For MiLB Players The Organization Matters

The Dodgers are 8 games in front of the Padres and 9.5 in front of the D-Backs. LA’s run differential is +143. No other team in the West has a positive number. Only the Braves at +113 and the Yankees at +103, are over 100. The Rockies have scored 100 runs less than they have allowed. The Yankees and the Rays who are tied atop the AL East, have the biggest lead in MLB by 9 games over the Blue Jays. LA and Atlanta have 8 game leads.

Another fine report, Jeff. I was bullish on Crochet. I would have much preferred a blockbuster for Crochet than a Big Fat Check for Snell. Crochet might be hurt now–but it’s not like Snell has been a study in durability. Crochet is much younger and proved his talent as the Cy runnerup to Skubal. I knew that to get Crochet, the trade package would have to include Rushing and other nice pieces. Looking at the trade now, the other pieces might have been Alex Freeland, a plum OF prospect (Hope?) and a ML-quality reliever such as Henriquez or Klein. (I’d have offered Ward or Outman, but everybody seemed to think they had cooties so maybe Chicago would have insisted on somebody with a higher ceiling.) Looking back, would I still do that deal ? Probably. As fans, we are now emotionally invested in guys like Freeland and Rushing. But we weren’t very invested at the time. Crochet was a big prize. Before he got hurt, was an absolute stud. At 26, he’s very much on the right side of 30. Snell is 33 and perhaps working on his last contract. If Rushing had been dealt, the Dodgers might have Feduccia or Rortvedt as Smith’s backup. Instead of Freeland, HS Kim would be on the job, with Miggy Rojas and maybe Espinal as support–and Edman still on the way. Noah Miller might be knocking on the door. There are, obviously, no perfect equivalents to the Red Sox offer, but the Dodgers certainly had prospect depth to pull it off. (Why didn’t AF? No doubt they considered it, but my sense is that AF had already targeted Snell–they have a long history– and he’s obviously shown a propensity for writing Big Fat Checks than dealing prospects.) Did the White Sox fleece the Red Sox? I don’t think so. If Crochet was healthy, he’d be the ace of the staff. The trade might called a win-win. Look at this way: As a Dodger fan, would you rather be waiting for Crochet to get off the IL or for Blake Snell? Both fine pitchers, sure. But I’d rather have the young guy. Yes, I like blockbusters. I would have overpaid for Mason Miller rather than let the Padres get him. I’d have tried to swing a deal for Byron Buxton (who is having a great season) than commit $240 million to Kyle Tucker for 4 years. Assuming he stays healthy, Tucker’s enormous contract might keep de Paula and Sirota down on the farm for an extra season or two. I’m not saying I want Tucker to tear his ACL….. but what if he has meh production while dePaula or Sirota are winning the PCL MVP??? Instead of bobbleheads, perhaps the Dodgers could market voodoo dolls. As Jeff’s analysis illustrates, the Dodgers farm system is so stacked that it makes it hard for talented guys to move up. Several players seem blocked and deserving of more opportunity. One of the benefits of a blockbuster is that it can ease the logjam. Great to see Ryan Ward proving that he belongs. Still a shame that Conforto and his contract was blocking him last season.

Absolutely a Great Post, Jeff. I, too, was puzzled by the Tucker acquisition. The only thing that makes sense is that maybe the Dodgers thought that by adding Tucker this year, it would ensure another World Championship, giving them three in a row… and then sell the team. Mark Walter and Magic Johnson will be 67 next year, Stan Kasten will be 75, and Peter Gruber will be 85. Combined, they own under 30% of the Dodgers, while Todd Boehly and Bobby Patton allegedly own a combined 40% of the team. Walter holds 100% of the voting control of the Dodgers. The Dodgers have a valuation of over $9 BILLION. Could this be an exit strategy before they sell the team? The Dodgers generated a staggering $1.1 billion in gross revenue last year. They are one of the only franchises outside of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys and European soccer giants like Real Madrid to ever cross the billion-dollar annual threshold. If a multi-billionaire desperately wanted control of baseball’s most valuable brand, a final, premium transaction figure would settle somewhere between $11 billion and $12 billion. I could see Apple or Amazon buying the team… or could Elon Musk, as the world’s first trillionaire want it?

Kim is tearing it up in OKC. Just under 800 OPS and hitting.383. looks like he got “fixed” by the coaches. To bad we already have a SS hitting.186. /602 OPS. Love Mookie and all he has been for the Blue but something has to change and tough decisions upcoming. I don’t think anyone has an answer but once the Boo Birds start to serenade Betts, it will pressure management. Let’s hope he turns it around before the AS break. One suggestion would be platooning him with a lefty to reduce his presence in the field.

Management wasn’t pressured to bench Conforto, so as long as we are winning I wouldn’t expect many changes

Mookie will be fine. And he’s still a top-notch shortstop. And he has a runway as long as the Transcontinental railway. The only thing that could possibly happen is him getting bumped down the batting order a little further.

Mookie will be fine. And he’s still a top-notch shortstop. And he has a runway as long as the Transcontinental railway. The only thing that could possibly happen is him getting bumped down the batting order a little further.

Settle down it’s the PCL

Agree with Kevin. Thinking these prospects can hit MLB pitching is a stretch, and the Dodgers know when they’ll be ready. Tucker filled a need and it cost zero young talent. Instead of labeling him a blocker, it should be preserver. This season may be last in which the Dodgers can spend freely. Next season and beyond will require young talent. Tucker’s value will be determined in the Fall when he has oppt’y to produce under the bright lights of the playoffs. The Dodger brass no doubt was concerned about a repeat of what they saw in the WS. A lot of strike outs and declining stars. Finally, next season there could be 1-3 OF positions available for our touted prospects. This assumes Teo getting traded to an AL team were he can be DH, Call moving on, and Kike not on the roster. In one year’s time, the conversation may be, ” I wish we had OF prospects that can field and hit ML curveballs.”

With 7 years left on a multimillion-dollar contract, hard decisions are not going to be made. As far as Kim tearing up the PCL, that is AAA pitching in a hitter friendly league. Don’t put to much credence in that. A lot of players who hit .300 plus at AAA, hit MLB pitching at about .240.

So those Dodger prospects who are hitting .300, and some even less, would only hit .240, or less, in MLB? That’s everybody. Trade them all now, win the WS and let the incoming ownership deal with the new CBA.

Great piece. Lots to think on: 1. Ehrhard is looking ready. Maybe set him free in exchange for a reliever. 2. JDP looks like Bonds when he makes contact. 3. Enjoying the young RH thump we have in Shelton/Harlan/Morales. 4. Sirota better not get a look in the bigs because he might not come back. Trading Teo at some point before his contract’s up is an option. 5. Tucker’s getting a lot of flak and deservedly so. But a lot of that has to do with how good our prospects are performing. It’s hard for me to read that part of the equation negatively.

You can say that again!

There IS nothing negative about this. It’s not a problem. It’s an opportunity in drag!

They are never going to platoon Mookie.

I can understand your agreement with Kevin’s statement about PCL pitching. We have all been disappointed in the past with highly touted Dodger MiLB OF prospects who have failed when promoted. But, to say: “Thinking these prospects can hit MLB pitching is a stretch” suggests that hitting very well in AAA isn’t much of an indicator if they’re MLB ready. Then what the heck is the reason for playing at OKC? I can understand the prospects in high A or AA. The comment – “the Dodgers know when they’ll be ready.” I ask, do they? So, many failures in the recent past. Ryan Ward demolished AAA pitching for 2+ years before even put on the roster. Andy Pages has been the lone success story in the past several years. With the logjam throughout the system of outfielders the FO should know who they feel are the top 2-3 and trade most of the others. Waiting for openings in the current outfield and not reducing the numbers could lead to “Ryan Ward’ situations. It’s not fair to the players. Look what it might have cost Ward in MLB playing time and money. Next season there may zero OF openings more likely than not. Teoscar could be traded and that would open up one spot. Ward may be the player that replaces him if he can continue doing well and is not traded. I doubt the FO is going to add a prospect on the 26 man to have them sit on the bench. Call seems to be a nice 4th OFer and is cheap. Kiki’s status isn’t going to affect the OF spots. Edman will be the super utility guy and can play the OF if needed. Kim is, also, an option. The Dodger past of many failures from there OF prospects when promoted your opinion on their future success could be valid. I feel the number of the current crop of OF prospects seem to be much better than in the past. But, like they say, they’re all just prospects right now.

I think Ward is a success story just for making it. I can’t see him starting a postseason game for us so anything he provides now is gravy. Conforto was a whiff and the less said the better. Tucker is still the best option for this year and this is the year that matfers. Bat him 7th in the postseason and hope he finds his swing. His ability to take walks remains a strength. Freeland’s getting tons of reps and showing he’s a bug leaguer. I love his defense at 2B. Kim looks to be weaponizing as a supersub for 2027. Rushing getting his chance too and running with it. We coukd honestly see him start a postseason game with Smith available to pinch-hit late. I call that ideal. Mookie has already helped transform this entire org. Three rings, a culture king, loved by fans. He’s already made his chops. When a better SS option becomes clear, that conversation can be had. Maybe bat him lower though. Still think the bullpen gets a makeover by October. Will we see River Ryan there? Wrobleski? So much success in the pitching department without Snell, Glasnow & Diaz. Go blue

Prospect evaluation and progress are frequently a “guess.” Take Andy Pages: 2021 – At A+, he hit .265/.933 OPS/31 HR (438 AB) 2022 – At AA, he hit .236/.804 OPS26 HR (487 AB) 2023 – At AA, he hit .284/.925 OPS/3 HR (Injured – 109 AB) 2024 – At AAA, he hit .356/1.084/8 HR ( 101 AB) 2024 – At LA, he hit .248/.712 OPS/13 HR (403 AB) Look at him now. Progress is not linear and seldom predictable. He played very little at AAA because I believe the PCL hurts hitters. I believe Sirota and DePaula will be every bit as good as Pages, but it won’t happen their first year… at least it is unlikely. Tibbs numbers are likely “skewed.” Not saying he’s not goood….

Your probably right Bear. Same goes for Tucker. We got him for 3 years and he isn’t tradable. My point on Kim was that he was sent down to fix a few swing flaws. But he did have options left so he went down on that reasoning. His defense was excellent and his speed helped ignite a few rallies. He will probably be trade bait and I hope he gets somewhere he can get a chance to play.

As MT has stated many times in the past, relievers are untouchable one season and just awful the next. The Dodgers aren’t waiting for a complete season. Their BP is doing this in the first half of a season. Talk about going from the penthouse to the outhouse within 2-3 weeks is eye opening. Yesterday was better. Those called upon, except for Edgardo Hernandez, did well. As it is during a long season with every player. Hopefully, the recent poor performance is behind them. Count me in the group who are down on Tucker. It’s gotten to the point where I feel sorry for him. He looks like a defeated player these days. I don’t think he has the makeup to be successful and live up to his outrages contract. It sort of reenforces the reason the Cubs didn’t resign him. He has zero charisma and shows no emotion in his play. He rarely hits the ball hard. HIs outfield play started out OK. I didn’t understand the criticism of his defense initially. But, now I do. His throwing motion is odd and arm is average at best. Like Phil Jones mentioned the other day, he’s our Hunter Pence. Pence had the craziest hitting and throwing motions. But, he was a hell of a ballplayer. I believe the front office did a poor job of investigating Tucker’s personality. If they did at all. I think it was known that he didn’t want to be in the spotlight or be the face of a franchise. Did they do an in person interview before signing him to a $60M a year contract? I don’t blame Tucker. He figured with all the stars the Dodgers have that he could get lost in it all. And, that’s probably true. Except when you look like you should be in AAA the first third of the season. Because he is a Dodger I pull for him every at bat to right the ship, get on board, and help drive that ship to a World Championship. My heart is telling me different though. Is this the most recent above market overpay failure by AF? If so, just add it to the pile along with the contracts Betts, Conforto, Teoscar, Edman, Snell, Glasnow, Scott and Diaz. Carry on.

All the AF failures have led to back to back championships, 3 in 6 years and a very good shot at a 3 peat. What a total loser! And what ever happened to the Cub and Brave dynasties with all their young talent. Please! What he and his team are doing is historical. Stop whining and enjoy the ride!

And how many West titles since 2013!

Tucker should wind up well above average, just based on his history. But I have hard time envisioning his performance ever justifying $60m per year. Right now, he is a middle-of-the-pack bat on the Dodgers. Shohei, Pages, Freddie and Max are all out-hitting him by a wide margin. We look at Mookie and worry that his contract won’t age well–but I fully agree that the Mookie deal has already paid off. In a way, it’s not fair to hammer on Tucker–it’s not his fault he is grossly overpaid. But Tucker is younger than Mookie and after a couple of months I’m already concerned that Tucker’s contract isn’t aging well. When Teo gets back, Ward will likely be sent back to OKC. Edman will be up soon, and he can play OF as well. But Ward’s done himself a big favor with his performance so far. He’s a much better trade chip now than at the start of the season. He’ll have a better chance at a longer career on a small-market team. Right now, Ward has Tibbs, Erhard, Suwinski and Thomas nipping at his heels in OKC, and then the stud prospects in Tulsa right behind them.

If Dolphindude hadn’t said it again, I would have for him.

Dodgers brass saw Pages’s raw talent early and nurtured it. Great arm, potentially great bat, runs well. They knew he’d fit anywhere in the OF. In some ways, i think Pages is similar to Miguel Timmons, I mean Vargas., especially in terms of his hitting ability. The difference, perhaps, is that Dodgers uncharacteristically rushed Miguelito although his defense remained a work in progress. So he wound up back down in OKC. Now Vargas is kicking ass for the White Sox and could join Pages in the all-star game.