Know When To Hold ‘Em and Know When To Deal ‘Em

With apologies to Kenny Rogers for taking lyrical liberties with one of my favorites.  However, we are 10 games into the season, and many are already talking about trades. 

Let me say straight up, I am not a CJ Abrams fan.  Is he a good offensive infielder?  Sure.  But does he have the personality or demeanor that will fit with the current LAD culture?  Could the current LAD clubhouse make the necessary changes for him?  Do they want to?  I have not talked with him, so how can I say that he is a malcontent or can be molded and folded into LAD.  OTOH, I have heard enough about Jazz Chisholm Jr. to know that I do not want him anywhere near the Dodgers.

As long as we are talking about 2B, and Nico Hoerner is now extended with the Cubs through 2032 (age 35), my efforts would be directed towards Brice Turang.  I will say it before anyone else?  Why would Milwaukee trade him?  Quite simply, they wouldn’t, at least not now.  Turang is controlled through 2029, and he is going to command a ransom when he becomes a FA.  He will become available for trade after the 2028 season because Milwaukee will not pay him what he is worth.

AF/BG is not going to make a trade just to make a trade.  Otherwise they might end up with Gorman Thomas.  I am okay with letting Hyeseong Kim and Alex Freeland compete it out for the backup 2B job to Tommy Edman, once he returns.  To be honest I doubt that any of the MLB SS/2B I would be looking at are anywhere close to being available. 

I know most fans would not mind a trade overpay, but AF/BG is not prone to an overpay.  They do the swindling, they are not swindled.  I like it when trades work out for both sides, like Michael Busch to Chicago for Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope.  I do not know if Hope or Jackson will turn into MLB regulars, but we know Busch was never going to get a legit opportunity with LAD.

Zach McKinstry was blocked with LAD, but he was worth a good reliever, Chris Martin, in a trade with the Cubs.  McKinstry would later become an All Star with Detroit.

Ryan Ward?  He was nothing more than a 4^th or 5^th OF, but he certainly deserved a chance with Michael Conforto struggling.  He didn’t, and saw FA ahead until the Dodgers placed him on the 40 man.  I hope his agent is scouring the NPB and KBO wires to learn when a spot for a foreign born player opens up, and he can ask for his release to sign in Japan or Korea.

I cannot imagine Boston ever wanting to trade with AF/BG again.

Busch was traded because he was blocked by Freddie Freeman, and had MLB skills.  OTOH, the player drafted 6 slots before him by LAD, Kody Hoese, was also blocked, but the 28 year old 3B/1B is now looking for a MiLB job.  He is still an unsigned FA.

The Dodgers seemingly prefer the vet over the kid, and that presents them with a dilemma.  They have multiple top prospects that are blocked, and there is no way they can retain all of them.

• Josue De Paula – AA – 2027 ETA
• Zyhir Hope – AA – 2027 ETA
• Mike Sirota – A+ – 2027 ETA
• James Tibbs III – AAA – 2027 ETA
• Kendall George – AA – 2027 ETA
• Zach Ehrhard – AAA – 2027 ETA

• Eduardo Quintero – A+ – 2028 ETA
• Charles Davalan – A+ – 2028 ETA
• Landyn Vidourek – A+ – 2028 ETA
• Ching-Hsien Ko – Development List – 2029 ETA
• Brendan Tunink – A – 2029 ETA

Those are all LAD top 30 prospects, and they are all OF.  Yes, Tibbs III can play 1B, but he has been playing mostly RF with Ryan Ward getting the majority of time at 1B.

It is also possible that Chase Harlan and Kellon Lindsey find their way to the OF.

Andy Pages is controlled through 2030, and is more likely to get that extension than being moved.  Kyle Tucker is not going to opt out of his contract, and no team is going to trade for that contract.  Thus Pages and Tucker will be LAD OF for a while. 

That leaves Teoscar Hernández.  He will be difficult to move with a $16.9MM 2027 contract and a $6.5MM 2028 option buyout guaranteed.  I am not sure what kind of a return the Dodgers would get for a 34 year old LF with a $23.4MM guarantee. Then again, he could be in the MVP talk throughout the year.

While everybody has their favorites, none of us are anywhere close to being qualified to determine which of the above are going to be MLB OF as a regular, much less an All Star. 

That is 6 OF with a 2027 ETA, and logically only one possible spot available.  Two more legit OF prospects with a 2028 ETA right behind them.  You cannot keep them all.  They already have Mike Sirota blocked from AA. Chris Newell and Kole Myers have no real trade value, and neither deserve to just be released.  They can be traded for cash as was Damon Keith, who BTW is doing very well thus far at AA with Milwaukee.  Does anyone truly believe that either Newell or Myers has a future as a LAD OF?

No team ever has enough pitching, so some could be moved for more top pitching at the A or rookie league level.

The closest the Dodgers have to a regular SS at the MLB level might be Kellon Lindsey, and he is on the Development List.  Emil Morales will eventually end up at 3B.  Noah Miller is destined to be a glove first utility player as a potential replacement for Miggy Ro. 

So why not package some of these OF prospects with some pitching to find that elusive SS?  They are not going to get Roch Cholowsky in the draft. I do not believe any prospect on the A’s is untouchable, but if anyone is knocking on that door, it is Leo De Vries.  I do not know how, but if I were AF/BG I would be asking what it would take to get De Vries. 

How long do you hold onto 2 or even 3 of De Paula, Hope, Sirota, and Quintero?  Especially with Tibbs III knocking on the door.  And that is another problem.  Freddie wants to play 2 more years once his LAD contract is up.  It is more likely that he gets extended before that happens.  The Dodgers are going to want Freddie to get that 3,000^th hit as a Dodger.  Do you put Tibbs III on the bench as they did with Rushing?

Do you hold onto them long enough that they become the next Ryan Ward or Kody Hoese?  You cannot hold them so that any trade value dissipates?

I have no idea if Tibbs III is going to continue this hot streak, but he was a top draft pick from a top baseball school (Florida State) in 2024, and is already dominating AAA a year and a half later.  I would certainly consider Tibbs III if there is an injury to Teo or Tucker.  And I would consider him a real option at LF next year.

Alex Call is the ideal 4^th OF.  He is 31 and controlled through 2029.  He will be 35 when he becomes a FA.  Kendall George will then be 25, and would be a logical replacement for Call as the 4^th OF.  George does not need to be protected until after 2027.  I like George in that role.

The Dodgers have decisions as to whether to hold em or deal em.  De Paula is the only OF that needs to be protected this year.  But the Dodgers also have five pitchers at AAA/AA that also merit protection consideration:

• Jackson Ferris (L)
• Adam Serwinowski (L)
• Patrick Copen (R)
• Luke Fox (L)
• Wyatt Crowell (L)

So who are they going to protect?  For those they choose not to protect, is the team better off packaging 2-3 of them for another need, or take their chance at losing them in the Rule 5 draft?  Of course the timing of the next CBA will have an impact on that decision, as the draft cannot happen until the CBA is agreed to.

It will be an interesting trade deadline, and perhaps an even more interesting Winter Hot Stove League, again once the new CBA is signed.