More Bull About the Pen
After last night s stellar outing by the much-maligned Dodger bullpen, their Bullpen ERA dropped to 4.00, which is now the 9th best in all of baseball, just behind the often-praised bullpen of the New York Yankees. If you just consider the National League, the Dodgers are now ranked #4, just behind San Francisco, St. Louis and Atlanta. Without making ANY changes, I can see the Dodgers taking the #1 spot
After last night’s stellar outing by the much-maligned Dodger bullpen, their Bullpen ERA dropped to 4.00, which is now the 9th best in all of baseball, just behind the often-praised bullpen of the New York Yankees. If you just consider the National League, the Dodgers are now ranked #4, just behind San Francisco, St. Louis and Atlanta. Without making ANY changes, I can see the Dodgers taking the #1 spot by the end of the season (in the NL). Actually, I am willing to bet that they will be in the TOP THREE in all of MLB in bullpen ERA by the end of the year.
So, while we would all like to see the bullpen get even better, the fact of the matter is this: All teams and MOST closers are having issues right about now. I know that the Dodgers under Robert Van Socyoc are really focusing on their hitting against relievers. They are focused more than ever on location, hitting in certain zones only, pitch recognition with Virtual Reality headsets, and many other nuances. Relief pitching will likely never dominate the way it used to as hitters have a better idea of what is coming and what their strengths are.
Of course, if a pitcher executes his pitch, there is a much smaller likelihood that any hitter can hit it. However, I was listening to a “round table discussion” about pitchers executing their pitches. The consensus seems to be that if a pitcher executes his pitch (location, spin rate, deception, arm slot, release point) 2 out of 10 times, he is average, 3 out of 10 times, he is good and 4 out of 10 times, he is great! That still leaves hitter a lot of pitches to exploit.
Some of you need to immediately start searching for your minds, because you have lost them over this bullpen. Like I mentioned, it’s not perfect and of course, it can get better, but it’s a common problem throughout MLB. The Mets went out and got the best closer of 2018, but in 2019, they lead MLB is Blown Saves! The Nats spent big on the bullpen in the off-season and they are dead last in Reliever ERA. Colorado’s high-paid bullpen is a disaster and the Cubs who spent big on Craig Kimbrel are still waiting for his 6.75 ERA to come down.
Andrew Friedman is working his contacts, searching for ways to improve the bullpen. I am sure he feels the same as I do: “The Bullpen can never be too good!” But he also is not going to overpay. I still think Will Smith is the Dodgers best bet and I would also bet that Andrew and Farhan have a “handshake agreement” that the Dodgers can have the last chance to strike a deal if the Giants decide to trade him. I think they will be sellers, but I also believe it will be at the deadline. I think it is likely there will be a flurry of trade activity the last 24 hours before the deadline. It might be a Wild Ride.
Remember this: It seldom comes down to ONE PLAYER being the difference maker! This is a team game and the Dodgers success and failure will hinge on who steps up when the game is on the line.
Rants and Raves
- Dave Roberts was very stern in what he said to Kenley Jansen who stayed in the game when he should have came out. Basically, Doc said “I’m honest with you, you have to be honest with me and I am disappointed you weren’t.”
- Quick! Cody Bellinger leads the Dodgers with 77 RBI, Max Muncy is 2nd with 65. Who’s 3rd? Not J.T., not Joc, not Alex. It’s the guy so many fans want traded, DFA’ed or strung-up: Kike Hernandez has 47 in a lot fewer AB’s. Speaking of Kike, he is starting to feel more comfortable in the batters box. In the last 30 games he is hitting .250 with a .347 OB%. In the last 15, it’s .283 with a .377 OB% and in the past 7 games, he is hitting .318 with a .464 OB%. So, when you say, “He can’t hit” I say you have no clue. This has been a public service announcement.
- Max Muncy is not a guy who can move all over the diamond. He’s not as good at 3B, so in my opinion, when JT is out of the lineup, Kike should play 3B. Max will adapt, if you leave him there, but he is above average at 2B and 1B. Matt Beaty has played 3B in the minors 154 games. I wonder is he ids an option next year? J.T. may go to 1B next year.
- Today’s game is on YouTube… Early!
MT’s Minor League Lowdown
OKC -0 Gavin Lux hit 2 more HR and drove in all 5 runs as the Dodgers lost 7-5 to the Cubs.
Tulsa – McKinstry went 3-3 and the Drillers won 7-6 with only 2 extra base hits. Sheffield got his 5th save.
More to come…
More from Dodger Talk
Dodgers Food Trailer
I did this interview a couple of weeks ago with Chef Mike, who runs the Dodgers Food Trailer for the Great Lakes Loons. They are there for every home and road regular season and playoff game. They prepare three meals a day for approximately 50 people (players and coaches). Since games end late most evenings, they do not prepare breakfast. Many of their hotels have a complimentary breakfast anyway. However,…
Meet LAD 2026 Draft Picks 1-12
3 picks were High School players (2 SS and 1 OF). There was a college OF, college catcher, college SS, and 10 college pitchers. Of all the talk for a need for a catcher, the only catcher the Dodgers selected was Luke Bard, son of LAD bullpen coach Josh Bard. Bard was a 4th year senior from Houston Christian University. He is not a prospect, so the Dodgers are still…
Interview with Paul Beachy – Team Bus Driver For The Great Lakes Loons (LA Dodgers Minor League Team)
It’s been a few days since I did this interview. We have evidently been working my son-in-law (the video guy) like a rented mule at US Water Systems. However, I am taking him to London with me in a few days, so maybe Watford will buy him a pint as a tip, but he’s a dang Red Sox fan, so there is that! I thought that it would be interesting…
Thanks for Your Service: Chris Taylor
I was going to do this post when Chris announced he was retiring, then he changed his mind, but since the chances of him ever playing for the Dodgers again are slim and non-existent, I will go ahead with this post. He unretired, went on the IL, then decided to call it quits on May 24th. Taylor was born in Virginia Beach VA on August 29th, 1990. He attended Great…
Discussion (86)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Wow, when Seager got injured Taylor produced. Now Taylor got injured and it’s looking like Hernandez might produce.
This offense is incredible.
However you view the statistics, we need help in the pen. Can it come from within the organization? Certainly. Will it come from outside the organization? More than likely. My guess is that Urias may be back in the rotation by September. If not, he will be helpful. I’m also guessing that Kenley won’t be the primary closer by September (hope I’m wrong), but if regression continues, they’ll rely on him less and less as the year goes on. My dark horses for situational help in the pen are JT Chargois and Caleb F. I think they’ll be better than they are now, but not necessarily 7th or 8th inning guys, unless we have a big lead. I agree that Baez and Yimi need to pitch in non-stress situations. That all said, I do think we’ll add a reliever. Not one of the big three (Smith, Hand, Vasquez), probably more along the Roenis Elias lines.
From what I’ve observed about how Dave Roberts manages in the post season, the Dodgers need to get another high leverage reliever – this would be true whether our bullpen was performing or not. Roberts plays the matchups so much, he tends to be more trigger happy with pitching changes. In 2017, the bullpen was pretty good, but they seemed fatigued during the WS due to heavy use in the post season.
I just watched Muncy drop a pop fly (leading eventually to a run for the phillies). Yesterday, he missed a ground ball at 3rd that went underneath his glove. Maybe it’s time he find another glove…
I said this the other day.
I do think the team will acquire a high-value, high-leverage reliever.
But if the team hits like they did against the Red Sox last post-season, it isn’t going to mean bupkes.
The bullpen is mediocre at best. In fact in used to be you didn’t have a setup to get to the closer. Now arguably you don’t have either one. I cringe every time the bullpen is called on. Garcia is a homerun waiting to happen, floro can’t get lefties out, Baez is a 6th 7th inning guy, Kelly totally inconsistent you don’t mention him without saying if first, Alexander can’t get anybody out, Ferguson may come around but hasn’t yet, and those are our best ones.
If Kelly did start becoming consistent they are never going to have him close in certain situations because of loyalty yuck! Urias is our best reliever at this point. We still have a long way to go but if the bullpen doesn’t change it could be a short playoff season. One really good reliever who performs up to the hype would go a long way.
About every other day I’m going to say again “Joe Kelly is the key to the Dodger bullpen”. If he continues to do what he is doing he can be the bridge guy or the closer if Kenley falters or needs rest. He is absolutely filthy when he’s right. I’d love to acquire a pen leftie but trade or no trade, he is a major difference maker.
Jeff & Campy: Thanks
AC, I agree 100% on everything you said about the bullpen. I have long thought it was unfair to charge the pitcher turning over the game with runners on base to a reliever who allows the runs to score. I wondered if the reliever shouldn’t at least share the earned runs charged to the eras of the pitchers, maybe a 50 50 split.
Webster’s dictionary definition of “relief”. Is “to free from a burden, to give aid or help.” I just do not think that is being done all the time which makes the era stat erratic.
Dodger game Free on YouTube now.
John Rooney and Guillermo Zuniga promoted to Quakes from Loons.
Aaron Ochensenhein promoted from Raptors to Loons. Ryan Pepiot promoted to Loons from AZL Dodgers Mota.
A bit off topic but I have often wondered why JT has a smudge on the back of his jersey. Why?
Nice job of cherry-picking whatever stats makes an argument look palatable. ERA is a meaningless stat for relief pitchers. A reliever comes in with runners on base and allows those runners to score, and who gets the earned runs scored against? The pitcher who left the inherited runners, not the reliever. Let’s take a look at a couple of more meaningful relief pitcher stats.
Inherited Runners Scored (IRS) – LAD 41% of inherited runners have scored. Only the Nationals at 44% are worse, with Baltimore also at 41%. So 27 teams have a better inherited runners scored % than the Dodgers, and that is acceptable? Specifically the Dodger relief pitchers have inherited 107 runners which is 2nd least to Houston’s 88. That would seem to indicate that the Dodgers starting pitchers are doing their job.
Blown Saves – The Dodgers have blown 17 save opportunities. That places them 7th most blown saves. Save % – The Dodgers have saved 61.36% of their save opportunities, good for 19th best.
Holds – The Dodgers have 40 holds, good for 19th best.
Recap of true relief pitching stats:
IRS – Dodgers tied for 2nd worst
Blown Saves – Dodgers 7th most
Save % – Dodgers 19th best
Holds – Dodgers 19th best
If you look at all 4 of those stats, they would not be in the top third of MLB bullpens.
Individually:
Baez – 22 IR, 7 IRS, 0 Saves, 4 Blown Saves, 16 Holds
Floro – 22 IR, 8 IRS, 0 Saves, 3 Blown Saves, 4 Holds
Alexander – 18 IR, 10 IRS, 6 Holds
Jansen – 14 IR, 5 IRS, 23 Saves, 4 Blown Saves
Kelly – 7 IR, 3 IRS, 1 Save, 3 Blown Saves, 4 Holds
Chargois – 7 IR, 5 IRS
Garcia – 7 IR, 2 IRS, 0 Saves, 2 Blown Saves
Ferguson – 3 IR, 2 IRS, 3 Holds
Rosscup – 3 IR, 2 IRS
Santana – 2 IR, 0 IRS
Urias – 1 IR, 0 IRS, 3 Saves, 1 Blown Save, 3 Holds
Stewart – 1 IR, 0 IRS
Stripling – 3 Holds
So you think that Floro, Alexander, and Shaggy have been good for the bullpen? It is obvious that Baez and Garcia are best utilized in the 6th and 7th inning. They are not quality setup relievers, never have been. Kelly is getting better and may be a potential 8th inning reliever. So the Dodgers have a closer whose best years are seemingly behind him, no consistent setup guy, and a few decent middle relievers, and that is a good bullpen?
You said, “Some of you need to immediately start searching for your minds, because you have lost them over this bullpen.” I have searched for my mind and it did not take but a nanosecond to understand that this bullpen is not very good. I do not care how bad the Mets or Nationals or even the Cubs are. I only care that the ONE glaring weakness the Dodgers have is the bullpen, and they have the player capital to attempt to fix it.
As great of an organization as the Dodgers seemingly have, are you going to tell us that the Dodgers cannot replace one or two of Omar Estevez, Jeter Downs, Devin Mann, Jacob Amaya, or Tony Gonsolin, Mitchell White, Caleb Ferguson, Dennis Santana, Michael Grove, Edwin Uceta, Gerardo Carrillo, Robinson Ortiz, Jordan Sheffield, Marshall Kasowski? They all can’t play for the Dodgers, so pick the ones who are untouchable (realistically), and dangle the others. You do not need to give up 5 of them to get quality relievers. My untouchables would be Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Will Smith, Josiah Gray, and right now Keibert Ruiz until we know the severity of Will Smith’s injury.
What do I expect? Not much. AF values the bullpen as much as Mark, which means it is necessary but not critical. There are no guarantees in Baseball. Even if AF were to go out and get Vasquez, Yates, and Hand, that would not guarantee the Dodgers a WS Championship, but I would feel a whole lot better. I just hope this time AF looks for better quality than Axford, Rosscup, and Madson.
Gotta think one of our young catchers gets traded at deadline. It will be interesting who AF values more
With the Dodgers making it to the World Series two years in a row and coming up short, I don’t think they want to be the modern day Buffalo Bills. They may not even make it back to the World Series this year because it’s never a sure thing. I agree with 59, AF has to find a way to strengthen the bullpen before the trading deadline. I don’t believe he wants the LA fans turning on him for not doing anything because he won’t over pay to get a championship or at least give the Dodgers their best chance at getting a championship. What do we think was wrong with Muncy’s hand last night? When he swung and missed it looked painful. Lastly, Kenley threw Roberts under the bus after his melt down and Dave didn’t seem to like that at all. I like his response that he is honest with his players and expects that in return. If he felt he couldn’t continue, he needed to let Dave know. If Kelly continues to improve and Kenley continues to decline, we could see a role change. The game is on YouTube today. Go Blue
The Mets didn’t sign their 2019 11th round draft pick, a college senior. So the Dodgers jumped in and signed him as a FA. I wonder if that’s a sneaky good move, or is it just adding depth and then seeing if this guy becomes something? 11th rounder isn’t that shabby..
Lux is absolutely destroying things in OKC. The article linked below states that in the new midseason top 100: May is 9, Lux 11, Ruiz 13, and Will Smith 67. Gray is up to 110, and Gonsolin and Downs are near the top 125 range. That does give us some big time ammo to go shopping in the next 13 days!
Open on www.dodgersnation.comhttps://www.dodgersnation.com/top-la-dodgers-prospects-move-up-in-mid-season-rankings-amongst-prospect-gurus/2019/07/17/Well, the pen is trending the right way thanks to Urias being awesome, Alexander being on the DL and Kelly not sucking anymore. But, Jansen is the worst he’s ever been and just about everyone in-between, sans Baez is a roller coaster ride. The law of averages suggests they will not continue on and become the top bullpen without changes, but I like what you’re smoking! They’re opening a weed cafe in WeHo. Maybe it’ll be open for your next trip.
With a better pen, we would also have a better rotation because Urias would be in it. Jansen isn’t a nightmare, but he is more like a delirium dream.
A moot point because there is NO WAY IN HELL Andrew doesn’t improve the pen. It’s the biggest chink in the armour and it would be gross negligence not to improve the only flaw on an otherwise complete roster.
I’m gonna give Max a break on that bad throw. A more experienced third baseman would let the SS get that ball and he not very experienced at 3B. But, the master plan is to probably have Max focus on third once JT moves on because Lux is killing it and will wind up at 2B at some point.