Miguel Vargas, Gavin Stone, Diego Cartaya, Gavin Lux, James Outman and many other prospects prove that the old adage, “Progress in not Linear” is so true. Miguel Vargas had succeeded and mastered every level where he played… except on the MLB Level. Of course, he could play the “broken finger excuse card” but there are no excuses. It is what it is and your stats tell who you are. Miguel Vargas did not cut the mustard when the opportunity was presented.
Of course, he’s not alone. Gavin Stone was the Dodgers Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2022 with a combined 1.48 ERA over A+, AA, and AAA, but at AAA in 2023 he had a 4.74 ERA and a 9.000 ERA for the Big Club. But, he worked on his game and is now looking like a permanent part of the rotation. Progress was not linear. I am sure you get sick of hearing me say this, but if there is one major thing I have learned about baseball prospects is that Progress Really is not Linear!
James Outman and Gavin Lux have had success on the MLB Level, but only to regress. Does that mean that they will never be what we expected? Absolutely not! It’s just who they are now. Gavin Lux appears to be improving, while James Outman frequently looks lost. Diego Cartaya is beyond horrible, but one can look at each player’s respective underlying talent and realize that this may just be a “plateau” on their way to getting better. I am not giving up on any of these players. Progress is not linear.
Everyone has their own path. Andy Pages will not hit .308 this season, but he is right about now. How will James Outman respond if he is sent back to OKC? How did Gavin Stone respond? He went back and fixed things and then came back a new pitcher. James needs to do the same, and if he is the guy I think he is, he will make lemonade from this lemon! Luxie is coming out of his slump on his own, but I think James is going to have to return to OKC. The best prospect in the game (Jackson Holiday) was sent back after looking overmatched – he will be back soon.
It’s time to do whatever with CT3 and/or Outman. The definition of insanity is doing what you have always done and expecting different results. Some of these players will never hit LHP. I listened to about a half-hour discussion on MLB.Radio yesterday asked why many LH hitters cannot hit LHP, and they all believe it goes back to their youth and the lack of many LHP. It was a fascinating discussion. A former player was asked why they just did not leave a player in to learn how to hit, and he explained it like this (I am paraphrasing): “So he gets called up as a rookie, and he has a .750 OPS against RHP, but a .580 OPS against LHP. You continue to let him play, and in year two, he’s at .620. In year three, he’s at .680, and by year four, he is over .700, but he cost you a lot of games in learning to hot LHP. Teams must win now and cannot wait.”
That’s the deal with many LH hitters. That said, these guys are still very valuable. Outman and Chris Tayor need some time to get “fixed,” and I think Miguel Vargas has earned his ticket back to the Show. He has shown up, stepped up, and shut up. He is playing a solid LF. He is getting good jumps and is speedy on the bases. It’s time to call up Miggy, and either Outman or CT3 will have to move. Vargas is a RHH and not a platoon player. I look forward to the call-up shortly.
Barnsie!
Look no further than yesterday’s game, and you will see why Austin Barnes is the Dodgers’ backup, Cather. Gavin Stone’s growth is evident and Austin Barnes is part of the reason. The Dodger pitchers simply trust the Captain, who quietly commands the room and the backstop. They love throwing to him. Austin does not have to put up big offensive numbers when he can help keep the other team from putting up big offensive numbers.
Down on the Farm
OKC BOX – Vargas was 3-5 and Austin Gauthier played 3B and went 2-5 in his second AAA game.
TULSA BOX – Nothing to see here, eccept a single single by Cartaya!
GL BOX – Huebeck pitched 4 strong innings with 6 Ks.
RC BOX – DePaula was 2-4 as was Perez and Patrick Coppen when 5 inning allowing just 2 hits and no Runs while striking out 6.
DSL Bautista – Joendry Vargas played SS, led off and hit a double and HR as he went 3-5 with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI.
Discussion (19)
Disagree, not disagreeable
OK, my turn to brag. I have 15 grandkids, 9 great grandkids with 2 more on the way. All but one live in Reno where we live and they all live within 10 minutes of our house. I’m truly blessed to have them in my daily life as well as being a life long Dodger fan. My parents had season tickets for 35 years so I spent alot of time at Dodger Stadium. I still watch every game and start my mornings reading what Mark has to say. Life is good!
CT-3s deal isn’t close to the worst contract in Dodger history. The reasons are simple. His ability to play multiple positions and give the regulars a day off. He has had some physical issues in the last two seasons, but still managed to play 245 games. His OPS was way down last season, but in 22 it was close to his career mark. He has been valuable in the playoffs and made several game saving plays in the field including throwing a Padre runner out at the plate. Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones, Hector Olivera, Yasiel Rivera, Manny Ramirez’s deal when he resigned, Darryl Strawberry, Don Stanhouse, Dave Goltz and Darren Dreifort. All were terrible contracts. Jones and Schmidt the worst of the bunch.
I remember when some fans were hoping that Yelich, a SoCal guy, would get traded to the Dodgers. Surely the Dodgers could have delivered a better package.
I think there’s a lesson in some of these big trade packages: most prospects just don’t make it big. Hugging prospects can be a mistake.
The Dodgers gave up 5 players to get Machado as a rental. Of the five, I think two made it to the majors, and only Dean Kremer has really been successful–a mainstay of the Orioles rotation. (Not a bad deal for the O’s since Machado would have left regardless.)
The Dodgers dealt three prospects for Darvish–and only Willie Calhoun has had extended playing time the majors, none of it particularly impressive. Another, Brandon Davis, is back in the Dodger organization in Tulsa.
AF has had some masterful deals. The best are win-wins. Eager to deal Glasnow’s contract, the Rays have to be happy with how Pepiot and DeLuca have been playing. (To make room for Kike, The Dodgers wound up flipping Margot for SS prospect Noah Miller.)
So what would it take to land Tanner Scott from the Marlins, or a really big shark like Mason Miller from the A’s? Again, these Dodgers can get to WS with the bullpen they have. But in the playoffs–against guys like Acuna , Harper, Judge and Soto–it would be better to have the best.
Like Mark said, it is time for KT3 to be a team player and accept a trip to OKC. Take Outman with him and bring up Vargas.
ain’t they special?
Taylor needs to go some where maybe the giants would want hin or As. And Outman needs to go down to OKC an work on some stuff. Problem is are there any options better down on the farm. Is vargas the only hope.
great picture Mark! Paxton. got to see Clayton in Baltimore last year, but couldn’t get close enough to speak to him . He’s so special to me , as are all 7 of my grandchildren! He loves the Dodgers just like i do.
Joendry Vargas is playing in the ACL, not the DSL.
Google ACL Dodgers Roster & Staff
Seems the Dodgers have quite a few standup guys on this roster! For the most part, Baseball seems to be in a good spot right now! There are always a few knuckleheads around but that’s not uncommon. Thank God i quit the NBA. several years ago!! Although i will say this. If i had to watch a pre and half tlme show it would be Barkley and the gang!! ……. Baseball is still the best game around!! But the broadcasts and announcers have gone to pot!! I thought Willie Nelson might appreciate that one! Is book about Clayton in stores yet? Want to buy for my Grandson, who by the way is left handed and struck out 10 Tuesday!! He’s only 10 so the Dodgers will have to wait!!
I’ve really grown to love and respect Mookie.
The long exchange between him and Miguel Rojas was something to behold.
The humility he showed to Rojas in that extended between innings schooling was something to behold .
No Ego, just a true professional wanting to get incrementally better by leaning on a teammate.
Those are the things you can’t put a price on.
Question: is it allowed to move the starting catcher to DH, say in the 7th or 8th inning of a not-close game, and bring in the backup catcher to catch the rest of the game? Over the course of a season this might be helpful in keeping Will Smith rested. Just a thought.
Giants put Soler on the 10-day IL retroactive to the 5th of May, so he most likely will miss the series next week. Rendon put on 60-day IL by the Angels, and they made a trade with the Braves for infielder, Luis Guillorme. Then right after the Braves traded for Zack Short from the Red Sox. If the Dodgers bring up Vargas, he is not going to be the everyday left fielder. Right now, the only two outfielders playing every day are Pages and Teoscar. And with Heyward probably coming back sometime next week, left field will be Teoscar’s bailiwick, and right will be a platoon position. If a lefty starts, then Vargas would play left. Next year, after Hernandez has left the team, then Vargas will probably be the primary left fielder. Right now Vargas would be a victim of a roster crunch, at this point, there really is not a spot for him on the 26-man. As I see it, Taylor really has nowhere to play if they call up Vargas except occasionally giving an infielder an off day. He really should bite the bullet and allow LA to send him to Arizona.
Taylor trudges onward because of his contract, but at this point, it probably takes a whole lot more time than the Dodgers are willing to afford him in his quest to be a ML-capable hitter again.
Surprised the Dodgers put Vargas at the DSL again. he has nothing to prove there after last years performance.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Know it’s early, but isn’t sweet looking at the standings in american league west and seeing the aaassstros behind the A’s?…..The Nationals @ .500 and tied with the NY Mets, and the Cardinals in last place in the central! Easy being a Dodger fan isn’t it? …. On to San diego, they will see Darvish , but miss Cease. Go Barnes!!
It’s great to see the starters going 7 innings and more.
One of my peeves has been the practice of pulling SPs too early, and then hoping that none of the four RPs the Dodgers end up using has a bad day.
One question: With Buehler back and Miller due before long, what happens with Stone? He is certainly pitching like he belongs. Perhaps a six-man rotation?
Progress is not linear. It can also become asymptotic. A good example is the Marlins trade of Yelich. Brinson, the 13th ranked player never reached his potential. Harrison has now gone back to college to pursue a football career. None of the players the Marlins traded for had a successful career.
Copenhagen looks like a man among boys.
Thursday Dodger Minor League Schedule
3:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Maddux Bruns) vs. Lansing (Jake Garland)
4:35 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Ben Casparius) at Sugar Land (Misael Tamarez)
5 p.m.: Tulsa (Kendall Williams) at Midland (Brady Basso)
6:30 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Jose Rodriguez) at Visalia (Jacob Steinmetz)
Ben Casparius former UCONN Huskie pitcher from my great state of Connecticut will be making his Triple-A debut after getting promoted on Tuesday.