FA player other than their own.  I think he will concentrate on starting pitching and bench help.  And I think his pitchers will be more along the lines of Andrew Heaney rather than Max Scherzer.  AF does not need to protect any of his young top prospect pitchers this year (and only Pepiot next year). So I would guess that AF will be looking for short term deals to bridge the gap. That does open the door for Scherzer. There is also reported interest in Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo who would be short term as well. Oakland’s Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas also figure to be available. AF said the following regarding this winter’s goals with respect to starting pitching:

“I think from an ideal standpoint you have a fully mature starting rotation with upper-level depth behind it,” Friedman said this week. “That’s the goal every year, to have that. Some years that’s more realistic than others. We have a really good crop of minor-league pitchers coming. So it’s about how to kind of bridge the short term and not lock up roster spots with the pitching spots looking out and preventing opportunities. It’s how to balance the two that’s the trickiest part of what we’re trying to accomplish this offseason.“

I also would not at all be surprised to read that AF has traded Trevor Bauer for another high salaried player who has fallen on hard times.

While I may speak patience with the LAD prospects, I do not have that patience for hitting coach RVS.  When hired, I said that I will wait to form an opinion even though I had my doubts.  MT likes to point out the number of LAD runs scored and number of HRs to prop him up as a viable ML hitting coach.  I look at the all or nothing approach the team uses.  With the power talent the Dodgers have, they should be at the top of HRs by team and runs scored.  But their apparent lack of ability to manufacture runs, especially late in the games (like the Giants did during the season, and Atlanta did in the NLCS), speaks volumes about RVS’ ability to foster a bat to ball skills approach. I caught a twitter response from former ML 2B, Adam Kennedy to the following Alex Wood tweet:

Alex tweeted:

“Also, just because you played Major League Baseball doesn’t mean you know anything at all so don’t get it twisted. Some of the smartest people I have ever met in baseball never played a single game professionally or in the big leagues.”

Kennedy’s response:  

“Well it means something to actually stand on the mound or in the box and compete. And standing in those two spots feeling confident or struggling are things the smartest guys you know haven’t experienced or account for.” 

You can place me in the Adam Kennedy camp for this one.  I find it hard to believe that MLB players take seriously a player who could not hit HS pitching and went 1-7 with 3 K’s in his one year at Cuesta Junior College. At least Brant Brown had parts of 5 seasons in MLB, and Aaron Bates did make the Show for 12 PA. RVS is a one approach hitting coach, and when that approach falls flat, he does not seem to be able to find a way for his hitters to change it up when the game calls for it. While I have had enough of the experiment, I do not think there will be any change.