I Refuse To Yield To No Team

All off-season I have hoped the Dodgers would go BOLD.  Of course I was disappointed.  I thought this would be the year.  But unlike some here, I am not about to concede the WS to NYY (or LAA) this year or any time in the future.  NYY CBT is already at $245,341,667 with holes still to fill.  $2.5MM more in spending and they exceed the top penalty.  The tax is one thing (they can afford it), but they will also lose 10 spots in their Round 1 draft in 2021.

They are still expected to sign Brett Gardner to play CF.  They will not be comfortable going into the season with Aaron Hicks as their CF.  Neither Frazier or Tauchman are CF.

Gleyber Torres is a 2B, not a SS.  He can play SS, but he is a 2B playing SS, because Didi will now be playing for Philly.

Can Gio Urshela duplicate last year?  He never has before.  Maybe he is a late-bloomer, but maybe 2019 was an aberration. 

Can DJLM duplicate last year?  I like DJLM, but it will be extremely difficult for him to duplicate what he did in 2019.

Their backup catcher makes Austin Barnes look like JT Realmuto.  Kyle Higashioka will be 30.  He is a AAAA player who has bounced up and down for the last three years.  In 146 AB, his career stats are .164/.212/.336/.547. He is the only other catcher on the 40 man.

Who is going to play 1B; Luke Voit or Miguel Andujar?  NYY is not comfortable with either one at 1B, which is why DJLM was playing 1B at the end of the year when Didi came back.

Giancarlo Stanton is a DH playing LF.  I am not going to downgrade his impact with the bat.  He can hit 50 HRs, but he will also K 200 times.

Starting Pitchers – Cole, Severino, Tanaka, Paxton, German (??) – Happ, Montgomery, Loaisiga.  If I am AF or Doc, that does not scare me.   I guess it does a lot of you.

Severino – Has rotator cuff problems that kept him out all 2019.  What is the likelihood he will get back to Ace status?

Tanaka – His arm has to be falling off.  He pitched 7 years in Japan before coming to the US.  1,315 IP in those 7 years.  In his 6 years with NYY, he has pitched an additional 1,006 innings.  His metrics continue to drop. 

German – I am not sure when his Administrative Leave for Domestic Violence is complete.  He was out 6 games for the regular season, and all 9 playoff games.  There will undoubtedly be additional games in his suspension, but it is unknown how many.  He may have been 18-4, but his ERA was north of 4.00.  He was never an 18-4 pitcher before 2019.

Happ – They are trying to unload Happ and his $17MM contract.  So far, no takers.  If any MLB team trades for Happ they better get Deivi Garcia also in return.  Why would any MLB team do NYY a favor by taking that contract off their books?

In 2021 – They will be losing $85.25MM in contracts, leaving them initially $74.783MM shy of the 2021 CBT threshold.  That will be spent.  Considering that the 8 players with arbitration in 2020 are projected to make $21.35MM in 2020, it is realistic to anticipate that those 8 players could make 150% of that amount or $32MM in 2021.    There will be 6 more in arbitration for the first time including Gleyber Torres, Domingo German, and Luke Voit.  Let’s project them to be at $10MM.  That will leave NYY about $33MM to replace two starting pitchers (Tanaka and Paxton), DJLM, and still needing a SS, CF, and backup catcher.

Many are already projecting that Aaron Judge will not be signed by NYY once he hits FA.   No financial room, and he will be 31.

So no, I am not conceding 2020 to NYY or 2021….NYY had more holes than did LAD, and they cannot fill them all this year, and there will be more next year (especially with starting pitching).

AF has extreme confidence in his development people to develop starting pitching.  He has great confidence that Urias, May, Gonsolin, and Gray will all be upper rotation pitchers to join Buehler and Kershaw, while Stripling and Maeda are competent back end rotation if needed.  NYY cannot claim the same confidence.

Cole – FA

Tanaka – International FA (developed in Japan)

Paxton – Trade

Happ – Trade and re-signed as a FA

Severino – Originally NYY international FA signing (agreed he was developed by NYY)

German – FA after trade with Miami

Montgomery – NYY 4^th round 2014 – He is a Ross Stripling level pitcher.

They traded their top pitching prospect (Justus Sheffield) for Paxton.  Do they have the same concern about developing Deivi Garcia?  He could (should) be ready by 2021 if he continues to develop.  Organizationally NYY has 7 players on their 40 man that they have signed and developed: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Tyler Wade, Mike Ford, Kyle Higashioka, Miguel Andujar.  If they re-sign Gardner, he would be the 8^th.  They have 3 top 100 prospects, all 3 international free agents.  Only two of their top 13 prospects are from Rule 4 Amateur Draft (June Draft); Clarke Schmidt (RHP – #5), and Anthony Volpe (SS #10).

NYY has decided that they cannot adequately develop their own prospects, so they have to trade and sign them as FA.  The Dodgers trust their developmental people. If the Dodgers do not sign any significant FA or make any significant trades, their downside is:

Rely on Urias and May for the rotation.  Not ideal, but certainly not a problem.  Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, May, Maeda – Outside of Cole, I like the Dodgers rotation better overall.

Lux will be the everyday 2B.  Minor League Player of the Year.  I can live with that.

No change in JT, Seager, and Muncy – I will match that infield with NYY and feel confident that LAD is better.

No change in OF.  Verdugo/Belli/Joc-Pollock vs. Tauchman, Gardner (or Hicks), Judge.   I consider Stanton more of a DH than a LF.  I take Belli over Judge, and I take Verdugo over Gardner (Hicks).  Maybe I have my rose colored glasses on, but Joc/Pollock is clearly better than Tauchman, but I would prefer that platoon to Stanton when he is periodically playing LF.

C – Sanchez over Smith, but NYY does not have a backup catcher.  I like Smith and Barnes over Sanchez and Higashioka.  If NYY gets a competent backup catcher, they would have the advantage. Until Ruiz is called up. There is the difference. The Dodgers can call on their farm and NYY (or LAA) cannot.

Where NYY has a clear advantage and where LAD can make their biggest impact is in the bullpen.  Throw all that ERA comparisons out for relief pitchers.  I will take NYY’s bullpen over LAD all day.  I do not expect LAD’s bullpen to be status quo. In fact, I think they have potentially significantly improved with the addition of Blake Treinen. He will not be the last. For those who want to dismiss Treinen as a legit late inning high leverage reliever, AF was pretty spot on with Joe Blanton and Brandon Morrow.

Maybe the Dodgers can trade Kike’ for Britton.  No, it is not a fair trade.  But NYY has to cut down on their payroll, and their strength is their bullpen.  They could use Kike’, and they can replace Britton.  That will save them about $8MM that they can use elsewhere.  Or maybe LAD can pull a Cozart/Will Wilson type deal and acquire JA Happ and Deivi Garcia for cash considerations and/or a third tier lottery pick.  Again not a fair trade, but NYY needs the threshold room. Why would any MLB want a fair deal in any trade with NYY?

2019 Astros playoff rotation – Verlander, Cole, Greinke is better than the projected NYY playoff rotation of Cole, Severino, Tanaka, and the Astros lost to a team the Dodgers should have beaten. Some have said that with a better offense NYY can make up for the talent difference in starting pitching. Wrong – NYY – 943 runs and a slash line of .267/.339/.490/.829, while Houston scored 23 less runs (920), but a superior slash line of .274/.352/.495/.848. As a team, Houston was better last year than NYY is projected for this year, and they lost.

The Dodgers can still improve before ST, be in a position to assess where they are at the trade deadline, and make any necessary changes.  AF may be shy with high-priced FA, but he has not been shy at the trade deadline. So for all of you NYY worshipers, keep the admiration going. I won’t try to dissuade you. I believe the Dodgers have a team that can win. Can’t guarantee that they will, however, I will take my chances with the Dodgers roster next year.