In 2015, Clayton Kershaw’s Average Fastball velocity was 94 MPH. Even through minor injuries, he remained a dominant force, leaning on both high velocity and pinpoint command. By 2016, he was still ringing it in around 93.6 MPH, relying on that mid‑90s heat to set up his deadly off-speed arsenal. After 2016, the decline began. By 2018–2019, Kershaw’s heater had slipped into the 90–91 MPH range. At one point in 2018, about 20% of his fastballs were below 90 MPH, with over one-third of them sub‑90 MPH in 2019.
In 2018, his average speed sank to roughly 90.8 MPH, and by 2019, it bottomed out at around 90.3 MPH. Velocity loss cut into his margin for error — in‑zone fastballs became more hittable, and his HR/9 spiked to career highs. Undeterred, Kershaw pivoted. By 2020, his fastball velocity had climbed back to around 92 MPH, showcasing regained mechanics and strength.
Fast-forward to 2024, while Statcast reports a slightly higher velocity than Baseball Savant, I will deal with the reality of what I see, which is closer to Baseball Savant’s numbers than Statcast’s. Baseball Savant recorded him at 89.9 MPH in 2024, a drop from 90.7 MPH in 2023. This season, he has dropped even further to 89.1 MPH.
What Does This Mean for Kershaw?
- Less margin on fastballs – A heater once generating low‑90s becomes an “average” pitch if it only touches 90. Hitters react.
- Reliance on secondary maketh the man – With reduced speed, he leans harder on devastating off-speed pitches: slider, curve, change‑of‑pace.
- Meticulous command is critical – Every pitch location matters. He began nibbling more, avoiding riskier fastball contact.
- Adaptation defines longevity – Instead of folding, he tweaked his pitch mix, sequencing, and tempo, giving hitters fewer cues.
- Health and stamina – The dip may reflect wear and tear, but he has also incorporated intelligent training and mechanical adjustments.
Kershaw’s arm has bowed to time — a few ticks slower, a few fewer innings. But he’s extended his career by turning weakness into refinement as long as he continues to command his pitches with surgical precision, study hitters, and evolve his sequencing, that 89 MPH fastball becomes less about raw power and more about setting up angles and pace.
He’s no longer overpowering with velocity; he’s mesmerizing with intelligence. Hopefully!
That said, today is a critical start for him. This is his 5th outing. The Dodgers are flailing right about now. They are in a collective team slump, having scored just one run in the past 18 innings. If the Dodgers ever needed Clayton Kershaw to give them a shot in the arm, it is today! If he can utilize that 89 MPH fastball to set up hitters for his devastating Public Enemy Number One and his knee-buckling slider, all will be righted in Dodgerland. I think a masterful Clayton Kershaw would give the offense a huge kick-start and a shot in the arm.
However, if he continues to struggle as he has all year, this could be the beginning of the end, at least well into the end. I am rooting for the G.O.A.T.
It’s Not Outman Vs. Vargas
I still believe that a particular commenter here must be related to James Outman because, regularly, he brings him up with a compulsion rarely seen and then chides me for daring to say that I think he is a 4th or 5th outfielder… or worse. My comments about James blend stern accountability—Outman strikes out too much and can be a lineup liability—with conditional optimism—he has shown true high-leverage value when aggressive contact wins the day. I don’t know how anyone can pine for Outman when he has a career 40% strikeout rate in MLB and is at 54% this year… unless he is a relative. I have never thought or said that James Outman was a bad guy. He is a great guy. So is Joey Gallo, but neither one can hit MLB pitching. It’s delusional to think otherwise. For the love of God, can you just give it a rest? I love discussing prospects, and the Dodgers have more right now than they have in the past 20 years.
Hope, Rushing, DePaula, Sirota, and Freeland are all players who can be outstanding. Let’s enjoy watching them develop instead of beating a dead horse.
I continue to be amazed at the Arm Injuries sustained by Dodger Pitchers. Now it’s the Catman. As of today, here are the number of days lost to the IL COMBINED:
- Dodgers – 795 Days
- Astros – 390 Days
- Yankees – 330 Days
- Reds/Guardians – 195 Days
The Dodgers are far ahead in total IL impact, with nearly 800 IL-days accumulated by their pitchers, nearly double that of the next team. Why is this? There are several reasons:
1. High-Risk, High-Reward Pitching Staff
The Dodgers built a rotation loaded with injury-prone or recovering pitchers: Why? The Dodgers bet on upside — they signed or retained pitchers with elite stuff, knowing the risk of breakdowns.
2. Organizational Strategy: Build Depth, Accept Risk
LA’s front office prioritizes roster depth and workload management throughout the whole season. Their system is designed to cycle pitchers in and out of the IL to manage innings, protect long-term arms, and optimize playoff health rather than regular-season accumulation.
This means some IL stints may be precautionary or scheduled rest labeled as “inflammation” or “fatigue.”
3. Bad Luck + Attrition
Even with planning, injuries compounded early in 2025: Several pitchers went down simultaneously, putting stress on the depth. The bullpen followed suit, losing multiple high-leverage arms, forcing spot starts and heavy reliever workloads. This transformed what might have been staggered IL usage into a wave of simultaneous absences.
4. Pitching Style and Usage
Dodgers pitchers tend to emphasize velocity, spin rate, and breaking ball usage. This increases injury risk, particularly elbow and shoulder strain, over time. The same biomechanical trends that help Dodgers pitchers dominate are also what push them toward injury.
Discussion (31)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Is it just me or is Dustin May painful to watch right about now? ….. I said earlier, if Will Smith ain’t the starter in the all star game then there shouldn’t be one!……. Could Mark smell something in the wind? is Conforto’s leash getting really short?……..Mookie looks goooood! told ya! …… Teo is starting to worry me. He’s all out of wack!….. I guess Doc wants to keep Kike involved , using him to pinch hit fot Kim. Maybe it is health reasons, but it can’t be for production reasons!…. Having eggs and fried crow for breakfast! Max is still playing well! crow is a little tough, but the eggs are good!…. Damn they need a couple of starters! Not promoting a trade , just stating a fact! Come on Emmit! Come on Tyler! Come on Blake! …. Really starting to “love “Andy Pages ! i see no regression here!……. Great Scott! hopefully he’s back!! Yates has looked very good too! Vesia and Banda seem to have refreshed and are pitching well!….. Saw the red sox rumors about a trade coming since they called up their top prospect. Maybe it’s just a coincidence conforto got benched? you never know! manny is my favorite padre! Yeah right. crappola!
Snell (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
“Snell made about 10 throws off a mound over the weekend to a standing catcher, per Plunkett, and he’s now ready to take the next step in his throwing progression. The lefty hasn’t tossed from a mound since experiencing a setback in late April, so he’ll likely need to make it through at least a few side sessions before facing live hitters”.
Glasnow (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday in Los Angeles, Matthew Moreno of DodgerBlue.com reports.
“Glasnow has been moving in the right direction since it was reported at the end of May that he was experiencing general body soreness after throwing. “He’s doing really well,” stated manager Dave Roberts. “Very excited and anxious to start facing some hitters. So that’s coming too.” If all goes well during Glasnow’s side session, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him gain clearance for live BP later in the week”.
That’s why AF signed Yates and Scott.
Very pleasing win and I especially enjoyed Machado getting punched out in extras!
Not a fan of removing Kim.
I’m in shock, I never expected those fuckers to score so many runs against May!
Same old useless May…. Good job!
I’d say there are several reasons:
1. Kim is faster than Edman, so his sprint speed is better utilized in CF.
2. Edman has won an MLB GOLD GLOVE at 2B.
3. Edman has 2567 innings at 2B. Kim has 1004.
Yep.
Nice to see the best nine from the current roster.
I hope some reporter asks Roberts why Edman isn’t in CF and Kim at 2B. Edman has a lot more OF experience and Kim is still learning the position. Just curious about the rationale.
Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Matt Sauer is with the team in San Diego, per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya. The Dodgers have not named a starter for Tuesday’s game.
… and so it begins.
Conforto sits against a RHP.
9:40 PM ET
Dodgers (39-27)
Padres (37-27)
SP Dustin May R
3-4 4.09 ERA
SP Nick Pivetta R
6-2 3.16 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
SS Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
RF T. Hernandez R
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
LF Andy Pages R
2B Tommy Edman S
CF Hyeseong Kim L
66° Wind 8 mph L-R
https://x.com/JohnDenton555/status/1931848271435055317?t=H8XFs_MdilB74OrNoDdhuQ&s=19
#Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw on the #STLCards showing this Matt Adams three-run HR from the 2014 NLDS in the pregame (via @jmjones ): “I think it’s a little bush league, but I don’t expect anything less from these guys. So, it’s no worries.”
Some of the comments got me thinking about possible playoff pitching rosters.
So, looking ahead, it appears as if Treinen is already on a throwing program. He’ll be slow rolled with this recovery. Graterol has also started throwing, but he’s further off, and it’s expected he’ll be getting a rehab assignment sometime in August. Both, however, can at least be tentatively expected to be fully healthy by the time the playoffs start in October.
According to things I’ve read, Glasnow thinks he’s ready now, and the Dodgers want to, again, slow roll his rehab. I don’t have a doubt he’ll be ready by the playoffs. Not positive about Snell, but October’s a ways off, and he has time to get healthy.
My 13 man pitching staff:
Starters –
1. Glasnow
2. Yamamoto
3. Snell
4. Kershaw
High leverage right handers/1 inning or less:
5. Treinen
6. Graterol
7. Yates
8. Kopech
High leverage left handers/1 inning or less:
9. Vesia
10. Scott
Mid inning right handers/2 innings or more:
11. Casparius
12. May
Alternate starter/multi-inning reliever:
13. Sasaki
(14.) Ohtani’s likelihood of pitching also provides an additional roster spot on the pitching staff. He could start in Kershaw’s spot, and let Kershaw take over in the 4th, or with him as an additional starter, you have an extra day or rest for the starters, or you can rest the relievers by putting him in the game in the 6th or 7th inning with a comfortable lead (he retains his position in the batting order unless he’s replaced by another pitcher).
Mark. I am getting older and losing my fastball. You are older than I am.
Are you overpowering with velocity or mesmerizing with intelligence ?
MAY DAY
CODE RED
Kopech looked pretty good. Glad to have one of the dogs back!
My guess Sauer will be up pitching in one of the games against SD.
DODGER MINOR LEAGUE STANDINGS 6/92025
Oklahoma City AAA 37-26 1st place 2.5 games ahead
Tulsa AA 24-33 5th place( last place) 8 games behind
Great Lakes A+ 30-27 3rd place 8 games behind
Rancho Cucamongo A 33-24 1st place 4 games ahead
ACL Dodgers Rookie 12-15 4th place 5 game behind
For more detailed recaps,stats,schedules, daily standings and box scores for Dodger minor league teams go to the top of this page and cIick on MINOR LEAGUE AFFLIATES.
On Glasnow, I think the Dodgers believe that 100-120 innings is all they want Glasnow to throw so that he is fresh for the playoffs. They are slow-playing him because when he is right, he is devastating and they want him at the end of the season. He thinks he is fine now.
One more thing. OK, we gotta this rookie (sort of)on the team who is hitting over 400, stealing bases, playing great defense in multiple tough positions and we use him as a bench player and keep a guy in there daily whose goal is to reach the Mendoza line
Any other team would be playing him every day. Seems like not saying AF made a bad buy Iis more important than adding a much needed spark at the he top of the order. Let Kim get on base and force pitchers to pitch out of the stretch to Ohtami and Freddie. We’d be up 3-0 in the first in a third of the games.
Wow! We got our own Trump vs Musk on the site. Fortunately, still civil. Outman and Max can’t hit a slider from a good lefty, but neither can Ohtami. Freddie and Kim can.
For my 2 cents, dump Conforto, eating half the salary, for a strong prospect. Give Ward or one of the others a shot.
And get Ohtami into a few games before AS break to see how he fares. Worst case, he’s just a DH and hits 70 dingers. But if he becomes the 4/5 starter or long reliever and hits 60 if them, what an asset he would be.
Great to see Kershaw have a solid game.
Now if he can keep this up through October, the Dodgers should be fine…
Nice game by Kersh today. Won his 213th game and with the 7 Ks, he is now at 2983, just 17 away from 3000. LA needed to win to stay ahead of the Padres who beat the Brewers 1-0. Brewers selected Drew Avans off of waivers and sent him to AAA. Former Dodger prospect. Mookie’s homer was the 290th of his career. Encouraging outing by Kopech, who looked awful in the minors. Sheehan went 3 yesterday, giving up his first run. Edman and Kim drove in 5 of the 7 runs, as the bottom of the lineup did most of the damage. Freddie and Teo in slumps right now.
News from Internet:
Baseball America ranks Farm Systems ($$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-mlb-farm-system-rankings-for-all-30-teams/
Dodgers at #3. Up from 9 last year.
“Trades have thinned the Dodgers somewhat, but the top of the crop is plenty strong and only got better after landing No. 1 overall prospect Roki Sasaki…”
Dan Szymborski had a chat:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-6-5-25/
TKDC: If a team could be convinced that Bauer would change how he presents himself publicly and at least pretend to be a halfway decent person, do you think he could be signed, or is his past baggage and current talent level still make him a negative value asset?
Dan Szymborski: This is a hard question for me to ask simply because at this point, I can’t claim to have any particular insight in how a *typical* fan sees these things.
Per Eric Cross:
Dalton Rushing has been up with the Dodgers for exactly three weeks now.
He has accumulated 31 plate appearances in those three weeks.
Baseball America looks at the Dodgers IFA class ($$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/los-angeles-dodgers-2025-international-signings-review/
“After Sasaki, the top signing for the Dodgers was expected to be catcher Francisco Rivero, who had moved from Arizona to Venezuela to live and train there. Instead, Major League Baseball didn’t allow Rivero to sign… Arguably the best Latin American signing this year for the Dodgers was Adrian Torres…”
Michael Baumann looks at Ben Casparius
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/call-him-medium-leverage-ben/
“That’s because Casparius has been really good this year. Out of those 187 qualified relievers, he’s 29th in K-BB%, third in FIP, and second — SECOND — in WAR. WAR comes in such small increments that it doesn’t always (or even all that frequently) paint a comprehensive picture of reliever performance….”
Eduardo Quintero can hit the ball:
https://x.com/InfiniteDodger/status/1930828116437676353
Jay Jaffe looks at the Dodgers trading for Alexis Diaz
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-hope-to-fix-alexis-diaz-and-bolster-bullpen/
“The Dodgers will not only have to get Díaz’s delivery in working order again, but they’ll also have to counter the multiyear trends that have compromised his performance. He’s a two-pitch pitcher, with a four-seamer that’s receded from an average of 95.7 mph down to 93 this year…”
Future Dodgers on Quintero:
https://x.com/FutureDodgers/status/1931183564437016860
Quintero is in a rare class with what he’s done so far this year. In the past 20 seasons, for Low-A players in their age-19 season or younger, he’s got the 6th highest single-season wRC+ (200+ PA).
Notable observation from this list: most (15) of the first 22 players here would eventually be ranked a top ten prospect in baseball (via BA).
The others:
Quintero
Bonemer & Caldwell: 2024 draftees
Davis & Kieboom: peaked inside the top 20
Decker & Montero: made one top 100 list
Obviously, (a) it’s been two months and things can change, and (b) top ten prospect in the game ≠ major league success. But at least as it stands now, history indicates that Quintero’s value as a prospect is likely pointing straight up.
Replay officials are fucking blind.
I do not see the Dodgers adding a starting Pitcher. Why?
Look at who is allegedly coming back:
Sheehan
Snell
Glasnow
Sasaki
Gonsolin (assuming that his sore elbow is just tendinitis and not structural).
You can’t rule out Miller and Wrobleski is coming fast. What about Nick Frasso? I happen to think that Landon Knack will be a good #5 for someone.
And then, there is Ohtani!
Add all that to Yamamoto, Kershaw, and May, and where the hell are you going to put another starter?
Talking about adding another starter is just chatter… not reality. Even if the Dodgers go with a six-man rotation the second half (which I think they will), there are not enough slots.
Of course, some of you think the Dodgers will probably trade Knack, Miller, and Frasso for Skubal! 😉
They sure do Yama dirty. SUPPORT him you 9 batters!
Dodgers Starting Lineup
Shohei Ohtani, DH
Mookie Betts, SS
Freddie Freeman, 1B
Teoscar Hernandez, RF
Max Muncy, 3B
Will Smith, C
Michael Conforto, LF
Tommy Edman, 2B
Hyeseong Kim, CF
Good stuff.
Kershaw is exactly what this org needs right now: an actual pitcher who can get outs without huge velocity or wicked spin.
I’m ready for the youngsters. Freeland is next on the radar. Contact hitter with some power & speed who can play multiple positions well.
Time to get creative with relievers. Bulk, multi-inning, whatever it takes. Just have the 8 best guys up regardless of role.
Trade deadline will be fascinating. Hopefully we sell and keep the prospect larder full.
We are a first place team because of Ohtani and Freeman, Smith and Betts, Teo & Edman, Pages and Muncy. Conforto has contributed almost nothing. That can’t continue, especially with Kim bring energy to lineup.
Starting pitching is entire right now. Sheehan is next man up.
you don’t have to dislike a player to see that player is not going to be a star. in James’ case, i really like him. But just like Barnes, i usually cringe when he comes to the plate. I don’t think we can say he wasn’t given the opportunity for success. And he still may be a .260 hitter cwith 20-25 homers. BUT, he probably (my opinion). will never hit for much average. He would probably lead the league in strikeouts. And he would be a good defender in the outfield. that said, with max maybe leaving, and barnes gone, their swing and miss drops considerably. I didn’t hate Barnes, but i was never a. big fan. I do appreciate what he did for the Dodgers. Same with Max. He can be very frustrating at times both offensively and defensively. But he’s a dodger so i pull for him. Vargas? i really don’t have an opinion about him. i do hope he has success wherever he’s going. Hell for that matter, the “best” player on the planet frustrates me at times especially against lefties. But i think they should keep him!!! I, like Mark don’t dislike James. i just don’t see him as an everyday player for LA. The dodgers don’t always make the best decisions when vit comes to who to keep and who to ship out. (Pedro,Piazza, etc.) But AF usually gets it right. …. That was such an injustice yesterday for Yamamoto! The guy should be 9-2 and the leader for cy young in the national league! …. Well iread Glasnow says he’s ready, but doc says he’s not. no matter who’s right, it’s great news to see Tyler ain’t quitting on the season!! …. Blake Snell ? hopefully soon! Same for Emmit! …. i just traded for Duran! i haven’t told anyone yet, but Dalton is not in the deal!