Julio Urias Wunderkind

If Ryu, Kasmir, and McCarthy are healthy and pitching well in Spring Training the Dodgers will try their best to trade one, two, or all three. If a trade can’t be made, I think the rotation will be Kershaw, Maeda, Kasmir, McCarthy, Ryu and Urias will be in OK where he can conserve his pitch count. He will be brought up when a trade thins out the rotation.

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I have been down on De Leon since he was rested coming out of Spring Training last year. That was a good trade.

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San Diego probably like to have a veteran team leader to help all their young players progress. Agon could be traded with SVS playing first until Bellinger is ready. Maybe Ethier could be traded to the Angels. They always seem to need a lefty hitter and did I hear Pujols might be injured?

I think Pederson and Puig will be Dodgers.

“they have bad luck when it comes to thinking”…….classic M.T. Welcome back you were sorely missed

Driman

Welcome to Melton. Since he and Mark brought up the “other board”, I posted the following on the other board concerning that dreaded topic “The Trade”. I thought it blew out any argument that DeLeon would have got us Hamels (without Seager/Urias). I got no reply’s there. Any thoughts here.

Maybe, just maybe, the Phillies knew better than you guys!!! Maybe, just maybe, the Phillies don’t get their scouting reports the same place you guys do. Maybe just maybe, the Phillies are a lot better off having traded with Texas.

ESPN’s Keith Law: Cole Hamels trade was ‘Phillies’ Herschel Walker moment’

For the first time in years, Phillies spring training is the root of optimism in Philadelphia. While 2016 results likely won’t be pretty (USA Today and Baseball Prospectus peg them for worst record in baseball), the future is looking bright.

Much of that is thanks due to a farm system that has been overhauled over the last 18 months–stemming in large part from the July 2015 trade of Cole Hamels to the Texas Rangers. In return, the Phillies landed five prospects: Catcher Jorge Alfaro, outfielder Nick Williams and three right-handed pitchers, Jake Thompson, Jared Eickhoff and Alec Asher.

The quantity, along with quality, of that deal spurred ESPN prospect expert Keith Law to rank the Phillies among the better farm systems in baseball heading into 2016 and put the deal in historical terms.

“It’s the Phillies’ Herschel Walker moment,” Law told NJ Advance Media during a conference call on Tuesday. “Yes, I’m showing my age, but I believe that. When the Dallas Cowboys dealt Walker to the Minnesota Vikings, it set up their next winning team with an amazing array of assets. This deal did that for the Phillies.”

“Alfaro is hitter, regardless of if he plays catcher or the outfield,” Law said. “Williams has a chance to be very dynamic. I’m convinced that Jake Thompson is a major-league starter, likely a very solid No. 3. Those players all could be part of the next winning Phillies team or shipped off in trades to acquire players that will get the Phillies there by the end of this decade.”

While Law’s comparison is historical and paints the trade in a very positive light for the Phillies, it’s viewed through a cross-sports lenses. When asked if it compares to any recent baseball haul, Law pointed out one of the most lopsided-trades in recent history: The 2003 trade that sent Bartolo Colon from the Cleveland Indians to the Montreal Expos for prospects Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips.

TEXAS PLAYERS

Jorge Alfaro, catcher, Now 23 yrs old, 16 MLB at bats

Nick Williams, outfielder, Now 23 yrs old, hasn’t made it to MLB

Jake Thompson, pitcher, Now 22 yrs old, 2016: 53IP, 5.70ERA, 1.51WHIP

Jared Eickhoff, pitcher, Now 26 yrs old, 2016: 197IP, 3.65ERA, 1.16WHIP

Alec Asher, pitcher, Now 25 yrs old, 28IP, 2.28ERA, .94WHIP

DODGER PLAYERS

Jose DeLeon, Now 24 yrs old, 17IP, 6.35ERA, 1.53WHIP

Jose Peraza, Wasn’t even a Dodger until a day before the Hamels trade

PHILLIES TO DODGERS (Just like Twins to Dodgers) We want more than DeLeon for Hamels. Urias and Seager you got a deal!!!!!!! Otherwise he goes to Texas.

I am working on getting paragraph spacing back. Hopefully we will figure it out soon.

Update above.

Nothing to get overly excited about… unless you are excitable about AAAA players.

Keith Law has Yadier Alvarez ranked #46 on his TOP MLB Prospects:

or raw stuff, Alvarez might be the best pitching prospect in the minors. He’ll work in the upper 90s and can show you a plus slider now and again, but the lack of consistency and command hold him out of the upper tier of this list. Alvarez signed as an amateur free agent out of Cuba for $16 million in 2016, which meant the Dodgers paid double that including the penalty for exceeding their bonus cap, so he’d better have a good arm … and he does. But he showed up last summer struggling to find the plate, so he didn’t debut in pro ball until this year’s Arizona League.

The Dodgers slowed his tempo, so Alvarez’s delivery is more deliberate now, to the point that it’s surprising how hard he’s throwing, and he’s staying on top of the ball and getting more online to the plate. The slider is good, but the big power curveball might end up better if he focuses on that pitch. He might pitch with four distinct offerings, two or even three grading plus, but it’s thrown with grade 40 command, which would make him a big league starter but maybe just an average one. If the command improves — and there’s no delivery-related reason it can’t — then he has a chance to profile anywhere up to the top of a rotation.

I will be interested to see if Urias comes to Glendale in shape and ready to go. I don’t remember what it takes to get into shape as a 20 year old, but probably not as much as now. Still, if the arm is to be golden, I hope he as been doing something in the off season to keep it in shape. How about weight issues? Has that ever projected to be a problem with him. I would still like to see him lighten up on his delivery. He throws each pitch like it is his last. I don’t know how long he can keep that up. Also, am I remembering correctly that he ran a lot of long counts last year? I think he needs to focus on Strike 1. In spite of the strikeouts, I seem to recall a lot of 3-1,3-2,2-0 counts. I like Mark’s analysis, and there is no reason to think it is not accurate, but spring training will determine where he fits into this team because of the other dead wood on the staff. I can see him in the bullpen at least for a while. No on AAA again for him. On AGon: it would be a big mistake to get rid of him. Bellinger still has a lot of learning to do as a hitter, and the holes in his swing will be apparent against major league pitching. AGon is a sure thing on a team without many of them. I may change my mind if Bellinger is given a lot of AB’s in spring, and the hits .400. I can’t see that happening. But with AGon in the WBC, he will get a chance early in spring training.

Just read we traded for another outfielder. This one from the A’s, but was in the Royals system. Frias DFA’d. What’s going on? As far as I know, there are only 3 outfielders allowed on the field at one time. Unless the rules have changed, there is no buck short. Another move in the works?

1 – I doubt that Urias will be throwing 200 innings. He averaged a little more than 5 IP/start last year. He threw 126 IP last year at all levels combined. If they increase that by 25% that would be 160 IP and I doubt he will throw more than that as a 20 year old. He is probably #4 starter at this point. Will he pitch like an ace? I have no idea but hope he will.

2 – The Dodgers have to do something with all of the pitchers on the 40 man roster. If they carry a 12 man pitching staff, that will mean one of Kazmir, McCarthy or Ryu will be in the rotation if all are healthy (not likely, I know). Of the 7 in the ‘pen right now, we have Jansen, Baez, Dayton as locks. They have to decide about Wood, Libertore, Hatcher, Avilan, the other 2 injury-prone starters, Nuno and Stripling for the other 4 bullpen slots. If Wood and Libertore are probably going to make it, does that mean that the other 2 former starters will start the season in the ‘pen? I think that if they can find any takers it makes more sense to trade at least 1 of them.

3 – It makes sense to trade Ethier if they can find a taker and he waives his no-trade clause. They have other OF options. I’m not too sure about Gonzalez though. I would like to see Bellinger try his hand at AAA first.

Article by Phil Rogers on MLB.com:

In part it says:

Forget that Logan Forsythe hasn’t hit 70 home runs over the last two seasons. He’s not quite as dangerous of a hitter as Brian Dozier.

Luckily for the Dodgers, he doesn’t have to be to count as a tipping point in the National League’s analytic balance of power.

According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers moved past the Cubs when they imported Forsythe to fill their second-base void. Forsythe is projected to be a two-win player, and with him in the mix, FanGraphs has the Dodgers down for 95 wins next season, one more than the Cubs.

Don’t shoot the messenger – I didn’t make it up – I just reported it!

The acquisition of Brett Eibner is a reminder that the two righty hitters SVS and Thompson had severe enough injuries to miss most of last year and that Kike’ was a bust. The crowded outfield isn’t crowded if SVS, Ethier, and Thompson aren’t healthy enough to play again.

Hard to think Agon will be traded before July when it will take that long to evaluate the health of SVS and Bellinger’s readiness.

I honestly don’t think A-Gon or Ethier CAN be traded, but I am sure someone will try. I know I would. It seems most likely that you allow Andre to start and hopefully he returns to form and then if injuries strike, you could possibly trade them… or not… and if they are producing at a high level, why would you?

Andre is playing for another contract, so maybe he will play out of his mind.

A-Gon is regressing and had his worst year last year, so maybe he works harder and gets better for one year? One can only hope.

Great look a the rotation:

The Dodgers Rotation Is Risky, Expensive, and Fantastic

Urias isn’t pitching 200 innings this year. Here is from Dodgers.com:

“Roberts said that even though Julio Urias is “one of the five best starters in the organization,” the 20-year-old’s innings will still be limited. One option is for Urias to open the season at extended spring training; another is for him to skip multiple starts during the year.”

The Dodgers overpaid for WAR so they wouldn’t have to keep doing it.

Sure, they traded Montas, Holmes, Cotton and De Leon, but they kept Urias, Buehler, Alvarez, Stewart, White and a bunch of others. They traded from a surplus and did not sign long-term free agents, so that they could reap benefits in the end. Soon, the Giants will have $70 million a year tied up in 3 starters. How is that going to look for them?

Some fans just cannot grasp the concept that you can overpay on a risky short term deal, but not on a long-term deal which has the risk at the end. It is what happens when you take on aging players like Crawford and Gonzo. Crawfish is done, but the Dodger paid his last two years of $42 million for ZILCH production and Gonzo is declining faster than me. He is owed $43 Million. In 2018, all of these bad deals end. We are competitive now, but watch what happens in the future.

I haven’t said Urias will pitch 200 innings but I said he would “push 200 innings.”

Dodgers signing Brandon Morrow for the ‘pen. High-upside, injury history. Limited exposure 1.25mm if he makes the roster.

DYK: Morrow was taken two spots ahead of Kershaw in the draft, so the Dodgers are getting the steal of the century.

You beat me…

Low Risk – High Reward!

It’s a great day to be a Dodger Fan at LA DODGER TALK.

Everyone is awesome.

Thank you for showing up.

I think that Urias can become a top of the rotation type of guy with the right attitude. He’s got the stuff, Roberts should start pushing him to go straight at batters. Sort of like Lasorda did with Hershiser. His pitch counts are too high.

Hawkeye,

Where did you hear that the Phillies were even considering a deal for Hamels that involved JDL and SVS? Two years ago, JDL was almost as highly regarded as Urias, but SVS has always been a journeyman. I did hear that Amaro did back off Urias but insisted that Pederson or Seager be included along with JDL and others.

Bill Polian is consulting with Jim Irsay as he decides who the Colts new GM will be. That’s pretty interesting!

No particular topic today as we tread water waiting for February 15th. Throw anything out there…

Great news if accurate.

I am hopeful about Ryu, but have no expectations. If he is healthy, we could have four lefties in the rotation.

I do not agree with putting Urias on an extended Spring Training. I say let him go and see where he is at “pitch-wise” by June. Then DL him for 2 starts (10 days). Do the same in August and early September. I still think he will be close to 200 IP. Felix Hernandez threw 191 as 20 year-old. So have others. The Dodgers have babied him up to now. It’s time to let him pitch. 25 starts is about right.

It’s not the innings so much as it is number of pitches. If he can be stingier on his number of pitches, then he can pitch more innings.