It Could Be Over Tonight
It has been 32 years! In some ways that is a lifetime, but here we finally are: Ready to see if the Dodgers can clinch the 2020 World Series tonight. I would be remiss if I did not consider our Dodger brothers and sisters who are in the path of the wildfires and have had to evacuate or are facing evacuation. May the Big Dodger in the Sky be with
It has been 32 years! In some ways that is a lifetime, but here we finally are: Ready to see if the Dodgers can clinch the 2020 World Series tonight. I would be remiss if I did not consider our Dodger brothers and sisters who are in the path of the wildfires and have had to evacuate or are facing evacuation. May the Big Dodger in the Sky be with you all! Facing losing everything is incomprehensible! All I can think of is the Old Irish Proverb:
May the road rise to meet you
May the wind be at your back
May the sun shine warm upon your face
May the rain fall softly on your fields
And until we meet again
May you keep safe
In the gentle loving arms of God
Stay Safe my Brothers and Sisters!
At first blush, it seems like a mismatch. Blake Snell and his 3.33 ERA in the Postseason versus Tony Gonsolin and his 9.39 Postseason ERA. Some may think the Dodgers have no chance. I am going to suggest that you throw all of that hype and the stats out the window and see how it plays out. Several fans said that Dustin May should not pitch again in the Postseason and yet we saw how that worked out.
Tony Gonsolin has only pitched 1.1 innings this World Series and has logged 7.2 IP in the Postseason. Tony knows he can pitch to the big boys and I believe that Doc, Mark Prior, Clayton, and now even May are whispering in his ear “You can do this, Catman!” Katmando – I like that name! I usually refrain from gameday predictions, but just like I said that Dustin May would bounce back, I think the same thing about Tony Gonsolin. It would be HUGE if he went four or five innings… but we shall see.
Pitching is important, but the Dodgers’ bats can put a lot of pressure on the Rays tonight and they need to do exactly that. Cody Bellinger (.222), Mookie Betts (.284) and Will Smith (.197) are way past due. So is AJ Pollock (.231) for that matter!
The Dodgers have three players hitting over .300:
- Pederson – .382
- Seager – .344
- Barnes – .318
… and you also have to give Max Muncy a huge amount of credit. He is hitting .268 but leads the Dodgers with a .461 OB%. He is second to Corey Seager in RBI, and lots of fans wanted him outta’ the four-hole. Thank the Big Dodger in the Sky for Max Muncy.
Barnes and Smith have both caught Tony Gonsolin, but two of Tony’s best games were when Austin Barnes was his catcher. Now is not the time to find out if Smith catches the Catman as good as Austin. The disparity in runs allowed between when Smith is behind the plate and Barnes is behind the plate is too great. Smith can DH. Barnes needs to catch!
Look, I like Will Smith – he has exceeded my expectations by a lot. He is a great teammate with excellent skills, but Buehler, Kershaw, Treinen, and now May appear to pitch better with Austin as the Catcher. Will Smith is coachable and if he stays at Catcher, I am sure he will become the equal of Austin Barnes… but he is not RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW! Barnes is a better framer, signal-caller and blocks pitches better. Smith has a better arm, but it’s not a cannon.
If I were Dave Roberts, I would tell Will Smith to just focus on tearing up the baseball. “Get us some offense!” I might even shake up the bottom of the lineup a little… or not.
Some of you wonder if I am serious about moving Will Smith to 2B or 3B and all I can say is that is something that I believe could be on the table. I think it has to be considered. We all have high hopes for Gavin Lux, but so far, he has not fulfilled that promise. Certainly, he may, but Smith could be Plan B, especially since the Dodgers are so deep at Catcher with Barnes, Ruiz, and Cartaya (at about the time Barnes will walk).
BTW, the Red Sox feel that they got quite a haul for Mookie Betts. At 24, Alex Verdugo hit .308 with a .367 OB% and .844 OPS. He was 21st in the AL in WAR. The Red Sox are expecting Jeter Downs to be their 2B and Conner Wong to be their starting catcher as soon as 2021. The Dodger paid a huge price to get Mookie…. and they never looked back!
After the season is over, we will delve into each position, all the prospects, and what possibilities exist next year. But, right about now, the Dodgers have a World Series to win and that is their singular focus. Some have questioned why Buehler is not starting on 3 years rest? If you asked that question you also answered it: Three Days Rest! Anything is possible, depending upon the situation, Striker could pitch an inning or two tonight, but right about now, he is the safety net.
It’s all hands on deck and that includes Baez and Jansen. Yes, Jansen was the loser of game four, but he turned one bat into toothpicks and gave up a “bloop” hit. No hard contact! For that matter, if Cody had been healthy, the Series would be over. Even Joe Kelly is available. Dave Roberts has made it clear that the Dodgers do not have a closer, but they have lots of arms. The Young Turks have left their imprint on this Dodger team and we will enjoy watching them pitch for a long time into the future!
Forget Bullpen ERA – it’s all about ERA Period! Right about now the Rays are giving up 5.57 runs a game while the Dodgers are at 4.03 runs allowed! At this stage of the season, there are no starters or relievers – just pitchers! If I were forced to guess what will happen tonight, I would predict that the second time the Dodgers see Blake Snell will result in a blowout! I guarantee they will make him work and I think it is time for an offensive uprising!
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Discussion (213)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Kill the Monkey
I would like to see Pollack play instead of Smith. Yes Jansen some weak contact, but poor location none the less. That guy should have been struck out
It’s pretty obvious you’re really optimistic about tonight’s game Mark. And so am I!! I sure feel happy about it and I don’t think this kind of energy can turn out for not. There must be the smell of napalm in the air this morning because it sure smells like victory. The game will dictate which pitchers make the stabbings but vitals won’t show good for the Rays. This one will end with an “IT”S ABOUT GODDAMN TIME”! The Rays can say wait till next year as well as all the other teams and we will and the next and the next. CHEERS! And LETS DO THIS TONIGHT DODGERS!!
Let’s roll
I am very skeptical about Gonzo starting this game. He hasn’t had a good outing in a while but the Dodgers put themselves in a hard place regarding the rotation, this series. Gonzo should be watched like hawk and pulled if any loose ends begin to show. We may be forced into an opener type of game IF Gonzo doesn’t come to pitch. We’ve got plenty of arms to deliver a full game, but it should be the bats that deliver the message. Use Urias and May in a hold situation as first line defense. Buehler needs to stay out of this in case he is needed for a Game 7. The more pressure on Snell, the better our chances. If the bats choke, well, there’s always game 7 and more gray hairs to count. Doc should be sedated and prevented from any boneheaded moves. Kidnap him for the good of the team and the fans!
How will we all feel when it happens, I was 9 in 88, remember watching the games with my dad, special time as my parents divorced a year earlier and was a really tough time for me.
Took my son to 17 and 18 series games.
He is in school now, I went to Game 1 and 2 by myself in Dallas, met some great Dodger folks.
I dont know how I’ll feel but I do know I will enjoy the heck out of it.
Not counting chickens though; jobs not done.
I hope that they let Gonsolin be a starter and not an opener. Let him try to get through 3-4 innings. Don’t pull him after an inning if he happens to give up a hit or walks someone. But, maybe that’s not their plan for him. But, whatever the plan it’s important that Gonsolin know what is expected of him so he can mentally prepare himself.
If the Dodgers can repeat their performance against Snell from game 2 they should be in good shape. I guess it’s the times, but with Snell considered the ace of the Tampa starters I find it kind of amazing. He gets through 4.2 innings with 9 K’s and had held the Dodgers hitless for the first four innings. But, with throwing almost 90 pitches he wasn’t allowed to finish the fifth inning. So, if that’s considered ace material so be it. To believe you have a better pitcher in the BP in the fifth inning than your ace, then you don’t have an ace. He has great stuff but the Dodger hitters make him work and don’t chase many pitches out of the zone. With all the exposure the team has had against the Tampa BP the Dodger offense should be able to grind and be very productive. If this happens then the Dodgers are World Champions. Let’s make it so.
Two games to win one with a much better team. The only way we lose this year is if we beat ourselves.
IIn a recent interview,.Gonsolin said that after game 2, he was told he would be the game 6 starter (if there was a 6th game). This means that the Dodgers have confidence in him, and gave him lots of time to get mentally prepared for this game. This is the young man who was Baseball America’s choice for ROY. Yes, his ERA in the playoffs has sucked so far. But, it’s a small sample size. Let’s hope that he regresses to the mean in the positive sense – that his true talent displays itself tonight. You could say that the Dodgers were out of good options for a starter. Or you could say that he has been in their plans all along for a reason, which is his ability. Will he be on a short leash tonight? Probably, given what is at stake. Yet, if he gets through the first couple of innings and his stuff looks sharp, they will ride him as long as they can.
The Dodgers got 2 runs off Snell in less than 5 innings last time. This will be their second look at him. It’s the equivalent of his third time through their lineup. If they are patient but aggressive at the right moments, look out! They want to win this right now, bring it home now. Knowing that they have Buehler as a back-up, just in case, should take a little pressure off, and let them concentrate on the task at hand. I’m making no predictions, but am optimistic.
When Roberts declared that this is our year he knew that the Dodgers are the masters of the shortened seasons!
The Dodgers played the whole season to get to this game, now go out and close it out, do not let this team play another game.
By the way, if you are looking for portents, 32 – the number of years we are without a championship – is, of course, Sandy Koufax’s number! Thus, this may be a sign. Very unscientific, but nevertheless, a pleasing thought.
Last May I had come to the upsetting conclusion that Baseball was over for 2020 because of the contagious virus. I am now thrilled to be anxiously awaiting what could be the final game to a World Series victory for the Dodgers tonight.
I am also sad to think it might be the last time to see Pederson, Hernandez, Wood and maybe Turner in a Dodger’s uniform which to me won’t be the same next year.
I wish my Dodgers the best of luck and will be cheering them on in my battered old Dodger hat. Thank you for the article, Mark. It is so nice to see you feeling better and writing again.
I can’t believe how impatient you people are.
There are 30 MLB teams and it’s only been 32 years since our last title so technically we’re only two years late (one, if you consider there was no WS in ’94 because of the strike). Don’t you think it’s fair to let every team win once before we win again? Isn’t that what good sportsmanship is all about? Everyone should get a trophy.
In case you were wondering, 18 different teams have won since we last won in 1988.
OK, maybe we can cut in line and win this year even though it’s really not our turn yet. Here’s hoping.
Sports fans are rarely patient in any sport. You think Cubs fans liked going 100 years without the big prize? How about the Red Sox? The Curse of the Bambino lasted 86 years. Texas, Tampa, Seattle, the Padres, those teams have never won in their existence. Texas got the closest. They were one game away and some guy named Freeze peed in their pool. Laker fans waited what they considered way too long for what happened this year. King fans had Gretzky and did not win the title till years later. The Rams had to move to St.Louis to win the big game. SC fans have been waiting for what they consider too long to get back on top since Pete Carroll left. Sports are like love. You are in it for the long haul usually. And you want every year to be better than the last. It takes something really bad to cause you to stop loving. And constant disappointment erodes it. The difference with sports is that each year there are new pieces in the family to get to know and love. Some of them are in law’s you wish you did not have, but they have been around a long time so you tolerate them until they do something that just breaks the camels back, and you are done. There are no turns in baseball. It is more like enforcing your will. One team will enforce it’s will on the other tonight and will emerge the winner. That is simply the way it is. It is not like sharing toys with your sibling. You want the toy all for yourself, and that is how fans act.
Roberts stated that Gonsolin is not the opener. They expect to get some length out of him. He also said everyone is available except Urias, Buehler and Kershaw. I expect better results at the plate. They got Snell out of the game early last time, and they can do that again. This team is ready to get the win and take home the prize. You can just feel it. The Rays are a hugely talented team. But their BP has been tagged a bit by Dodger hitters and none of their starters have gone deep. It is time to end this.
I have a LAX – DFW flight at 7am tomorrow, free with my AA miles. I have a Hyatt room near the stadium tomorrow, free with my Hyatt points. I have a Enterprise rent-a-small SUV tomorrow, free with my ERAC points. I have a World Series ticket for game 7, free because I’m a genius.
BUT, I really really really do NOT want to go tomorrow. Please please please win tonight! I was there for Houston Game 7, and I don’t want to experience that ever again. Please win tonight and let me spend my evening celebrating and cancelling my itineraries !!!!!
Game 5 is behind us and game 6 was back on the rails. I’m confident we can get this done tonight but we certainly won’t lose 2 in a row.
Like Mark, I am spending NO time on next season; who’s in, who’s out. None of it. It will be fascinating but I’m right now all in on winning this bad boy.
* While I don’t consider myself as a slave to stats, I do looks at some things carefully. One is a player’s reverse splits. CT3, Kike and Mookie have large reverse splits in batting average, Mookie’s being .323 against righties and .200 against lefties, like Blake Snell. Here’s some interesting stuff about the Mookie Betts and Blake Snell match up tonight from Enos Sarris in the Athletic that I did not realize:
“You may have heard that Mookie Betts has had some troubles against left-handers this season. And yeah, he had a .531 OPS against lefties in 64 plate appearances this year. But he’s also had 27 plate appearances against Blake Snell, with an .892 OPS.
Neither of these things really matter.
In 925 plate appearances against left-handers, Betts has a .888 OPS. It’s a little weird that he’s been slightly better against righties (.897 OPS) than lefties despite the fact that you’d expect a batter to be better against opposite-handed pitchers, but it’s not something that should continue. The research says that a righty would need 2,200 plate appearances against left-handers before you believe his observed platoon split more than the league-average one. 2,200! Betts isn’t even halfway there.”
So my attention to reverse splits, according to this guy, is a waste of time.
* Also with the open managerial positions with the Tigers, Red Sox and White Sox there will be conversation about Alex Cora and AJ Hinch as they will be reinstated from their suspensions after the Series. It’s a divided industry on the hiring of both these guys. Have they served their sentences and be candidates for the openings or would it be harmful for a team to have one of these guys being the face of your franchise. Andy McCullough explores this today in the Athletic as well.
I’m a walking ad for the Athletic today.
So far the series has been win lose win lose win. I think it is time to break the cycle and win. Y’all down with that??????
I am confident that Gonsolin can deliver. Though he must have that split working and command. If he starts walking people they need to get him out quickly. When I have seen him pitch he can be lights out but totally lose it in one inning.
Please catch Barnes tonight. He is just the most confident and rested receiver. As a hitter Barnes works the count and can surprise. He could be the hero tonight if overlooked. How about a bases loaded double to clear the bases.
Betts needs to produce and seager, turner, Muncy continue. How about a streaky pollock having a breakout game. With the game on the line I could live with the result from May, bazooka, Treinen, Gonzalez but not Jansen, Kelly, and Baez.
Get it done tonight! No game 7!
Unsolicited advice to Andrew Friedman (who I assume reads this blog religiously)
– Barnes should be starting game 6 and stay in for the duration of the game. I trust Barnes right now to execute the team’s game plan much more than I trust Smith.
Plus he’s a great pitch framer, very good defender, and seems to keep his calm under pressure.
– If your name is not Walker or Clayton and you shake off a sign, you’re being benched immediately.
– If Will stays in the lineup, which I’m assuming he is… he should be moved down a bit to the #7 or #8 spot.
– This will be the first time Tony has pitched on regular rest in about a month?? So I’m hoping to see the guy we saw for most of the regular season. My leash for Tony would be around 75-80 pitches / 4 runs… somewhere around there. If he gets into trouble early on and the Rays have a big rally going… I’d bring in a higher leveredge guy to put out the fire and then have Wood come in to start the very next inning.
– I would definitely try to avoid using Baez and Kenley if it’s possible. If it’s not possible, then Baez could be used in the right spot with no runners on and against the bottom of the order… but only prior to the 7th inning. I would consider using Kenley in a similar way and would only bring him in prior to the 8th inning… but only if we’re up by 3+ runs, there’s no runners on, and we’re going through pitchers quickly and it’s unavoidable.
– If all goes according to plan and we’re up by a few runs late in the game, then I would love to see Graterol and Treinen handle the 8th and 9th.
Where’s the love for Joe Kelly. We need a little bullpen excitement! Tonight for Gonsolin. High heat and outside off speed!
Today’s Game 6 lineup (and god wiling the last lineup of 2020)
Mookie
Seager
JT
Muncy
Smith (DH)
Belli
CT3
Pollock
Barnes
Gonsolin
Tampa tonight:
Choi
Arozarena
Meadows
Lowe
Margot
Wendle
Adames
Kiermaier
Zunino
Blake Snell
Barnes will be catching, and Pollack in left field.