It Gets Worse Before It Gets Better
Usually when change is involved, things get worse before they get better. That s true in just about everything: life, business and sports. Since this is a Dodger Blog, you might be wondering what that has to do with the Dodgers. So, I am talking about three pitchers in general: Joe Kelly, Kenley Jansen and Clayton Kershaw. I think that before Spring Training, the Dodgers had a plan with each pitcher .
Usually when change is involved, things get worse before they get better. That’s true in just about everything: life, business and sports. Since this is a Dodger Blog, you might be wondering what that has to do with the Dodgers. So, I am talking about three pitchers in general: Joe Kelly, Kenley Jansen and Clayton Kershaw.
I think that before Spring Training, the Dodgers had a plan with each pitcher. It wasn’t the same plan for each one, but it was a plan to change how they typically pitched, including pitch selection and pitch pattern. It took a couple of months, but in his last outing Kenley Jansen flashed the results of his newfound slider and mixing it up. Clayton Kershaw is more of an evolution, not a revolution, but his pitching pattern is also changing.
The Dodger’s plan with Joe Kelly was a little more audacious. The Dodgers wanted Joe Kelly to use his curve and changeup more. It’s not that Kelly was resistant, it was more like he wasn’t comfortable doing that yet. In his last outing before his meltdown last night, Kelly threw almost as many curves and changeups as fastballs. The results were pretty good and he looked to be turning the corner. NOT SO FAST!
Remember what happens with change. It’s clear to me that one of three things will happen with Joe Kelly: (1) He will stay the same; (2) He will get better; or (3) He will get even worse. The Dodgers signed Kelly for 3 years with the full intention of changing what type of pitcher he was. They think they saw something no one else did. Maybe they did… or maybe they saw something that wasn’t even there.
It’s over two months into the season and Joe Kelly still is not fixed. We have to consider the possibility that it won’t happen this year. Since he is signed for two and a half more seasons, he is not going to be cut, but maybe he has to take time off to clear his head. He is out of options so it’s going to have to be something “creative” to get him off the roster. 50% of the problem may be 80% mental. It’s in his head and Dave Roberts acknowledged as much. One can only hope it is just about ready to get better because it can’t get much worse. If not for the bullpen, this team might have a 10 game lead on the rest of baseball.
The Dodgers can’t assume Kelly will be “fixed” at least not this year. He might be suffering from Steve Sax Syndrome and may need a sports psychologist… or some such help. Contrary to what Andrew Friedman says, the Dodgers are actively looking for bullpen arms. With two months of the season gone, it appears that change is in order. It’s still possible that Honeycutt and Prior can solve Kelly’s problems, but I am not holding my breath.
Dodger Notes
- It was inevitable that Cody Bellinger would cool off. I have never said that Cody was Ted Wiliams, but there certainly are similarities. You can’t compare them until later in his career, but one cannot help but see the physical resemblance. Cody will adjust and will heat up again. Baseball is a game of streaks and getting locked in is something he certainly has done and will do. Teams are not pitching o him and he might be pressing because of that, but he will figure it out… sooner than later.
- It would be a bold move, but my opinion is that Ross Stripling and Kenta Maeda are both starters and both have considerable value. It may be time to trade those two arms for two high leverage bullpen arms. I know that injury plays a factor, but a rotation of Ryu, Kershaw, Buehler, Hill, and Urias is pretty dang good. Neither one is ever going to become a lockdown reliever – they simply aren’t wired that way. Urias is the same – he is a starter. It’s time to realize that and get some more guys who ARE relievers.
- BTW, for those of you who question Roberts taking out Stripling and bringing in Floro, do your homework. Trout owns Strip. Just because it didn’t work doesn’t mean it wasn’t the right move.
MINOR LEAGUE REPORT BY AC
OKC Dodgers 6 – Fresno Grizzlies 5 (Nats)
OKC had half of their 8 hits and scored all 6 runs in the 5th inning. After a two out three run HR off of Brock Stewart in the top of the 5th, the Dodgers found themselves trailing 3-0. A Jake Peter single, an Errol Robinson double (6), and a Joe Connor HBP loaded the bases for Zach Reks. Reks singled home 2 to narrow the lead to 3-2. Will Smith walked to reload the bases and a Shane Peterson triple (3) emptied the bases and the Dodgers took a 5-3 lead. Peterson then scored the final and as it turns out the deciding run on a wild pitch.
Stewart pitched a quality 4.2 innings before surrendering the HR. None of the four relievers who followed had a clean outing. Justin Grimm walked 2 in his 1.0 IP but did strike out 3. Stetson Allie and Jaime Schultz both allowed a run to get the score close. After a 2out single in the ninth, Kevin Quackenbush relieved Schultz and promptly loaded the bases before striking out Matt Reynolds to end the game.
Jake Peter had 2 hits including his 5th double, while Will Smith got his 9th double.
Tulsa Drillers had the night off before they start a 3-game series against the Frisco RoughRiders (Rangers).
RC Quakes 7 – Inland Empire 66ers 5 (LAA)
With their win last night, the Quakes have reduced their magic number to one with 6 games remaining to win the first half of the California League South. Down 1-0, Jordan Procyshen hit a 2-run double (3) giving the Quakes a 2-1 lead they never relinquished. Donovan Casey had two hits including a 2 run single in the 4th. However, the player of the game was the much-maligned CF Jeren Kendall who slugged his 3rd HR and hit his 4th triple. Nick Yarnall and Drew Avans each doubled for the 4th time this year.
Andre Jackson started his 2nd game for the Quakes after his June 4th promotion, and pitched 4.2 innings. He was certainly not sharp as he surrendered 10 hits and 2 walks to go with his 6 strikeouts. Melvin Jimenez followed with 2.1 innings. He did allow a 2-run 2-out HR to the recently signed and assigned OF Gareth Morgan but got the win. Logan Salow finished the final 2 innings without allowing a hit, although he did walk one and struck out 3 to get his 5th save.
The Quakes are now 14 games over .500 and will try to wrap up the Cal League Southern Division 1st half championship today as Gerardo Carrillo takes the bump for the final game of the five-game series against the 66ers.
Great Lakes Loons 8 – Iowa Cubs 3
The Loons continued with their march to the 1st half Midwest League Eastern Division championship with their victory over the Cubs. They have retained their 3.5 game lead over the Bowling Green Hot Rods (Tampa Bay), and 4.0 games over the Lake County Captains (Cleveland).
The Loons scored their 8 runs on 9 hits and 8 walks. Jacob Amaya, Miguel Vargas, and Leonel Valera each had two hits. Vargas had two doubles (17), while Amaya (16) and Chris Roller (7) each had a double.
RHSP Jose Martinez pitched the first 5.0 innings allowing 1 run on 3 hits. He registered 6 strikeouts without surrendering a walk. James Bruihl allowed 2 runs on 4 hits in his 0.2 IP before Zach Willeman came on to finish the final 3.1 shutout innings. In his 3.1 IP, he allowed a single and a walk but struck out 7 Cubs for his 1st save.
DSL Dodgers Bautista 4 – DSL Rays (1) 5
Diego Cartaya continued with his quick start to his professional career with another 3 hit game. The 17-year-old catcher went 3-5 with his 2nd double and 2 RBIs.
18-year-old RHP Abel Moya started his 2nd game and pitched 4.0 innings surrendered 2 runs on 2 hits and 1 walk. He did have 4 Ks in his 4.0 IP. LH relievers Cristian Peralta and Andrew Budier followed and allowed 3 unearned runs on 4 hits in their 1.0 inning each. 18-year-old RHP Axel Acevedo pitched 2 perfect innings with 2 K’s and 17-year-old RHP Heisell Baro finished the game and pitched a perfect 1.0 inning. Acevedo has now appeared in 3 games and pitched 5.0 scoreless innings giving up 1 hit and 2 walks, with 5 Ks. Baro has also appeared in 3 games and has pitched 4.0 scoreless and hitless innings. He has issued 1 walk while striking out 5.
DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 7 – DSL Cubs (1) 2
The Shoemakers had 11 hits including 3 HRs; Hector Martinez (1), Christian Hidalgo (1), and Bladmir De La Rosa (2). 18-year-old CF Rushenten Tomsjansen had 3 hits while De La Rosa had 2. Martinez’s HR was a 3 run shot. 17-year-old OF Hidalgo walked three times in addition to his HR. Tomsjansen from Dordrecht, Netherlands is now batting .348 with 1 walk and 2 strikeouts in his 24 PA.
Yamil Castillo started and pitched 3.2 innings. He did surrender the 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks to go with his 4 Ks. 17-year-old RHP Eli Moron followed and pitched 2 shutout winnings to get his 2nd win. Carlos Rodriguez and Frankelyn Feliz pitched the final 3.0 scoreless innings.
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Discussion (135)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Fun outfielder stats department:
Open on baseballsavant.mlb.comhttps://baseballsavant.mlb.com/outs_above_average?type=player&year=2019&min=50Pederson, Verdugo, Bellinger, and Taylor have better stats than Pollock.
Dodgers team is ranked 10th.
Seager, Pederson, Stripling are the only Dodgers left that once shared a house. Others included Thompson and Wood. Reminds me of when Piazza and Karros shared a house. I tend to want to keep Seager, Pederson, and Stripling Dodgers.
I think the Dodgers will need Stripling in the rotation if Maeda is traded. There is still a needed pitch count on Urias. Maybe Maeda should be moved to the bullpen now instead of later.
If there is hope for Kelly, there is a team that would trade for him. Can’t have it both ways–hope and untradeable. Yes, the Dodgers would have to eat some salary or take back salary in the trade.
Reports are good on Fergusson so maybe he is back soon.
Oh man, what a shit show! To say something is wrong with Kelly is an understatement. I think he’ll turn it around, but it’s gonna take some time. I agree that it looks like the problem is between his ears.
Yeah, Stripling sucks against Trout. I guess everyone knew this before the inning started, so why have him start that inning when Trout is due up 4th? Why not walk him? Why not bring in Baez?
I guess these things happen when you don’t trust anyone in the pen. Kelly needs to cut himself making a sammich, and Ferguson needs to be called up ASAP.
After Kelly’s outing last night, they should just play circus music when he comes in from the pen.
I know I’m not alone. Mike Trout , steps up to the plate with a runner on and two outs, and there’s that muffled voice of reason in my head, strongly suggesting we should intentionally walk him. Sure, it potentially puts the go ahead man on base, but there’s two outs and the alternative is…well… what we unsurprisingly got. Our worst fear realized and my gut knew it was coming.
It’s frustrating wasting another fine effort from our starter, but I’m still hold course kind of fan. For a few reasons:
*The bullpen wasn’t the only thing that let us down to close the game. Didn’t we put two on with no outs in each of the last 3 innings, and couldn’t even produce a single run? And that’s not the first time, and it’s not the first time a debatable managerial decision possibly cost a game.
*I’m not sure what our success rate is trading or picking up relievers, but it’s spotty at best in the Friedman era and any sort of move is far from a guarantee in shoring up the pen. A lot of our young arms seem close, too. I’m just not a fan of the potential cost
*Despite the disappointing results, I think our relievers are trending up. Floro, did battle Trout fairly well considering, and showed good location at times. The last few outings, Kelly seems to be getting much better movement on his breaking balls than earlier in the season. I’m still buying in on Kelly and still tantalized by his potential as an automatic setup man for Jensen at some point.
*We’re getting outstanding production from our starters that wasn’t consistently there to start the season, and maybe we should exploit it. Maybe we should consider a 6 man rotation for a month or so and consistently push these guys into the 7th and 8th innings. Ideally, it would be Urias and either Kenta or Stripling, but I do worry about Urias’ work load just two years removed from his surgery. I think I’d rather he remain exclusively in the pen, be more aggressive with his innings next year.
*The bullpen picks up 1 or 2 regular starters for the playoffs and essentially acts as a new injection for the unit. If it were a closer race in the West, I’d be more aggressive, but I think this group can weather us thru the regular season.
Minor League Report Update Added Above
Cartaya is not disappointing.
Interesting viewpoint about the Pitching:
Open on www.mlbtraderumors.comhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/the-dodgers-bullpen-probably-looks-worse-than-it-is.htmlHi AC,
Really appreciated you response yesterday. You know a lot more about this than I do.
Couple of questions:
How hard is it to make a trade?
I mean, why do you need preliminary trade talks? To my simple mind, the process is:
Team A wants a player.
Team B says if the player is available.
Team A responds with a list of players they’d be willing to part with
team B begins to haggle.
Obviously some steps are repeated, some players are made available or unavailable.
Is this right? Which parts are preliminary?
Nomar said maybe Stripling is due against Trout. Yes, Trout was 5 for 5, including a HR. Nomar had a gut feeling, but Doc does not manage with his gut. Doc manages by the book. There were other options. You cannot let Trout beat you. I would rather pitch to anyone on the Angles than Trout in that situation. Walk him Doc. I said that to myself before they pitched to him. Stupid.
After all the crapola about DR, the pen and Kelly… The thing that sticks in my craw is the quote by Jansen… Goes something like this “Jansen has already gone on record saying he is the closer. Anyone coming to this team has to accept that.”
16 freaking million a year and he spews that s___!!! I saw first hand his sorry ass impersonating a catcher in A ball as a Dodger… We reinvented his arse and threats is what we get…
I’m 72 y.o. and I want another Ring before I leave this rock!!! Selfish??? You bet your sweet ass…
P.S and I would take Bum in a New York minute if he helped accomplish the above…
Hindsight is certainly 20-20 or maybe 20-10. Ross Stripling needs to pitch to stay remotely effective. He came on in the 7th as he should. Unfortunately he gave up a single with his 2 strikeouts. Shame on him for not being perfect. But it was the right move to take him out against Mike Trout. Trout is 2-2 with a HR and walk in 3 PA against Strip. Again unfortunately, the best the Dodgers can trot out is Dylan Floro who is quickly reminding some of us of Chris Hatcher. For all those who were so quick to give the heave-ho to Josh Fields, I am guessing that his 0.951 WHIP in 41.0 innings last year, while stranding all 9 runners inherited might look pretty good to Floro’s 1.130 WHIP in 23 innings, while 8 of his 22 inherited have scored. Of course, Fields’ $2.2MM contract last year compared to Floro’s $565K this year had nothing to do with the decision, right???
The Dodgers have the luxury of a big lead so they can keep trying Joe Kelly. But at some point he is going to need to be diagnosed with that mysterious arm injury so that they can fix his head. I do not believe he is wilting under the LA lights. LA is heaven compared to Boston, and he excelled on the WS big stage. Maybe the “fixing” of Joe Kelly will happen, but I would have liked to see him with his upper 90’s fastball up in the zone with the curve and change sprinkled in as opposed to the opposite. I do not see the reasoning of paying a relief pitcher $25MM for 3 years to “fix” him. Either he is effective the way he is/was or is isn’t/wasn’t, and you pass. Maybe it is time to let him go back to what is comfortable and then work with the re-design next winter.
I am pleased to see that some are agreeing with me that you cannot always take a starting pitcher, stick him in the pen and find success. Of course some starters have gone grudgingly screaming to the pen, only to find success…Andrew Miller, Brad Hand, Brandon Morrow, and of course Dennis Eckersly. But not all are that successful. Most are not. 2 different game/warm up approaches and mental makeup. Hopefully Caleb Ferguson’s transformation will take. Brock Stewart will always be a AAAA pitcher as long as he believes he must be a MLB starter. He now needs to move on so that his professional career can continue to move forward. Dennis Santana may be that same pitcher. Jordan Sheffield is making that transition and willingly. It will be to his benefit as he will make the ML roster as a reliever far quicker than he would have had he remained a starter (if he would have at all).
I do think Tony Gonsolin can move to the 25 man and become a reliever for this year if he can get healthy and get his innings up, because he has been a closer. But he is a starter now, and that is going to be his future with the Dodgers. But for 2019, give him a shot. But not before getting that bridge to Kenley via trade.
The Dodgers are now recognizing and acknowledging that difference in their draft. A good number of the pitchers drafted (if not most), are drafted as relievers.
I agree with Mark that either Maeda or Strip could be moved for that big time reliever. I actually can see a match with Cleveland and Brad Hand. Last winter, I thought that Strip might like a move to his home state of Texas in a Jose Leclerc trade. Of course, AF is probably thinking about 2020 and knowing that Hill and Ryu are FA and Urias cannot fill both spots. So Strip will be needed as a starter. Or maybe before now and the ASG, Tony Gonsolin will show that he is ready for that #5 spot in the rotation making Strip/Maeda available. There are so many scenarios that none of us have the knowledge of to make any intelligent proposal. But they are fun to speculate, and we Dodger fans have the luxury of a big 10.0 game lead to not panic.
Doc’s an idiot because 5 out of his 8 bullpen pieces can’t be trusted in a close game. And the other three haven’t exactly been lights out. What’s he to do?
I don’t question taking Stripling out against Trout. I question why he was put in in the first place and not used after Trout hit. I also blame Trout’s HR on Russell Martin as much as anyone. Calling for a pitch in the zone was dumb. Especially a pitch he just saw.
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This bullpen is horrid. Friedman better be very active this year in fixing the problem and not bring in the hot garbage that Zaidi did last year or this team will not make it to the World Series. This team has two quality relief pitchers. Kenley and Baez. They’ve got two starters working out of the pen in Urias and Stripling. Then rest are terrible right now.
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By the time they stop babying Urias he will be a free-agent. I agree that Stripling or Maeda should be dealt if it improves the pen dramatically. Maeda should probably be in the pen anyways. I look at the AAA roster and don’t see much help there.
Maeda being traded? lol. Maeda being sent to the BP? lol. He’s not going anywhere except to start another game.
Stripling really is the odd man out. Not a sustainable starter and not a sustainable reliever. I never really cared for him and called for his head 3 years ago.
Rumor has it that Joe Kelly is considering giving the money back to the Dodgers as he is not living up to their expectations.
Urias for Diaz. Others from both teams as needed to make the deal.
Alexander, Santana, Kelly, $$ for LeClerc.
Move Maeda to the pen.
2020 rotation: Kershaw, Buehler, May, White, Gonsolin. Stripling
2019 rotation: Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Stripling, Hill
2019 Pen: Jansen, Diaz, Baez, Fergusson, Maeda, Hatcher, LeClerc
Kelly was signed to be the set up guy and last night he made a mess, 3 BB’s, 2 WP (should have been 3 but one bounced right back to Martin off the backstop) plus an error on a pick off throw. What else is Doc supposed to do? He has to find out what he has. After Honeycutt when out and Kelly stayed in Doc stood on the top step and stared at Kelly as if to say ‘I’m not coming to get you, pitch the hell out of this’ and he did. It was a bad case of the yips yet he still made some pitches. It’s not physical, he can still dial it up, the talent is in there. He is signed for 3 years, the team has to use him, but can’t put him in high leverage right now. The team has a stretch of 18 games in a row coming up, 11 at home and the rotation will be tested. There will be a bullpen game in there somewhere. The stretch ends with 4 in Coors which wears out staffs. It might get worse before it gets better. Decision time for Doc and the brain trust.
Maybe a few days playing first base would break up the bad mojo Bellinger is going through right now. I know he loves playing right field but he plays the best first base on the team.
Dave Roberts shore looked frustrated during the Joe Kelly meltdown. A little better defense and some timely hitting with RISP and we have a much better outcome. Go Dodgers!
Belli needs to adjust. H needs to reread Ted Williams book. Swing at pitches you can do damage with. Take the walks. Verdugo needs to do the same. Both are pressing and swinging at pitches the pitcher wants them to. The ball isn’t jumping off Seager’s bat the way it used to either. Worry. Just a game, right. Yeah right. Baseball is ruthless. One night you hit a homerun and you’re the hero. The next night you make a bad throw and you’re the not a hero.
The only minor leaguer to make sense is gonsolin since he has relieved apparently. But he has to get here quick to acclimate. Ferguson will be up soon. Santana, chargois etc. been there done that. Urias for Diaz convulsive laughter 2. Stewart and joc for hand. I would hate to lose joc but you have to give up something to get something. Not going to happen but a thought.verdugo not going anywhere too cheap plus solid. I got a feeling we will be stuck with what we have, get a retread, while we watch the cubs win it.
Well, Trout owns everyone pretty much. Best in the game, now and maybe ever? Maybe not. Is he better than Willy? Maybe not.
I don’t get the whole “fix Kelly” thing. Kelly’s mix of pitches in the World Series was apparently enough to stop the Dodgers last year. It was enough to convince the Braintrust to spend $25 MM. But now, they mess with him and have him throw a different pitch mix.
I’m no fan of Kelly’s. He has never been consistent in his entire career. His control is spotty at best. But if you’re going to give a guy $25 MM you’d think that they would let him pitch and not “fix” him. Ask yourself – was he better last year or this year?
Why would Roberts ever bring him in under the circumstances that the team was in last night? OK – So you’ve use Stripling and Floro – are there no other relievers available that you would be more confident in for a high leverage situation?
The ‘pen – it’s a mess. Can you imagine going into the postseason with this mix of relievers to face the Yankees, Astros, Cubs, Brewers, etc? It’s not right – Ryu manages 7 innings allowing 1 run and the ‘pen can’t finish the job – as usual.
Funny how some won’t take Bumgarner on this team because he’s a jackass, even if it cost a ring.
Yet the same people rave about 1988 Champion Dodgers, who were led by a jackass left fielder…
The Cubs traded for that Jackass Aroldis. We didn’t.
Look how that ended.
I suggested awhile back that since Rich Hill is on the final year of his contract that the Dodgers might want to use him in a trade. I don’t know what kind of value he has. I also suggested awhile back that Floro is expendable as he is only effective against right handed hitters, again I don’t know what kind of value Floro has in a trade.
All I know is that I only trust Baez and somewhat Jansen in the bullpen.
I’d only want the Dodgers to trade for relievers that have a good OPS against in 2019 and for their career. That would clearly be an upgrade. None of this 650 or above OPS career or 2019 because the Dodgers already have several relievers with those stats. If they can’t get anybody 600ish or below OPS then nevermind, it’s not worth it.
According to Jim Callis, the Dodgers have signed Kody Hoese for the slot value assigned to the 25th pick of the draft. Take a little time off Kody, and then go rake at Ogden or Great Lakes. Perhaps you’ll be ready to take over for Turner in a few years!