The Dodgers are coming off of one of the all-time great seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. Only the 1906 Cubs had a season in the Senior Circuit with more wins and only 4 teams have ever matched or exceeded 111 wins. There’s no doubt about it, last year’s team was great, tainted only by an early postseason exit against a team they dominated all season.
That’s not to say that even if the entire team came back this season, they would be able to match that win total. It’s just not going to happen. Baseball is too random to permit this and 111 wins is in a sense, a statistical anomaly.
Last season, the Dodgers finished 10 games ahead of the 101 win New York Mets and just like the Dodgers, those Amazing Mets had their postseason cut short by the Pesky Padres, who won just 89 games during the regular season. A strange finish to a historic season indeed. It seemed that all year the Padres couldn’t find a winning streak and the Phillies were even worse, with just 87 wins while finishing just 12 games over 500. This is now all in the past and like every year we begin to look forward.
A recent update to the Las Vegas odds has the Dodgers NOT favored to win the World Series with the New York Mets taking the top spot in the National League. How can this happen? What did the Mets do this offseason to leapfrog a team that finished 10 games ahead of them in the standings?
This offseason, the Mets spent a ton of money and have a record payroll as a result. I guess Vegas like that. After all, the Dodgers have been payroll leaders the last couple of years and they also had the most favorable Vegas odds. I can see a correlation. Looking through their transactions page, they didn’t make a lot of additions. They replaced deGrom with Verlander and on health alone, that should help their win total. But, without going into how many of his starts they won and lost when he was on the IL, it’s hard to quantify the effect of this swap. Maybe they’re assuming the Carlos Correa deal is done and he’s going to be that much better than Eduardo Escobar. Overall, those are improvements, do they equal 10 wins? Mostly, the Mets spent a lot of money bringing back a lot of their own guys. Overspending on closer Edwin Diaz and bringing back Ottovino and Nimmo while losing other bullpen fixtures in Trevor Williams, Joely Rodríguez and Trevor May. The Mets also retooled their rotation swapping deGrom, Bassitt and Walker for Verlander, Senga and Quintana.
Like the Dodgers, it looks like they moved players in and out, but roughly came up with the same net result, kind of. The rotation has different faces, but the net result could be slightly better, or slightly worse. The bullpen is probably slightly worse, and Correa is probably an upgrade over Escobar if he 1) gets signed and 2) if he can remain healthy.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, had a relatively quiet offseason and reduced payroll significantly. The exact opposite of the Mets. But, the Dodgers didn’t have so many key pieces to replace like the Mets either. The Dodgers could have just paid another 30 something million, stayed over the cap, and then they would have only had to replace Trea Turner to be relatively even to last year’s squad. Instead, they chose to let Cody and Justin walk in addition to Trea. They went on to replace Justin with a true “Nelson Cruz” type DH and seemingly handed over CF to Outman and 3B to Vargas. You’ll see why shortly. The pitching staff largely remains the same as last season. In fact, there may be some addition by subtraction in the pen by not bringing back Kimbrel and Price. In the rotation, they’re basically replacing Heaney and Anderson with Thor and Ginger Thor. I think that’s an upgrade, but time will ultimately tell. And we aren’t quite done yet as Bauer will either be a Cy Young winner added back to a deep rotation, or will be a trade chip to acquire some additional talent. Surely, one of the best GM’s will get some value for a Cy Young winner playing on a 30% discount? He isn’t dumb enough to just cut him, is he?
I’m going to go against the grain here. I have my feet dug into the sand. I believe in the plan for the 2023 Dodgers. They may not win 111 games, but they’re going to be just as good or possibly better than last year’s team when all is said and done. Here’s why…
The Projections
I wanted to put a little bit of analysis together on who we lost and who we’re replacing them with while looking at the projections from Baseball America and my own thoughts on how they might fare in the upcoming year using OPS as the offensive stat to compare these outcomes. I’m only comparing 4 players in the lineup as I strongly feel Betts, Freeman, Smith and Lux are mostly constants. In that, they all should have similar numbers as they had last season. The other position is Left Field, which was a hodgepodge of multiple players last season, and is looking about the same this year. There were also simply too many players that shared the position last year to get a sum of total production from that position. More on that later.
Gone are Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger. Also, Max Muncy played semi-full time during an Injury hampered season. This is the production we had from this quartet last year compared to the production that Baseball America projects for their likely replacements (And Max) this year.
This doesn’t look too bad. We’re just 8 OPS points under how they performed as group last season. But, as you can see, BR isn’t giving the replacements a whole lot of love. I mean, I can accept James Outman’s OPS total when you don’t really have a starting point for a rookie that’s just coming into the league. But, JDM, Miguel and Muncy all seem to have been skimmed off the top to me.
Let’s start with JD Martinez who played through a knee injury last season. It was his worst full season of his career and he still managed to hit 274/341/448/790 with 16 homers and 43 doubles in 139 games. At the end of June and before the injury, he slashed 313/384/498/882. Is it realistic to pencil him in with an OPS that’s over 100 points lower than the first half of last season? If we split the difference, his OPS for next season would be 829 which is still a lot lower that his healthy 2021 season when he posted an 867. I’ll be conservative here and go with 829 as a realistic number.
Next up, Max Muncy. Another player that played while recovering from injury last season. Another year removed, he should be back to his old self, right? Max has played just 4 full seasons in his career, including last season. 2020 was the pandemic season and before he arrived with the Dodgers, he played in two partial seasons with the A’s. In the three full seasons where he was healthy, his lowest OPS was 889. In 2021 he was at 895. Let’s split the difference again. I’m being extremely conservative here, because there’s really no reason he can’t get back to this level as a 32 year old. But, nonetheless, by spitting the difference, we can reasonably assume an almost worse case scenario for Max and that OPS number would be 804. This is very low for a guy that put up 973, 889, 895 in his three healthy full seasons since coming to the Dodgers.
Lastly, because I don’t think that Outman’s projection is unreasonable, I’ll move on to Vargas. He’s a bat first prospect that’s never hit below 300 in a full season in the minors. If that isn’t impressive enough, the Dodgers have been aggressive with his development and have moved him up each level where he’s played against completion that was about 2 years older on average at each stop. He had a rough showing in his first cup of coffee which doesn’t mean anything, but apparently Baseball America thinks is does. How else would you explain projecting a Belli-esque OPS for a guy that OPS’d 901 in a full season at AAA where he had a 303 batting average and a 404 On Base Percentage? Since the season ended, he’s been at the stadium every day working towards next season. I think he’s going be jacked compared to last year and he’s really going to break out. But, I’ll try to be a little more analytical for this exercise.
Last season Steven Kwan, LF, Cleveland Guardians; Brendan Donovan, UTIL, St. Louis Cardinals; and Michael Harris II, CF, Atlanta Braves were all Rookie of the year finalists. None were on the Top 100 Prospect lists to start the season and all of them helped their respective teams reach the playoffs. Here’s their particulars…
Steven Kwan – Age 24 298/373/400/772 AAA Prior Season 311/398/505/903
Michael Harris – Age 21 297/339/514/853 AA Prior Season 305/372/506/878
Brendan Donovan – Age 25 281/394/379/773 AAA Prior Season 288/389/496/885
Compared to
Miguel Vargas – Age 22 AAA 304/404/511/915
As you can see, Miguel Vargas had a better year in AAA than all three of these players and is the same kind of hitter – High Average and High OBP, except all three of these ROY candidates are the speedy types that turn outs into hits because of their speed. I repeat, none of them were on any top 100 lists while Vargas is ranked 41 overall late last season and they all turned in solid to very good seasons. This isn’t to say that Vargas will definitely do better. But for now, let’s allow him to match the worst of them and use Steven Kwan’s OPS as a realistic OPS projection for Vargas.
This is where we wind up…
That’s more like it and low and behold, we’re actually a much better offensive team than we were last year. Without considering that Jayson Heyward and CT3 are probably going to improve those left field totals as well. It’s no wonder that AF made the moves he made while recognizing a perfect opportunity to reset the cap.
Are you still worried about next season? I’m not. Are the Mets really better? Hell no! The Dodgers are going to roll to another division title next season and if you can get favorable betting odds from one of those 5 out of 4 people that can’t do math, do it! Because we are just as likely to do even better than last year as we are to do worse. Just for giggles and kicks. Let’s look at the reasonable scenario where Muncy and Martinez get back to 2021 production and Vargas and Outman are 800 OPS prospects.
Now we’re talking! I’m not willing to bet my life on these numbers, but I honestly believe these are within reach. Outman was a beast last year. His OPS at AAA was over 100 points higher than those ROY finalists and he’s close to the same age as two of them. He’s also a beast on defense in CF. I’m not certain that I’m all in on him, mostly because of the K rate and his caveman swing from college. But, he might just be the hitting version of Tony Gonsolin. Small Northern California School, nobody thought much of the draft slot, but wow what a pick that was. However, only a moron would believe that what he did in his initial cup of coffee is a predictor of his future success. It’s much too small of a sample to mean anything.
Vargas is a pure hitter, just like the three ROY finalists that I listed. He’s younger than two of them and has posted better numbers in the minors while being younger at each level and having to adjust to a new country and working off his the pudgy body that he had when he first signed. He doesn’t have the benefit of great speed like the others do, but put up similar to better numbers than all three of them. Now, he’s working out like a beast at Dodger stadium. Most assume he’s working on his glove, but if you’re at the stadium, you’re working at all facets of the game and working with strength and conditioning coaches as well. I would seriously take the over on an 800 OPS with Vargas for the upcoming season. Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger blasted past 800 with ease it their first seasons, why can’t Vargas when he put up such great numbers in the minors?
With Max, I see him as having the same odds of surpassing his 2021 numbers as he does coming up short. Sandwiched in-between JDM and Will Smith is going to take pressure off of him and he’s going to start feeling comfortable in the box again. His 858 OPS over the last two months of the season indicates he’s back on the road to recovery. A normal offseason workout routine will help. Let’s hope he’s past the lingering elbow issues that put him behind the eight ball last year.
JDM is one of the best pure hitters in the majors. I believe he was a top 5 hitter in all of baseball for the six years run from 2014 to 2019. He’s reunited with his favorite hitting coach and one of his best buddies from the Red Sox in Mookie Betts. He might just have another 900+ OPS season left in him batting between Freeman and Muncy.
I honestly think this offense will be better than last year’s. The anti-shift, pitch clock, and larger bases are going to change baseball significantly. But, with all things being equal, I think this team has improved the Starting Pitching, Bullpen and Offense while taking a slight hit on defense. It’s going to be a fun year if the rule changes don’t completely change the game.
Discussion (31)
Disagree, not disagreeable
This was the tweet about Bauer…
“Last week I reached out to 10 current #Dodgers players. Four have responded already. None of them have any concern playing on the same team as Trevor Bauer. In fact, two even went as far as saying they feel the trial by social media has been completely unfair. There’s your story.”
So, he reached out to ten players. All of them responded in the affirmative. That’s pretty good betting odds, Bluto!
There is an obvious problem with the projections of Cartaya as a superstar, or as “the face of the franchise.”
His name is Will Smith.
So when will Cartaya beat out Smith for the starter’s job? When does Smith get pushed aside?
We used to talk about Cartaya pushing Will to 3B–but then where will Miguel Vargas play?
There is speculation that Will could be traded, but isn’t Cartaya the more likely trade candidate? Perhaps he is included in a blockbuster…
Say, Cartaya + Bush + Amaya + Miller for Adames and Burnes.
Or something,
Another reason Cartaya could be traded: Dalton Rushing. Pretty nice to have both Cartaya and Rushing waiting in the wings. (And Cartaya’s presence is also why Rushing might get traded.)
Understand that I don’t want any of these guys traded… unless the return is really compelling.
Hey, perhaps Cartaya will push Smith to 3B… and Vargas winds up getting traded.
I’ve been in favor in trading for BR, but the prospects mentioned above by Bradley is way too much. Maybe Pepiot and another top 20 player. Reynolds is a solid player, but isn’t that outstanding to warrant that type of return in IMO. But, that’s why the Pirates are the Pirates. But, if that’s the cost then pass and plug with a platoon or trade for a year or two.
If there is anything I’ve learned about the Friedman front office over the years it is that nothing ever gets leaked. It is fun sport speculating what he’s going to do, but in the end, we really have no idea what will happen until the official announcement comes out. I wouldn’t be surprised if move(s) are made that none of us ever thought of.
Ahh gotta love the delusions of grandeur in the minds of some fans. Let AF take care of the trades and signings. He knows what he is doing and where those guys factor in the Dodger plans, everything you do is pure guesswork with no real inside info whatsoever.
We just witnessed a big offense still needs a defense to win. Enjoy the new conference USC.
From what I hear Dodgers and Pirates in serious discussions about Bryan Reynolds. That right there would be the move to make and put him out in Leftfield with Outman in Center and Betts in Rightfield. The Pirates want Pepiot Miller and Pages I say the Dodgers due that deal. That outfield is then set for the next five years. You have you infeils of Vargas at 3rd Lux SS Muncy 2B and Freeman 1B. Smith and Barnes at Catcher. Your bench you have Martinez Taylor Thompson Hernandez Heyward and maybe Dugger if he does better then Thompson in spring training. I put Hernandez in there. Because Roberts likes a player that can play anywhere in the infield. Still that bench seems better then last year’s.
USC-Tulane in the 4th quarter. SC leads 42-30
I knew an Olympic boxer that proudly proclaimed to me that he boxed better on television. Some players play better and some the opposite. Gladly soon to be seen. Just maybe the rookies can all answer the call. The stage is set and it’s the biggest one.
I’m excited about the transition to the young players coming up. I’m also looking forward to more regular season competition from the Pads. It’s going to be a fun and interesting season, even if the D’s ONLY win 95 games. ( Being a Dodger fan is ROUGH!) As for Bauer, it’s tick tick tock, the mouse ran up the clock. Bye bye Bauer.
On Fanduel today:
RUMOR: Some Dodgers totally fine playing with Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer may soon be back in major league baseball. After he became eligible for the 2023 season due to a decreased suspension, speculation followed about whether he would return to his previous team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Apparently, some members of the team are cool with it.
Baseball blogger Dan Clark tried to show that the Dodgers would actually welcome Bauer back to the team. Via a tweet (with its comments disabled), he claimed that he had reached out to 10 current Dodgers players last week and that four had gotten back to him to say that they don’t have concerns with bringing Bauer back to the team.
Clark – who smugly declared that a handful of Dodgers players being cool with Bauer on the team was indicative of Bauer’s mistreatment — didn’t give any hints as to who the anonymous players were. It was reported recently that Los Angeles plans to release Bauer due to concerns over adding him to the clubhouse. This was the reported stance from most Dodgers players upon the initial suspension as well.
They will score 200 runs less and allow 100 more. If you can make your analysis work with those parameters then you have a case. I think you need to take off your Dodger goggles and realize they will be in the last wild card fight.
Anthony Castrovince says Dodgers win it all in 23.
Josh Fuentes, Arenado’s cousin, signed to a minor league deal by the Braves.
We got some snow here in Canon City tonight. First of the new year. Love it.
At this point there’s nobody good on the free agent market and I don’t want the Dodgers to trade away prospects especially pitching propects because the Dodgers have a history of developing better pitchers than hitters. And that’s what it will take to get someone good.
There is concern here about Outman’s defense in CF and hitting against LHP. I don’t get concerned about defense unless someone clearly sucks on defense so I won’t go there. I think Outman will do fine against LHP he’s going to surprise some.
Where I’m concerned is if they bring up too many hitting prospects. It looks like Vargas and Outman are going to get their shot. That’s enough because I don’t think there are any more hitting prospects that are ready. Busch is close though.
Great article B&P and Happy New Year!
Very logical analysis and I agree with almost all of it.
The only slight difference of opinion is on Outman.
He had a great year in 2022, and has the tools to be a good MLB player. But I think it is a stretch to assume he will be a full time MLB CF in 2023. While he deserves the chance, I see him as more of a platoon player who shares time in the OF with Taylor, Thompson, and others. My concern with Outman is that he has a much smaller track record of hitting well in the minors than Vargas, even though he has been older than most of his competition. He also did not play CF in OKC so his ability to be a MLB CF is uncertain. And he hit considerably worse against LHP compared to RHP in 2022, with 100 lower OBP and 350 lower OPS against lefties. His BA was 236 and OPS was 739 against LHP in 2022. I may be wrong on Outman, and he may be a great CF who can hit MLB lefties, but I think CT3 will likely have more at bats and a bigger impact in 2023 than Outman. My understanding is that CT3 had nagging injuries most of 2022 that hampered his season, and I expect him to bounce back this year.
Also, depending on the Bauer resolution, I could see the Dodgers adding a lower priced free agent outfielder like Pollock, McCutchen Duvall, or Bradley jr to help stabilize the outfield.
But as the roster stands, the Dodgers should be able to compete with the Mets, Padres, Phillies and Braves for the NL title.
Excellent writeup BP. I have never been a Bauer fan, but let him pitch now and see where it goes. The main negative is he will take a place of one of the Kids. Can’t wait for Spring Training, gonna’ be a fun year.
Happy New Year everyone !!
I’m watching, for a second time, Glass Onion.
It’s a ton of fun!
“It’s a dangerous thing to mistake speaking without thought for speaking the truth.”
Very impressive. Well thought out.
Good analysis BP.
I’ve had other Dodger fans I know come up to me over the past few weeks and ask me my thoughts on the lack of moves this off-season. I point out one simple fact.
You hoard prospects for one of two reasons. To trade them or play them. AF has turned down who knows how many offers for the guys we have in the system that are big league ready. He obviously believes it’s time to play them. I remember the outright anger from fans that we didn’t trade Seager, Bellinger, Urias, Walker… ect ect for whatever big name was up on the trading block. For years! Big names that most of those fans couldn’t even remember. Largely because many of those players were traded at peak value and have since become much less valuable players.
AF has traded prospects for big names. Last I checked those prospects we did trade haven’t done a thing. Yordan Alvarez is the exception, but nobody saw that coming. The prospects we gave up for Machado and Darvish have (just from the top of my head) produced exactly one serviceable MLB player. Dean Kremer. And he has had only one average season as a starter. AF has a pretty damn good track record for trading marginal prospects and keeping the best for ourselves. And his ability to identify low cost “projects” has been very productive. CT3, Muncy, Heaney, JT, Tyler Anderson… those were are extremely low risk or zero risk acquisitions that were laughed at as “bottom feeding” by many fans at the time.
I also feel quite confident where we are at. And if the current projects don’t work out or our young guys underperform, AF has shown his willingness to make a move.
My only issue with this off-season is Bauer. And that wasn’t something the Dodgers had any control over. Even with his reduced salary we have zero room as far as resetting the luxury tax. And I believe that is important for the next two off seasons. And shame on MLB for creating that sh*t show.
I’ll go on the record and say we likely have to play Bauer. It will require being willing to deal with the inevitable blow back and the guaranteed rage of the Twitter mobs, but I don’t believe there are any scenarios where we get any value back for him and releasing him solves nothing in terms of lux tax. As long as there aren’t major issues caused in the clubhouse, I see that as the only smart move. If that is how this plays out, I just hope Bauer shuts his trap and finds some humility. Regardless of how much he thinks he was wronged.
Excellent job, B&P!! However, you were even better the other day when you took Bluto to the woodshed regarding Bauer and checked his ass!!! No, not checked….checkmated!! All he had to say was, “joke?” LMFAO!!! Keep up the good work, brother! Happy New Year, y’all!!
VIVA AZUL!!
Great analysis B&P. Thx. Can’t wait to see the kids play!
I still think they need a veteran leftfielder and have Outman in center field between the two veterans. Someone like Ozuna or Pollack or Reynolds or O’Neil a guy that the rookie can go to and he has Betts in right field. The infield of Vargas Lux Muncy Freeman Smith I prefer Muncy at third base. And Lux scares me with his throws fro short. Would rather have Muncy 3b trade for a short stop how about Elvis Andrus Lux then at 2b and then Freeman 1b and Smith at catcher. Or you put Vargas at third and play Muncy at third who he hits better lefties or righties and you still have Barnes Taylor Thompson Heyward and Busch JD Martinez to fill in and give guys rest maybe Freeman doesn’t play every day msybemuncy okay first base some and Betts when he gets a day off you have Heyward play. That’s my opinion the dodgers always have veterans with rookies think leftfielder is the key piece missing and do u want Taylor Thompson Busch as your options or a Tyler O’Neil or Bryan Reynolds who you can see be the leftfielder for years.
B&P, a logical and well thought analysis for the upcoming season. I agree with most of your conclusions, The Mets have such an old starting staff and it’s inevitable that injuries will cause a derailment in their season. To quote Mike Tyson “everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face”. I feel the Mets are going to get multiple hits to “the face”.
The Padres will self destruct at some point. I look at the Braves and maybe the Phils as the Dodgers main roadblock to the world series.
I’m really looking forward to all these Dodger prospects having a real shot at becoming solid major league players either with the Dodgers or with another team via trades. It should be a fun season. And, I’m OK if they should fall short of the playoffs in exchange to find out if all these rookies can be successful major league players. But, I don’t see that happening unless the injury bug hits the team hard.
Happy New Year to everyone. All good health to all and your families for 2023.
Carry on.
I am looking forward to seeing and rooting for Outman in CF.
I think Vargas will hit in the MLB but am anxious about his defense.
I think Lux will have a great year and his defense at short won’t take away from it.
I am least comfortable with Muncy at second base and would like to see how the lineup would perform with him batting 9th. He walks a lot and that drives up his OBP and last year he looked at too many hittable pitches to justify him hitting in a traditional RBI spot in the lineup.
Thompson had reverse splits so he might be a platoon candidate with Taylor in LF. That would still give Taylor innings at short and second base as needed.
Pitching and defense might not be as good as the offense. It will be fun to find out until it isn’t.
Thanks for taking the time to put up a great Post B&P.
So 2 weeks ago, when I was in Vegas, the over under for Dodgers 2023 wins at the Venetian was 101.5.
For a team not expected to be the World Series front runner, I’d say that’s still some serious respect for the Dodgers.
FYI–Mets were 89-0 when leading entering the 9th inning last year so if they overpayed Diaz you can see why they did.
Great analysis! These numbers sure paint a different picture than what the journalists and emotion led fans see. Plus another difference is that all this OPS is more evenly spread out through the lineup instead of being so top heavy like last yr.
There’s every reason to hope this will be another great year!
B&P: This is an extremely well thought out and reasonable analysis. I am in agreement that this team has a chance (and probably will be) to be better than last years. I also agree that 111 wins again is probably not reachable. MLB.com has an article by Anthony Castrovince where he makes 7 predictions. He picks us to not win the west but to beat the Yankees in the WS.
I am personally more excited about this upcoming season than I have been in a long time. I live in the Phoenix area, not too far from Camelback Ranch. If anyone is coming in for spring training, let me know. I would love to meet some of you.
I agree with most of this and hope you are right on the rest.
Billy McKinney and Tree Trunks Calhoun signed minor-league deals with the Yankees. Remember the fans who mocked the Dodgers when they signed McKinney?
There was a Miggy Vargas sighting at the Ravine. Among the coaches working with him is Dino Ebel. He has been there and working out the entire offseason. As far as I can tell, he is the only player there… right now! He is HUNGRY!