Yogi Berra was one of the greatest players to play the game. He played in 14 World Series and won 10 of them. He was great on both sides of the baseball setting records for most home runs by a catcher (313) and most consecutive errorless games (148), and was a three-time MVP. He also served our country in the US Navy from 1943-1946. After his playing career, he managed the two remaining NY teams and won a pennant with each.
When Yogi spoke, you better listen. He was as wise as they come and had the baseball accomplishments to back it up. A master of nonsequiturs, Yogi knew how to communicate a simple truth in the simplest of ways. Wise tidbits that are easy to hold onto, understand, and apply in future situations. He was a walking, talking book of proverbs if you will.
Two of may favorites are ones that apply directly to our Dodgers management team. I suggest they should chew on these and try to use them going forward as a mantra for all future Dodgers teams they’re a part of…
“You can observe a lot by watching.”
Yogi didn’t become one of the greatest players, scratch that, PERSONS to ever play the game on talent alone. It takes more than swing mechanics and fielding repetition to become great. It takes a strong will to be the best and it takes a vast understanding of a simple game. How else does a bad catcher, turned outfielder, go back to catching and become one of the best ever? You need to pay attention to your surroundings and pick up on the little things. These tidbits provide clues on how to play the game the right way.
“Baseball is 90 percent mental, the other half is physical.”
Lost in our recent Dodgers teams is this simple truth. Analytics is dumbing down the sport like “smartphones” are dumbing down humanity. We’ve become all too reliant on what the computer tells us instead of using our own capacities, our senses, our humanity. We find ourselves sticking to the script instead of reading the room.
A great example of this is the shift and hitting into it. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. A never ending for-each loop that the Dodgers, and much of baseball, just can’t seem to get out of. Modern hitting coaches teach players to pull and lift, so the defense is almost always stacked on the pull side leaving a gaping hole on the weak side. No one adjusted and now we have a new rule to counter this phenomenon instead of adapting to it. The stats say “Hit this way”, yet offense is waning, there’s more strikeouts than ever, batting averages are plummeting and no one is making an adjustment.
Cody Bellinger is the poster boy for this conundrum. He is a dead pull hitter and much of his success is swinging from his heels and putting the ball over the fence, mostly to his pull side. He often scorches ground balls and liners to the same pull side, only to be met by the glove of the rover in shallow right or the other two infielders stacked on the pull side of the diamond. Instead of watching and observing, ten making an adjustment, he gets frustrated while continuing to punch himself in the face and it all turns into a downward spiral. Common sense tells me that taking what’s given and hitting the ball the other way would get him to first base and spare the team an out in an inning where avoiding outs is the most important aspect of scoring. His elite speed can turn that single into a double at a rate that outperforms all of those hard liners for outs.
The Andrew Friedman End of Season Presser
I’m going to paraphrase here, but sill capture the essence of the Q and A session. But, on a side note I’d like to ask if it’s intentional that you can almost never make out the question that’s being asked? Andrew’s answers come out clear as day, but the reporter’s question is mostly impossible to hear. Surely we have the technology to resolve this? I digress. Let’s get started shall we?
He immediately breaks down the reason for the loss is hitting with RISP. Is it baseball or are there things we can do to improve upon that? We had more opportunities, but the Padres capitalized with runners in scoring position.
He goes on to state that analytics means different things to different people, but surmises his definition as “Analytics is matching our strengths vs others’ weaknesses.” – Fair enough. I can immediately see where this is going. We did everything right, but it just didn’t work out.
He was as asked if he would build a team differently for the postseason than for the regular season. He deflected by saying he believes the best team doesn’t win the World Series every year, he says the hottest team wins it. – Okay then. Accountability be dammed.
Andrew continues and goes on to say that It’s an organizational failure for losing this year. But, really offered no explanation of what that means. Wow, he must be really good at Dodgeball.
Reflecting on his thoughts, how do we put ourselves into the position to be the hottest team? I don’t have the answer for that, but we’ll definitely spend time trying to figure that out.
Time out!!! WTF kind of answer is that? He says that being the hottest team is what gets you a World Series, but doesn’t know how to be the hottest team or get the team hot? But, they’re going to spend time on figuring this out? Well, WTF have you been doing for the last seven years? Damn, I think I’ll use that one on my next job interview. Whenever I come up to a tough question, I’ll just say “I don’t know, but I’ll spend time on figuring it out.”
Next, he was asked about the 7th inning. Specifically about Phillips. There are decisions that are 50/50, or 55/45. If those moves would have worked, Dave would have gotten praise for them. – He didn’t acknowledge that a mistake was made (or any of the many). He’s still sticking to the script. If the computer says this guy has a higher probability in this situation, that it’s the right decision.
This is where the dumbing down of humanity is in plain sight. “But, this guy was 1-7 with 4 K’s against that pitcher”. It had to be the right move. Oh yeah, how many of those those 7 Ab’s had runners on? How many in blowouts where motivation is limited? How many was when the pitcher was on 3 days rest? How many when the pitcher wasn’t warm? All these things come into play especially with a small sample size. Now, that he’s 2-8 with some RBI does that decision change next time? Yency was better against lefties than righties all year. He just got two righties out. Don’t those things come into play here?
At some point Andrew was asked about Mookie’s performance. He responded saying that he hit the ball hard a few times and they found gloves and that the umpire called a lot of balls strikes against him. These were the same as my own observations. He failed to mention RISP in his assessment of Mookie. I wonder why.
When the reporter asked who makes these decisions, referring to the 7th inning, Andrew got really touchy here. He started by cutting of the reporter as he was speaking. After every season, I’ve answered that question. It’s 100% Dave that makes those decisions. If it ever changes, I will let people know. Really? That’s how you answer that question? Excuse me but methinks the lady doth protest too much!
Asked if Dave was coming back? 100%. The reporter pointed to Phillies getting hot after changing their manager and Andrew came back to RISP. Maybe if we felt a different voice would help us cash in those situations with runners in scoring position than maybe we would. – Okay then, back to stats now. It’s RISP’s fault, and remember we have no clue how to control RISP, but we’re “Definitely” going to spend time on that this offseason.
He went on to say that Dave and his coaching staff did an incredible job during the season coaching this team to 111 wins. No changes to the coaching staff. – Okay, I can understand this as a rational position. Even as I wrote about firing Doc, I knew that lofty mark would all but prevent it. But, another rational position would be that Dave has thrown away a game in each postseason series in which we were eliminated, and even one in the World Series we won. It’s already hard to win in the postseason. Isn’t it harder when you always throw one game away?
At this point in the interview (Around the 22 minute mark) he must have mentioned RISP somewhere between half a dozen to a dozen times. He said that a lot of it is when a pitcher really executes his pitches, the batter is almost always out. Makes it hard to have a very steady line in terms of what your production is in those moments, but obviously (MY MOST HATED TERM. Because it’s obviously not obvious. If it was he would have ananswer) anything we can do to improve it, even on the margins, is definitely worth it. Hmmm, improving RISP on the margins, but not knowing how to improve RISP…”But, it’s definitely worth it.”? **Expletive** Is this really how he thinks? I can see another Hanser type signing in our future for a guy that had high RISP only to lose it as soon as we sign them.
Do you expect to replace Trea with a star level bat if he leaves? Andrew doesn’t know because he didn’t expect to be talking about 2023 right now. But, he’s going to use this time wisely to make sure he isn’t sitting in a press conference at this juncture next season. Wow, he’s going to spend a lot of time cracking the RISP code this offseason. Thank God we have AF on the job cracking the RISP code instead of thinking about player personnel! THE ONE FREAKING THING HE’S TRUELY RESPONSIBLE FOR!!!
He mentioned not getting hits in those situations again. Brandon Gomes finally spoke, after 20 minutes into the interview sitting like a bump on a log. He talked about having a great pitching staff and not having a closer trusting Doc to choose the right pitcher in any situation is something they were comfortable with. – Well, that worked out well consider that Doc seemingly saved the one guy that put out fires like the one in the seventh inning all season long to pitch at the end of the game. Do you want to think about you answer and resubmit it for partial credit?
Any regrets not adding a starting pitcher at the deadline? We are tasked to do everything we can to win in the current year, but also maintain our future outlook. If something made sense, we would have made a deal, but he doesn’t regret not doing a bad deal for us. – Okay, so you thought the price was too high. I don’t want to bash on the pitching too much here. May was coming along nicely at the time and Gonso was on fire. They carry 45-50 pitchers between the 40-man and the 60-day IL. How the hell do they always run out of pitching in the postseason EVERY DAMN YEAR? It can’t possibly be the script.
He continued about the pitching staff stating that it was the best he’s ever had. – Again, I agree completely here. They had so many pitchers that they passed over several good options to get to the post-season roster. Rumor was that V-Gone would be ready for the NLCS. Why wasn’t he ready for the DS?
Reporter said the fans want some changes to the staff, front office, something. What do you say to those fans? The passion they have is shared, and their disappointment is shared, blah, blah, blah… We aren’t making any changes to the front office or coaching staff.
He continued deflecting while siting the randomness of the playoff tournament. Doesn’t think that making a personnel change would be beneficial. But conceded that they need to learn and make improvements together…whatever we can do to improve our chances next year. – Excuse me Andrew, your 111 win team earned home field advantage throughout the playoffs. You’re not going to make any changes to how you run the club, or the personnel involved with running the club, but somehow you’re gonna figure out how to get better next year? Isn’t this the definition of insanity?
They talked about Belli. He’s got elite defense and there’s still upside with Belli. Asked about JT, they didn’t want to answer that question, not prepared to talk about the team personnel at this point.
So, they were willing to comment about Belli, but not about JT? I completely agree, there’s no need to bring JT back. He’s a great guy and had a hell of a hot streak. But, old guys break, he broke, and was broken in the postseason. Better a year too early than a year too late. Andrew really needs to start remembering these idoms.
Is the current level of spending sustainable? There are times when payroll is higher and other times where it isn’t as high. The front office will do everything they can to win a World Series. A lot of reduced payroll happens as a result of younger players being ready. We currently have a lot of talented players at the upper levels and part of the focus will be how many we can to look to at the beginning of the year, how many to integrate during the year to serve as depth during the year to gain experience to be part of the core going forward. – This was the best news in this presser. Most likely there isn’t a budget defined. The good news is there isn’t a need to define one. This team is rich AF. I would have loved it if he just came out and said “We have a shit-ton of money, we can spend as much as we like every year.”
Clayton, no qualifying offer because he’s going to give Clayton time to figure out what’s best for him and his family. – This is fine with me. At this point, with all of starting pitching options we have, it really doesn’t matter if we bring CK back or not. It’s more important to avoid the embarrassment of him bolting to go play in Texas. If he comes back, he’s a solid option to limit innings on all the pitchers we have that are unprepared to cross the 200 inning mark. I just hope the rest of the staff is healthy enough to not have to lean on Clayton in the postseason.
When asked about the cap. He does not have to reset salary cap. He answered this question very as a matter of factly. Easiest question of the day.
Summing it all up
There’s a lot I like about Andrew Friedman. He does a great job finding really good role players at times, especially in the pitching department. He has a highly rated farm system even though he always picks last. Overall he does a great job at what a traditional General Manager is responsible for. I also appreciate that scouting is valued, as many stat geeks don’t value them as much as they should. I also like that he gives his guys chances to learn and improve. I think it’s a good mantra to invest in the guys you have because it takes a lot of time to bring new guys up to speed. Turnover is very costly to businesses. But, you also need to know when it’s time to cut bait and that’s when you people don’t learn from their mistakes.
Andrew could improve overall by understanding that this game is “90% mental and the other half is physical” and to “observe a lot by watching.”
Throughout the presser he was laser focused in blaming RISP for this failure. Completely ignoring what every reporter saw when answering questions about the pitching, more specifically the pitching moves in the 7th inning of game 4.
Andrew is just completely failing at observing what he’s watching. I can see him now telling his geeks to compile a list of hitters that have high RISP. Another with high RISP in the postseason. One for RISP against righties and another against lefties. Create an algorithm that selects these players while considering a list of conditions to spit out a list of players and create a lineup that optimizes them for scoring. Good luck Andrew! You’re dealing with humans here. Maybe you should observer the 100+ years of wisdom where your leadoff guy is fast, get’s on base and can steal, the second hitter that can make a lot of contact, stay out of a double play, and move a runner over, you best hitter batting third and your most power who can also make contact fourth, a guy like Muncy 5th, etc.
Maybe you should consider what can be done to get his players to have a higher RISP. I have some suggestions; sacrifice, squeeze play, hit and run, hit the other way, go with the pitch, and steal some bases. Nah, the geeks already proved that’s not the right way to play the game. Let’s get on base, strike out and wait for a double or homer and wonder why we don’t hit in the postseason when you face great pitching. Maybe the geeks should break away from writing code and playing with the game simulator (MLB the Show), go to the park every night and observe by watching.
After observing the things that Andrew spoke about while watching his presser I’ve come to the conclusion that we’re effed. Nothing is going to change. They cracked the code to winning during a long season, but winning in the postseason is in direct contrast to the principles that they’re so deeply invested in.
The game of baseball is about making observations and reacting to those observations. Some people describe it as being a “ball player” or having a “High baseball IQ”. Knowing what to look for and exploiting it. You just aren’t going to get that with algorithms and spreadsheets searching for RISP stats. You aren’t going to get results by taking out a pitcher that has a 65% chance of getting an out and replacing him with a guy that has 70% of getting an out without considering that the cold pitcher’s 5% advantage is negated by being cold and entering the game in an unfavorable count. He just doesn’t seem to have the capacity to recognize that following the script and getting poor results isn’t an outlier when it sends the best team home early, year after year.
Not a damn thing is going to change. Doc’s job is safe as long as he’s following the script and Andrew’s is safe as long as the club is selling tickets, beer, hotdogs and jerseys. That’s what’s important to management. Championships are a byproduct of luck and hot streaks.
Discussion (35)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The greatest example of luck might Dennis Eckersley pitching to Gibson who could barely walk and hits the home run that completely changed the emotions of both teams.
Baseball can be cruel for one team and amazing for another team. Hopefully next year we can find that lucky moment that changes everything for us.
Go Dodger’s!!
Hey Scott at LADR , what did you do to mark that really got him pissed off at you.
Thanks Bear. Appreciate the reply.
I do not believe in luck.
Luck would say something happens by chance without the input of a player causing the result whether it’s a positive or negative result.
The player was there but doesn’t contribute toward the result.
And luck, (a non thing) somehow is responsible for the results.
I can understand saying
“ things went our way, or things didn’t “ but I would suggest that was the results of action taken by players, our or there’s.
It not a hill to die on but doesn’t seem reasonable. And if luck is real, let’s stop blaming Doc for the moves he makes or doesn’t and just say he was unlucky with that move.
Or instead of luck, say Muncy was in the wrong position. Etc etc
Just might 2 cents.
For my own education, would one of you guys who keep advocating that to win you need a certain amount of luck, would you define what you are calling luck ?
Just curious.
B &P your whole commentary is Monday morning quarterbacking. “Here’s what you did, here’s why it didn’t work, here’s what you should do”. I enjoy your reports and commentary but you seem to be very defensive.
Questioning AF’s and DR’s actions, etc. after the fact isn’t a sin but it is Monday morning quarterbacking.
I just took another look at John Wooden’s “Pyramid of Success.”
He doesn’t mention luck.
A block near the peak is labeled “Competitive Greatness.”
As Wooden puts it: “Be at your best when your best is needed. Enjoyment of a difficult challenge.”
You all have done great without me.
Hell, you may be better off without me….
What one change would you make that might be the game changer going forward in future playoffs?
Based on what I have seen and feel, we need at least three starters that are allowed to go 6-7 innings each.
That to me appears to be our Achilles heal. Over used and over exposed relief pitching.
Basically the Dodgers lost because there were too many swing and miss/3 true outcome players and platoon players and the bench sucked and poor in game pitching decisions AGAIN. Pretty simple.
I really enjoy reading LADT. You guys really put a lot of thought and work into both the main essay and the comments you post. Thoughts about the future of the team, player moves, etc. are fun to read as we all try to be the greatest GM ever. The comments about the past results are not nearly so fun. Playing Monday morning quarterback is the easiest thing of all to do. Of course, after the game is over anyone can go back and point out why their team lost and what they could have done. in theory, to win the game. As we all like to say, even Ray Charles could see that! I guess it is cathartic but doesn’t really move the ball forward. The Padres were the better team. Our guys didn’t perform well.
Why? I dunno nor, apparently, does AF or DR. If someone knows how to get the best out of each player for every playoff game please step forward. The Dodgers had a great year. I’m proud of them. They got flat during the final weeks and it carried over to the playoffs. That’s the human element of sports. We’ll try again next year.
Go Blue!
It is amazing how many smart , very baseball savvy people post here. The disagreements (everybody was civil) today really make the board more interesting.
After thinking about it, I’m sure it is a comfort to all Dodger fans that according to analytics and statistics, the Dodgers beat the Padres and go on to win the World Series.
Wow, Phil, quite the prognosticator.
Is it true that you actually got access to a video of the playoff series 3 days before it happened. Sure seems like it based on what your pre-series analysis looks like.
Prior to the start of our playoffs, I wrote “Why We Will Win the WS” and “Why we Won’t”. I revisit that:
The Dodgers will lose because:
* The bats can struggle with quality pitching. In our losses we hit .200. The faucet can be wide open but can shut off for long stretches. (the faucet was off)
* The bottom of the order fails to hit and K’s too much.
(6-9, JT =.154, Thompson= .154, CT3= 0, Belli .143. Toss in Mookie at .143., Gallo DNP. I suggested that Lux had to break up this group and he hit .308) Winner, winner Chicken Dinner on this one.
* Doc makes questionable moves. He’s been good all year but pulls a dead rabbit out of his hat.
( B&P and many others have pointed out Doc’s in-game decisions where the players were not put in the best positions for the to succeed)
* We just run into a hot team in a short series. It’s hard to win the World Series and that’s why there are no repeat winners since 2000. (that was the case for not just our series)
* Shit happens. They say they all even out but maybe not in a 5 or 7 games series. Luck is in play.
(that’s been a hot topic including AF’s presser)
* The Dodgers don’t have glaring weaknesses. So the most likely reason they don’t win the World Series has more to do with what another team could do rather than what LA can’t do.
(in retrospect, we did have glaring weaknesses. I never liked our outfield in left and center except Belli’s defense. I’m not sure if we arrogantly thought we could fix Gallo. Thompson showed that leopards can’t change their spots)
I would pitch around Freeman every chance I get. Smith will be critical behind him. (Smith didn’t hit)
A short series can magnify a bad week for any player. 1 for 15 in July is meaningless. 1 for 15 in the playoffs and you’re a goat. (see AF’s presser)
Big time players show up in critical times. We have big-time players. (history is full of stars who flopped in a World Series. And nobodies who made their career in one series -see Bucky Dent)
It’s too bad it worked out this way. But I’m not surprised and knew it was possible.
I’m loving the comments about reliance on data and analytics. I also liked AF confirming Doc has the freedom to make the in-game decisions. We know who’s to blame. He has freedom as long as it matches up with the pre-game script. I still long for the days when the hitters dictated when a pitch was done and not a computer predicting the future.
BulldogsandPenguins,
“I don’t always drink beer. But when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.” With that line as background as it relates to me commenting in LADT,– I don’t always comment here. But when I do, I prefer to note excellence. Your lead Post was really well written. I think you could write professionally for the LA Times. WTH, Plaske does. I am not saying I agreed with everything, just saying you did a great job and clearly spent some time on it.
If, as AF says, Doc is making the in game decisions, AF must approve of them. Otherwise you’d think he’d be upset with those decisions.
Still doesn’t make sense.
Interesting take BP. I don’t disagree with much of what you’ve said.
Only thing I have to say is this:
I don’t really pay attention to what Doc or AF say to the media. Because they will answer certain questions the same way regardless what the actual answer is. The fact that Doc is not going anywhere is no surprise. And that’s pretty much the only thing he said that I completely believe. They aren’t going to air their dirty laundry out in public and AF will never criticize Doc in a press conference or an interview. Its like watching a politician being interviewed on one of the Sunday shows. They answer the questions. But the answers typically provide no insight beyond the party line talking points. What’s happening behind the scenes tends to stay behind the scenes, outside of “anonymous sources” reporters dig up. And the Dodgers simply don’t leak.
I won’t spend time analyzing what AF says. I’ll analyze what AF does. And he won’t be doing anything for a while. It’s wholly unsatisfying as a fan. But that’s the reality. IMHO.
Since so many of the in game decisions don’t make sense it doesn’t make sense there made unless a pregame script is being followed. Does that make sense ?
Another way to look at it is, “ Doc, you do what I tell you to do or your fired” Doc decides to do it.
Bear wrote and Friedman said this:
“When the reporter asked who makes these decisions, referring to the 7th inning, Andrew got really touchy here. He started by cutting of the reporter as he was speaking. After every season, I’ve answered that question. It’s 100% Dave that makes those decisions. If it ever changes, I will let people know.”
So to all the Doc apologists here (Mark I’m looking at you mostly, no offense though) apparently I was right all along, it’s DOC who makes the pitching change decisions.
So I will continue to criticize DOC for pitching changes that go against what the large enough sample size stats say.
Is it just me or maybe the dodgers had way too many 200 hitters on the roster, while people were screaming best lineup ever! Belli, muncy, Taylor, Barnes, Alberto, even turner for much of the year . Trace was pretty much a wavier wire player,( Friedman special) and while he did a good job during regular season, disappeared in playoffs I agree put some of our young players on the bench next year, upgrade 3rd and left and make impactful moves not frugal moves! Watching other teams still playing sucks! Like my bronco s lots hype, no results!
Great takes BP, a whole lot to digest. My personal opinion is worth spit, but my biggest gripe is the fact that once they clinched, they went on cruise control. They did not play the best lineup every day. Roberts and the brain trust went to the keep them safe mode, which after the last day of the season injury that took out Muncy last season makes some sense. But I would have still run my best 9 out there every night for at least a few innings anyway. How can a team get hot if they are not the same team night after night? Bellinger was just starting to hit, and hit with authority, and then the season was over and they got five days off. Not that it would make all that much difference, but the teams should be reseeded after the wild card is over. I also think the five days off played into this little drama. AF is a great spin-doctor, and I do agree that he skirted the real issues and used a classic mis-direct to get the reporters off of the question at hand. Yeah, RISP was part of the reason for the loss. So was the fact that they did not let one single starter go past 5 innings, Gonzo dug his own hole, but he wasn’t ready to go five anyway. The bullpen got a ton of work, and after being lights out much of the season, they folded. Oh yeah, how about making a trade at the deadline for a hitter who is actually above the Mendoza line and not below it. Joey Gallo was a huge bust.
I would not be against replacing Roberts. It may work… but it is not the cause. I am not in love with him.
This was actually a fantastic post.
“Lost in our recent Dodgers teams is this simple truth. Analytics is dumbing down the sport like “smartphones” are dumbing down humanity. We’ve become all too reliant on what the computer tells us instead of using our own capacities, our senses, our humanity. We find ourselves sticking to the script instead of reading the room.”
I’ve mentioned on a couple of occasions Billy Martin and this documentary I watched on him. The big takeaway for me was his amazing level of situational awareness. He noticed EVERYTHING … and remembered EVERYTHING. I’m not talking about stats or who matches up better against whom, but small things; things that most people wouldn’t notice or would find insignificant. Perhaps the third baseman has a certain mannerism, or drifts off the bag a little early before the pitch. He could immediately recognize these things and exploit it to advantage by instructing his players, when in a situation where they were taking lead off third, to take advantage.
Billy Martin could never manage an organization like the Dodgers, obviously, but there needs to be balance between stats, which are entirely based on an aggregate of past events, and the present, which means reacting to things as they unfold.
I think the single overriding flaw in basing decisions entirely on statistics is that they are based entirely on past events to predict future events, when in reality, nothing is constant. Players are perpetually aging, getting injured, getting healthy, getting hot, getting cold, having good games, having bad games. Statistics are absolutely predictable when the constants never change. There will always be 36 squares in a roulette wheel. The odds are clearly defined and never change. Baseball players and games situations are constantly changing.
Once again, a recommendation (Bochy) without the benefit of facts. Here are the facts:
Bochy 25 years managing, .497 regular season record, .571 post season record, 3 WS wins in 35 years or 1 out of 8
Roberts 7 years managing, .632 regular season record, .556 post season record, 1 WS win (again maybe 2???) in 7 years or 1 out of 7.
Only an idiot could see this and say “fire Dave and hire Bruce”. Oh well!!!!!!!!!!
Numbers actually do speak volumes. I know the argument about Doc having great talent and I have consistently showed that others with great talent did not have as good a record as Doc. After being told that Doc could not hold Tommy’s jock, I showed yesterday that Tommy during a 6 year period had the highest payroll in 2, the 2nd highest payroll in 2 and the 4th highest payroll in 2 of those years with only 1 trip to the postseason during those 6 years when he also had the benefit of high spending on players. Yet no response from Mr “I know better than all”.
I will agree it’s pretty disappointing that we have been knocked out in the Division Series twice in his 7 years but we also went to the LCS 5 times and the WS 3 times, winning it once and being cheated out of a second. Honestly this whole thing about “fire Roberts” gets very old.
Good points about taking the starters out to soon. Last year the starters were hurt or tired and it forced us to go to the bullpen way too often and early. This season it was deliberately and it cost again. Looks they never learn though they got a first hand look by the Rays and Cash in 2020. You can make a good case the Dodgers only win game 6 because the Rays made the same mistake the Dodgers have made year after year .
It taxes your bullpen and it exposes the weaker arms sooner or later. The longer your starter stays in the more you can rely on your leverage guys. Padres did that.
Plus the Dodgers do not have that lockdwon closer that Hader is. It is a huge advantage to your pen when you know you got that stopper at the end.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Once again B&P nailed it. It’s been said ad nauseam, and it’s true, this early playoff exit is on the players. FF, Max, TT and Gavin had great (FF) to average post season stats, but others were putrid. One alleged superstar and other stars failed on the BIG STAGE:
Mookie- .143 BA, .278 OBP, .214 SLG and .492 OPS w/ 4 K’s and 1 RBI
JT- .154 BA, .313 OBP, .154 SLG and .467 OPS w/ 3 K’s and 0 RBI
Trayce- .154 BA, .313 OBP, .154 SLG and .467 OPS w/ 6 K’s and 0 RBI
Belli- .143 BA, ..143 OBP, .143 SLG and .286 OPS w/ 4 K’s and 0 RBI
CT3- .000 BA, .000 OBP, .000 SLG AND .000 OPS w/ 5 K’S (7 ABS) AND 0 RBI
Mookie is obviously returning but is he really a SUPERSTAR? Trayce is what his track record says he is. A defensive replacement, a Sunday start occasionally, but not an everyday player. Bellinger is gone. Simply cannot pay the guy $18-20 Million to say, “he is a great defensive player.” I’ll take the K’s from Outman at an expense of $775,000 for the same or perhaps even better offensive stats.
Love the passion, the grit and the walk-off game advancing HR against the Cardinals in last year’s Wild Card game, but $15 million a year for his performance his “highway robbery.” He will be back, because after all who would take him in a trade for that AAV?
JT has to retire. It’s painful to watch him run and his bat is now as slow as mine and I’ve never played big league baseball. I can see him as a nice addition to the FO or perhaps the TV booth alongside Joe Davis.
I was sold early on when watching TT play SS and at that time was hoping to see the Dodger braintrust work to get him signed to a multi-year deal. Now…….not so much. His glove is suspect and if he is in love with the East coast as has been reported he should go get that big contract from the Yankees (if they don’t re-sign Judge) or the Phillies. If the Dodgers didn’t sign a 27 year-old Corey Seager for the $32.5 AAV he got from the Rangers I don’t see the Dodgers signing TT for $35 million+ he is seeking at 29 years-old.
It’s time to graduate the kids to the big leagues and see what happens.
They didn’t hit.
They didn’t get lucky.
I’m dubious on the “hot streak” excuse, I think there’s data that says that’s not historically accurate.
My theory has always been the goal of the front office is to be in a position to win the World Series as often as possible, because of how much of a crapshoot it is. Can’t really worry about Friedman if those are the parameters, he’s the best in the game!
I think Roberts is a net-negative, but the problem is that it’s hard to really find any evidence that a manager is consequential. Just from a “new voice” standpoint, I’d like to replace him.
Don’t think Bochy is viable as a candidate. I hear the Boston bench coach is well regarded, but i’m biased.
BP –
A thought provoking article that has a lot of interesting thoughts. I see Mark has “Championships are a by product of luck and hot streaks” as the salient point in winning championships. I agree with that statement but – IMO – neither of Yogi’s two truisms nor AF’s sabermetrics can identify that quality with any consistency.
One point of yours that I really like was regarding RISP. I thought your suggestion of using “sacrifice, squeeze play, hit and run, hit the other way, go with the pitch, and steal some bases” to improve RISP was right on! You can develop and identify players with these capabilities and I predict it will happen with the shift being abolished next year. In fact, the early day LA Dodgers did it that way on a consistent basis winning World Championships in 1959, 1963 and 1965. I would sure settle for that kind of record in the 21st century!
Keep up your good work!
Bruce Bochy is interviewing for managerial openings, just saying. I’m normally against having ex-Giants, but not in this case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDNxYKkSTdA
One thing I’ve been thinking about, the difference between the regular season and the postseason in regards to the Dodgers is that during the regular season they’re masterful at bailing out overused pitchers with others on the 40 man. If you lean heavily on the pen for a series or two during the season, they send guys to the IL or option them to the minors. You can’t do that in the postseason, so you better start leaning on the starters.
They rested their starters at the end of the season with a 6 man rotation and 80 something pitches per start. Was that designed to make them fresh for the postseason so they can go deeper? Or did it condition them so they couldn’t? Again, they had May on the roster instead of Ferguson, a lefty with a 1.88 ERA. They had to use Vesia in 3 of 4 games. Was that a smart move?
Good insights! I agree they need to be able to bunt, hit and run, hit oppo etc. They also need a little more edginess. They are all nice, never have outbursts, “stay within themselves” . When is the last time Roberts got thrown out of a game? I used to get thrown out on purpose when my team needed to get pumped. Lasorda closed the door and blew a gasket at the team. That gets the blood flowing!
In my opinion, you nailed it with the last sentence!
Championships are a byproduct of luck and hot streaks.
I’ll live and die with that.
Look no further than the Braves. In the 2021 Post-Season, Eddie Rosario was a one-man wrecking crew. He has 23 Hits, hit 3 HR, drove in 11, and walked eight times while hitting .383 with .456 OB% and 1.073 OPS (the only other Brave with a 1.000 OPS was Freddie Freeman).
This postseason he was 0-fer with no walks. Alex Anthropolus re-signed him because he was a player who produced in the Postseason… until he didn’t. He was a one-year wonder.
EXPLAIN THAT! OH, I know Brian Snitker and Alex Anthropolous went from geniuses to dumbasses. They were geniuses when Rosario delivered but dumbasses when he didn’t. Your whole argument is flawed! Winning is ALWAYS based upon player execution… the front office can only give the manager the players, and the manager can only manage. He can’t execute. Only the player can execute and this year, they did not.
The Dodgers under Friedman and Roberts have won more games than any other team More division championships etc. I am as disappointed as the next Dodger fan, however thinking you can create a season roster and then switch over to a playoff roster is nonsensicle.
Why don’t you be specific on the personnel changes you would have made to create the playoff monster you desire.
I think they are doing a fanstastic job and should be commended not criticized for the result.