That name above is one that few have even discussed, but they should. This pitcher from Japan’s NPB has formally announced he intends to exercise his international signing rights and move to America in the MLB for 2023.
At six foot two, 198 lbs., he is a right-handed starter. He has a five-pitch repertoire made up of a fastball that averages 96 MPH, (topping at 100 MPH), a cutter, slider, sparingly thrown curve and a forkball. Those that have watched him over the years consider his forkball as his best pitch. Fangraphs writes that Senga’s fastball maintains velocity late in games and unlike many other Japanese pitchers, Senga’s stamina may be his strongest asset.
Scouts are mixed in their reviews on Senga’s “out pitch.,” Some say it is the “ghost-like” disappearing forkball, others speak of the heat he brings in late innings. Regardless of the reviews, one thing is certain, he has got NPB hitters out for a decade. An NPB veteran that began his career at age 19 in 2012. In eleven seasons, Senga has pitched 1,089 innings and posted a career 2.59 ERA with 1,252 strikeouts and 414 walks.
This is a guy with successful international experience as well. In the 2017 World Baseball Classic he was named to the All-World Team, and he was an Olympic Champion in the 2021 Tokyo Games where he shut down the USA in the gold medal game.
A three-time NPB champion with the Fukuoka Soft Bank Hawks, Senga has been a starter since 2016, and a winner of three consecutive Japan Series championships from 2017-1019. Over the years Senga was a perenial All-Star, and also a gold glove winner. The Hawks deteriorated as the power-house that they once were in the past few years, but Senga continued to thrive for them, leading Fukuoka to post season play this year in what is considered his best season. 11-6, 1.94 ERA, 156 k’s in 144 IP. His postseason performance included twelve scoreless IP over two starts, and an advancement in the playoffs before his team was eliminated in the second round.
For years Senga had requested that his team post him so he could play in the MLB, but they were under no obligation to do so and refused. This season, at age 29, he is finally free of his contractual obligations to Fukuoka and will be coming to America. Senga signed a 5-year pact with Fukuoka before the 2022 season, but there is an opt out clause and he has already announced that he intends to use it.
Because he is a free agent, Senga will not be subjected to the MLB-NPB agreed upon posting rules. This is great news to those that bid for him as they won’t have to shell out a boat load of money to Fukuoka just for the rights to sign him. Senga earned $5.3 million this past season. He is expected to earn three to four times that with an MLB team that takes a flyer on him. With free agent targets this off-season that include DeGrom, Verlander and Rodon, perhaps a quality arm like Senga is the best hidden secret in free agency. His signing won’t grab a lot of headlines, but certainly he has the potential to thrive in an MLB starting rotation.
As far as teams with interest, it is a bit early in the game, but Cubs blogs are already in on him, reporting that the team is interested and will likely use outfielder Seiya Suzuki as a recruiter.
Discussion (16)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The Adrian Gonzales trade was ill advised.
1). STB, thanks from me as well for that article on fixing Bellinger. I still think we’re deep enough to give him 1 more year to figure things out and perhaps it’ll be worth it
2) I still hope we go out and get a front line starter, like I wanted to do in July, and I still think Pablo Lopez of Miami would be a great get. He’s still young enough to improve and he’s already proven that at worse, he’s a #3. But a young staff with Urias, May, Gonsolin, Pablo Lopez, perhaps Kersh/Anderson, and then Stone/Miller (whichever isn’t sent to Miami for Lopez) is deep and good.
3) Pedro for DeShields was a bad trade in retrospect, but I’m guessing not many people freaked out that we traded a potential top starter for a proven 24 year old All Star 2b. It just didn’t work out.
4) the dumber trade was sending a proven future Hall of Famer, Mike Piazza, to Florida. That was a dumb trade from the beginning, and many people rightfully criticized it, right when it happened.
As it stands right now, today, there is no reason why these guys are not starters next year:
Urias
Gonsolin
May
Stone
But then you have Kershaw and Anderson, free agents. Kershaw is no longer a #1 starter and Anderson never was. It seems to me that the Dodgers could use a #1 starter who’s better than anyone the Dodgers have.
Is there a #1 free agent starter out there? I haven’t looked.
Do you sign either Kershaw or Anderson or both?
Do you move 1 or 2 or 3 of those guys I listed above to the bullpen?
My thoughts are you keep Urias and Gonsolin as starters. To me that’s a no brainer. I would like to see Stone as a starter. I don’t like May as a reliever because I don’t trust him against LHB in the second half of a game because of stats. But if the Dodgers are expected to have another cake walk to a division win then May as a reliever is fine with me and see if he can figure out how to get LHB’s out. But the Padres look like a threat.
There’s a lot of options. Someone could get screwed out of a starting position. Stone could get blocked. I really do think the Dodgers should get a #1 free agent starter if there is one that is not injury prone and that Friedman could get on a reasonable contract. But I also like Anderson and Kershaw.
But to me the offense needs an overhaul. The pitching just needs a little tweak. And the batting coaches or at least someone there needs to be replaced. And I would say Doc needs to be demoted to some sort of position that he can use his strengths, but that’s not going to happen.
Leaving early in the morning for Arizona, then on home to Colorado on Saturday. So won’t be posting much until I am back home. Hope all of you have a great weekend.
I know that many of us lament the Yordan Alvarez trade, but as has been pointed out, we really didn’t know what we had in him because he was traded so quickly, so management usually gets a pass on that one.
What I don’t understand is the vitriol that’s spewed on the Pedro for DeShields trade.
Yes, it turned out absolutely horribly for us, but you have to consider the thought process that went into it.
The season before the trade DeShields hit .295 with a .389 OBP in his age 24 season. That is a very good player.
Pedro had some very nice numbers that season as well but he walked almost 5 batters per 9 innings to go with his 10k’s/9. A 2/1 ratio is not good at all.
So yes, the trade ultimately tanked, but I don’t fault management for making it.
Lasorda is the one credited with making that deal because he felt that Pedro wouldn’t have the stamina to be a long term starter. He just didn’t recognize Pedro’s makeup and toughness, and that’s what ultimately made him a HOF pitcher.
Singing the Blue posted this a couple of days ago, related to Cody Bellinger:
Really interesting article in Prospects Live today about what’s really wrong with Bellinger’s swing. It’s fairly technical but the gist of it is that his problem wasn’t caused by his shoulder injury but rather by his leg injury and how his rehab, which was started too soon, altered his mechanics.
For those of you who are interested in swing mechanics, this is a must read.
https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger
To me, that was the best explanation of what it will take to “fix” Cody. I does give me hope.
Thanks STB!
If he gets the job, we will see some coaching changes for the Dodgers; perhaps he’ll take RVS or Brant Brown with him. Addition by subtraction.
Yasiel Puig seems to have matured some. He is also playing his ass off in the Korean playoffs. He made a great diving catch the other day and has hit 2 huge homers. He hit .277 with 21 long balls, 77 driven in and an OPS over .800 during the regular season. McCullough one of the finalists for the Royals managerial job. Coaching change may come because someone gets hired away.
Evan, nice write up on Senga. He would definitely be a valuable addition to the staff and should come at a relatively reasonable price with him being a free agent. I’ve enjoyed your informative articles.
B&P, I usually read this site in the AM so I didn’t get to your article from yesterday until today. I’m in total agreement with your thoughts on the Dodgers’ playoff debacle and what can possibly be done to turn the tide for the team in the future. Your writing skills have been really shining lately. Most of the time you have ignored those that may not agree with you. Now, your articles and opinions are well thought out and written and are interesting to read. Keep up the good work. And, don’t let it go to your head. Lol.
It is surprising that AF has no desire to make any changes to the coaching staff. Personally, I would have fired the hitting coaches because of their absolute failure to fix Bellinger and other struggling players. How in the world can you not get such a talented player to have productive hitter? One reason may be that getting Cody to concentrate on making contact and hit the ball where it’s pitched isn’t part of their philosophy on hitting. It appears that it is an analytical based belief that the hitter must try to elevate the ball and striking out is acceptable as long as the hitter is accomplishes the former. It’s the same for all hitters. One size fits all. There is no consideration for the individual player. Just like a magic number of 100 pitches is a every pitchers brick wall. Again, one size fits all. This is wrong in my opinion. It doesn’t make sense. Like hitting into a shift every at bat. I’m a common sense guy and using analytics to the degree they are it doesn’t make sense to me.
And. Never. Will.
Carry on
Can anybody think of a worse trade than Yordan Alvarez?
Well, some of the prospects will be traded at some point and some will move up to the Dodgers. I’m sure Kodai Senga is on a list of potential signings for 2023.
Depending on what the Dodgers actually do, the Padres may go into 2023 with a better club.
LA loses a lot of hits and runs if Trea Turner leaves and the big three (Betts, Turner Freeman) are no longer at the top of the line-up.
Lot of balls in the air.
You would think the Yankees will go all in to sign Aaron Judge. The Dodgers had a chance to sign Bryce Harper, but opted to not go all in. Will Judge be any different?
Hopefully, the Dodgers don’t spend too much time trying to figure out what went wrong. Before Freeman got the double to drive in Mookie and Trea, LA was 0 for 20 in the Padres series with runners in scoring position. They simply didn’t hit when they needed to get hits. Mookie hit something like .200.
Maybe there is no real answer to any of it. Pointing fingers, blaming Roberts makes no sense.
Bringing back Anderson and signing Senga to bolster the rotation may indeed make the most sense. Some serious talent in the minors will help the rotation. Yes, Gavin Stone heads up that list.
If they actually could sign Judge and move Mookie to second, play Lux at short, play Vargas in left or at third, bring back Justin Turner for another year, that would create a very good line-up. I don’t think it’s Judge or Senga. The Dodgers can easily do both.
Good column today on Senga, Evan. Definitely a player to keep an eye on this winter.
The Dodgers will be in on Senga. Perhaps he makes more sense than Judge!
It’s also time to allow the farm to produce. Gavin Stone is ready and should be in the rotation in 2023. Pepiot and Miller are still struggling with their control, but Gavin has improved his control immensely. His ceiling is that of a #2, but he should start out as #5!
The Dodgers are either going to have to start trading these guys or promoting them.
What could they get for Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Mike Busch, and Andy Pages? A lot!
The Dodgers need to scout ,sign and develop more International players because of their low draft position in the First Year Player Draft each year. Look at the Houston roster for their quality International signings except for the Alvarez trade that I really have a hard time mentioning.
You ride the hot hand as long as you can. Tommy did with Hershiser in 88 and that was the difference. Who thinks the Dodgers win 88 if Tommy would have taken Orel out after 5-6 innings every time ? Many more examples during other postseasons.
And Roberts and the Dodgers did not learn a thing by the Rich Hill example in 18. Same mistake this time again with Anderson. Both times it exploded right in their faces.
On Kershaw: To be honest I do not want him back. It would be pure sentimental. He is still a very good pitcher but he is not a difference maker in the postseason. In the playoffs he is a JAG. Only exception in all those years was 2020, when he had a really good WS.
From a pure business aspect I would rather see the Dodgers use that money on a guy like Senga or Rodin.
I just saw Diaz of the Mets is a free agent. Only 29 years old , would be the closer we have not had since Jansen in his best days.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Senga would be fun to see. The Dodgers have brought over several quality arms from Japan and South Korea.
Right now, it looks like Urias, Gonsolin, May are the only locks for the 2023 rotation. I expect Kershaw to be back.
I agree that Anderson got the hook too soon. This stuff is maddening in the playoffs. In the postmortem AF was talking about how “the hottest team” has the advantage in the playoffs. Right! So what about when you’ve got a pitcher on a roll? Why take out a hot pitcher when the adrenaline is flowing and the control is locked in?
Some years ago, it was Rich Hill that got pulled against the Red Sox. When Joe Kelly came over to the Dodgers the next season, he said his teammates were just thrilled by that stupid move because Hill had been so dominant.
It’s pretty easy to nitpick pitching, of course. And that really wasn’t the primary problem at the end. ”
It was the bats–and the guys swinging them.
AF could have gotten some better guys.
AJ Preller did. And that’s one of the reasons the Pads beat the Dodgers
Padres trying to sign Soto long term. They will be a tough opponent for the NL West next season .
Their lineup has three top hitters in Machado, Tatis and Soto, 3 very good starters in Snell, Musgrove and Darvis, a top closer and some hard throwing relievers which we just found out. If they are true to their word that was just the beginning they certainly will go after 1-2 more starters like Senga .
Dodgers must be ready for this challenge. Can not sit back and relax. I read in the previous blog that Mookie has offered to play 2b if they sign Judge. That would be great, then you might switch Lux to ss or use him as a trade chip.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Cubs have Suzuki but what concerns me even more is that the Padres have Darvish and they’re definitely going to be looking for some additions to their rotation with Manaea and Clevinger most likely leaving.
I hope we get involved in the bidding and I hope he likes the idea of our long tradition in bringing over successful Japanese arms.
I’ll bet that at least half the MLB teams will bid on him.