Good Lux or Bad Lux?
This is the fourth straight Spring Training where Gavin Lux has an opportunity to win the 2B job and for the 4th straight season, Gavin Lux has failed to seize the day. In Spring Training of 2018, Gavin had no chance at winning a job, and he had only 4 ABs but he did have 2…
This is the fourth straight Spring Training where Gavin Lux has an opportunity to win the 2B job and for the 4th straight season, Gavin Lux has failed to seize the day. In Spring Training of 2018, Gavin had no chance at winning a job, and he had only 4 ABs but he did have 2 hits. In 2019, he would have been a longshot to win a spot, but in 20 ABs he only had 3 hits (.150). 2020 was better and he had 33 ABs with 8 hits (.242). That wasn’t enough. In 2021, Gavin had 51 ABs and had 16 hits (.314) and then proceeded to hit .179 in March and April. In 2021 he had two good months and 4 bad ones.
This Spring Training is more of the same. Gavin Lux has had 16 ABs and 2 hits (.125) and to compound, his lack of hitting is his inability to complete routine throws with any precision whatsoever. I know that Gavin Lux was a Top Prospect and has been for a few years now. I know a few of you are predicting (actually you are praying) that he is going to have a breakout year THIS year. I confess that I have been Cold-Hot-Cold-Hot and back to Cold with Gavin. His throwing issues are certainly mental, not physical. He seldom has a “clean” throw from 2B and I think it eats him up mentally all over the field.
Those of you who are predicting great things for Gavin, right about now, are hating on me for suggesting that he is a bust, except that you know it too. Look, I would love to be wrong on this one, but what I see with Gavin Lux right now is a “deer in the headlights, lack of confidence, what happened” look. Admit it! I happen to think that his only chance at greatness is to ditch the infield and play the outfield. I think he has good instincts and his speed will play up out there. His throwing yips are in his head and he needs to turn the page. Barring a total final week of him going 12 for 12, I do not think he makes this team. I think he needs to go to OKC and learn to play CF… actually all of the outfield positions.
Look, I do not know if Gavin Lux will ever reach his potential, but if you do what you have always done, you are going to get what you have always got. I say “Do something different.” Going to OKC to play CF is something drastically different. Now, I am pretty certain that some are going to say that Cody Bellinger should go to OKC and learn to hit too.
To that, I am going to respond that Cody has actually already done it in the past. Gavin has not… at lest on the MLB level. In 2017 Cody hit 39 HR as a Rookie, slumped to 25 HR in his sophomore year, and then was the NL MVP in his 3rd year with 47 HR and OPS’ed over 1.000. Typically, only a handful (or less) of players do that. Cody is in elite company, no matter how bad he sucks right now. I always say that “If you have done it before, you can do it again”… it just does not guarantee it! Cody probably has a month or six weeks to get it together… if not, maybe Gavin will be Good Lux by then.
Could it really be that the Yips have derailed Gavin’s career? I mean, do I really have any insight or inside information into this? Not really, except that I am pretty at ready “body language.” I think it’s worth a try to see what can happen by making the switch. Playing at this level is hard – very hard. If something is standing in the way of success, maybe a change of scenery (I.e., position) will work.
If I was going to keep another 2B, it would be Eddy Alvarez – he deserves a shot! He’s 32 years old and one heck of an athlete, but he has been on fire this spring. It probably won’t happen, but it would be a cool story. Alberto is absolutely on the team, so there is that, but Alvarez is a switch hitter. His odds are long, but he has a shot. Jake Lamb is a feel-good story, but they can’t keep him and Rios… Can they? Someone needs him…
The Price is Right!
David Price says he feels great. He says that normally his arm is “sore” in Spring Training, but that is not the case this Spring. Juan Toribio of Dodgers .com wrote this:
Dating back to 2011, Dodgers left-hander David Price said he has a two-week period in which he feels pain in his throwing elbow. It’s not an injury, per se, but it’s a level of pain that usually sidelines him after his first live batting practice session.
That routine was no different this season for Price, who called the process of getting back on the mound “a grind.” After throwing a bullpen and live BP session during the start of camp, Price’s elbow began to hurt. He had to stop his buildup process due to the pain.
Usually, during a six-week Spring Training, Price would still have time to be prepared for a full starter’s buildup. But because of this year’s condensed Spring Training, Price, who hoped to be built up to five innings before the end of spring, is now behind schedule. Over the last five days, however, Price was able to throw multiple bullpen sessions, an indication that he’s fully healthy again.
“I got through that period and now everything feels good,” Price said. “To go out there and throw the ball with conviction, just playing catch and to be able to work on stuff in bullpens. That makes it more enjoyable and makes it easier.”
Obviously, he is not built up as a starter as yet, but he could be rather quickly. He looked very effective in his one inning on Wednesday. There is a lot to like about Price right now, but also a lot to find out about Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson… and I won’t even mention Trevor Bauer! Pitching… especially bullpen pitching is very fickle… that’s why Andrew is hoarding them.
Featured Prospect: Landon Knack
Landon Knack was born in Johnson City, Tennessee, (sounds like a Darius Rucker song) and played college ball at Walters State Junior College before transferring to East Tennessee State. He is a 6′ 2″ RHP who weighs in at about 220, and for most of his college career he had average stuff to go with very good control. However as he matured and his “man strength” surfaced he turned his average fastball into a plus pitch that hits 98 MPH with late movement. That jump made his changeup a great swing-and-miss pitch. His fastball and changeup are his dominant pitches but there is ample reason to believe that he will master the slider, while the curveball is only a “purpose” pitch. The curve needs a lot of work…
To say he has great control is a huge understatement. He pitches quickly and efficiently and is continuously around or in the strike zone. His delivery is easy and repeatable and he has the “look of a #3 or #4 starter”… especially if he can refine his slider. With his impeccable control, I would bet that he can. In 2022, with Great Lakes and Tulsa, he was 7-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He struck out 82 in 62 IP and only walked 8. That’s sick! He strikes out hitters and also induces a lot of ground balls.
He is Major League Ready RIGHT ABOUT NOW, but it would be as a bullpen arm. The best thing that could happen to Landon is for him to pitch all season at OKC, master the slider and improve the curve and then move into the Dodgers rotation in 2023. What actually happens depends upon others’ health. Stay tuned: Landon has a Knack for pitching! Here’s some video from the AFL last Fall.
Dodgers Farm Systems Rankings
- Baseball Amerca has them at #8.
- The Athletic has them at #1; and
- MLB.com now has them at #5.
I agree with all that and took a lot of flack for several months until the new rankings came out. All I will say is “I told you so!” 😉 However, I really missed on Kody Hoese. I now think he’s a bust, but you never know – progress is not linear!
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Discussion (103)
Disagree, not disagreeable
It’s funny with Lux. He seems to have less of a problem throwing accurately from SS then 2nd base. There’s not a lot of velocity from short but he has a quick release and it’s much more accurate. His bat has the potential to play up at 2nd but as an outfielder not so much. I think he’s definitely going down and needs to find his stroke. If we sign TT then his Dodger future looks like a utility role. What’s up with Pepiot? I haven’t seen him but everyone talks about his stuff but the results don’t seem to be there.
I thought progress wasn’t always linear but for some players it is?
Well, if we’re going to start calling players a bust based on Spring Training stats, we’re in big trouble this year. Lux’s throws, to me, look more like a problem with his footwork and not “the yips”.
Pollock, JT, Muncy, Pillar, Bellinger, Lux and Betts are all guys hitting below Mendoza’s mark. Maybe they should cut enough bait to make a lineup out of Outman, Busch, Vargas, Rios, Alvarez, Lamb, Freeman, T Turner, McKinstry Barnes and Smith.
Lux had just 7 errors in 471 innings at shortstop last year, which isn’t horrible for a 23 YO that hasn’t played the position in the previous two years at the MLB level. To me, that isn’t a guy with the yips. That’s a guy who feels comfortable at SS and doesn’t at 2B. Just for comparison’s sake, T Turner had 5 errors in about 450 innings at second base last year yielding nearly identical fielding percentages.
Maybe Lux will ultimately bust. Maybe Bellinger is in the same boat. Maybe Mookie will never be the same, he certainly looks lost right now while doing his best Carl Crawford impression. Or, maybe the Dodgers should have had some urgency going into Spring Training.
When I look at the guys who are hitting worse than Mendoza vs. the guys hitting better, it seems like this might be the BBRVS effect. It seems like mostly prospects and newcomers are hitting and guys that have been under the tutelage of Brant Brown and Robert Van Scoyoc are in the red.
So what’s going on with so many hitters on this team? Out of rhythm due to slow playing Spring Training? Bad approach due to our inexperienced hitting coaches? Burnout from playing deep into the post season every year?
Spring training….stats mean nothing unless……you are a guy like Lamb, trying to impress, an older rookie, trying to move up on the depth chart. How do you think McKinstry feels about now? Made the team out of spring training last season as the 26th guy. Started of like a house on fire, hit L.A.’s first homer of the year, even though it was an inside the parker. The team has played 14 games. Less than half of a normal spring training schedule. And no one has played all of those games. Only six players have appeared in double figure games. The player appearing in the most games is Alvarez with 12. He is tied with Rios for the team lead in homers with 3. So spring means something to a guy like that. Betts has played in 5 games and had 14 at bats and someone is judging him on those stats? Ridiculous. Lets see how they play once the bell rings. Lets see what kind of at bats they take over the weekend against the Angels. With spring training being over and the season just about to start, they will be bearing down just a little bit more. One thing a lot of you forgot about Price, experience. The guy knows how to pitch.
Jacob deGrom Undergoing MRI After Experiencing Shoulder Tightness
By Steve Adams | April 1, 2022 at 7:28am CDT
The Mets have officially scratched ace Jacob deGrom from today’s scheduled Grapefruit League appearance, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. He’ll instead undergo an MRI after experiencing tightness in his right shoulder while playing catch yesterday. While there’s no indication yet that deGrom is dealing with a major injury or expected to miss significant time, the mere fact that he’s been scratched in favor of
Well they better find some urgency one week from now! I sure hope that Mookie is healthy
Possibly the best thing for Lux is a change of scenery in a trade package at the deadline for some of our club’s needs. Some players just can’t handle the bright lights of the big city markets. He might flourish in teams like KC, Baltimore, Miami or Pittsburg. Being from the East Coast, I’ve seen many players come into New York with the Mets and Yankees and never make it, Let’s hope I’m wrong with Lux and he goes to Oklahoma City and comes back an improved player. His chances on making this 28 man roster are slim and none based on his Spring performance.
Mark these are good points about Lux. He is still young and talented so I’m not giving up or trading him. He has nothing to prove in aaa.
When he plays ss he looks much more comfortable than 2nd or outfield. TT is going to get a bulk of the innings this year. I don’t see the Dodgers giving T Turner a long huge contract like Seager got this year. If Lux can get his average in the 275-280 range this season as a bench piece I see him inheriting the SS job next season. He will blossom into the player we all expected and hoped for.
A spitball idea…Lux, Rios and a top 10 prospect for Bieber and then Price/Bauer to the Mets for Cano and a top prospect?
Dodgers trade AJ Pollock for Craig Kimbrell
Dodgers, White Sox To Swap AJ Pollock For Craig Kimbrel
By Steve Adams | April 1, 2022 at 11:12am CDT
The Dodgers and White Sox are in agreement on a trade sending outfielder AJ Pollock to Chicago in exchange for reliever Craig Kimbrel, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link).
LF Candidates:
Rios
Lux
Alfonzo
Taylor
Alberto
Outman
Busch
Vargas
Pages
Alvarez
Pillar
Lamb
Keith Law picks Gavin Lux to be a Breakout Candidate in 2022:
Open on theathletic.comhttps://theathletic.com/3223869/2022/04/01/mlb-players-to-watch-keith-laws-5-candidates-for-a-breakout-season-in-2022/Who you goona’ believe…. me or Keith? 😉
“I don’t care about ST stats”, “progress isn’t linear” except for Gavin Lux, it seems that doesn’t apply to Lux.
Just go ahead and put Vargas out there in LF. He’ll figure it out eventually! His bat is real.
Can Lux, Alberto hold it down for a while?
I really liked AJ, I like Kimbrel better.
I’m worried about left handed pitchers.
Craig Kimbrel’s 2021 season was a Tale of Two Seasons:
With the Cubs:
36 IP
64 K’s
0.49 ERA
0.70 WHIP
With the White Sox:
23 IP
36 K’s
5.09 ERA
1.217 WHIP
Which one will the Dodgers get?
Sorry to see AJ go. Always liked the bat. I’m sure he’s shocked.
I’m guessing you get the Cubs version of Kimbrel, not the one with the White Sox. Sure they’ve been looking at him closely this spring. He’s elite, if he’s right.
Pollock had a lot of big hits over the past few years. No idea who steps into the role. Chris Taylor plays more left?
Expect Gavin Lux to play well. But who knows, maybe he ends up in a mid-season trade.
Should, if Kimbrel performs, make the bullpen even stronger. The trade certainly offers up more opportunity for other players.
Well, Andrew Friedman is definitely working all the angles and possibilities. No question about that. That move came out of left field.
I like this trade. Kimbrel contract is for two seasons. This should give Lux more playing time in left. Graterol should be ready to be the closer in a couple years.
Wow about AJ for Kimbrel. I don’t think anyone saw that coming. It gives a Dodgers a little insurance in the pen. The only real guy I thought to be a lock to be dependable is Treinen. Sure, there are a lot of guys who could potentially step up, and the Dodgers pen has the potential to be really solid without Kimbrel, but as we’ve said so many times from our arm chairs here, you can’t depend on a reliever being good. They’re erratic. This is why they’re relievers and not starters. Prove me wrong, Brusdar.
Still, the Dodgers lose AJ’s right handed bat. CT3 can’t fully replace his offense. I suppose it’s something that can be absorbed with the historically loaded lineup the Dodgers now have, but still.
England, USA, Iran in a World Cup group, oh god.
What no North Korea! I will be sorry to see Pollock go. When healthy he’s a stud and gave us a great year in 21. Good guy, good ball player. Wishing you the best AJ! Just when you think it’s not Lux’s time he gets thrown a lifeline. I think they keep Taylor at 2nd and give Lux a shot in left especially against righties. Better defensively.
Another great read in TheAthletic. This one about Darren Ruf and Farhan.
For Giants president Farhan Zaidi, Darin Ruf was Max Muncy before Max Muncy… A story about Darin Ruf, who quietly became one of the most productive hitters in the league. But it’s also a story about how the Farhan Zaidi-led Giants value players and trust their acumen to keep finding them on the margins.
Open on theathletic.comhttps://theathletic.com/3223279/2022/04/01/for-giants-president-farhan-zaidi-darin-ruf-was-max-muncy-before-max-muncy/?source=emp_shared_articleOne of the First Baseball World problems the Dodgers have now is that Lux’s failure to deliver on the ML level has really decreased his trade value. He was supposed to be the next in a line of that includes Joc, Seager, Belli, Buhler, Smith… but he hasn’t come close.
Perhaps some GM out there with an SP like Montaz or Manea might believe that all Lux needs is a change of scenery….. I’m still bummed that the Jays scooped up Chapman and dashed my blockbuster schemes.
CT3 will be the LF and Lux the 2B, if Lux can’t beat the lefties then he will be in a platoon with Alberto, this move shows the confidence the Dodgers have in Lux.
Now the bench is: Barnes, Alberto and Ríos, there are places available, it opens an opportunity for: Pillar, Álvarez, Lamb, etc.
I wonder if Pollock thought Roberts was pulling an April Fools joke on him when he was told about the trade. Hope Kimbrel works out and his problems with the Sox was because he couldn’t get his adrenaline going as a setup guy.