How Did Winter Trades Turn Out

When MT posted his Remember When post, it got me to thinking about trades. I have been obnoxiously opinionated in my zeal for at least one lock down late inning reliever and would prefer two. But I also know that there are NO GUARANTEES. The Darvish and Machado trades did not result in a WS championship, and they were good trades for the Dodgers. If the Dodgers got both Felipe Vazquez and Brad Hand, there would be no guarantees. But I would feel more comfortable after the starting pitcher went 7.0 strong innings.

I am more in favor of winter trades than deadline trades. They are generally less expensive in terms of prospect costs, and the traded players and their new teams have all spring and season to get acclimated without the added pressure of a pennant chase. This past winter, the Dodgers acquired ONE 25-man roster player through a trade, part-time catcher Russell Martin. We can revisit FA another time. But they also thinned their roster and added two quality minor leaguers that could be top ten Dodger prospects when the mid-season prospect lists are published; RHSP Josiah Gray, and the more heralded (at the time) SS/2B Jeter Downs, both at Rancho Cucamonga (A+).

I thought that I would go back to some of the more publicized trades of last winter and see how they may have turned out. It should come as no surprise that Jerry DiPoto and the Seattle Mariners were far and away the most active traders over the winter. During the winter alone, DiPoto traded 10 players from the 2018 roster, 2 MiLB players, and 1 player acquired in one of the trades (Carlos Santana). Two of the players acquired in winter trades were traded during the season; Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce. DiPoto acquired 7 ML players, 10 MiLB players, and 1 Competitive Balance Round B selection. Of the 9 MiLB players, 8 are included in the Mariners top 25 prospects (per MLB Pipeline). Encarnacion also brought back top prospect #16. Three of the top prospects acquired are Top 100 prospects. That doubled the number of Top 100 prospects for the Mariners.

Seattle Trades:

1. From Seattle – 2B Robinson Cano & RHRP Edwin Diaz to NYM for OF Jay Bruce, RHRP Anthony Swarzak, OF Jarred Kelenic (A+) (Seattle #1), RHSP Justin Dunn (AA) (Seattle #2), RHRP Gerston Bautista (AAA) (Seattle #25) (Reached MLB in 2019)
2. From Seattle – LHSP James Paxton to NYY for LHSP Justus Sheffield (AA) (Seattle #4), RHSP Erik Swanson (AAA) (Seattle #9) & OF Dom Thompson-Williams (Seattle #15)
3. From Seattle – 2B Jean Segura, RHRP Juan Nicasio, LHRP James Pazos (later traded to Rockies – AAA) to Philadelphia for 1B/DH Carlos Santana and SS JP Crawford.
4. From Seattle – 1B/DH Carlos Santana & Cash to Cleveland for 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion plus competitive balance round B pick (RHP Isaiah Campbell – Arkansas). In addition Cleveland sent 3B/1B Yandy Diaz and RHRP Cole Sulser (AAA) to Tampa Bay for Jake Bauers, and cash going to Seattle.
5. From Seattle – C Mike Zunino, OF Guillermo Heredia, and LHSP Michael Plassmeyer (A+) to Tampa Bay for CF Mallex Smith and Of Jake Fraley (AAA) (Seattle #14)
6. From Seattle – RHRP Alex Colome’ to White Sox for C Omar Narvaez
7. From Seattle – 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion to NYY for RHSP Juan Then (Rookie League) (Seattle #16)
8. From Seattle – Josh Stowers (A) (NYY #24 prospect) for 2B Shed Long (AAA) (Seattle #12 prospect)
9. From Seattle – OF Ben Gamel to Brewers for OF Domingo Santana.

Besides now listing prospects #1, #2, #4, #9, #12, #14, #15, and #25, the Mariners got out of the Robinson Cano contract boat anchor. Besides the prospect nuggets, the players the Mariners acquired and playing at the ML level:

C Omar Narvaez – .292/.370/.469/.839
OF Domingo Santana – .279/.347/.498/.846
OF Mallex Smith – .233/.304/.368/.671
SS JP Crawford – .316/.383/.500/.883
Anthony Swarzak – Mediocre at best results

• The Mariners cannot be graded until the prospects find their way to a permanent spot on the roster. Overall the Mariners are in a better position to contend by 2021.
• The Mets are having problems with Robinson Cano, and Edwin Diaz is having mixed results.
• James Paxton is having a very mediocre year for NYY – 64.1 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.43 WHIP.
• The Rays are in no way depending on Mike Zunino (.185/.236/.325/.561) or Guillermo Heredia (.235/.328/.353/.681).
• Alex Colome is having a very good year with the ChiSox – The Narvaez for Colome trade seems like a very fair trade for both sides. Narvaez is a clear upgrade over Zunino.
• Ben Gamel is having a decently productive year for Milwaukee, although not at the same production as Domingo Santana for Seattle.

Other publicized trades:

From Miami – Catcher JT Realmuto to Philadelphia for Catcher Jorge Alfaro, LHRP Will Stewart (A+), and RHSP Sixto Sanchez (20-year-old pitching well at AA) (Miami #1).

JT Realmuto is slashing .261/.318/.434/.752, which is not all that superior to Jorge Alfaro (who is batting in a lineup much less prodigious than Philadelphia) .261/.312/.419/.731. Realmuto has 10 HRs with home games in a far cozier park than Miami where Alfaro has 9. With the addition of their #1 prospect, and prospective Ace, Sixto Sanchez, the Marlins clearly have the advantage on this trade. Makes everyone appreciate AF so much more for not indulging the Marlins requirement of Cody Bellinger.
Advantage – Marlins

From Arizona – 1B Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis for RHSP Luke Weaver, C Carson Kelly, 2B Andy Young (AAA), and a Competitive Balance Pick Round B (Dominic Fletcher).

If we are basing this trade on the 1st half of 2019, this is an overwhelming plus for the DBacks. In addition to the players received in the trade, the DBacks are getting a huge benefit with the breakout year from 1B Christian Walker. The DBacks have found their long-term catcher in Carson Kelly, and were getting a breakout year from RHSP Luke Weaver before the injury.

Goldschmidt – .253/.341/.418/.759 – 14 HR
Walker – .261/.332/.486/.818 – 14 HR
Kelly – .271/.354/.528/.882 – 9 HR
Weaver – 4-3, 62.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.107 WHIP – His injuries are healing, and he should rejoin the DBacks this year.
Advantage – DBacks

From NYY – RHSP Sonny Gray to Cincinnati for 2B Shed Long (AAA) (Seattle #12) and Competitive Balance Pick A (LHP T. J. Sikkema – Missouri)

The Reds got their head of the rotation pitcher in Sonny Gray who also signed 3-year contract extension with a club option. NYY got out of a bad situation, and maybe a nice LHP from the competitive round A pick. This was a wash.

So far the Cardinals cannot feel positive about their trade and subsequent 5-year contract extension for Goldy. But the team that seems to be suffering the largest setback after Winter moves have been the Phillies. Their acquisition of Realmuto and Segura have been pedestrian at best, while the players they traded away are having fine years including Carlos Santana who is having an All-Star season thus far. But combined with the lackluster season (putting it kindly) that Bryce Harper is having, and that Andrew McCutcheon is out for the year, it is hard to visualize a team having a worse result from Winter transactions than the Phillies. If Gabe Kapler finishes the year as the Phillies Manager, he should consider it a success. Somebody is going to be a scapegoat.

I am certain that each of the team’s baseball personnel heads believed they were making positive trades when they made them. Just as I am certain that AF believes in every move he makes (or doesn’t make). So when it comes to this year’s trade deadline date, I feel confident that he will make what he considers the best trade to make the team better without giving up top prospects. The “problem” will be that the Dodger fans will not have a consensus opinion on the trade, and most voices will be against the trade(s).

AC MINOR LEAGUE REPORT

OKC Dodgers 10 – Nashville Sounds 7 (A’s)

The Dodgers broke open a 5-5 tie with a 5 run 8th inning, and then held on after the Sounds scored 2 runs in the 9th, with the tying run coming to the plate. Kevin Quackenbush struck out the only batter he faced to end the threat and earn his 4th save.

Mitchell White started and went 2.1 innings (47 pitches). He yielded 1 run on 2 hits, 2 walks, and 5 Ks. Daniel Corcino relieved White and when 4.2 innings giving up 4 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks, with 4 Ks. Jaime Schultz pitched a scoreless 8th and struck out the side. Shea Spitzbarth had another ineffective outing allowing 2 runs on 3 hits and 1 walk and 1 HBP in 0.2 IP, before giving way to Quackenbush.

The Dodgers had 12 hits, including 4 with 2 hits. Connor Joe including his 7th HR and 2 walks, Cameron Perkins including his 7th HR and 4 RBIs, , DJ Peters including his 3rd double, and Josh Thole. Jon Kemmer hit his first OKC Dodger HR, while Zach Reks (8) and Shane Peterson (11) each had doubles.

Tulsa Drillers 1 – Arkansas Travelers 2 (Mariners)

The offense disappeared again for this game. Of course, Seattle’s #4 prospect and the brother of the Drillers closer, Justus Sheffield, had something to do with that. He pitched a 2 hitter over 8 innings, but was being matched by Driller pitchers. Parker Curry and Michael Boyle pitched 6 scoreless innings. Ryan Moseley allowed one run and the two teams went into the bottom of the 9th tied 1-1. Edward Paredes started the 9th and after allowing a leadoff single. He allowed the runner to reach 2nd on a WP who went to 3rd on a sac bunt with one out. Yordy Cabrera relieved Parades and issue 2 IBB before giving up the winning single..

The Driller offense consisted of a Keibert Ruiz double (8) and a Brandon Montgomery single for his first AA RBI. Brandon was recently promoted to AA for the first time.

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 4 – Lancaster JetHawks 6 (Rockies)

The JetHawks scored one in the ninth to tie, and then 2 in the 12^th to steal the victory,  Jeter Downs was the offensive star going 2-5 with a HR (14) and double (17).  Marcus Chiu and Brayan Morales each had a pair of hits.  Leo Crawford struck out 8 in his 5.1 IP.

Great Lakes Loons (7) – Fort Wayne TinCaps 6 (Padres)

The two teams finished regulation time tied up at 5-5. Luke Heyer started at 2B but came in to pitch the 9th and 10th innings. He allowed 1 run in the 10th but with the bases loaded and nobody out, Heyer struck out a batter and then induced a DP to end the game. Dillon Paulson was the hitting star going 3-4 with 2 HRs. The former Trojan 1B now has 10 HRs on the season. Jair Camargo had a two-hit night. Hunter Feduccia (13) and Luke Heyer (7) had doubles, while Chris Roller had his third triple. With Luke Heyer starting at 2nd to start the 1oth, Chris Roller hit a triple (3) scoring Heyer. Roller then came around to score on a Jair Camargo.

Ogden Raptors 19 – Grand Junction Rockies 8

The Raptors scored 9 runs in the 2nd, 2 in the 3rd, 1 in the 5th, 3 in the 7th, and 4 in the 8th to plate 19 runs. There were multiple offensive stars in this game, but none more than 2B Sam McWilliams who hit 2 3-run HRs and 7 RBIs on the night. Jon Littell and Marco Hernandez each had 3 hits with Littell hitting his first triple. Justin Yurchak had two hits and 3 walks, Joe Vranesh had two hits and 4 RBIs, and Zac Ching had 2 hits.

21-year-old RHP Ricardo Hernandez was the one pitcher who had productive evening allowing 1 hit over 3.0 scoreless innings. No walks and 2 Ks.

AZL Dodgers Lasorda 8 – AZL Giants Black 4

The Lasordas fell behind 4-1 but scored 8 runs in the 7th and 1 more in the 8th. The Lasordas used 3 walks, 3 HBP, 2 singles, and a sac fly with a couple of errors to score 6 to take the lead. After SP Igor Avila allowed 4 runs, Adolpho Ramirez, Reinaldo De Paula, and Gabe Benavides pitched 7.1 scoreless innings to secure the victory. Aldo Espinoza had three hits, with Aldrich De Jongh, Yhostin Chirinos, Rolando Lebron, and Jorbit Vivas each with 2 hits.

AZL Dodgers Mota 3 – AZL Giants Orange 9

Jack Little started his second game and pitched two hitless innings with 3 Ks. 17-year-old SS Alex De Jesus continued to show a hot bat going 2-4, raising his AZL BA to .424. Luis Diaz hit his 2nd HR. Huei-Sheng Lin continued to struggle falling to 0-3 after allowing 6 runs on 8 hits in his 2.0 IP.

DSL Dodgers Bautista 2 – DSL Astros 3

Three Bautista pitchers pitched a solid game, but the defense failed them. They allowed 3 runs all unearned on 3 hits and 4 walks. The Bautistas had 4 errors creating the three-run opportunity. The three pitchers had a combined 11 K’s. The Bautistas scored two runs on 6 hits in the loss. Ender Avendano went 2-4 with a double (3), and Harold Restituyo also went 2-4. Amin Valdez hit his first double.

DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 14 – DSL Indians/Brewers 3

The Shoemakers broke open a close 4-2 game with a 9 run 5th. After a lead off walk, Bladimir De La Rosa launched a triple (2), which was followed by a Rushenten Tomsjansen triple (2) of his own. Tomsjansen then scored on a passed ball. Two singles, two 2-run scoring doubles by Luis Izturis (2) and De La Rosa (7), 4 walks, 1 HBP, and 5 WP was a recipe for 6 more runs. For the game, De La Rosa went 3-5 with 2 doubles and a triple, Rushenten Tomsjansen went 3-5 with a triple, Marion Cairo went 2-3.

Hugo Beltran started and went 4.0 innings allowing 2 runs on 2 hits. A trio of Luisenyer Perez, Frankelyn Feliz, and Horacio Andujar finished the game allowing one run on 3 hits.