Is there more left in the tank?
In 2015, Clayton Kershaw’s Average Fastball velocity was 94 MPH. Even through minor injuries, he remained a dominant force, leaning on both high velocity and pinpoint command. By 2016, he was still ringing it in around 93.6 MPH, relying on that mid‑90s heat to set up his deadly…
In 2015, Clayton Kershaw’s Average Fastball velocity was 94 MPH. Even through minor injuries, he remained a dominant force, leaning on both high velocity and pinpoint command. By 2016, he was still ringing it in around 93.6 MPH, relying on that mid‑90s heat to set up his deadly off-speed arsenal. After 2016, the decline began. By 2018–2019, Kershaw’s heater had slipped into the 90–91 MPH range. At one point in 2018, about 20% of his fastballs were below 90 MPH, with over one-third of them sub‑90 MPH in 2019.
In 2018, his average speed sank to roughly 90.8 MPH, and by 2019, it bottomed out at around 90.3 MPH. Velocity loss cut into his margin for error — in‑zone fastballs became more hittable, and his HR/9 spiked to career highs. Undeterred, Kershaw pivoted. By 2020, his fastball velocity had climbed back to around 92 MPH, showcasing regained mechanics and strength.
Fast-forward to 2024, while Statcast reports a slightly higher velocity than Baseball Savant, I will deal with the reality of what I see, which is closer to Baseball Savant’s numbers than Statcast’s. Baseball Savant recorded him at 89.9 MPH in 2024, a drop from 90.7 MPH in 2023. This season, he has dropped even further to 89.1 MPH.
What Does This Mean for Kershaw?
- Less margin on fastballs – A heater once generating low‑90s becomes an “average” pitch if it only touches 90. Hitters react.
- Reliance on secondary maketh the man – With reduced speed, he leans harder on devastating off-speed pitches: slider, curve, change‑of‑pace.
- Meticulous command is critical – Every pitch location matters. He began nibbling more, avoiding riskier fastball contact.
- Adaptation defines longevity – Instead of folding, he tweaked his pitch mix, sequencing, and tempo, giving hitters fewer cues.
- Health and stamina – The dip may reflect wear and tear, but he has also incorporated intelligent training and mechanical adjustments.
Kershaw’s arm has bowed to time — a few ticks slower, a few fewer innings. But he’s extended his career by turning weakness into refinement as long as he continues to command his pitches with surgical precision, study hitters, and evolve his sequencing, that 89 MPH fastball becomes less about raw power and more about setting up angles and pace.
He’s no longer overpowering with velocity; he’s mesmerizing with intelligence. Hopefully!
That said, today is a critical start for him. This is his 5th outing. The Dodgers are flailing right about now. They are in a collective team slump, having scored just one run in the past 18 innings. If the Dodgers ever needed Clayton Kershaw to give them a shot in the arm, it is today! If he can utilize that 89 MPH fastball to set up hitters for his devastating Public Enemy Number One and his knee-buckling slider, all will be righted in Dodgerland. I think a masterful Clayton Kershaw would give the offense a huge kick-start and a shot in the arm.
However, if he continues to struggle as he has all year, this could be the beginning of the end, at least well into the end. I am rooting for the G.O.A.T.
It’s Not Outman Vs. Vargas
I still believe that a particular commenter here must be related to James Outman because, regularly, he brings him up with a compulsion rarely seen and then chides me for daring to say that I think he is a 4th or 5th outfielder… or worse. My comments about James blend stern accountability—Outman strikes out too much and can be a lineup liability—with conditional optimism—he has shown true high-leverage value when aggressive contact wins the day. I don’t know how anyone can pine for Outman when he has a career 40% strikeout rate in MLB and is at 54% this year… unless he is a relative. I have never thought or said that James Outman was a bad guy. He is a great guy. So is Joey Gallo, but neither one can hit MLB pitching. It’s delusional to think otherwise. For the love of God, can you just give it a rest? I love discussing prospects, and the Dodgers have more right now than they have in the past 20 years.
Hope, Rushing, DePaula, Sirota, and Freeland are all players who can be outstanding. Let’s enjoy watching them develop instead of beating a dead horse.
I continue to be amazed at the Arm Injuries sustained by Dodger Pitchers. Now it’s the Catman. As of today, here are the number of days lost to the IL COMBINED:
- Dodgers – 795 Days
- Astros – 390 Days
- Yankees – 330 Days
- Reds/Guardians – 195 Days
The Dodgers are far ahead in total IL impact, with nearly 800 IL-days accumulated by their pitchers, nearly double that of the next team. Why is this? There are several reasons:
1. High-Risk, High-Reward Pitching Staff
The Dodgers built a rotation loaded with injury-prone or recovering pitchers: Why? The Dodgers bet on upside — they signed or retained pitchers with elite stuff, knowing the risk of breakdowns.
2. Organizational Strategy: Build Depth, Accept Risk
LA’s front office prioritizes roster depth and workload management throughout the whole season. Their system is designed to cycle pitchers in and out of the IL to manage innings, protect long-term arms, and optimize playoff health rather than regular-season accumulation.
This means some IL stints may be precautionary or scheduled rest labeled as “inflammation” or “fatigue.”
3. Bad Luck + Attrition
Even with planning, injuries compounded early in 2025: Several pitchers went down simultaneously, putting stress on the depth. The bullpen followed suit, losing multiple high-leverage arms, forcing spot starts and heavy reliever workloads. This transformed what might have been staggered IL usage into a wave of simultaneous absences.
4. Pitching Style and Usage
Dodgers pitchers tend to emphasize velocity, spin rate, and breaking ball usage. This increases injury risk, particularly elbow and shoulder strain, over time. The same biomechanical trends that help Dodgers pitchers dominate are also what push them toward injury.
X-CITES
More from Dodger Talk
Dodgers Food Trailer
I did this interview a couple of weeks ago with Chef Mike, who runs the Dodgers Food Trailer for the Great Lakes Loons. They are there for every home and road regular season and playoff game. They prepare three meals a day for approximately 50 people (players and coaches). Since games end late most evenings, they do not prepare breakfast. Many of their hotels have a complimentary breakfast anyway. However,…
Meet LAD 2026 Draft Picks 1-12
3 picks were High School players (2 SS and 1 OF). There was a college OF, college catcher, college SS, and 10 college pitchers. Of all the talk for a need for a catcher, the only catcher the Dodgers selected was Luke Bard, son of LAD bullpen coach Josh Bard. Bard was a 4th year senior from Houston Christian University. He is not a prospect, so the Dodgers are still…
Interview with Paul Beachy – Team Bus Driver For The Great Lakes Loons (LA Dodgers Minor League Team)
It’s been a few days since I did this interview. We have evidently been working my son-in-law (the video guy) like a rented mule at US Water Systems. However, I am taking him to London with me in a few days, so maybe Watford will buy him a pint as a tip, but he’s a dang Red Sox fan, so there is that! I thought that it would be interesting…
Thanks for Your Service: Chris Taylor
I was going to do this post when Chris announced he was retiring, then he changed his mind, but since the chances of him ever playing for the Dodgers again are slim and non-existent, I will go ahead with this post. He unretired, went on the IL, then decided to call it quits on May 24th. Taylor was born in Virginia Beach VA on August 29th, 1990. He attended Great…
Discussion (58)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I’m in shock, I never expected those fuckers to score so many runs against May!
Not a fan of removing Kim.
That’s why AF signed Yates and Scott.
Very pleasing win and I especially enjoyed Machado getting punched out in extras!
Glasnow (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday in Los Angeles, Matthew Moreno of DodgerBlue.com reports.
“Glasnow has been moving in the right direction since it was reported at the end of May that he was experiencing general body soreness after throwing. “He’s doing really well,” stated manager Dave Roberts. “Very excited and anxious to start facing some hitters. So that’s coming too.” If all goes well during Glasnow’s side session, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him gain clearance for live BP later in the week”.
Snell (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
“Snell made about 10 throws off a mound over the weekend to a standing catcher, per Plunkett, and he’s now ready to take the next step in his throwing progression. The lefty hasn’t tossed from a mound since experiencing a setback in late April, so he’ll likely need to make it through at least a few side sessions before facing live hitters”.
Is it just me or is Dustin May painful to watch right about now? ….. I said earlier, if Will Smith ain’t the starter in the all star game then there shouldn’t be one!……. Could Mark smell something in the wind? is Conforto’s leash getting really short?……..Mookie looks goooood! told ya! …… Teo is starting to worry me. He’s all out of wack!….. I guess Doc wants to keep Kike involved , using him to pinch hit fot Kim. Maybe it is health reasons, but it can’t be for production reasons!…. Having eggs and fried crow for breakfast! Max is still playing well! crow is a little tough, but the eggs are good!…. Damn they need a couple of starters! Not promoting a trade , just stating a fact! Come on Emmit! Come on Tyler! Come on Blake! …. Really starting to “love “Andy Pages ! i see no regression here!……. Great Scott! hopefully he’s back!! Yates has looked very good too! Vesia and Banda seem to have refreshed and are pitching well!….. Saw the red sox rumors about a trade coming since they called up their top prospect. Maybe it’s just a coincidence conforto got benched? you never know! manny is my favorite padre! Yeah right. crappola!