Is there more left in the tank?
In 2015, Clayton Kershaw’s Average Fastball velocity was 94 MPH. Even through minor injuries, he remained a dominant force, leaning on both high velocity and pinpoint command. By 2016, he was still ringing it in around 93.6 MPH, relying on that mid‑90s heat to set up his deadly…
In 2015, Clayton Kershaw’s Average Fastball velocity was 94 MPH. Even through minor injuries, he remained a dominant force, leaning on both high velocity and pinpoint command. By 2016, he was still ringing it in around 93.6 MPH, relying on that mid‑90s heat to set up his deadly off-speed arsenal. After 2016, the decline began. By 2018–2019, Kershaw’s heater had slipped into the 90–91 MPH range. At one point in 2018, about 20% of his fastballs were below 90 MPH, with over one-third of them sub‑90 MPH in 2019.
In 2018, his average speed sank to roughly 90.8 MPH, and by 2019, it bottomed out at around 90.3 MPH. Velocity loss cut into his margin for error — in‑zone fastballs became more hittable, and his HR/9 spiked to career highs. Undeterred, Kershaw pivoted. By 2020, his fastball velocity had climbed back to around 92 MPH, showcasing regained mechanics and strength.
Fast-forward to 2024, while Statcast reports a slightly higher velocity than Baseball Savant, I will deal with the reality of what I see, which is closer to Baseball Savant’s numbers than Statcast’s. Baseball Savant recorded him at 89.9 MPH in 2024, a drop from 90.7 MPH in 2023. This season, he has dropped even further to 89.1 MPH.
What Does This Mean for Kershaw?
- Less margin on fastballs – A heater once generating low‑90s becomes an “average” pitch if it only touches 90. Hitters react.
- Reliance on secondary maketh the man – With reduced speed, he leans harder on devastating off-speed pitches: slider, curve, change‑of‑pace.
- Meticulous command is critical – Every pitch location matters. He began nibbling more, avoiding riskier fastball contact.
- Adaptation defines longevity – Instead of folding, he tweaked his pitch mix, sequencing, and tempo, giving hitters fewer cues.
- Health and stamina – The dip may reflect wear and tear, but he has also incorporated intelligent training and mechanical adjustments.
Kershaw’s arm has bowed to time — a few ticks slower, a few fewer innings. But he’s extended his career by turning weakness into refinement as long as he continues to command his pitches with surgical precision, study hitters, and evolve his sequencing, that 89 MPH fastball becomes less about raw power and more about setting up angles and pace.
He’s no longer overpowering with velocity; he’s mesmerizing with intelligence. Hopefully!
That said, today is a critical start for him. This is his 5th outing. The Dodgers are flailing right about now. They are in a collective team slump, having scored just one run in the past 18 innings. If the Dodgers ever needed Clayton Kershaw to give them a shot in the arm, it is today! If he can utilize that 89 MPH fastball to set up hitters for his devastating Public Enemy Number One and his knee-buckling slider, all will be righted in Dodgerland. I think a masterful Clayton Kershaw would give the offense a huge kick-start and a shot in the arm.
However, if he continues to struggle as he has all year, this could be the beginning of the end, at least well into the end. I am rooting for the G.O.A.T.
It’s Not Outman Vs. Vargas
I still believe that a particular commenter here must be related to James Outman because, regularly, he brings him up with a compulsion rarely seen and then chides me for daring to say that I think he is a 4th or 5th outfielder… or worse. My comments about James blend stern accountability—Outman strikes out too much and can be a lineup liability—with conditional optimism—he has shown true high-leverage value when aggressive contact wins the day. I don’t know how anyone can pine for Outman when he has a career 40% strikeout rate in MLB and is at 54% this year… unless he is a relative. I have never thought or said that James Outman was a bad guy. He is a great guy. So is Joey Gallo, but neither one can hit MLB pitching. It’s delusional to think otherwise. For the love of God, can you just give it a rest? I love discussing prospects, and the Dodgers have more right now than they have in the past 20 years.
Hope, Rushing, DePaula, Sirota, and Freeland are all players who can be outstanding. Let’s enjoy watching them develop instead of beating a dead horse.
I continue to be amazed at the Arm Injuries sustained by Dodger Pitchers. Now it’s the Catman. As of today, here are the number of days lost to the IL COMBINED:
- Dodgers – 795 Days
- Astros – 390 Days
- Yankees – 330 Days
- Reds/Guardians – 195 Days
The Dodgers are far ahead in total IL impact, with nearly 800 IL-days accumulated by their pitchers, nearly double that of the next team. Why is this? There are several reasons:
1. High-Risk, High-Reward Pitching Staff
The Dodgers built a rotation loaded with injury-prone or recovering pitchers: Why? The Dodgers bet on upside — they signed or retained pitchers with elite stuff, knowing the risk of breakdowns.
2. Organizational Strategy: Build Depth, Accept Risk
LA’s front office prioritizes roster depth and workload management throughout the whole season. Their system is designed to cycle pitchers in and out of the IL to manage innings, protect long-term arms, and optimize playoff health rather than regular-season accumulation.
This means some IL stints may be precautionary or scheduled rest labeled as “inflammation” or “fatigue.”
3. Bad Luck + Attrition
Even with planning, injuries compounded early in 2025: Several pitchers went down simultaneously, putting stress on the depth. The bullpen followed suit, losing multiple high-leverage arms, forcing spot starts and heavy reliever workloads. This transformed what might have been staggered IL usage into a wave of simultaneous absences.
4. Pitching Style and Usage
Dodgers pitchers tend to emphasize velocity, spin rate, and breaking ball usage. This increases injury risk, particularly elbow and shoulder strain, over time. The same biomechanical trends that help Dodgers pitchers dominate are also what push them toward injury.
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Discussion (58)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Replay officials are fucking blind.
I do not see the Dodgers adding a starting Pitcher. Why?
Look at who is allegedly coming back:
Sheehan
Snell
Glasnow
Sasaki
Gonsolin (assuming that his sore elbow is just tendinitis and not structural).
You can’t rule out Miller and Wrobleski is coming fast. What about Nick Frasso? I happen to think that Landon Knack will be a good #5 for someone.
And then, there is Ohtani!
Add all that to Yamamoto, Kershaw, and May, and where the hell are you going to put another starter?
Talking about adding another starter is just chatter… not reality. Even if the Dodgers go with a six-man rotation the second half (which I think they will), there are not enough slots.
Of course, some of you think the Dodgers will probably trade Knack, Miller, and Frasso for Skubal! 😉
They sure do Yama dirty. SUPPORT him you 9 batters!
Dodgers Starting Lineup
Shohei Ohtani, DH
Mookie Betts, SS
Freddie Freeman, 1B
Teoscar Hernandez, RF
Max Muncy, 3B
Will Smith, C
Michael Conforto, LF
Tommy Edman, 2B
Hyeseong Kim, CF
Good stuff.
Kershaw is exactly what this org needs right now: an actual pitcher who can get outs without huge velocity or wicked spin.
I’m ready for the youngsters. Freeland is next on the radar. Contact hitter with some power & speed who can play multiple positions well.
Time to get creative with relievers. Bulk, multi-inning, whatever it takes. Just have the 8 best guys up regardless of role.
Trade deadline will be fascinating. Hopefully we sell and keep the prospect larder full.
We are a first place team because of Ohtani and Freeman, Smith and Betts, Teo & Edman, Pages and Muncy. Conforto has contributed almost nothing. That can’t continue, especially with Kim bring energy to lineup.
Starting pitching is entire right now. Sheehan is next man up.
you don’t have to dislike a player to see that player is not going to be a star. in James’ case, i really like him. But just like Barnes, i usually cringe when he comes to the plate. I don’t think we can say he wasn’t given the opportunity for success. And he still may be a .260 hitter cwith 20-25 homers. BUT, he probably (my opinion). will never hit for much average. He would probably lead the league in strikeouts. And he would be a good defender in the outfield. that said, with max maybe leaving, and barnes gone, their swing and miss drops considerably. I didn’t hate Barnes, but i was never a. big fan. I do appreciate what he did for the Dodgers. Same with Max. He can be very frustrating at times both offensively and defensively. But he’s a dodger so i pull for him. Vargas? i really don’t have an opinion about him. i do hope he has success wherever he’s going. Hell for that matter, the “best” player on the planet frustrates me at times especially against lefties. But i think they should keep him!!! I, like Mark don’t dislike James. i just don’t see him as an everyday player for LA. The dodgers don’t always make the best decisions when vit comes to who to keep and who to ship out. (Pedro,Piazza, etc.) But AF usually gets it right. …. That was such an injustice yesterday for Yamamoto! The guy should be 9-2 and the leader for cy young in the national league! …. Well iread Glasnow says he’s ready, but doc says he’s not. no matter who’s right, it’s great news to see Tyler ain’t quitting on the season!! …. Blake Snell ? hopefully soon! Same for Emmit! …. i just traded for Duran! i haven’t told anyone yet, but Dalton is not in the deal!