Good Lux or Bad Lux?
This is the fourth straight Spring Training where Gavin Lux has an opportunity to win the 2B job and for the 4th straight season, Gavin Lux has failed to seize the day. In Spring Training of 2018, Gavin had no chance at winning a job, and he had only 4 ABs but he did have 2…
This is the fourth straight Spring Training where Gavin Lux has an opportunity to win the 2B job and for the 4th straight season, Gavin Lux has failed to seize the day. In Spring Training of 2018, Gavin had no chance at winning a job, and he had only 4 ABs but he did have 2 hits. In 2019, he would have been a longshot to win a spot, but in 20 ABs he only had 3 hits (.150). 2020 was better and he had 33 ABs with 8 hits (.242). That wasn’t enough. In 2021, Gavin had 51 ABs and had 16 hits (.314) and then proceeded to hit .179 in March and April. In 2021 he had two good months and 4 bad ones.
This Spring Training is more of the same. Gavin Lux has had 16 ABs and 2 hits (.125) and to compound, his lack of hitting is his inability to complete routine throws with any precision whatsoever. I know that Gavin Lux was a Top Prospect and has been for a few years now. I know a few of you are predicting (actually you are praying) that he is going to have a breakout year THIS year. I confess that I have been Cold-Hot-Cold-Hot and back to Cold with Gavin. His throwing issues are certainly mental, not physical. He seldom has a “clean” throw from 2B and I think it eats him up mentally all over the field.
Those of you who are predicting great things for Gavin, right about now, are hating on me for suggesting that he is a bust, except that you know it too. Look, I would love to be wrong on this one, but what I see with Gavin Lux right now is a “deer in the headlights, lack of confidence, what happened” look. Admit it! I happen to think that his only chance at greatness is to ditch the infield and play the outfield. I think he has good instincts and his speed will play up out there. His throwing yips are in his head and he needs to turn the page. Barring a total final week of him going 12 for 12, I do not think he makes this team. I think he needs to go to OKC and learn to play CF… actually all of the outfield positions.
Look, I do not know if Gavin Lux will ever reach his potential, but if you do what you have always done, you are going to get what you have always got. I say “Do something different.” Going to OKC to play CF is something drastically different. Now, I am pretty certain that some are going to say that Cody Bellinger should go to OKC and learn to hit too.
To that, I am going to respond that Cody has actually already done it in the past. Gavin has not… at lest on the MLB level. In 2017 Cody hit 39 HR as a Rookie, slumped to 25 HR in his sophomore year, and then was the NL MVP in his 3rd year with 47 HR and OPS’ed over 1.000. Typically, only a handful (or less) of players do that. Cody is in elite company, no matter how bad he sucks right now. I always say that “If you have done it before, you can do it again”… it just does not guarantee it! Cody probably has a month or six weeks to get it together… if not, maybe Gavin will be Good Lux by then.
Could it really be that the Yips have derailed Gavin’s career? I mean, do I really have any insight or inside information into this? Not really, except that I am pretty at ready “body language.” I think it’s worth a try to see what can happen by making the switch. Playing at this level is hard – very hard. If something is standing in the way of success, maybe a change of scenery (I.e., position) will work.
If I was going to keep another 2B, it would be Eddy Alvarez – he deserves a shot! He’s 32 years old and one heck of an athlete, but he has been on fire this spring. It probably won’t happen, but it would be a cool story. Alberto is absolutely on the team, so there is that, but Alvarez is a switch hitter. His odds are long, but he has a shot. Jake Lamb is a feel-good story, but they can’t keep him and Rios… Can they? Someone needs him…
The Price is Right!
David Price says he feels great. He says that normally his arm is “sore” in Spring Training, but that is not the case this Spring. Juan Toribio of Dodgers .com wrote this:
Dating back to 2011, Dodgers left-hander David Price said he has a two-week period in which he feels pain in his throwing elbow. It’s not an injury, per se, but it’s a level of pain that usually sidelines him after his first live batting practice session.
That routine was no different this season for Price, who called the process of getting back on the mound “a grind.” After throwing a bullpen and live BP session during the start of camp, Price’s elbow began to hurt. He had to stop his buildup process due to the pain.
Usually, during a six-week Spring Training, Price would still have time to be prepared for a full starter’s buildup. But because of this year’s condensed Spring Training, Price, who hoped to be built up to five innings before the end of spring, is now behind schedule. Over the last five days, however, Price was able to throw multiple bullpen sessions, an indication that he’s fully healthy again.
“I got through that period and now everything feels good,” Price said. “To go out there and throw the ball with conviction, just playing catch and to be able to work on stuff in bullpens. That makes it more enjoyable and makes it easier.”
Obviously, he is not built up as a starter as yet, but he could be rather quickly. He looked very effective in his one inning on Wednesday. There is a lot to like about Price right now, but also a lot to find out about Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson… and I won’t even mention Trevor Bauer! Pitching… especially bullpen pitching is very fickle… that’s why Andrew is hoarding them.
Featured Prospect: Landon Knack
Landon Knack was born in Johnson City, Tennessee, (sounds like a Darius Rucker song) and played college ball at Walters State Junior College before transferring to East Tennessee State. He is a 6′ 2″ RHP who weighs in at about 220, and for most of his college career he had average stuff to go with very good control. However as he matured and his “man strength” surfaced he turned his average fastball into a plus pitch that hits 98 MPH with late movement. That jump made his changeup a great swing-and-miss pitch. His fastball and changeup are his dominant pitches but there is ample reason to believe that he will master the slider, while the curveball is only a “purpose” pitch. The curve needs a lot of work…
To say he has great control is a huge understatement. He pitches quickly and efficiently and is continuously around or in the strike zone. His delivery is easy and repeatable and he has the “look of a #3 or #4 starter”… especially if he can refine his slider. With his impeccable control, I would bet that he can. In 2022, with Great Lakes and Tulsa, he was 7-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He struck out 82 in 62 IP and only walked 8. That’s sick! He strikes out hitters and also induces a lot of ground balls.
He is Major League Ready RIGHT ABOUT NOW, but it would be as a bullpen arm. The best thing that could happen to Landon is for him to pitch all season at OKC, master the slider and improve the curve and then move into the Dodgers rotation in 2023. What actually happens depends upon others’ health. Stay tuned: Landon has a Knack for pitching! Here’s some video from the AFL last Fall.
Dodgers Farm Systems Rankings
- Baseball Amerca has them at #8.
- The Athletic has them at #1; and
- MLB.com now has them at #5.
I agree with all that and took a lot of flack for several months until the new rankings came out. All I will say is “I told you so!” 😉 However, I really missed on Kody Hoese. I now think he’s a bust, but you never know – progress is not linear!
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Discussion (103)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Major League Baseball is expanding the information process of its replay-review system.
The league announced Friday that umpires will be equipped with on-field microphones to inform the stadium crowd and television audience of an official replay decision.
Typically, throughout his career, Craig Kimbrel has had ERA’s in the 1.00’s and 2.00’s EXCEPT in 2019 and 2020 where it was 6.53 and 5.28.
In 2021, he was great the first half and bad in the second half.
I hope he works out and doesn’t scare us more than Kenley.
The active roster as of right now has 12 position players and 22 pitchers. 3 outfielders, Taylor, Betts and Bellinger, 2 catchers, Barnes and Smith, and 7 infielders, The Turner boys, Muncy, Freeman, Lux, Rios and Alberto. 7 right handed hitters and 5 lefty’s. But by May 1 at least one more bat needs to be added as they will only be able to carry 13 pitchers after that. That is 3 bench players going into the season unless they add one of the non roster guys. Kimbrel will wear # 46. Pollock gets his # 11 with the Sox. I think there are moves on the horizon. Lineup is now RH heavy. Conforto is still out there as a free agent.
Something tells me this is not the last move AF will make. I know the Padres are talking with the Pirates about Brian Reynolds. Could AF jump in there?
March 21st 2,09pm
I was thinking that AF may not be finished yet, as he appears to be in win now mode, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he could swing a trade for Craig Kimbrel, who is surplus to requirements with CWS, and is due what Kenley just got paid.
Would certainly give the Pen a formidable look.
Some wise Dodger fans around here.
What would it take to get Brian Reynolds?
I guess it shows us that Kenley might have soured a little bit with the Dodgers. They let him walk and traded for a guy making the same money and traded a good outfielder to get him. I think AF might have answered Mark’s question about Kimbrel.
How good is Kimbrel In holding runners?
From MLBTR:
It’s at least worth noting that L.A. just traded its left fielder and has a right-handed-heavy lineup at a time when former All-Star outfielder Michael Conforto and his left-handed bat are still looking for a landing spot.
Really bad news for the Mets with deGrom to miss significant time. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.
MLBTR: The Athletics announced that right-hander Grant Holmes has been outrighted off the 40-man roster, and been assigned to Triple-A Las Vegas. Such a move was necessary to remove Holmes from the 40-man since the 26-year-old is out of minor league options.
Holmes was the 22nd overall pick of the 2014 draft, and a regular on top-100 prospect lists for his first few minor league seasons. Originally selected by the Dodgers, he was dealt to Oakland as part of a deadline-day swap in 2016, as the A’s picked up Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Jharel Cotton from Los Angeles in exchange for Josh Reddick and Rich Hill.
The trade is correct for the Dodgers, they fill a team need, plus CT3 is a very similar player to Pollock plus he provides better defense and durability, I prefer CT3.
The Dodgers with the team they have don’t need Lux to be a star, although he will be, they just need him to provide good defense at 2B and good ABs in the back of the lineup.
If we look at his AB he does a good job and his contacts are tough, he’s been unlucky that his hits don’t find the holes, in his first full season if Lux has a positive defense and goes .255-260, 12-15HR, 65-70 RBI, 12-15 SB that’s very good at #9 in the lineup, Lux will be better than those numbers, he’ll be fine!!!
I know some fans are happy to see AJ go. I heard all of the negative stuff back when he first joined the team and was oft injured. But in 2020 and 21, Pollock was a huge part of the offense. Last season he had the highest BA among the regulars. I know Trea won the batting title and was real good as a Dodger, but he played a little over 50 games for LA. Pollock hit .297, by far his best in LA. He contributed 21 homers. And had a playoff game where he hit two. He, Bellinger and Taylor were the only Dodgers who had a nice playoff run. Now if they get the Kimbrel of the beginning of last season, it is a great deal. If they get the White Sox version, they got fleeced. I think Kimbrel will really want a new start and to get the bad taste of the second half out of his mind.
If you can put up with Bellinger than you can give Lux a chance
I’m not a big fan of WAR, but Lux earned 1.6 last year while playing injured for half the season. He’s playing in his age 24 season this coming year, so he’s still extremely young.
Just to put that into perspective, Bryan Reynolds (who seems to be this year’s Mitch Haniger) didn’t start his career in the MLB until his age 24 season and never performed close to what Lux did when he was in the minors. Speaking of Mitch Haniger, who everyone wanted the Dodgers to trade for a couple of years ago, didn’t start his career in the majors until age 25.
To say that Lux hasn’t shown you anything, makes me question how much baseball you watch. The thing is, Lux hasn’t played that much. With just over 500 AB’s stretched across 3 seasons, none of us have seen enough to pass judgement on him.
As far as Pollock goes. It’s really simple. Lux is a better defensive outfielder right now, only playing a handful of games, based on range and arm. CT3 is a way better outfielder than Pollock. So, if you were planning on letting either Lux or CT3 play outfield, Pollock was gonna DH. When you have Muncy, Rios, JT all playing the same position, Pollock wasn’t going to DH very often. Add in the possibility of Lamb, and you have a real dilemma.
Pollock never did much in the offseason for us. It’s time to let him go, just like it was time to let Kike and Joc and Seags go. To get a guy that struck out 100 in 60 innings for him was a godsend. Right now, I trust Kimbrel much more than I trust Kenley. But, I’m not sure how we’re going to do against lefties.
Maybe Rios impressed enough to force his bat into the lineup. His career splits are pretty nuetral.
The Dodgers are about $3M over the upper CBT penalty level.. Next trade they make might be to get payroll below $290,000,000.
Gavin Lux
MLB
Fielding% at SS: .966
Fielding % at 2B: .972
MILB
Fielding at SS: .937
Fielding at 2B: .974
… and he’s better at SS?
No yips on his throws from SS. Aren’t you the one who said he can’t play 2nd because of his yips? I think if he starts hitting then the throwing issues disappear. Give him some consistent playing time and see what he can do. I think that’s the plan
Well… I don’t see how the Kimbrel deal as anything more than a minor endorsement for Lux. To me, the best lineup right now has Lux on the bench. Consider….
Mookie RF
Freddie 1B
Trea SS
Muncy 2B
Justin 3B
Smith C
Rios DH*
Taylor LF
Belli CF
*And when Barnes catches, Smith sees some DH action.
An alternative lineup would have Muncy at DH and a platoon of Lux/Alberto at 2B. But I’d rather see both Muncy and Rios swinging their bats. Who doesn’t want to see Rios in the lineup?
Now, of course, Belli should and could move to the heart of the line. But based on recent performance, batting 9th is where he belongs. At least he’s a superior defender, and he’s obviously proven what he is capable of, while Lux has proven…. what?
Lux may yet prove his worth. If he gets it together, great. But until he proves otherwise, he’s a backup middle infielder and leftfielder. He’d be rotated in and out, but I doubt we’ll see a even a true platoon. Pinch hitter against righties, and pinch runner–and both roles are less important with the DH. Is Lux a better defender that Alberto? Beats me. But I’ve never heard that Alberto has the yips. And Alberto might well be the better hitter.
It would be great if Lux lives up to the hype–but he’s had plenty of opportunity. I think he’ll have a decent career as a UT guy, but I don’t see the stardom that was projected.
I assume the contracts will allow the Dodgers to put Lamb, Piller and Alvarez in OKC if they don’t make the OD roster. That’s a pretty good group of veterans.
Your stats tell me he’s an average fielding 2nd baseman and above average SS
I am sure AF is a lot smarter about baseball personnel then an old duffer like me. I am just a fan – since 1958 but I still believe the eye test is the most imporant aspect of the game. IMO, AJ Pollock was the most consitently productive outlielder last – way beyond my favorite player Bellinger and exceeding the perfromance of Betts. From an offensive point of view, AF traded away his one of his most consistently productive hitters. I am concerned that the Dodgers just lost one of their of their most reliable run producers,
Eddy Alvarez has been one of the Dodgers’ better hitters this spring, going 8 for 23 (.348) with three home runs (tied with Edwin Rios for the team lead). Alvarez is a switch-hitter capable of playing multiple positions. But Hanser Alberto was signed to fill that utility role and Roberts acknowledged a three-week spring training is not long enough for someone like Alvarez to “win a job.”
“I don’t see him breaking camp with us and I think he knew that coming in,” Roberts said of Alvarez, who signed a minor-league contract with a non-roster invitation to big-league camp. “But to put eyes on him every single day, he’s going to help us win this year. He’s going to help us this year at some point in time. I just can’t say when.”