Just the facts, Ma am

Jack Webb (1920-82) will live on forever in the hearts of TV fans as the no-nonsense cop with Badge 714. His creation and portrayal of Sgt. Joe Friday on Dragnet – and memorable lines such as “Just the facts, ma’am” – made him and the series a cult following.

Well, that is a doggish thing to say… but seriously folks, if we were to just stick to the facts on this blog, it would be crickets! We could say very little.

• “I think the Dodgers bullpen is better than last year.”
• “The bullpen is where he needs to improve.”
• “The Dodgers have essentially done nothing.”
• “I’m really excited about David Price.”
• “David Price has not pitched well in three years.”
• “San Diego is much better than last year and has caught the Dodgers.”
• “The Dodgers are still better than San Diego.”

None of that is currently a fact! They are all opinions. Facts will come, but right about now, all we are talking about are opinions. I see the glass half full – you see it half empty. Who’s right? Only time will tell. That’s why they play the game.

Here’s a fact: Bullpen pitchers are very fickle and highly unpredictable. Maybe I could exchange the word “highly” with “wildly.” Yeah, that is probably a better description of most bullpen pitchers. The fact that many bullpen pitchers are “wildly unpredictable” is very predictable. Many fans make a point of saying that the Dodgers bullpen is not very good and that Andrew Friedman either isn’t done or that he doesn’t know how to build a bullpen.

It’s fact that building a bullpen is difficult and unpredictable. It’s an opinion that the Dodgers bullpen is not very good. It’s an opinion that Andrew Friedman isn’t done. It’s an opinion that he doesn’t know how to build a bullpen.

Before the 2020 season, we had this exact same conversation with some of the same exact people about the state of the Dodgers’ bullpen. MLB, Fangraphs, and Bleacher report had ranked the Dodgers bullpen at the bottom of the Top 10 before the season started. We know how that turned out. The opinions of many about the Dodger bullpen before the season started did not materialize as facts.

Bullpens are not predictable – the best bullpen pitcher (Devin Williams) came out of nowhere and made a little over $200,000 in 2020 and he was unhittable. When I say unpredictable, I mean “wildly unpredictable!”

This is a discussion that comes up every offseason. It came up again the last offseason and when the dust had settled, here were the results:

• Dodgers bullpen was second in WAR to the Rays bullpen (3.6 to 3.7).
• The Dodgers bullpen was #2 to the A’s bullpen in ERA (2,74 to 2.72).
• The Dodgers bullpen was 2nd to the Cardinals bullpen in BABIP (.254 to .251).
• The Dodgers bullpen was 5th in IP.
• The Dodgers bullpen was #1 in WHIP, by a long shot (1.044 to 1.13 for the A’s)
• The Dodgers bullpen surrendered the lowest number of home runs. They were #1 with a 0.82 HR/9.

Opinions aside… those are all facts, yet many of you persist in saying that the Dodgers have done nothing and Andrew Friedman cannot build a bullpen. I will submit that you are assuming “facts not in evidence”. By just about EVERY metric, Andrew Friedman built a fine bullpen last year (even with Jansen and Kelly on the team – he’s learned from that!). You can berate the bullpen all you want. You can also join The Flat Earth Society, but it doesn’t make it true.

Andrew Friedman is ever evolving. After screwing up big time with International Free Agents, he now has a better plan. Instead of signing a relief pitcher to a long-term deal ending with $20 million in the final year, he is following the statistical probability that relievers are wildly unpredictable and applying the the “strength in number” factor to that reality.

Probability deals with predicting the likelihood of future events, while statistics involves the analysis of the frequency of past events. Probability is primarily a theoretical branch of mathematics, which studies the consequences of mathematical definitions.

Just like talent evaluators are not always right, statistics and probability are not always right. If you were a Life Insurance Company and you insured three people for a million dollars each, the odds are you would have to pay out more than you took in, but if you spread out that liability to a million people, the picture looks entirely different.

That is exactly what Andrew Friedman is doing with the Dodger bullpen. I won’t rehash all the prospects, suspects, re-treads, has-beens, never-weres, blind, crippled, or crazy ones. Andrew Friedman has assembled about 25 pitchers to audition for 8 spots and if you consider that at least 6 or 7 of those spots (barring injury) are locks, that means he only has to find one or two pitchers in that scrap heap.

Statistically, those odds are pretty good. He doesn’t need 25, he needs to find one or two. I don’t know what the plan is with Jimmy Nelson. Will he stay a starter or go to the bullpen? What is the statistical probability that Jimmy comes back and pitches successfully? The same with Brandon Morrow. We don’t know, but it’s likely that AF has an idea.

Joe Kelly’s ERA looked good last year, but we know he wasn’t. Can he have one good year in LA? At this point, I really have no opinion, but it is possible. What can we expect of Kenley? We all have opinions, but not facts. Past performance (good or bad) is not proof of future prospects. I cannot say with any degree of certainty that Victor Gonzalez, Scott Alexander, Gerardo Carrillo, Garrett Cleavinger, Dylan Floro, Brusdar Graterol, Tony Gonsolin, Corey Knebel, Adam Kolarek, Blake Treinen, or Mitch White will have a great season. I do not know if Ryan Pepiot or Edwin Uceta will be ready.

What I do know is that while I cannot individually predict what each pitcher will do, I feel very confident that “collectively” this bullpen can be great. There is a lot here to like, but that’s my opinion. Let’s see if I can rub your noses in the Facts come October! Let me conclude with this: I do not worry about the Padres. I have no control over them or the Dodgers, I just know that what you fear in the day, comes in the night!

Dodger News

• Kody Hoese is ranked the #8 third base prospect by MLB.
• MIke Busch is ranked the #5 second base prospect. They say this: “Busch could provide 25 or more homers on an annual basis thanks to his knack for barreling balls, his combination of bat speed and strength, and his polished approach. Primarily a first baseman and left fielder in college at North Carolina, he has improved his quickness and arm strength since signing, enhancing his chances of staying at second base.”
• JT allegedly has four offers. I have no clue where he will go.

For the Savage Beast