Just Wait Until Next Year…
It’s a day later, and I have moved on. I am resigned to waiting until next year. Many of the fans on LADT are of the “older variety.” They remember when the winner of the National League and the winner of the American League played for the World Series Championship. If you had a…
It’s a day later, and I have moved on. I am resigned to waiting until next year. Many of the fans on LADT are of the “older variety.” They remember when the winner of the National League and the winner of the American League played for the World Series Championship. If you had a good team and got there, you had a decent chance of winning. Today, you have to win a minimum of eight games in your league before you can go to the World Series. That simply means it is a lot harder to do so. You cannot measure success like you used to.
In 2019, the Nationals got hot and won using fewer pitchers and players than I can remember. In 2017, the World Series title was stolen by the Cheating Asstericks. In 2021, the Braves, who won just 88 games, got hot and won the World Series, but this year they were a much better team, won more games, and lost in the first round. In the National League, three teams won over 100 games: Dodgers (111), Mets (101) , and Braves (101). They have all been knocked out! The two teams left, the Padres and the Phillies, won 89 games and 87 games, respectively. This is the new brand of playoff baseball… like it or not. The teams with the best records in the regular season no longer waltz to the World Series.
The Dodgers were clearly the better team all season. They won 111 games and were 14-5 against the Padres. They actually dominated the Friars. Did they just think they had to show up to beat them? Did the Padres have an increased impetus to beat the Dodgers due to how heavily favored they were? Did the Dodgers not take them seriously? Were the Dodgers not prepared? All of that comes into play. While I believe Andrew Friedman does need to make a few changes (evolution, if you will), he has built a juggernaut of a team. Someone was trying t make the point that the Dodgers have not had that many new major-league stars under Friedman, but Keith Law called their minor-league system “sick” with so many prospects.
The Dodgers have not had that many players promoted because they have so many good-to-great players at the MLB level. Miguel Vargas, Mike Busch, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, James Outman, and some others would be on major league rosters, playing if not for the Dodger’s depth. I think Andrew Friedman could pick any team in MLB and be their President of Baseball Operations. They all would have him. Theo Epstein was once regarded that highly, but no one else is close. To call Friedman a loser is to be ignorant of the facts, simply put.
Baseball has changed. To say that Andrew does not know how to build a team for the playoffs may satisfy your small-minded view of baseball but ignores how baseball has changed. Inferior teams can get hot and win it all. The Braves won 88 in 2021 and then got hot and won it all. They improved the team over the winter and won 101 games, only to get knocked out in the first round. How do you build a team for the playoffs? You build it the same way you build a team for the regular season. Maybe you get hot and win it all, or maybe someone else does. It truly is a crapshoot. Maybe AF should build a team to win 88 games and then get hot… yeah right!
Many moves you blame Doc for are actually S.O.P. Some of these things need to be re-evaluated. I think the Dodgers need to get rid of so many “swing-and-miss” players. I also think you grow your starting pitching – you don’t buy it. Remember this column because it is going to be a while until baseball teams win back-to-back titles. It has become too damn hard. As I write this, Cleaveland is tied with the Yankees 2-2. This has been the year of “the best teams do not usually win.”
I have a few parting shots, and then I am going to take some time off. I have a lot of irons in the fire and need to focus on some other things… but I will be back. Maybe not until 2023, but I will be back. Hopefully, the rest of the group will entertain you. They won’t post every day, but we will be open for business. Before I go, I have a few things to discuss. I would like to do that, position-by-position.
Catcher
The Dodgers are in great shape here, with Will Smith and Austin Barnes for 2023 and Diego Cartaya and Dalton Rushing on the horizon. Will Smith gets a free pass for the Padre Series because of the birth of his first child. I can see why his head might have been elsewhere. Will and Barnsie are one of the best duos in baseball.
First Base
The Dodgers should be set with Freddie Freeman for the next three or four years (yes, I know he has five more years, but the last year or so, maybe as a DH). Freddie held up his end of the deal in the postseason. Maybe next year, he will be more comfortable as a vocal leader.
Second Base
I would leave Gavin Lux here to play every day. I would trade Chris Taylor and second base belongs to Gavin. With another year under his belt, Gavin could have a “breakout” season. Jorbit Vivas is a player to watch, also. – he could be the super utility guy.
Shortstop
I think it is very likely that Trea Turner will go back East. Of the free agents out there, only Dansby Swanson has much appeal, and he is a downgrade over Trea Turner. Some think Gavin Lux can play SS, and maybe he can, but I see him as a Gold Glove Second Baseman. He has the range to play SS, but the “yips” are a worry there (you can’t wish them away). If Jacob Amaya could hit just a little, I would not be afraid of his defense. He is a baseball “gym rat” and knows the game, Bat him 9th and upgrade other places. This is not the team with Griffin and Izturis in the past.
Third Base
The Dodgers can make it known through “back channels” that they would pay Nolan Arenado more than his current contract, and it is no secret he’d like to play in LA. Buy out Justin Turner’s contract for $2 Million and sign Nolan. I have to admit that I was wrong about his hitting outside of Coors – he has been very good. Add another year to his deal, and he can play to age 37, which is how old Justin Turner is right now.
Left Field
Miguel Vargas is a good athlete with above-average speed, a good arm, and a great baseball pedigree. If he starts this winter, he can learn to become a solid left fielder by the end of Spring Training. This guy is a .300 hitter. His glove has gotten a bad rap.
Center Field
As much as I have rooted for Cody Bellinger, it is time for a change, and I am dead serious about trading for Bryan Reynolds. He is 27 years old and a switch-hitter with identical career batting averages of .281 from both sides of the plate. He is not the equal of Cody defensively, but few are. He is solid, if not spectacular. He is not on the market, and there is no reason he should be, so it will take an overpay to pry him loose. Pepiot, Busch, and Pages are a lot to pay but should get the deal done for the rebuilding Pirates.
Right Field
The Dodgers are “stuck” with Mookie Betts. I think he should spend some time with Michael Jordon and Tom Brady in the offseason. He needs to be more of a vocal leader.
Designated Hitter
Who else, Max Muncy! He is signed for 2023, and he was not the problem in the playoffs. He will hit 35 HR in 2023 and OPS .950. Write it down.
Lineup
- Betts RF (R)
- Reynolds CF (B)
- Freeman 1B (L)
- Arenado 3B (R)
- Muncy DH (L)
- Smith C (R)
- Lux 2B (L)
- Vargas (LF) R
- Amaya (SS (R)
That is a balanced, solid, good defensive lineup. I could live with that!
Pitching
As I mentioned before, I want Anderson back. I’d also like Heaney back – as a reliever. Whether he will do that remains to be seen. I think he could be an outstanding reliever. Gavin Stone should be in the rotation next year. Dustin May should be back. What’s up with Clayton? He might be back… or not. Bobby Miller, Mike Grove, and Emmet Sheehan are all possibilities in 2023.
Rotation:
- Urias
- May
- Gonsolin
- Anderson
- Stone
- Kershaw?
There are a plethora of relievers – enough for two teams. The starting pitching and the bullpen are not the issues.
See you next year!
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Discussion (75)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Does anyone really want to see Amaya at shortstop in 2023 instead of Trea Turner?
Maybe some are concerned with the Dodgers payroll? Quick question. Why? It’s unsustainable, right? But the Dodgers didn’t seem too concerned when they signed Freeman this past spring. Or when they signed the crazy deal with Bauer. I get that some teams can’t hang with the Dodgers when it comes to high finances and all. But that is not LA’s problem.
The Dodgers should re-sign Turner. Oh yah, it will cost a whole lot of money, ridiculous amounts. But such is baseball. He actually produced with the bat. In fact, look at all the games he impacted during the season. The big hits.
But the Dodgers have the money. They are approaching $600 million in revenue. They are, again, raising ticket prices. They’ll raise them again in 2024. It’s probably already plugged into budget. Good glove or not, people want excitement. They want hits. Turner was second in hits. They want to see the slides.
Sorry, but this isn’t the game of yesteryear.
It’s high priced entertainment.
Took my daughter and two of the grandkids to a game last year and it cost a grand. That didn’t include food.
I’m paying for excitement in a game that struggles to deliver it. Ending the shift and speeding up the game will certainly help.
I always enjoy reading Mark’s thoughts, but what if the Pirates aren’t inclined to trade Reynolds? Then there is Nolan. Thought that might happen years ago, then it didn’t. Don’t expect it to happen now.
Hey, all the speculation is fun.
Keep it coming.
There are holes to fill this offseason, but the core is pretty damn good. I keep going back and forth about Belli. Other options aren’t that appealing. Sure Bryan Reynolds was solid last year, but he’s got three years of team control and the Pirates will probably want to compete for that Wild Card at some point. Are you gonna trade the farm for a 3 WAR player?
What we have.
Smith C (R)
Freeman 1B (L)
Lux 2B (L)
A big fat hole 3B
A big fat hole SS
Belli CF (L)
Betts RF (R)
A big fat hole LF
Muncy DH (R)
We have some options.
Amaya SS – Great glove, but can he hit?
Vargas 3B, 2B, LF – He didn’t hit, but probably can.
Outman, LF, CF – He hits, but K’s a lot
Busch 2B, LF – Progresses well at every level so far, but seems a little further behind than others.
Martin OF – Older version of Outman, not quite as good defensively
Left field was a black hole the entire season. JT ran out of gas at 3B in the postseason two years in a row. It’s time to move on. Trea’s a free agent. I don’t think his defense justifies the kind of contract he’ll most likely seek. If you’re gonna spend 30M+, I would rather give that money to Nolan. He’s a better fit than Trea.
Lux’s OBP of 346 is fine for the top of the order and he has the speed to go with it. With Mookie taking one of the spots up top, we’re in need for RH power to balance the lineup. Nolan’s D at 3B makes Machado look like just another dude. Nolan is that good.
Nolan is coming off a 7.9 WAR season and this is his last opt out. The Angels have Rendon and the Padres have Machado. This is his only shot at coming home. Get it done!
If we get Nolan, I really don’t care what else we do. I would be more than happy with this lineup…
Mookie RF R
Lux SS or 2B L
Freeman 1B L
Nolan 3B R
Muncy DH L
Smith C R
Belli CF L
Vargas LF R
Busch or Amaya 2B or SS L or R
We still have CT3 for Insurance and Trayce and Outman as 4th outfielders.
Get Belli a hitting coach for the offseason. Get Vargas a guy with a fungo bat for the offseason.
Any way you look at it, the offense improves over last season. Nolan is a better hitter than Trea and a better fit in the lineup. Vargas takes over one of those black hole spots in the lineup.
Thank you Mark
I approve your plan
Have a wonderful winter.
Mark –
I really enjoy LADT and genuinely appreciate your commitment to it! I join KP in wishing you continued success in all your endeavors.
As a veteran human being I have come to realize that “moving on” is one of the most important qualities to have in this crazy life! Your example is good for all of us to heed.
I agree with your moves for next year too. One is particularly difficult for me – the departure of Cody Bellinger. Since he came on the scene, I followed him as my favorite Dodger even checking the box score every day like I did as a 10 year old baseball fan! He was so talented and successful and the ceiling was so high! But, baseball is an extremely difficult sport to be successful long-term. While my heart tells me – give him one more year; my head tells me it is probably best for Cody and the Dodgers to “move on.” I wish him future success!
Playoffs are a crapshoot, it is indeed who gets hot at the right time….and we picked the worst time to play our worst 3 games of the season.
I enjoyed the season, 111 wins is unreal.
Yeah it didn’t end the way we wanted it, but you know what, we will be right back there next season….
Thanks Mark.
I hopefully people here are done losing their minds. At least Mark isn’t advocating dropping a nuke on the entire organization. I couldn’t even read the comments yesterday. They just made my head hurt. “AF is terrible! The Dodgers farm system is terrible!” Just stop, please!
Before everyone advocates burning everything down, do remember that the Dodgers were clearly the best team in baseball all year. They did win 111 games. We went over this before the playoffs even started, and I got thoroughly flamed. Winning the WS is very hard. The Dodgers were 60%/40% favorites over the Padres. That means there was a 40% chance according to the prognosticators that the Dodgers would lose. If you think about it, that’s actually quite a lot. Not quite a 50/50 coin flip, but definitely too close for the hubris that was on display here. It sucks. It’s bitterly disappointing. Shit happens. The Dodgers are still good.
“AF didn’t construct a team for the playoffs!” I don’t know what that even means. I don’t know if the pundits and commenters that write this stuff know what it means (and if the genesis of this nonsense are the likes of Plaschke and Hernandez, I’m POSITIVE they don’t know what it means). Ok, maybe the emphasis on a lot of “depth” …. “depth, depth, depth!” is more beneficial in a long marathon of a season, where injuries and slumps take their toll on any team. In the playoffs the guys you got just have to perform. We had guys (maybe a little less emphasis on the bowling, Mookie) who didn’t perform. That’s it. Sometimes it’s just that simple. There are no big answers to existential questions; no divining meaning in the chaos of short sample size playoff series.
Most of what I’ve glossed over is criticisms like this – just stuff people say. It’s reactive … and it’s not thought through. The entire Dodgers’ brain trust’s job is to think things through. That’s what they do … and they’re good at it. Putting in Heaney after Gonzo gave you just one inning was absolutely the right move, and criticisms of moves like this drive me nuts.
I mentioned yesterday Arenado would be a great fit. I think the Dodgers would pay. I think St Louis would pay, too, and Nolan may have discovered that St Louis is a pretty good organization with great fans. As much as I’d like to see it, it will be hard to pry him loose. It would also be tough to just unceremoniously dump JT like that, but no sentimentality in baseball, I guess. It would solve the defensive hole at 3rd. Muncy just needs to be the DH.
I think everyone’s sick of watching Bellinger flail away at the plate, but dumping him means you have an outfielder shortage.
And thank you, Mark, for your commitment to this site and the time and effort you’ve put into it over the years.
I really enjoy your commitment to this site and hope everything goes well for you, your family and the business. I normally agree with most of what you say but line-up with just about everything you said in this column. We are blessed to have AF and no one should forget the position we are in moving forward with a 111-win team and a productive minor league system. You are right, every other team in baseball would gladly trade places with us.
My reaction to your position analysis: Catching- right on, First- Right on, Second- Go into Spring Training with Busch knowing he has a shot, Short- Move Lux over and tell him now he is the shortstop (Go into the season with Busch/Lux and see what Amaya does and what other options open up), Third- You have Max so put him there (Turner is gone), Outfield- Belli is gone, so is Gallo/Thompson (Taylor is on the bubble-I don’t care either way)- add an impact outfielder as we don’t have one coming up- this is where we should spend money/prospects, Pitching- Sign CK and hope for health from Tony and Dustin- Add Stone- Also hope Trienan is back and healthy.
It will be a long winter, but it is always fun to get online each day and hope something exciting happens. Thanks Mark.
Another sad ending to a great regular season. I believe there’s enough blame to go around for everyone. Obviously the gallo move was just that, a move. He really didn’t improve the team at all, nor did the Alberto signing. I agree with you mark, go get Reynolds’s, and if. At all possible Arenado! I love belli but it’s time to move on. Taylor I keep at least one more year, trace Thompson I let walk and give outman the 4th outfield spot. No need. To fire doc, they will just bring in more of the same, hope Clayton comes back for 1 more! Dodger fan for 60 years, no need to change now! Go Cleveland!
Yep, a solid assessment.
I love the idea of Arenado coming home to SoCal, especially if Trea leaves and Jacob Amaya lives up to his defensive billing. Could Lux be a great 2nd baseman? I doubt it. At any rate, it would be great to have superb fielding at SS and 3B to complement Freddie’s fine glove at 1B.
Might as well cut Belli loose. Maybe Dodgers brass has given up on him too, given his diminished role against SD. I wonder who besides Reynolds might be available. Outman may strike out too much, but if he’s like Joc Pedersen with a glove, that would be fine. Trayce should still be in the mix too.
Thanks Mark, appreciate you, hope the next few months go great for you, your family and business.
It’s been another fun and interesting LADT season.
Solid assessment. Players gotta play!!