Nolan Arenado, the former All-Star and Gold Glove Cardinal third-baseman, blocked a trade to Houston yesterday. There is evidently a list of teams to which he would accept a trade and the Dodgers are on the list. Before we say anything, let’s consider that from 2015 through 2019, Nolan hit an average of 39.8 HR’s a year and had an average OPS of .937. Them there are superstar numbers!
He tapered off in 2020 with an OPS of .738 and them in 2021, he was traded to St. Louis where he had two good seasons with an OPS of .807 and .891. In 2023 he dropped to a .774 OPS and then OPS’ed .719 last season. I have wondered if maybe the Dodgers could get him at good price and platoon him with Max Muncy. So, I started looking at the stats and especially, his splits. For his career, he has killed LHP to the tune of a .297 BA and a .928 OPS. He averaged a HR every 15.8 ABs against LHP, while averaging a HR evey 20 ABs against RHP. His OPS against RHP for his career is .834.
However, something happend to Nolan in 2022: He started hitting RHP much better than LHP. In 2022, he hit .303 against RHP and .250 against LHP. It continued in 2023, when he hit .280 against RHP and .220 against LHP. He averaged a HR every 26 ABs against LHP that year. Last season, he hit .284 against RHP and .235 against lefties. He averaged a HR every 29 ABs against LHP and a HR every 43 AB’s against RHP. Frankly, he’s become a “Punch & Judy” Hitter.
Max Muncy has a career OPS of .826 and in fact, OPS’ed .852 last season. Max struggled against LHP, hitting .172 last year. For his career, he is a .222 hitter against LHP (.230 against RHP) but his OPS is over .800 on both sides. He averages a HR every 14 AB against LHP and a HR every 16 ABs against RHP. Unless, the Dodgers believe they can “Fix” Nolan Arenado, he is not a fit and is a player in steep decline, both offensively and defensively. Give me Max Muncy every day of the week and a twice for the doubleheader on Sunday.
Nuff said!
Roki Sasaki News
MLB.com did a survey of GM’s as to where Roki Sasaki would land and so far the voting is like this:
11- Dodgers
7- Padres
Why Mookie is Leaving the Outfield
On Dodgers.com, Mike Petriello wrote this:
Betts, who turned 32 in October, is no longer the reliable 20-to-30-steal player he was when he was younger. He’s no longer got elite or even average wheels, as the sprint speed that once ranked among the game’s best has declined to just the 31st percentile, continuing a years-long slide.
–Mike Petriello
But as Statcast rolls out more new baserunning metrics for base stealers, we’re happy to report that in this particular case, the data and the eye test match exquisitely: No one takes leads like Mookie Betts does. Repeatedly, and consistently, for years. He is the best.
It’s a great read, but since Mookies’ speed has dropped, it makes sense to move him to the infield and if he prefers SS… well, he earned it!
Dodger Farm System
There is a very good overview of the Dodger Farm System at LA Dodger Chronicles. Jeff Dominique spent a year of his life preparing this (I’m joking). HERE IS THE LINK
Discussion (14)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Diamondbacks and Guardians trade:
The D-Backs are sending right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance round B selection to the Guardians for Josh Naylor.
More pertinent is this article ($$$) from Rosenthal saying Dodgers are exploring alternatives if they can’t find a common price for Teo:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6011626/2024/12/21/dodgers-teoscar-hernandez-alternatives/
Probably just a negotiation press release, but…
Two of my favorites, and then one of the boards favorites:
Ha-Seong Kim, Suzuki and Luis Robert.
It’s important, for me, to note that the return for a Robert Jr. trade is:
“For Robert, the White Sox do not expect to receive multiple top prospects, but would want a “meaningful piece” in return, a source said.” That’s got AF written all over it.
Baseball Hall of Famer and stolen base king Rickey Henderson has passed away. He was 65. Henderson’s friend and teammate Dave Winfield was among those to announce the tragic news, which was later confirmed by the New York Post.
“For the fourth of what is expected to be several seasons in a row, the Dodgers were competitive balance tax payers. Their bill for 2024 came to $103 million, per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press.
The Dodgers payroll for competitive balance tax purposes this season was just over $353 million, again per Associated Press, which exceeded the fourth and highest threshold for 2024. The first threshold this season was $237 million, with each successive tier in increments $20 million higher, with higher tax rates at each level.
In 2023, the Dodgers had a CBT payroll of $268.2 million and paid a tax of $19.4 million.
As a repeat tax payer for at least three years in a row, the Dodgers were subject to the highest tax rates allowable by the collective bargaining – 50 percent for their first $20 million over the first threshold, 62 percent for the next $20 million, 95 percent for the next $20 million, then 110 percent of anything over $297 million”.
“The Los Angeles Dodgers have made another move on Friday, signing right-handed pitcher Julian Fernández to a minor league deal, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. The move includes a non-roster invite to big league spring training.
Fernández, 29, has limited major league experience. In 2021, he made six appearances with the Colorado Rockies, allowing eight earned runs across 6.2 innings pitched for a 10.80 ERA.
Most recently in Major League Baseball, Fernández was in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. In 2023 for the team’s Triple-A affiliate, he had a 10.61 ERA across seven appearances.
Fernández spent the 2024 season in the Mexican League and the Dominican Winter League. In 34 appearances in the Mexican League for El Aguila de Veracruz, he had a 1.82 ERA across 34.2 innings pitched. The Dodgers were clearly impressed enough to give him an opportunity on a minor league pact”.
And then there is this:
It’s hard to keep a good cockroach down!
Thank you Mark for the shout out. I am having my stitches removed from the emergency surgery I had on my ankle.
Earlier this year, Ford officially revealed the performance numbers of its all-new 2025 Mustang GTD, and our suspicions were finally validated: The Mustang GTD sets a new performance bar for the Blue Oval brand with an adrenaline-pumping 815 horsepower and 664 pound-feet of torque. It tops out at 202 miles-per-hour, making it the most powerful street-legal Mustang ever produced in Ford’s history. It is, indeed, an 800-plus horsepower street-legal track monster.
Ford kept its promise and was the first domestic automaker to break the 7-minute barrier, something we assumed already happened as soon as the teaser video was released, but now we have the footage and the numbers. The Ford Mustang GTD lapped the Nürburgring in 6 minutes, 57 seconds, and change.
Ford received over 7,500 applicants for the $325,000 Ford Mustang GTD… Sadly. I am destined to drive my Mustang Dark Horse. Check out the GTD:
Back to Dodger Baseball!
Banda’s batting average against was .238. He’s a Bulk Guy, not a High-Leverege Guy and he’s LH. He came to the Dodgers May 19th and put up 49 innings. The Dodgers don’t have many LHP in the bullpen. Wrobleski or Dreyer could push him. The best man will win.
Tanner Scott would be nice, but AF does not like to pony up 5-year deals to relievers.
I really hope we replace Banda. He’s never pitched very good until last year. He’s been a punching bag in the minors and majors until he got some lucky breaks. I think his batting average against was .267. Not good. If he makes the staff outta spring training my guess is he’ll be gone by the all star break after getting hit hard. I hope we can afford Tanner Scott instead. If we don’t sign Teo, I’d be happy with Santander. We have got an over abundance of starting pitchers and sorting through who makes it and who gets sent down is a big head scratcher…. especially and hopefully if Sasaki is signed. What happens with Miller, Knack, Wrobleski, Henriquez and Casparius… who all contributed. Jack Dryer, who was added to the 40 man roster really has some great MiLB numbers… plus he’s left handed. For whatever reason, I feel better with Mookie at second and giving young Freeland a chance at SS. Still hoping Rushing gets a chance too. We have soooooo much talent…
At one time i wanted Nolan A. really bad! Now might be the time to let go. Max ain’t Michael Jack Schmidt, but he will be ok, just not at 2nd. He’s not great at 3rd, but his limited range at 2nd won’t do. With Mookie at ss, left side could be an adventure at times. …… Is Teo pushing off his choice as long as it takes for him to remain a dodger? Pretty sure he can get what he’s looking for elsewhere if that’s what he really wants. His uniform needs to say Dodgers on the front! …. Look for Bellinger to put up good numbers in Yankee stadium. I say 30 plus homers and defense that Soto could never play! … Hope Buehler signs with Baltimore. Gonna miss him! … Kike or Kim? gotta get one of them!…. Tanner Scott? Heck yeah! With Vesia and Banda, that’s what i’m talking about! Happy Holidays everyone! Be safe. Be happy. Be kind. Be well. and always, be a dodger fan!
Thanks Mark for Arenado article. I would be down with trading Lux , moving Muncy to second and bringing Arenado in. I think he would be revitalized in this lineup , playing at home. Hoping things pickup in next days before Christmas. . Merry Christmas to all !!
Nice to see you finally embracing Insta Mark!!
I read the Arenando stuff with interest.
He’s definitely angling for a move to the Dodgers. No question.
I think Max is a big personality and team
leader – as was shown in Mookie’s video – it appeared it was him and Mooks who rallied the troops in the Post Season.
He has more value than just numbers.
Betts is not old at 32.
No, the Dodgers don’t need Arenado.
It would be nice to sign Tanner Scott.
It’s a waiting game for Teo. Friedman has far more patience than me.
Maybe the Dodgers really don’t want to sign him to a big contract. This is all show for the fans who want him back. Conforto, plus Pages and Dalton Rushing will move into key roles.
Friedman has already talked about how an outfield without Hernandez would look.
It would be nice if the Dodgers had an understanding of what Roki Sasaki will do. Maybe they do.
But if he chooses to go elsewhere, it would be nice to pivot. Maybe Walker Buehler. Then again, Friedman didn’t make an offer. Of course, LA has pitchers available to step up.
Won’t be surprised if the Dodgers announce a couple of signings prior to Christmas.
I, like many here, disagreed with the idea of Betts being moved to SS, but after reading this, I think I see things differently now and I think it’s the best option. I like it!
Regarding Arenado, I prefer him over Taylor, but I doubt he will accept being a bench player.