Here's the Deal!

On a note in yesterday’s column. The Royals draw reasonably well win they put a decent product in the field. Many Royal fans our disappointed when they don’t go out and get players although, mainly because of the competitive tax, the Royals end up in the black.

Bluto looking at teams that drafted hi ,and have players blocked,which players would you say are worth looking at.

I’d get an ace starting pitcher and a number 2 via free agent or trade and Cease is not that, I see him as a number 3. I’d get free agents Brasier and Shelby Miller. Then I would get free agent Rhys Hoskins for the outfield and get free agents JD Martinez or Justin Turner for DH.

I’m convinced that most of those who vote for any type of rewards are bias against the dodgers

Mark’s trade: No just no. Trade the farm for 1,2,2 years of control. Everyone wants to be a free agent to get the big money. Either those guys turn out to be, as the saying goes, not all that or they do good and leave for big money.

I think Mark is just making discussion, because Mark usually likes to hoard prospects and there’s nothing wrong with that to a point.

Google news is reporting that the Cubs are the favorite to land Ohtani. I don’t place much faith in that. But they say endorsements from Darvish and Suzuki have made it so. I will believe that when I see a press conference. Padres interviewed ex Angels skipper, Phil Nevin.

Over at ESPN and behind their paywall is a retrospective look at the Rangers and the steps taken to win the WS.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38841610/mlb-2023-world-series-rangers-trades-semien-seager-scherzer

Here are some of the lessons that Dave Shoenfield took away:

Lesson: Be lucky.

Lesson: Find players blocked in other organizations.

Lesson: Hope your bullpen gets hot at the right time.

Lesson: Spend the money!

Lesson: You can never have too much starting pitching.

40% is pretty much luck.

I really like the 2nd one.

On thet final note, Schoenfield expands that he anticipates the Dodgers to heed this lesson this off-season:

The Dodgers will be getting Walker Buehler back, but they’ll be without Kershaw and Julio Urias, leaving Bobby Miller as the only proven holdover from 2023.

While I am not in favor of signing Ohtani from a baseball standpoint, it sounds like Friedman and the business side want to sign him badly. I have no idea what additional revenues Ohtani brings into the business, and whether it is $70 million like Hairston is saying, or $10 million per year like others estimate. But if the Dodgers are set on signing Ohtani long term, then I would propose a contract structured like this:

$450 million guaranteed for 15 years.

Annual incentives of:

$5 million if 500 at bats.

$5 million if MVP

$5 million if World Series winner

$1 million per pitching start up to $30 million per year.

If he performs to his potential, he will make $75 million per year, but the Dodgers are only committed to $30 million per year.

The Dodgers would be offering Ohtani a contract in which he can make $1.125 billion!

I think Ohtani would be open to an incentive laden contract and would be willing to bet on himself instead of just taking a long term guarantee regardless of performance.

If the Dodgers give up that much talent, they should have Barnes or Taylor included.

In my view, the Dodgers should add 2-3 quality starters like Burnes, Snell, Gray and/or Imanaga. Starting pitching should be the focus as the Dodger offense was really good last year. I believe if they brought back a similar lineup and added Lux and Busch, the lineup would be even better without free agent additions. I also think Vargas and Deluca will potentially be better with experience. Vargas started the year with a broken finger and a new position, and he never looked like the quality hitter he has always been.

The lineup is impressive just keeping the internal players:

Betts

Freeman

JDM

Muncy

Smith

Outman

Lux

Heyward/Taylor

Busch/Vargas

Bench- Taylor, Vargas, Kike, Rojas, Barnes/Feduccia, DeLuca

This lineup is with no new additions, just bringing back JDM, Heyward, and maybe Kike and should make them the favorite to win the division. I would still be open to adding a RH bat at 3B or LF in free agency like Teoscar, Candelario or Soler, but that is a lower priority than starting pitching.

Severino anyone? An AF rehab project!

I would love to have Roberts, and the Sox are trying to reduce payroll. What Mark proposed seems like a package that would get it done. They would have enough left over to fix some other problems like starting pitching.

So many paths and opportunities.

So much misinformation. As Gomes said, some true and some not.

Where do the Dodgers go from here?

So, what does the average fan think. It’s Ohtani or bust this winter, that’s pretty clear. Oh yes, sign a pitcher or two.

This site is different from what’s being said out on the street. People here are trying to determine the best direction for the Dodgers to go, how best to stretch a dollar and how do you get the best talent for the buck. Some are focused on what Friedman will or won’t do. After walking around for a week in Dodger gear, which creates a lot of discussion with others who follow the Dodgers, and there are a lot of them, not one is focused on how the Dodgers should move forward. No one is discussing plan A or Plan B.

Most of the conversations begin and end with two words, Shohei Ohtani. That’s who the average fans want.

Maybe, it’s the hype or watching him play on Angel broadcasts, seeing highlights nightly. Maybe it’s because he’s a generational talent. Perhaps it’s the string of stories connecting him with the Dodgers. Local media, national media, doesn’t matter, most link Ohtani with the Dodgers. There is an expectation, a rising wave.

No one is talking Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto or even Corbin Burnes. No, I get it, you need starting pitching to win and Ohtani won’t pitch until 2025. He will not put the Dodgers over the top without the pitching.

Then we look at Friedman’s history and he usually doesn’t sign the big free agent, the exception Freddie Freeman and face it, it was the perfect storm.

Ohtani is a lot of money, maybe too much money. But the Dodgers have melted down in the first round of the playoffs two times in a row, right? Organizational failure, no one even knows what that actually means. But if they repeat the formula and get ousted again by the division runner-up, the barbarians will be at the gate. Once is a fluke, two is a trend and three would be a full blown disaster. The law of high expectations and falling short.

Friedman once said, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”

Then you look at history. The Dodgers lost out on Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Corey Seager, Yu Darvish and Trea Turner. Well, apparently they didn’t even talk to Turner about a new deal, according to Trea, so he doesn’t count.

Will the Dodgers talk the talk, then fold when the numbers make them uncomfortable? History suggests, yes. The future is unknown. Maybe, for a variety of reasons, including increased revenue, Ohtani makes too much sense to pass on. As Jerry Hairston on the Dodger show the other night pointed out, Ohtani is apparently worth $70 to $79 million annually to the team that signs him. That’s annually, he emphasized. Maybe that’s why the Dodgers added a new VP to focus on world sponsorship, advertising and marketing opportunities. It’s a different time.

One side note, JP Hoornstra of the LA Daily said the Dodgers have been tracking Shota Imanaga for awhile, suggesting the Dodgers are very interested in landing him. Maybe he’s the lefty.

As to Mark’s trade proposal. Roberts is a very good player, but I’m not so sure the White Sox do that deal. You still need players to put fans in seats this season and next and without a doubt he’s an exciting player.

But if you can get him, definitely.

I’d be happy with Robert Jr, Burnes, Gray, Heyward and JDM. Hernandez is too much swing and miss and we have enough of those already. I think either Busch or Vargas will be packaged in a trade. Still think Ohtani is a smoke screen

Wow! That’s a ton to give up. And Cease in my mind is a big ? One great year. And his stuff regressed in 23. I’d pass but would make a lesser offer for Robert Jr. and sign a top free agent pitcher. Also think AF will bring in one of his famous reclamation SP projects.

Not a bad trade you are suggesting. Yes, a lot of prospects involved on our side but the return is considerable.

Would leave enough money for even Ohtani.

That would make for a lethal lineup, at least on paper.

What makes the trade even more attractive for the Dodgers;They have so many kids to protect in the RuleV draft they probably HAVE to make such a blockbuster trade not risking them for nothing.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

According to MLBTR, the Dodgers are showing interest in Teoscar:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/dodgers-showing-interest-in-teoscar-hernandez.html

Even at his best, Hernández brings a lot of swing-and-miss. He fanned in 31.1% of his plate appearances this year and has gone down on strikes more than 28% of the time through the past four seasons. The profile is built more around power than strong on-base skills.

MLBTR nevertheless predicts Hernández to find a four-year pact that pays around $20MM annually, slotting him as the #12 free agent. He recently turned 31 and is arguably the #4 position player in the class behind Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. Hernández has a bat-first reputation but logged nearly 1200 right field innings with Seattle, grading as a league average corner outfield defender by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

Los Angeles can go in a number of directions on the position player front. They’re presently shorthanded in the corner outfield and designated hitter mix after Jason Heyward, J.D. Martinez and David Peralta reached free agency. L.A. will obviously be among the teams pursuing Ohtani and could look to bring Martinez and/or Heyward back depending on how the offseason progresses.

Mookie Betts showed the ability to play an effective second base in addition to his Gold Glove caliber outfield work. Gomes indicated the Dodgers would continue to get Betts into action at the keystone, noting that the club plans to give plenty of shortstop work to Gavin Lux. The 25-year-old infielder missed the entire season after tearing the ACL in his right knee during Spring Training. The Dodgers have glove-first veteran Miguel Rojas under contract but could kick him into a utility role if Lux steps into something approaching an everyday shortstop job.

Meanwhile, Gomes added that younger infielders Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch could find their way into the corner outfield (via Ardaya). They’ve each seen limited time in left field in the minors but are primarily second and third basemen. Neither player has hit well against MLB pitching in limited looks but they have accomplished offensive track records in Triple-A. Given the multi-positional flexibility throughout the roster, the Dodgers can go in a number of ways over the coming months.