Back in the ’80s, Huey Lewis had a great tune by that title. If this is it, please let me know, if this ain’t love babe just say so. Well since their season is now over, we can ask the same thing about some of the Dodger players. Is this it for them? Are they playing elsewhere next season? Some of the answers are easy. Others, not so much.
According to Sportrac, the Dodgers have 19 players who are free agents. Some are at the minor league level and have already declared free agency. None of these guys in my opinion would have been brought back anyway. Kickham, Quackenbush, Feliz, and Meisinger. Morrow, Tropeano, and Souza will no doubt do the same soon.
Duffy and Hamels will most likely try to get new deals elsewhere. Joe Kelly is the only player with a club option. It is for 12 million. I doubt they exercise the option. Most likely, he gets a buyout. The Bauer problem remains until MLB decides if they are going to suspend him for a year or not.
Knebel is a likely candidate to get a new deal. Nelson with his injury history might not. That brings us to the elephants in the room. Scherzer, Jansen, Seager, Kersh, and Taylor. Scherzer cannot be given a QO since he was traded mid-season. With the QO being 18.4, It seems unlikely any of their free agents would accept it.
Seager and Taylor are going to get big raises. Kersh will probably get an offer, but no more than two years, and certainly not for the 30 mil he got last season. Jansen revived his career with his stellar performance after the debacle in July. Someone is going to pay the man.
Scherzer will probably get a front-loaded 3-year deal. Will the Dodgers do it? Maybe. Then again they may see fit to let both Scherzer and Kersh walk and choose to go with their kids. Another option is to go with a lower-tier free agent pickup or two like the Giants did and give the kids another year of development.
That being said, the team is definitely going to have a different look next season. Most of it in the pen and on the bench. The safest guys on the roster are Smith, Bellinger, Lux, both Turners, Pollock, and of course, Betts. I would think everyone else is either trade bait, or possibly non tendered.
The Giants more than proved you can get a lot of production out of players on one-year deals. The Giants will have to almost totally rebuild their roster again.
As much as I enjoyed watching Pujols this season, he has way too many holes in his game to be brought back. I think he will return to St. Louis if possible for his swan song season.
The other elephant in the room is the new CBA. A lot depends on the changes in rules and other changes such as lowering the tax threshold. I do not think that will get the approval of the players union though.
So, let us look at who might be back, and who won’t. Seager is most likely moving on. As much as I would love to see him stay a Dodger, his replacement for next season at least is already here. Seags might have cost himself some cash with a mediocre postseason, but he still is in for a 200 mil plus multi-year deal.
Taylor could stay, but I just do not think LA is going to pony up the 12 mil or more a year deal he will most likely get for at least 4 years if not more. It is possible he gives the Dodgers a hometown discount. But I would not count on it.
Kershaw might want to end his career as a Dodger. Then again it is highly possible he might want to play closer to home, therefore signing with the Rangers has been mentioned by the media numerous times. I for one do not think that is viable since Kersh has a huge desire to win and the Rangers are a long way from competing for a title in that division.
Jansen will also merit at least a 2-year deal with an option. I have serious doubts, will all the other options for a cheaper price out there that the Dodgers will give Kenley another big payday. Graterol is a closer in waiting.
That brings us to Mad Max. I honestly believe that they will make some sort of multi-year offer to him. Whether he takes it or not is the question. I would like to see what he could do in a full season with LA. He would not only be a force, but just his work ethic and competitive drive would rub off on the rest of the staff.
I think the entire bench is expendable. Even Barnes. They will most likely give McKinstry another shot in spring training. Rios should be back and healthy. Neuse will get another look. Reks and Raley, well I think both of those guys are gone.
So now the waiting game begins. The Winter Meetings will be interesting, to say the least. But it might be February before we know what direction AF is going to go. It has been that way the last several years. I see no signs of it changing soon.
Discussion (17)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Hey Houston, do you think maybe Atlanta might of been cheating? Well if they actually did do you think they deserve a pass? Well I think they’d deserve a whole new award. Hope you get your asses handed to you the next three games!!! Gooooo Braves!!!!
Manfred said he has no problem with the Tomahawk chop. Well, several Native American tribes do. And they voiced that tonight. Not so much about the Braves name, but they think the chop is racist. Cleveland forced to change their name, DC football team forced to change theirs also. It only stands to reason that at one time or another, some vitriol was going to be aimed at the Braves.
Atlanta 6 – Astericks 2. It would give me some satisfaction for Houston to lose the WS.
Rosario is a one-man show enjoying the Braves beating the Ass..strows,down. Two hits and an outfield assist so far the man’s unconscious
Padres interviewed Ozzie Guillen for their managerial opening. Hasn’t that guy been out of the game for about 10 years?
I think everyone should do a little research to see if there is precedent with your predictions regarding Bauer. I just want to point out that 4 of the last five players that were suspended for Domestic Violence all returned and played for the same team they were on when they were suspended. None of them are as good as Bauer and the one that didn’t was a free agent so there was no team to return to and he’s not eligible to return until next year. All of them were on big name teams including our own Julio Urias.
Many on this site were demanding that Urias be traded just like you all are right now with respect to Bauer. In fact, you’re all probably the same people and you all loved Urias when he recorded that final out next year. None of you have heard Bauer’s side of the story yet and none of you know what the Font Office is going to do.
For those of you that know there will be protests, there weren’t any at Yankees stadium for Aroldis or at any other stadium that I can find on the Internet.
DodgerLover,
I deleted your post.
You know which one.
Keep it up and I will Cancel You!
Your choice.
You can be civil or not!
If not, you can’t stay here.
You have been kicked outta’ here under about a dozen other names. I just figured out who you are!
I wanted thank Mark and every other writer here for the work they have put in. This is the only Dodger content I really follow.
My final thoughts on how we exited the season:
I feel strangely at peace with it. I had a conversation over a beer on Sunday with another lifelong Dodger fan. He said something that really resonated. To paraphrase: “Would we have rather have gone home after losing to the Braves or losing to the Astros? Because we are beat up like the team has never been beat up before. And the Astros are on fire.”
I never thought I’d actually agree with a statement like that. But I do. Probably only this one time in my life. It’s defeatist, and that’s not my nature. However, I don’t believe we could have beaten the Astros as our team stands today. If your ship is adrift, taking on water, listing to port, half the crew has already abandoned ship and the enemy is quickly approaching; you scuttle the ship to deny your enemy the prize.
I’m not saying the Dodgers didn’t fight to the end. They did. But I would rather go home after the NLCS than give the Astros the opportunity to take down a decimated Dodgers team and celebrate another WS Championship on our field. The thought turns my stomach.
Sometimes it’s better to deny the enemy the prize.
I can live with how this ended.
To the offseason.
For all of you who think it’s a foregone conclusion that Bauer will be on another team next year, remember how much crow you ate this year when you said.
Belli should be traded
Turner is a great defensive shortstop
The bullpen sucks
Trade Pollock
Verdugo is better than Betts
Barnes is the superior defensive catcher.
As far as the Bauer vs Schmidt / Jones contracts go. Bauer was great for every single start except one. Schmidt and Jones sucked the entire time for multiple years. Bauer is not even in the same conversation.
If Seager leaves the Dodgers I would trade for Matt Chapman to play third. Chapman would give the Dodgers 2 years, 2022 and 2023 before becoming a free agent. I would offer Trea Turner who would give the Dodgers one year, 2022 before becoming a free agent.
I would then make Lux the shortstop and Betts at second.
Anybody else that would have to be involved in this trade is up to Friedman.
If Seager stays, I still make the trade but keep Seager at short and put Lux at second.
From Dodgers Nation:
Upcoming negotiation issues:
1. Young players getting underpaid
2. Older players getting pushed out for cheaper young players
3. Service time manipulation
Ultimately, the management teams in baseball have found many ways to manipulate the payroll and service time. Let’s hope and pray that an agreement can be hammered out. Some things to expect if/when they come to an agreement:
1. Post-season changes – more teams
2. The designated hitter in the National League
3. More changes to the luxury tax
—————
Players with one year remaining on contracts:
Trea Turner
Austin Barnes
Blake Treinen
Tommy Kahnle
AJ Pollock
In-house replacements for 2023.
Bobby Miller
Miguel Vargas
Ryan Pepiot
Diego Cartaya
Michael Busch
Andy Pages
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Defense (Still) Matters
According to FanGraphs, here’s how the Dodgers defensive players ranked at their position with a minimum of 300 innings played:
C – Will Smith – 14th out of 60
C – Austin Barnes – 23rd out of 60
1B – Max Muncy – 18th out of 44
1B – Albert Pujols – 22nd out of 44
2B – Trea Turner – 19th out of 40
SS – Trea Turner – 14th out of 41
SS – Corey Seager – 35th out of 41
SS – Gavin Lux – 37th out of 41
3B – Justin Turner – 30th out of 47
LF – AJ Pollock – 36th out of 45
CF – Cody Bellinger – 15th out of 47
CF – Chris Taylor – 42nd out of 47
RF – Billy McKinney – 6th out of 46
RF – Mookie Betts – 19th out of 46
As a team, the Dodgers were 25th out of the 30 teams on defense. Overall, the bad defense causes more free outs to be given away and the pitchers have to throw more pitches. That is at least three years of the Dodgers being mediocre to bad on defense. For a team that tries to be efficient in getting outs, this defensive performance will continue to be a problem. Something needs to change.
With each passing day, it becomes less likely that the DA will charge Bauer. If they don’t, how is this going to shake out? In the legal world, they say “assuming facts not in evidence.” I think there is a lot of ground to cover.
@dodgerlover
Apologies, but I missed your comment/question yesterday.
I think the Bauer process, from my POV at least, is evaluating the opportunity high-quality pitchers on short-term contracts > the more readily available middle of the road pitchers on more variable contracts.
If the Dodgers are serious about going after a title again in 2022 and all sentimental emotions left out here is what they have to do:
Close the chapter Clayton Kershaw. Yes, it is hard to do and I will be sorry to see him go but for the teams chances to be successful I really believe you can not count any more on Clayton. Too many injuries, too much time on IL and his fastball is just no longer good enough. I do not think his on field worth is more than 8-10 million a year as a Nr. 5 starter at best. Since you do not low ball a player like him it probably is best to cut ties.
About the same feeling on Kenley. Yes, he turned it around the second half of the season but I do not see him in a Dodgers uni next season. I would go with Treinen as the closer. I have a lot more faith when he comes into a ballgame then I have with Kenley.
Use the money saved on both Max and Corey.
Would use the club option on Kelly for 12 m and bring back Knebel.
Max, Walker, Julio, TG plus a free agent inning eater would be a fine rotation . And when Dustin returns in July,
August we would have another ace in the making to step in. White, Jackson and Price (if we can not trade him) provide depth and Bobby Miller is waiting in the wings too.
Pen could be Treinen, Graterol, Kahnle, Knebel,Kelly, Vesia, Bruihl, Ferguson, Phillps (who was a revelation late in the season.
Make CT3 a qualyfinge offer and cash in the draft pick if he declines.
Try to trade AJ for prospects.
Would sign Duvall to provide the right hand power we need.
Lineup:
Turner,ss
Corey, 3b (if he gets his longterm contract I think he is willing to move to 3b)
Mookie, rf
Muncy, 1b
Duvall, rf
Bellinger, cf
Smith, c
Lux, 2b
JT, DH
Bench: Barnes, Rios, McKinstry plus 2 free agents contact hitters.
From a money point this is very doable because a lot of money comes off the books this offseason (especially if we get that Trevor Bauer money off our cap sheet) and again next year.
Looking at the state of the competition in our own division, as well as the others in the NL, I would imagine that the Dodgers are all in again this offseason.
I think their biggest threat in the NL next year will be the Braves, but they have some problems of their own. Freddie Freeman will need to get paid and Smyly, Soler, Rosario, Pederson and Duvall are all free agents. They do have an entire outfield on the IL, and Freeman will have to get paid. Then they’ll have to dish out a lot of cash in arbitration for Fried, Acuna, Swanson, Albies and others.
Within the division, you would think that the Padres and Giants will be big trouble again.
It was recently said that the Padres have a ton of pitching and McKenzie Gore is just about ready to contribute. The problem is that most of their pitching isn’t very good. I would imagine that Snell will bounce back to some extent, but his injury at the end of the year could be troublesome. Yu Darvish is somewhat of a trainwreck ever since the sticky was banned. He could be the one pitcher most affected by the sticky ban. Sorry, but Gore also looks like a trainwreck and doesn’t look ready at all. Lamet hasn’t been very good so they will mostly be the same team they were this year except they’re right up against the spending wall and will have to deal with the loss of Pham and possible some others with options such as Melancon, Kela, Profar and Marisnick. Not to mention the two elephants in the room, Hosmer’s clubhouse hatred and Tatis’ shoulder.
The Giants are in a completely different situation. They’ll have a ton of room under the fake cap and will return most of their position players. Unfortunately, most of their position players are very old and Crawford, Posey and Longo aren’t likely to repeat career years just like Hosmer and Myers couldn’t this year with the Padres. I would think the Giants move on from Cueto, so they’ll have to replace their entire rotation with the exception of Brandon Webb. At least they have a good cornerstone to build around. But, there’s no way Farhan is going to be able to hit the jackpot two years in a row while filling out the rotation with unrealized talent. Bryant, Belt and Solano are key position players that will move on and/or need to be replaced. Another handful of bullpen pieces will also need to be accounted for. They’ll have around $145M under the cap and will need to spend that to cover holes vacated by their entire pitching staff and a couple of key position players.
One commenter said their “Farm system is top notch” which I don’t entirely agree with. Most of their top 10 list are all A ball players with the exception of Joey Bart. No one is going to help much next year and they’re ranked 11th overall. Their tippy top prospects is SS Marco Luciano a 20 year old shortstop just a couple of months older than our own SS prospect Eddys Leonard. Both started at low A and made it to A+ this year. While Luciano has better grades for his tools, it was Eddys Leonard who was superior on the field pretty much across the board. Leonard was 296/390/539/929 vs Luciano’s 258/344/471/815. Luciano checks in at No 1 for them as Leonard checks in at 18 with us. After Bart and Ramos, all of their top ten prospects are at A+ ball or lower. Our top 10 features 7 players at AA or higher.
It sure looks like our roster has less holes and more prospects that are likely to contribute than our competition. I’m sure AF sees this and will act accordingly. Our window is still wide open as we wait for the next wave of position players to reach the MLB roster.
I believe our minor league system is underrated compared to other teams. We constantly draft with one hand tied behind our back because of our draft position. Due to the lower picks, I think our prospects start with lower ratings which leads to the lower system rankings. Those two shortstops are good example.
I think Jansen would accept the QO.
From the AFL Website:
Jeter Downs continued his power binge to start the Fall League season by crushing his first grand slam — and fifth homer overall — of his six-game campaign in Arizona. The 23-year-old’s blast came in the bottom of the eighth inning of Scottsdale’s eventual 7-6 loss. After going 1-for-2 with a single in his first AFL game on Oct. 14, Downs has homered in five straight, a total that is already over a third of the 14 he belted during the regular season for Triple-A Worcester. Over 99 games at Triple-A, Downs delivered nine doubles, but the infielder’s overall slash line sat at just .190/.272/.333.