It all started with this question on QUORA:
Why is Dodger Manager Dave Roberts’ claim that if there is a full season and playoffs, the Dodgers will win the World Series complete nonsense? Fred Owens, Senior writer for www.TomahawkTake.com wrote this response back on March 27, 2022:
“It’s not complete nonsense to say you aim to win the World Series, but it is complete nonsense to make his statement a guarantee.
Postseason play is a crapshoot. While adding playoff games is exciting for the fans and good business for owners, it has little to do with having a roster that looks good on paper at the beginning of the season or ending the season as the pennant.
The Roster:
The Dodgers have a formidable roster, and I expect them to win their division, but it’s hardly the unstoppable beast media portrays it.
Justin Turner is 37 and makes the list of the top third baseman based more on his bat than his glove.
Cody Bellinger was an MVP but had a horrible 2021. I expect him to bounce back, but what if he doesn’t?
Since A.J. Pollock joined the Dodgers in 2019, he’s suffered a series of injuries and earned the title of injury-prone. Last season, he had his best year at the plate since 2017 but played only 117 games, missing time with a hamstring injury. He plays at 34 this year. Which is more likely, more injuries or a great season?
Mookie Betts was once one of baseball’s elites and is still among the top-ten players in the game. However, the hip injury brought him down from a six-win player to a four-win player; what if the hip causes more issues as the season wears on and he tires?
The Dodger rotation is Walker Buehler and a series of question marks.
The Dodgers jerked Julio Urias around so much last year it’s a wonder he knows where his locker is, much less his role on the staff. He should slot in as their number-two starter, but did they damage his arm in their futile attempt to win the series in 2021?
Clayton Kershaw (34) is back, but he’s not the pitcher who dominated the last decade in baseball. If he suffers more injuries, he could well retire after this season. He’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he’s likely a number-three starter.
After Kershaw, the Dodgers have:
- Andrew Heaney (31 in June), who pitched to a 5.83 ERA in 127+ innings last year,
- Tyler Anderson (32), who pitched to a 4.53 ERA in 167 innings,
- swing-man Tony Gonsolin who posted a 2.83 ERA as a starter, but most of those starts were as an opener; he managed only 50 innings in his 13 starts, and
- 36-year-old war-horse David Price earned $32M and threw just over 70 innings last year and earns another $32M in 2022.
Compounding the Dodgers’ issues with starters is the Trevor Bauer situation. MLB will have to decide soon what they will do about the accusations surrounding his alleged abuse of a lady last season. Whatever they decide, Bauer will fight tooth and nail to pitch again. If he does, the Dodgers will owe him $35M for this season and next.
The team lost their closer, and instead of saying the Blake Treinen will fill that role, suggested they might try bullpen by committee, a system that’s worked only for the Rays.
Winning a World Series is extremely difficult.
It was hard to win a World Series before free agency when teams like the Yankees could sign and hold players as long as they wanted.
The Yankees illustrated that it got harder to win a World Series after expansion, despite the ability of rich teams to throw ridiculous sums at players to tilt the odds in their favor.
The 1997 Marlins proved that every additional playoff series creates an opportunity for a team playing well, to upset teams with a better overall roster and win a World Series.
The 2001 Seattle Mariners finished the year with
- a 116–46 record, 21-wins more than the Yankees and 25-wins more than the Indians.
- a +300 run differential, scoring 927 runs while allowing only 627
- The Yankees finished with a +91 run differential, the Indians with a +76.
The 95- win Yankees eliminated Seattle in the ALCS, then lost the World Series to the 91-win Diamondbacks.
In 2002:
- The Braves won 101 games and the NL East,
- The Yankees won 105 games and the AL East.
- The Cardinals won 97 games and the NL Central,
- The Twins won 94 games and the AL Central,
- The Diamondbacks won 98 games and the NL West,
- The Athletics won 103 games and the AL West,
- The 95 win Giants were the Wildcard team and played the AL Wildcard team, the 99 win Anaheim Angels.
- The Angels won 75 games in 2001, the World Series in 2002, and 77 in 2003.
In 2014, the 89-win Royals lost to the 88-win Giants in the World Series.
In 2023, MLB begins a new multi-tiered playoff system that includes six teams from each league.
The single WildCard game is gone, replaced by two three-game series. The winners of those series move to the same best-of-five style series LDS we’ve seen in the past.
The new format would seem to help the Dodgers if they take the division as expected, because the Division winners get a bye in the first round. Whether the extra two days help or hinder is a matter of opinion.
Guarantees like the one made by Roberts get posted on the bulletin board of every team in the race, adding extra incentive to win given a chance to make the person making the statement eat his words.
The 162-game season is a grind. So many things can happen that teams cannot control, which makes guaranteeing a result among the dumbest things a player, manager, or front office can do.“
Yes, what Roberts said was dumb, and just about everything that could go wrong went wrong. Yet, the Dodgers won 111 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs? And that makes Doc a bad manager?
I think it is about time people realized that being a good manager and having a good record in no way is connected with winning a World Series. They are not mutually exclusive, and if fact, they are diametrically opposed. Wrap your heads around it because it’s the truth! This ain’t baseball from back when two teams went to the playoffs. This is the new math, and 5 out of 4 people struggle with math!
I just thought that Fred Owens presented an exceptional argument for Dave Roberts. I happen to agree with it, and blaming Dave Roberts for the Dodgers not winning the World Series is like saying, “If she didn’t say that I wouldn’t have hit her.” “If he didn’t cut me off I would never have chased after him!” “My father is to blame for my problems with anger.”
These are just a few examples of comments made by individuals who blamed others in order to justify their anger and how they expressed it. Get over it. See a shrink, but deal with it!
Have a nice day!
Discussion (24)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I just read on ESPN that 10 MLB umpires are retiring at the end of the month. Seven of them are crew chiefs including, Ted Barrett, Greg Gibson, Tom Hallion, Sam Holbrook, Jerry Meals, Jim Reynolds, and Bill Welke. Also retiring are Marty Foster, Bill Nauert and Tim Timmons. That is a lot of experience. Too bad Angel Hernandez is not one of them. He is by far the worst umpire in the majors. I always felt that Barrett and Reynolds were two of the best. MLB plans on hiring replacements, but the first female ump will have to wait.
Dave Roberts is a very very good manager.
Take the fate JGiradi went thru. Fired after a 12-29 start but the Phiilies with bench coach RTompson promoted to interim manager went to the World Series. Does JGirardi is a bad manager? Not exactly. Girardi had a closer who blew a lot of games. JGirardi had a problems with starting rotation. Had a young 3B who begun the season wit yipps. Had power hitters under performing badly. Sounds familiar??
Happy New Year!
Interesting thread, touches on many issues. I grew up with Sandy, Big D, and Vin, and a culture that I really miss. Of course, the owners controlled the players and took advantage of them, as often as possible. Fortunately that was fixed, but like almost everything in today’s society, it’s gone too far, completely over the top. It’s pretty telling, when the top players are setting up foundations for tax purposes. We all love baseball, that’s why we’re on this forum, so I’ll stay with that, and resist the urge to go off topic. Because if I did, you would quickly know how disappointed this almost 77 year old is, with our nation’s culture and lack of moral and truthful values. Hopefully “honor” won’t be redefined as so much of our language already has been. I should probably stop now, but would like to weigh in on Coach Roberts. I’ve never met the man, but he seems to be a nice guy. His coaching ability, in my opinion, is weak. It is easily visible to anyone knowledgeable with the game. As I have observed many times over the years, his important game time decisions are not only often wrong, and hurt the team … the most problematic is his indecisiveness. He often waits too long, and then it’s too late. I realize that he’s not going anywhere soon, just wish he’d get back to the basics, excellence in the fundamentals, on which the momentum and outcome almost always rest.
I believe this year will especially showcase Dave Robert’s talents. Navigating Trevor Bauer, the new rules, all the young kids getting their chance and trying to meet the high expectations of all the loyal Dodger fans.
If he is able to lead that mix of players in the club house well it should be another exciting Dodger season. The potential is real. A train wreck possible. Doubtful but possible. Injuries can derail even the best of teams. Just look what happened to Max a couple of years ago.
Thank you all for making LA Dodger Talk so much fun to read every day. Totally enjoy the give and take. The perspective of the older guys is truly priceless.
Thanks Mark, Bear, BP and all the poster’s for your great writing.
Go Blue!
My theory on the dodgers if they stay with what they got it won’t be good enough and they will need to make a trade for a consistent player then rely on three rookies to be in the lineup. They either need Reynolds from the Pirates or Addames from the Brewers or O’Neil from the Cardinals to make this team a legit world series contender and have a solid lineup. We all know lux gets back problems Betts gets back problems Taylor gets hurt to. They need another everyday outfielder and then Outman starts some days and maybe he does shine. But if he doesn’t and Vargas doesn’t and everyone says Heyward is done that’s to many ifs I think so they need another player that people go wow they got him.
Unless the Dodgers find a way of filling some obvious holes they will need to catch lightning in several bottles to win the NL West and win a World Series.
What holes? Didn’t they already fill them? It’s almost like the entire baseball world is okay when a team makes room for a top prospect, but somehow that changes with the Dodgers?
We let go of three bats from last year’s team. A SS that had an 809 OPS. A 38 year old Third Baseman that OPS’d 788 and a Center Fielder that OPS’d 654. Those are not overwhelming numbers especially when the best was a shortstop that’s not an excellent defender.
They replaced the offense lost from Trea Turner with JD Martinez counting on a bounce-back year. Doesn’t that seem reasonable enough?
They’re replacing an old, slow JT with the best third base prospect they’ve had in years. Doesn’t that also seems pretty reasonable?
Belli set an incredibly low bar on offense from CF the last couple of seasons. They’re replacing him with a Center Field prospect that hit as good in AAA last year as Belli did when he broke into the league. This all looks very reasonable to me. What am I missing?
On top of that, they have other rookies that could make it to the bigs in Amaya, Busch and Pages. It seems all very reasonable to go with a youth movement at this place and time since they have one of the top two minor league systems in baseball that seems very heavy on position players that are close to the big leagues.
I don’t believe the anti-hype. This is a very good team and it’s pretty easy to see why they did what they did this offseason.
I think Eric summed it all up:
And when I say expanded playoffs I mean the wild cards. It used to be the best teams in there divisions only got to the playoffs. Now some shitty team can win the world series.
Back in the day, there was a 50/50 chance the best team would win the World Series.
Eric summed it up and his statement says “shut up. There is no argument!”
Dave Roberts, the Rodney Dangerfield of mlb managers. At least with some fans. Evidently management feels differently. But of course AF
You are the Clown when you deliberately misquote me!
I said: I think it is about time people realized that being a good manager and having a good record in no way is connected with winning a World Series.
Get the quote right, you stupid Moron! THAT IS NOT WHAT I SAID!
Your argument is so pathetic that you have to resort to mis-quoting what I say.
Happy 83rd birthday to Sandy Koufax. The best pitcher I have ever seen in my lifetime.
As for Roberts, who this particular post is all about, I have never felt he was a very good in game tactician and manager. And although he has made some very questionable moves in post season and sometimes during the season, you cannot ignore the fact that his teams consistently win. That in and of itself takes leadership. He has done something no other Dodger manager has ever done, his teams have won 100 or more four times. They won 217 games in the last two seasons and lost 107. Alston’s teams won 100 once, same with Lasorda. Dave has a different managerial style than either of them. Alston led by sheer will, Lasorda with praise when needed and a firm cussword when that was needed. All of them have made post-season decisions that cost them crucial games. Alston bringing in Williams in the 9th inning against the Giants in 62. Lasorda pitching to Jack Clark. He just signed an extension, I doubt very seriously, no matter how many fans bitch about him, that he is going anywhere anytime soon.
The expanded playoffs and free agency destroyed baseball. That’s not a joke I’m serious.
IF Ohtani wants to leave the Angels & would consider signing an extension with the Dodgers, make a trade & get him now.
Cassidy, you can’t compare the Dodgers with the Angels. Maybe Ohtani would put the Dodgers over the top. Maybe he’s the difference maker. Of course, the key is to keep developing young pitchers and hitters. That’s always been the key. It allows the Dodgers to take risks.
But why does it matter if the Dodgers do something long term that doesn’t make sense in the final four or five years as long as they win big in between? Maybe it’s a big win for the team in other ways like merchandising and sponsorship. The focus here is always on players, payroll and the farm system. But the Dodgers are brilliant in terms of marketing and revenue generation.
Look at it another way, we’re not going to live forever. Do we really care about the last years of a long term contract? We’re also talking about the team with the highest revenues in baseball and the organization continues to push those revenues higher.
You can call me Robert but I have been known by plenty of nicknames. Brooklyn to The Catskills to Cincinnati and home in Denver
Mark what you created here is a dodger blue lifeline of true DODGER FANS. So I wish us all a healthy year and watch the Dodger’s bring up the farm and let the kids play too! I think AF is smarter than me. High integrity signings Betts and Freeman and the rest of the gang! Next up!
I am a therapist and the issue with Bauer is that we could easily keep him under one condition that HE OWNS THAT HE PUT HIS SEX LIFE IN FRONT OF 500 MILLION PEOPLE. OOPS! iF THE GUY HAD ENOUGH PERSONAL STRENGTH TO TAKE HIS OWNERSHIP AND CONTRIBUTION IN THE ROLE IN HIS MESS THAT WE HAD TO WITNESS.
iF HE WAS WILLING TO DO THAT THEN I CAN EASILY TAKE HIM BACK AND RALLY AROUND THE FLAG!
i THINK THIS WILL BE A GREAT YEAR
SEE YOU IN SPRING TRAIING
It’s much harder to win 111 games than it is to win a World Series.
Dave Roberts is fine.
Players have to perform to win games, especially in the playoffs. They did not perform when they needed to win.
Unless the Dodgers find a way of filling some obvious holes they will need to catch lightning in several bottles to win the NL West and win a World Series.
Miguel Vargas will need to produce at a high level at third, somebody will need to step up in center field. Uncertainty makes people nervous. Gavin Lux will need to up his game.
A lot of questions. How will they replace Trea Turner’s bat and ability to create run scoring opportunities? That’s a huge loss.
Will they keep Trevor Bauer and if they do, how will the layoff impact him?
Which other rookie or rookies will step up? Will Max Muncy’s bat bounce back?
The strengths would appear to be the starting rotation and bullpen.
The answers may come slowly. Again, if the Dodgers intend to stay under the tax threshold, can that actually be done? Unless they move Dollars in a trade, which player and contract would be on the move.
We’ll soon know if the tax threshold is all that important. Probably not. Make more sense to try to reset the tax the following year. Everybody, well a whole lot of baseball writers and analysts seem to think the Dodgers are trying to reset the tax to set up a run for Shohei Ohtani. Are teams really anxious to spend $400 million on one player? Maybe we should view him as two star players. No question someone will step up, but will it be the Dodgers? Juan Soto is likely to be out there. Which player would make the most sense? Probably the one who can pitch and hit.
If Ohtani could be a difference maker and put the Dodgers into position to win two or three World Series, wouldn’t it make sense to offer a 15 year contract at $30 million plus. Of course that’s crazy, but we live in crazy times.
Everyone’s already forgotten about the guy that you wrote about the other day.
The Dodgers hope to hit the lottery with one of these players, although all are very much long shots and have very little chance.:
Jason Heyward
Yonny Hernandez
Steven Duggar
Trayce Thompson (I don’t believe the mediocre stats he put up last year – can he come close to that again? – I have doubts)
Bradley Zimmer
If one of those players could find lightning in a bottle, it would be amazing, but the odds are better that all of them are gone than if one makes it.
Or you do nothing and the lineup looks like this
Lux ss
Betts rf
Freeman 1B
Smith C
Muncy 2B
Martinez DH
Vargas 3B
Heyward LF
Outman CF
Which lineup looks better the first one or this one if they do nothing the dodgers
This is what the dodgers should do trade with Brewers and the dodgers get Christian Yulich which he can be your left fielder and Wily Adames at shortstop and you give Brewers Ryan Pepiot Outfielder Pages and shortstop the Almanya and dodgers are the stacked and you have Betts every day Freeman everyday Yulich every day and Lux stays at second base. Muncy can play thirs second DH and Vargas you can put him in Center field or Leftfield and you got Outman Heyward Taylor Barnes Thompson Martinez on the bench now that lineup would make sense and are pitching great.
Betts. RF
Addames SS
Freeman 1B
Smith C
Yulich LF
Martinez DH
Muncy 3B
Vargas CF
Lux. 2B
I don’t like Roberts and I’m entitled to my opinion.
Ok. So now we know that Roberts is a good manager and it is monumentally difficult to win a WS, and even if you win 111 games that is no guarantee, bla bla bla. Where I take exception is getting ambushed and humiliated in the first round by a team you dominated all season, and looking clueless and without strategy or inspiration.
Once again I’ll go with AF’s evaluation of Roberts over yours. And my dad is to blame for my sweet disposition
If pulling pitchers too early and overusing your bullpen is good, then Dave Roberts is the best.