Do you Seriously believe that? If you really think that FAZ is really that stupid or if you believe that because it fits your own personal narrative, then you should probably stop reading right about now… because what I am going to say will really piss you off! My 9 year-old grandaughter knows that moving a runner, productive outs and sacrifices are most generally better than strikeouts. Only hitting into a double play is worse than a strikeout… unless there are no outs with a runner on 3B. Any person with half a brain knows that and even Ray Charles can see that!
Do you really think that FAZ believes it OK to have 5 players with more than 100 strikeouts? Guess what, the Red Sox had 6 players with more than a 100 strikeouts? They almost had 7 as Betts ended with 91 strikeouts. Chris Taylor and Max Muncy struck out 33% of the time. Cody Bellinger and Yasmani Grandal struck out 27% and 28% of the time respectively. Matt Kemp and Joc Pederson struck out 21% of the time. Kike Hernandez struck out 19% of the time. As a team, the Dodgers struck out 25.7% of the time (based upon at bats). Do you think FAZ is happy with that? That’s silly question…
Boston’s strikeout percentage is 22.2% as a team. JD Martinez struck out 26% of the time. Jackie Bradley struck out 29% of the time while Devers struck out 27% of the time. Benintendi struck out at about the same percentage as Kike, but it’s what he did when he didn’t strike out that changes everything. Are you starting to catch on? Yes, I would like to see the Dodgers cut down on their strikeouts… and so would Roberts, FAZ and everyone associated with the organization. However, strikeouts happen to every player. If the Dodgers cut down their strikeouts by just 10%, they would be about the same as the Red Sox. However, all of those would not be hits. Assuming the MLB average, that would have added just 36 hits to the team stats. which might have raised the batting average by 1 point… or less. It’s not just the strikeouts. It’s what they do (or don’t do) when they don’t strikeout.
Yes, I think the Dodgers should cut down on strikeouts, but it’s the bat-to-ball skills that the Red Sox do better than the Dodgers. TRANSLATION: They are better hitters! Hernandez and Benintendi strike out about the same percentage, yet Kike’s BA and OB% are considerably lower. And… while I am on this rant, why in the hell is Kike playing? Do you think it has anything to do with the fact he hit over .350 in August and September and was one of the hottest players in the NL? He has sucked in the post-season, but so have a lot of others. He might go 4-4 today.
Chris Taylor is striking out at the same rate as in the regular season, but he is hitting .300 now because he is getting more hits. Is it FAZ’ fault that the Dodgers have six players on the roster who hit .232 or below against LHP? The Dodgers were second in plate appearances this year and first in the number of pitches seen. They struck out 22.5% of the time, while the Red Sox struck out 19.8% of the time… per plate appearance. It’s not the strikeouts… it’s the hits.
The Red Sox had 9 more sacrifice flies than the Dodgers and hit into 11 more double plays than the Dodgers. That’s pretty insignificant. You just keep coming back to the fact that they hit better than the Dodgers… PERIOD! The Dodgers led baseball in walks, but the Red Sox were only 80 behind them. That’s less than 1/2 walk a game.
Realize this: The Dodgers, Astros and Red Sox are at the forefront in the use of analytics. All three teams have rooms full of analyists who comb through and analyze data… data that they all keep to themselves. They all share it with their managers and they don’t have managers who don’t buy into it. That’s part of the reason Mike Scioscia no longer manages. The use of analytics gives managers a plethora of stats, some of which are conflicting, but all of which will help you make wiser decisions that will hopefully work.
Of course, nothing works all the time. One fan may say “It was totally insane to bring in Julio Urias” while others say “Bringing in Julio was brilliant.” It is so subjective and usually depends upon your perspective. That’s why I seldom second guess. Just because it didn’t work, doesn’t mean it’s the wrong decision. However, when Roberts brings in a pitcher who gives up a run or a pinch hitter fails to execute, many often blame Doc. “His stupid moves lost the game.” When someone says “Everybody knows…. blah, blah, blah,” usually means it’s just their opinion… and opinions are like… well, you know what.
I was on the “Fire Roberts” Bandwagon for a while, but I wised up and realized that while I don’t agree with everything he does, he is one damn good manager and has the teams’ respect to a man. I heard David Freese praising him a couple of days ago. Most moves Dave has made in the first two games have not worked… but that does not mean they were the wrong moves. Players have to execute, but it’s easy to blame the manager when they don’t work. It’s human nature to want to villify someone when something goes wrong, but that’s not what we have here. It’s back to that same-old lack of hitting with RISP.
I think FAZ will attempt remedy the situation next year. Write this down: Manny Machado won’t get what many predict and the Dodgers will be players for him. JD Martinz got $110 Million. Is Machado a better hitter? Is he worth $200 million more than Martinez? I think not! He’s younger and a shortstop, but he will fall in the $200 million range. I think there will be major changes this offseason… especially if the Dodgers lose the World Series. You have to wonder what role the hitting coach plays in this. Will Turner Ward survive? The fact that the Dodgers don’t hit as a team with RISP is somewhat systemic!
I could see a scenerio whereby Pederson, Wood, Maeda, Puig, Kemp and Gandal are all gone. I can see a lineup like this:
- Verdugo RF
- Seager 2B
- Turner 3B
- Machado SS
- Bellinger 1B
- Realmuto C (I really think he should be on the Dodgers’ shopping list and they have the prospects)
- Hernandez CF
- Toles LF
Who knows what will happen, but right about now, there’s a World Series to try and win! I guarantee that FAZ is not happy and there will be changes… especially if the Boys in Blue go home without a trophy. Right about now, Striker Buehler needs to put this team on his back and show why he is the Dodgers Ace-in-Waiting!
Discussion (213)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Fuck Muncy, never in doubt, never worried Lol rewatch anyone?
MJ,
Dodgers (Max Muncy) listened to you and scored the run. Poetic justice for Muncy after he missed the walkoff in the 15th. When he hit that one I thought it was gone.
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Now we have to follow this up tomorrow.
Brooklyn
Muncy heard us both, but the first time he just missed!
Brooklyn
He heard us the first time, but he just missed!
Could come from a better guy.
Thank you Max Muncy.
Huge win. For multiple reasons.
Rich Hill vs Sale (?) tomorrow? Let’s get this!
And Dick Mountain will be farm fresh tomorrow!
My guess Eduardo Rodriguez.
Muncy’s is the thee man tonight!!!
Everyone this was worth our wait!
And we burned a few Red Sox’s arms in the process!
Yeah Baby
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7hrs 20 minutes
Watford
1230 am here in Southern California your old haute!
Muncy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Finally! Get the Beatie Boys going
Brooklyn
We have to get tough, Dodgers score some dam runs!
I can’t believe that I might have to miss the end of this to take my kids to soccer practice.
It’s 08.30am here.
Following Dodgers I meant
Why not have Kershaw or Hill pitch instead of Wood. There is nothing to save after this game. Lose this game their out
The Dodgers strategy is beyond idiotic. 50 years of following Roberts still here end of year my Dodger following is over. It is beyond ridiculous.
I’m mean , isn’t going to end well.
At this rate Eovaldi will threw more pitches then Buehler.
Oh my my my. Buehler hasn’t pitched since yesterday, can he come back in.
This isn’t going to well in fear.
Kershaw first guy swinging for base hit. Figures
Take a strike Kike! For fuck sake. With Kershaw on deck try to draw the walk and let him sac you over. Hell I probably let Urias hit after that.
MJ,
I hope they listen to you. Because when I ask them to please score, they don’t.
So wood to come in for Urias. Yikes.
Urias time!
Half the time you can’t get Barnes to take his bat off his shoulder and he swings at ball four.
Dodgers please score!!!
Wow, Maeda contributed big time. Hats off to him.
Now let’s finish this thing. We are in a position to hurt the Sox. Got to win.
Eovaldi has been fantastic and gutsy for the Sox tonight. I would like to see him in Blue next season. I almost feel sorry for the fans back east staying up so late to watch their team LOSE! Let’s go!
Maeda is horrible
Roberts has got to take Maeda out now!
Maida is all over the place. At least he got the out at 3rd.
Uries now. Why wait.
Maeda is the guy I trust the least.
Hawkeye
That is exactly what I thought when Freeze did that!
It last years WS all over again. A first baseman who gets in the way of the second baseman.
Well said MJ, hope
We don’t look back on that.
I would have loved to see Freeze when a runner was in scoring position, instead of Dozier.
I am with you all the way!!!!
I have always said Muncy is sneaky fast!
But it was his baseball smarts that allowed him to score, along with the scary speed of Puig!
Can somebody please let David Freese get an at bat in this game… this is just ridiculous.
So you’re saying there’s a chance!!?
It’s amazing what can happen when a hitter puts the ball in play.
That is why the .06 Rick talked about a ground out toward a run can make a big difference for a team, even though those odds are not much better then a strike out, when it comes to individual stats.
Thank you Puig again! !
I went yes to oh no to yes.
Me too, Kinsler bailed us out. If I was Cora I walk Puig and pitch to Barnes. Cora has burned his starter for tomorrow. Both teams scored on a walk and an infield hit plus an error. Longest WS game in history and I love it but the futility og both teams is epic tonight.
From 0-2 to a leadoff walk by Alexander and he was our big BP addition in the offseason? Listen I’m glad this team went out and got Machado recognizing we needed offense at the break and he would be a nice RH addition, but this team’s offense approach has been horrible all season and especially highlighted in the WS.
Way too dependent on the HR to score and way too many K’s preventing a string of hits and a rally. Team needs Verdugo and his high contact rate next year along with some better OBP players. I’ve seen enough of Keekay, CT3, Puig and Grandal to last me a lifetime.
I suspect three of those four won’t be Dodgers next year. Roberts isn’t going anywhere but he is certainly getting out managed by Cora.
Well, this where the Dodger bats have chance to redeem themselves.
Whoever made the decision to hit Dozier over Freese should be canned.
We were out played, but Robert’s does not belong. How do you ride a guy that chimes in big spots in the reefuslr season and was not even on the nlcs roster. Cora outclassed him, and Boston outclassed us
At every crucial point in this series Roberts made the WRONG and ridiculous decisions, If I hadn’t seen it myself I wouldn’t have believed it was possible.
And the only reason the Red Sox are scoring is because the Dodgers couldn’t find a way to score a single run after Joc’s HR ten innings ago.
I believe this moronic over- use of Alexander should give Boston some runs and end our Dodgers dream. I would write all the mistakes of Robertsthis game but what’s the point. I officially say this series is more mismanaged than last year.
By the way the best hitter of the series Freeze is still on the bench!
A walk, a steal, a dribbler and an error.
.
And people blame Roberts.
I wish only pain for boston.
This is exactly what I was afraid of when they put Alexander on this roster!
He is always giving free bases, and now a free run too.
Our guys are trying to hit one out instead of just getting on base.
Alexander single handedly scored the Red Sox’s run.
He put the lead off runner on base, he bounced a pitch to advance the lead off hitter, then he over threw the ball, to score the run!
And Freeze has not had one at bat yet!
The Dodgers are finding new ways to give up runs
Same old Alexander. 0-2 count and winds up walking the guy.
MJ, it always seems like that, because it is.
Do we have enough pitchers left to only use Madson for one hitter?
predictable end to the 11th, a CT3 K
Barnes needs to hit a walk off homer here because I really don’t want to see Madson pitch.
It seems like most of our guys are trying to hit one out, instead of just getting on base.
I am going to bed. I do not care any more. We have to have the dumbest manager ever. Where is the bench coach. I agreed with the decision to bring in Jansen in the 8th. Then comes the bottom of the 9th with a chance to win? Then Doc has a brain fart.
Cora has used almost his entire bullpen already, all he has left is Hembree and Pomerantz unless he wants to use tomorrow’s starter Eovaldi or Sale. Roberts has lots of options.
Vegas
Pomerantz would be best, since our guys have seen him.
Mark, my comments must go to spam. They do not show up in real time.
Doc should be fired this evening. Do not even sleep on the decision. You bring Freese in because he has WS experience and he uses Dozier.
One run
So instead our left-handed first baseman threw the runner out at the plate from CF.
In my best Ric Flair, “Whoooooooo!”
Thank God Barnes was at home there!
Yes and he used 2 hands on the catch and tag! Nice throw on the fly.
There’s no way Grandal holds on to that ball.
That’s where having a left-handed throwing first baseman makes a difference. Glove comes straight down for tag.
Brooklyn
How about our left handed throwing centerfield?
What is wrong with Freese? Much better hitter than Dozier. I do not know about Doc.
Dozier has been nothing short of terrible. That pitch was right down the middle.
You are so right. Yet he could have used Freeze instead batting sooooo much better than Dozier. The Dodgers needed to end the game there and then. Oh is forgot Doc knows best!
Val9000 – Exactly what I was thinking
Doc just outdid himself! How can any manager (little league up to the majors) be that dumb!
David Freese is on the bench!!!!!!!!
Is Murphy at this game. Seems that everything that could wrong, is.
I like the idea of putting Cody in motion 3 and 2 with 1 out but he forgot it was a leftie on the mound and he got burned. What a brain cramp! Then Grandal walks and here comes Kimbrell. At least he has to pitch out of a stretch.
Good piece of hitting by Bellinger there. Let’s walk this thing off.
Kenley had good stuff. Just made a mistake which is unfortunate because Vasquez want going to hit him. It’s not about Roberts. It’s todays baseball. Only a handful of pitchers were going to get the benefit of the doubt these days and be sent out for the 8th no matter what I think about it.
Hawkeye
Don’t you mean Jackie Bradley Jr?
No Vasquez was on deck. I’m not giving in to Bradley. Not sure Kenley did. Maybe he just missed his spot.
Let’s walk it off on Kimbrell! Your closer/our closer seems fair to me. 5-6-7 hitters up, who is the hero tonight?
Crap they brought in price to face Cody
Dodgers, ONE RUN, please.
Manny swung at ball four there.
It’s not Robert’s fault we managed to only score 1 run. You can’t expect our pitchers to nurse a 1 run lead the whole game against a very good Sox team.
The problem is the hitters lack of production and flawed approach when they step into the box.
Very true. But there’s a reason Koufax, Fernando, and Orel are World Champions.
Yes it is his fault. 200 million payroll. Management totally lacking.
I would keep Buehler.. but put Jensen was good too. Good decision but results.. the fault is for the hitters they dont do nothing…lest go Dogers we need runs
My first reaction is the pitch count loses another game. It’s the the WS damnit. Kenley had good stuff which makes think why throw a cookie with Vasquez on deck. Come on offense.
No reason to take Buehler out. If take out put in Baez. No reason to put in Kendal in 8th. We said this here before HR was it.
Roberts is the absolute worst at managing there is in all of MLB. At the point I look forward to the end.
Is this just what Jansen does in the 2nd game of the WS?
Wow – it only took Jansen 3 batters to lose the narrow lead. Should they have left Buehler out there?
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It ended up not mattering, but I can’t believe that Manny couldn’t run that ball out. That wasn’t a routine infield grounder. If it had been Puig he would have been roundly criticized. Machado hits it off of the top of the wall and only managed a single?
Fuck jensen!!!
And Jansen too…
Everything Roberts does is wrong.
Mark
This is on our players for scoring only one run.
Hawkeye, I can’t argue with that. Guessing I was hoping for a miracle. Just hope Kenley hasn’t had too much time off.
Why did Grandal swing at that pitch? It was a ball out of the pitcher’s hand. Just no need to swing.
The real question is what took the pitcher so long to throw one in the dirt for Grandal to chase.
Wow, no adjectives for the rookie, we have to go to Jansen here in the 8th, this our game 7.
I WOULD PUT BULHER IN THE 8th…jajaja. why not??
I would too
WOW!!!
STRIKER BUEHLER!!!
What the hell Manny? A single? Realy?
Just appreciation for what we are watching from this rookie. I would let him go back out and take one at a time, the chance to go from in to Jansen would be ideal. Last two FB’s 98 and 99.
C’mon boys, Striker is dealin’ get som damn runs!!!
How Buehler has pitched in the playoffs as a Rookie has been very impressive. Especially when you think about the added pressure put on him with the lack of run support.
93 pitches through 6, I let him go another inning even though it’s 3rd time through. Betts just K’d and if he can’t figure him out yet the others might not either. JD can’t catch up to his FB if it’s elevated. Let’s tee off on Kelly right here!
How does this make any sense…
You do pinch hit for Freese against RHP and he’s is batting .273 vs. RHP
You don’t pinch hit for Joc against LHP and he’s batting .170 vs. LHP
Why in the HELL is Taylor going first pitch swing? Stress the damn pitcher out dude! Damn! Pass the baton pass the baton !! Come on!!
7-8-9 hitters up, let’s go Blue! If Yas or CT3 get on just have Buehler bunt, can’t PH for him the way he;s pitching.
Offensive approach,matchup philosophy leading to nobody in rhythm, great pitching has lead to just an anemic offensive postseason. Worrisome to say the least.
Some of these approaches at the plate are just mind blowing to me.
We are down 2 games to 0… this is a must win game!!!
Would I like for Buehler to have less pitches? Yes! But he is averaging 17 pitches and he is still hitting 99. Smoltz and Buck are talking as if he will not get thru 5 because he has thrown too many pitches.
I’d let him go 100 to 110 pitches but Doc has not let him this year-so far. Weak inning for the Dodger hitters.
4-5-6 hitters up, let’s get Ferris/Stryker some more runs! Knock Porcello out and get into their bullpen.
Buehler should throw every pitch inside on Martinez. With his bum ankle it will be harder to turn on the inside pitches.
It was good to see the Dodgers strike first. With their offense we need more runs.
I would love the Dodgers scoring anyway they can, and as often as they can.
Adam
I think that is the first time we have had the lead first in a game!
Would love to see the Dodgers get some run scoring 2 out hits.
Ok WB, huge inning shut down inning would be huge.
Joc jam kids!!!
After that hit by Vasquez after starting the AB at 0-2, it was good to get Betts on one pitch. Still too many pitches. Dodgers need to come out of their hitting funk and SCORE.
5 inning start looking probable, everyone on this team shortens their swing.
Buehler is trying to overpower them which he can do. But this team will battle and foul off 98+ fastballs. He needs to throw more offspeed off the plate to change the look.
Nothing special from Porcello, we should be hitting this guy.
Buehler needs to get his pitch count down. If the Red Sox keep fouling off pitches like they did in the first, that’s going to be hard.
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Also like to see Dodgers put up some runs early, especially if Buehler’s innings are limited by his pitch count.
The first inning is usually his toughest inning.
Not loud enough there, game 7 people, make some noise!!
And Manny let’s show some patience.
Walker settle in, more cutters and offspeed stuff.
Manny got a pitch to hit. He just has to elevate.
I believe in Walker Buehler.
I believe we will win this game.
I believe that being down 2-1, will hurt a lot less than being down 2-0
(Unlike Joe Buck & John Smoltz) I believe that these Red Sox are not perfect and are very beatable.
And I believe that Alex Cora can and already has made mistakes in these playoffs… it just hasn’t cost him yet.
I believe Fangraphs and 538 have it about right that 1 in 10 times faced with this scenario between these two teams, The Dodgers win the Series. Well I m here to tell everyone that we are winning this thing, starting with a 5 to 3 win tonight with Jansen going 2 innings to close it out.
Let Baez be the 1st man up then and go an inning after that. Release the Kracken! All hands on deck, this is the 1st Game 7!
We need to disrupt the sox. Something nutty like knock out porcello in the first two innings. Force them to react and change their plans.
I’m with MJ and others here. I’d like to see Toles given a full chance to
show what he might be. He’s done very little wrong when allowed to
compete this level.
He’s not worth a lot on the trade market, so I suspect he will get his chance.
I too would love to have J.T. Realmuto. Don’t know that Verdugo would have to be part of a package, but it would certainly take more than Ruiz. But don’t think that a young, cheap catcher with lots of promise is not enticing to the Marlins. And a lot would depend on how long the Marlins think it will take them to build a contending team. To paraphrase what Branch Rickey said to Ralph Kiner, the Marlins can finish last with Realmuto or without him. Not sure what package they would accept, but I do not necessarily think it has to include Verdugo.
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But as much as I would love the Dodgers to be able to acquire Realmuto, don’t think that he doesn’t come with a few strikeouts, and he doesn’t walk all that much.
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https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/realmjt01.shtml
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No way in the world I want to see Kike’ and Toles in the Dodgers outfield next year. Kike’ does a lot of good things, but not enough for me to want him in the Dodgers lineup on a regular basis. Fact is, I think he’s done enough, that he could be included in a package that would bring the Dodgers something of value. As for Toles, I’ve never hid the fact that I simply do not have the same confidence that many others have in him. I think at best that he’s a spare outfielder, and maybe a starter for an under .500 team. Nothing more.
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So much for next year. Given my deep blue Dodger bias, I am hopeful that the Dodgers can pull-off a comeback in this series, especially since I’ve seen it 3 times in the past (’55, ’65, ’81), although I can’t really say I was totally aware of it in ’55, when I was only 9 years old (in October), and didn’t go to my first game at Ebbets Field until 1957. Do I think it will happen? Don’t have a clue, and cannot claim to be clairvoyant. Just hopeful.
JT-Real would be a very nice #5 or #6 hitter. I’d try and lock him up for 5 years, so Cartya would be ready to take over.
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OK, Ruiz, Locastro, White and Matt Beaty for him! That’s my final offer… and they would fools not to take it… I might be a fool to offer it…. but they are not my players. 😉
Think Verdugo and Ruiz plus some B prospect.
Two things.
1) The Dodger will win tonight if they score more than 2 runs with Buehler pitching. He well win game #3 and Game 6 or 7.
2) The Dodgers use a left/Right lineup which has players hitting late in the game that are out of sync. The average for pinch hitters is much lower than players that start the game.
Rich
You have my vote!
Rich: Last August (2017) I stood against much of the national tide
and said I doubted the Ds would be champs, in spite of record-breaking
win streaks, Biggest reason for skepticism: who, on the starting staff,
would you be confident would win two games in a seven-game series.
This August, standing against the King of Optimists, I wondered the same
thing. Only this year, there was, IMO, a possibility. Walker. It’s up to him.
I remain skeptical, but at least see a chance.
One more thing, an old complaint. The Ds were heavily disadvantaged by
the weather in Boston. Baseball is, and always should be, a summer game.
It’s nuts that (remember 2008?) its most important tilts are sometimes played
in wintry squalls, especially when one team comes from warmer climes.
Buehler wins Game 3, Hill Game 4, Kershaw Game 5, and Ryu Game 6. See nobody needs to win 2 games.
I’m just sayin’….
Mark
Beer use to be most people’s water, because it was safer, as you probably know.
Yeah, when I go to a restaurant and order a beer, they ask if I want water and I say “NO, I’m trying to quit!”
Now that made me laugh out loud!!
Give me about 45 minutes and I’ll crack one
It would be nice to not make Joe Buck’s or John Stoltz’s day, tonight.
AC,I think you are right about Joc. He will be on the team next year and that is a huge mistake. JT and Manny have the best bat to ball skills on the team. Right behind in my opinion is Verdugo and Toles. Yet the front office and Doc do not appreciate those two. It would not surprise if one or both are traded.
Finally a professional looking lineup tonight. Mark, you aren’t getting Realmuto without giving up Verdugo. Just my opinion.
How about Ruiz, Mitch White and LoCastro?
Not enough
I am just casually reading through all the well thought through comments. Too tired to comment in any detail. However, in looking at all of the statistical comparisons of both teams, I wonder how much the presence of the DH in the AL makes a difference in some of the overall offensive stats of both teams.
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How about if the Dodgers could just catch a flyball. I don’t have stats to back me up but Puig should have caught Martinez ball and the number 9 guy who started the rally. He was positioned poorly and that has led to multiple runs. The Dodgers have been totally outplayed offensively, defensively, pitching, and managing and yet we were in both games. If we could just bring our A game and not beat ourselves we could win the series. It is certainly a statistical longshot but doable. We look like we have never played the game. Maybe Boston is just that good but right now I am not convinced.
L-R-L-R-L-R-L-R-R……….finally
That’s only because the team does not have 8 LH hitters. They only have 3 and 1 SH. So no LH hitters on the bench. Dozier, Freese, Kemp, Kike’.
Tonight’s Lineup:
Pederson LF
Turner 3B
Muncy 1B
Machado SS
Bellinger CF
Puig RF
Grandal C
Taylor 2B
Buehler P
so much win here
ITS GOOD. I JUST would put FREESE INSTEAD OF MUNCY
What is the more difficult course of action?: winning all three in LA then taking one of two in Boston OR taking two of three in LA then winning both in Beantown.
Nothing wrong with getting into the opponent’s heads:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25090984/boston-red-sox-believe-manny-machado-was-relaying-pitches-base
i feel pretty good about winning tonight’s game.
Of course the Red Sox’s numbers will probably regress a little with two outs, but their numbers will probably still be higher then the Dodgers numbers, and most teams, if we don’t do better, or expect better.
i’ll happily take a one-out three-run homer tonight 🙂
Vegas
I have always thought his pursuit to frame pitches, has been part of his issue with blocking balls.
But I don’t understand why it is so hard for him to catch throws from his infielders, and the outfielders.
Although I don’t think it would be easy to catch a one hopper from Puig in the outfield, with a catcher’s mitt.
Val
That sounds a lot like a self fulfilling prophecy.
I am not going to get into 2019 discussions until the 2018 season is in the books. Right now I only care about what this team can do to become more productive.
.
I concur with what Dodgerrick had written, but my observations were probably more anecdotal than an overall comprehensive analysis as Rick provided. It is not the strikeout that is bad, but the timing. The Dodgers struck out 1436 times for the 8th highest number of K’s, while the Red Sox struck out 1253 for 26th. Red Sox make better contact overall. But where it really comes into focus is the strike out rate with RISP and with RISP w/2 outs. The Dodgers seemed to go the opposite direction in this stat. With RISP they struck out 355 times for 5th most in ML, while Boston struck out 300 times for 27th. With RISP and 2 outs, the Dodgers struck out 186 times again good for 5th most, while Boston struck out 131 times for the best in MLB.
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Mark you have previously commented (and rightly so) that the #1 difference between the 2017 Astros and the 2016 Astros was their push to cut back on strike outs. They went from striking out more 4th most of all MLB teams in 2016 to striking out less than every other MLB team in 2017. The Dodgers were more in the middle of the pack in 2017, recognizing and realizing that strikeouts were a contributing factor in their WS loss. And they regressed in 2018.
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I keep reading that the Dodgers have the best talent, and then I read that FAZ and Doc do care if the hitters are striking out. It cannot be both. Either the hitters are not talented enough to shorten their swing or go with the pitch with 2 strikes, or field and front office management does not care about one out vs another. If they did there would be consequences for CT3/Kike’/Grandal/Muncy swinging the same way every pitch regardless of the game situation. This thought process permeates down to the minor leagues. The much-ballyhooed DJ Peters struck out 192 times in 559 PA in the MINOR LEAGUES. And he had the most by far PA than any other member of the Tulsa team. Why? Because he hit 29 HR’s to lead the league.
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As Rick’s commentary alluded to, OPS is the big stat that front offices glom onto. A strikeout does not detract from this stat any more than a ground out or fly out. An out is an out. But the other component is OBP and SLG. The more HRs the higher the OPS. The more walks the higher OPS. Max Muncy was every bit of a Dodger MVP this season. He burst onto the scene and nobody really knew him. With the playoffs, he has certainly been studied much more than he was during the season. For the playoffs he is slashing .194/.370/.361/.731. He has 20 strikeouts in 46 PA. His OBP is up because he has walked 10 times. He still has the great eye for the strike zone, but pitchers are pitching around his sweet spot. As obnoxious as Smoltz is, he has pointed that out on numerous occasions. Pitchers (pitching coaches) have learned how to get Muncy out. He may get his walks, but he is not going to hit as much for power.
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The next time that CT3 or Kike’ or Grandal go up swinging for the fences on three pitches and strikeout, even with RISP, nothing will happen. No Dodger hit 40 HRs or had 130 RBIs as JDM did this year. And yet with two outs and the bases loaded in a tie game, he singles into RF for 2 runs. He took what was given him and did not try to hit it over the Green Monster. Mookie Betts had 614 PA and struck out 91 times. He also walked 81 times (OBP = .438). So for the 442 times Mookie hit the ball, he had a .425 BA. Name ONE Dodger who can approach that bat to ball skill.
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One final anecdotal observation. Many have questioned why Alex Verdugo was not on the post season roster. Outside of JT, Alex may have the best bat to ball skills on the team, but nowhere near the power that FAZ covets. It is the lack of power that kept him off the post season roster. The one comment I will make for next year is I will be very curious as to what happens with Alex. The team cannot keep Joc/Alex/Toles. But do not be surprised if the Dodgers choose to keep Joc because of his power potential.
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One last comment, my observations are not meant to be anti-FAZ. Quite the contrary. I am a FAZ supporter. They have built a great deep and versatile team. But their obsession with power over bat to ball skills may keep them from a WS title for the 2nd consecutive year. That being said, I still pick the Dodgers in 7. The Dodger pitching staff will beat the Boston pitching staff in Game 7.
Lots of great stuff here.
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If I had to pick anything, I’d say Taylor’s swing and miss metrics are amongst the most disappointing transpirings this season.
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I wonder if the Sox’ proficiency with 2 outs will regress to the mean, as the Astros K rate did, next year.
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I also think Verdugo brings a lot to the lineup.
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I’d be surprised in Grandal comes back, so the direction the team goes at C could be indicative of any philosophical change in plate approach from above…
we need grandal tonight
Grandal behind the plate in a must win game scares the crap out of me… where just one passed ball or one dropped ball at a play at the plate could change the outcome of the game.
They have built a flawed, not-so-great, versatile playoff team
for a billion bucks that so far is no match for the Sox. They took
seven games to put away a depleted Brewer team that spends
what – a buck for every three or four they’ve spent. The guys
who took over for Andrew in Tampa won almost as many games in
what may have been MLBs toughest division, while the Ds
struggled to get on top in one of the less competitive ones.
So far, they look to be building, at enormous cost, a new Kastenmobile –
get to the champions round – and fail.
The strikeout is bad much of the time. Occasionally it is contextually neutral;
on rare occasions, better than hitting it hard for a DP.
Gold Glove finalists announced – Dodger have ZERO!
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25088349/finalists-2018-gold-glove-awards
that seems about right
Bellinger could be one if he ever played 1b full-time
turner is very good but Arenado is on another level
if there were a gold glove for a utility man, keekay might win it
maybe muncy could win the honorary “Gold Glove for someone who should be a DH” award. I stay say he could probably play LF and i’d be very interested to see if we consider that in the offseason. failing that, I see him ending up a bit like chris taylor this year: coming off a breakout season but with a true regular position and fighting for an everyday role. but maybe these days there are no everyday players, only an endless series of platoons and match-ups.
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and I don’t care what people say about platoons. they can annoying as a fan and i’m yet to be convinced they work. people can point to stats all they like but the only I care about is World Championships and it hasn’t been proven to me yet we can win one using them. it’s not quite a holy war but it’s a very valid question whether or not we are playing our best players.
Normally I would say big emotional lift coming home and a comfortable win tonight for the home team except what Boston did in Houston which was sweep all three games there. They will be out for blood not a let down and the Dodgers have to match their intensity. Buehler seems to never go more than 85 pitches or so and he needs to make them count. Win game 3 tonight or it gets ugly and the second guessing goes ballistic. Even with a win it’s a tall mountain to climb but our Dick Mountain can do it in game 4. From here on out manage every game like game 7, players play like it’s game 7 and fans root like it’s game 7. 5 game 7’s! The Dodgers can do this and we all know it. They play best when their backs are against the wall and this qualifies. If that means bring your best guy in from the bullpen in the 5th inning then that’s what you do. Worry about tomorrow when it comes but win today!
Caveat: Don’t play like last year’s WS game 7.
ready to run through a wall for you, VD!
If you don’t think that the Braintrust doesn’t mind all of the strikeouts, then they would be different than every other analytically-run baseball team out there. In the event that you aren’t paying attention, the league batting average is lower than it has been since 1972. For the 1st time ever, there were more strikeouts than hits this year league wide.
There are a number of reasons for this phenomenon.
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1- Baseball nerds think that strikeouts are great for pitchers but don’t matter for hitters. Here’s an article from 2013 called How Can Strikeouts be Great for Pitchers but Not That Bad for Hitters? : “This is the easy part to understand, obviously. The more a pitcher strikes out the batters he faces, the less dependent he is upon both his defense and pure dumb luck on balls hit to his fielders. The strikeout is a sure out, the ball in play could be anything.” –
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“Advancing the runners while retiring to the bench and making “productive outs” is preferable to simply retiring to the bench, sure. A ground out is typically worth .06 of a run more than a strikeout. But for some reason, this talking point has become noticeably overstated in baseball circles.
This .06 of a run is therefore a small price to pay when we think of how it boosts the batters production at the plate. If we look at the weighted averages of all hitters from 2002-2012 with at least 500 PA, we find that hitters with the highest strikeout rates have wOBAs just as high as hitters with lower strikeout rates. Moreover, they have a significantly higher wOBA than hitters with lower strikeout rates.”
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2. The next bit is from a St. Louis Cardinals blog addressing the issue of strikeouts. Their analysis? Hi K hitters are better than low K hitters because their slugging % is higher:
“he high K% group averaged a whopping 23.8 K%. The low strikeout group whiffed at a 14.6% rate on average. That is a BIG difference. So which group actually hit better? The high whiff group posted an average 105.4 wRC+ while the low strikeout group put up an average 101.6 wRC+. The whiffers hit better!
The low whiff group posted a higher batting average, but we as educated fans here on Redleg Nation know that batting average is an extremely poor and misleading way to evaluate hitters in modern baseball. The one surprise for me is that the low whiff group had a slightly better OBP as well. Generally speaking, players who strike out a lot also walk a lot. The high whiff group did walk more often than the low whiff group last year (8.3% to 7.3%) but in most seasons the difference is greater. Last year was a bit of an anomaly in that regard. Striking out and walking go hand-in-hand to a large degree. Hitters who go deep into counts tend to both walk more and strike out more. Both require seeing multiple pitches. If you hit the ball early in the count you won’t strike out but you won’t walk either. If you want to be a star hitter you have to walk a lot (or else you won’t have a high OBP) and you have to hit the ball hard (or else you won’t have a high SLG). Making contact isn’t the goal. Doing damage and producing runs is the goal.
Where the high whiff crowd pulls away is in slugging. The whiffers hit the ball much harder than the non-whiffers. It makes sense, the harder you swing the less likely you are to hit the ball, but when you do hit it you tend to do some real damage. Hitters who try to maximize contact tend to be the smaller, skinnier guys who can’t hit the ball very hard, so they try to compensate by at least hitting it more often.
All things considered the high whiff batters out-produced the low whiff hitters. It wasn’t a huge difference, but it was certainly a statistically significant, real difference. Striking out doesn’t make a hitter better, but it doesn’t prevent them from being better either. Don’t worry about the strikeouts, worry about the wRC+.”
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Anyone here doesn’t think that this is exactly what the Braintrust is after? How much do you hear from Roberts talking about “slug”? Or do you remember Zaidi complaining that the Dodgers were losing because they weren’t hitting enough HRs?
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3. Pitchers aren’t really dumb. They know that everyone is trying to hit HRs and have changed their pitching patterns accordingly. Here is a quote from a Washington Post article on the subject:
“In addition, more and more batters are tailoring their swings to hit home runs by launching the ball hard in the air. As a result, pitchers are less likely to stay in the strike zone: As a group they threw 52 percent of their pitches in the zone in 2006 and were targeting the zone just 43.4 percent of the time entering Friday night’s games. Meanwhile, hitters have become less afraid of chasing those pitches. Twelve years ago, hitters swung at 23.1 percent of pitches out of the zone; that has jumped to 29.6 percent in 2018.”
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So pitchers throw fewer strikes but hitter don’t care because they’re trying to hit HRs and strikeouts don’t matter. So the K rate goes up, the contact rate goes down, baseball is an uglier game to watch all of the time.
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4 . The Dodgers had 3.9 AB/K in 2018. League average is 4.0 so they are a little worse than average. Boston is 4.5 (3rd best). Top teams are Cleveland and Houston. Maybe something to learn there?
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5. In short, “Batting average, which is the ratio of a batter’s safe hits per official times at bat, was once one of the chief statistical currencies of baseball. An average of .250 was considered average, under .250 was below average, and .300 and above was the mark of an elite hitter.
But batting average doesn’t take into account extra-base hits, and so production numbers such as OPS, a number that combines slugging percentage (which is similar to batting average but rewards doubles, triples and homers) with on base average (how often a batter reaches base through a walk or hit) make more sense today to talent evaluators. So do sexier data points such as launch angle and exit velocity, which shows the speed of the ball off the bat.
The trouble is that you can have a high OPS, while striking out regularly and hitting for a dismal batting average. Joey Gallo is the poster boy for this phenomenon: the Texas Rangers slugger is considered valuable because he ranked third in the league in home runs with 40 and has a solid .815 OPS. But Gallo had a .206 batting average this season, and struck out an abysmal 207 times while walking on 74 occasions. That means he failed to put the ball in play in nearly half of his at bats this season.
Yes, many MLB front offices have discovered that strikeouts, once a sin across the sport, are no longer a shameful result, as long as the whiffs come in exchange for power and patience.” (from The Guardian)
baseball is so unpredictable. in a binary world it seems the two most likely outcomes are: 1) buehler begins his dodger legend status & 2) we end up facing a near-insurmountable 3-0 deficit.
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in reality, this will probably another “ugly” [to me] game in which starters get taken out early and bullpen/pinch-hit match-dominant the action.
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the media will probably spend a lot of time on the whole AL-with-no-DH aspect. that’s fine. it’s a valid angle. maybe this will only highlight the fact it’s time to have one universal rule governing baseball and two separate ones.
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otherwise, yeah, try to enjoy it folks. it ain’t over until it’s over. just think: tonight could be the beginning of one of the greatest chapters in dodgers history. ya better believe!!!
Dionysis
It is going to be 78 degrees at game time so that is already an improvement.
Aw, shucks (blush, blush, blush). And greatly appreciated you take it
in the mostly-fun sense intended. Good on yer!
See youse all at 8 local.
Mark: There you go again, as an old actor used to say:-).
The Kike’ thing: yes, he could go 4 for 4 today. And the sky over LA
could be filled with rainbows at 5pm local, causing the squadrons of
flyin’ pigs to squeal with delight.
He was unusually good in the time you mentioned. He has,
under pressure, done what he has most often done in his career under
pressure. The odds favored him performing just a wee better than
he has (which has been awful even against the backdrop of all
the other Billion Dollar Boys collective offensive awfulness), but
only that. In short, Kike’ has been himself, true and thru.
And can we blame the FO for all the awfulness? We sure can, and
there’s a few screws lyin’ on the floor if we don’t, especially at or
around the billion mark.
They inherited a flawed playoff team. Four years and obscene numbers
of dollars and moves, they have managed to produce (wait for it!!!) – a
FLAWED PLAYOFF TEAM:-):-).
There was some testimony here a few days ago that the desperate game
7 adventure against a badly starting-pitcher damaged Brewer team was
proof positive that the FO knew what it was doing in the Great Homer
Derby that is today’s game. If so great, why did the Ds need an extra game
dispatch the Rockies? Why did it take seven to take care of the new kids
on the block (who took care of the Rocks in the minimum).
The Ds got very lucky in facing the Braves, and then the Brews – and still
were this close to going home.
Add: you don’t spend a gazillion for an immature crotch-grabber like
Machado. Bases loaded, no one out, and a weak fly to medium center,
scoring a single run, is not the stuff of legend. And that’s mostly been
his contribution since he came – ok, even once in a while good, but
leaving the real game-changer hits at his locker. Save the gazillions
for utterly unpromising Cuban prospects!
One last: I was all for taking Ryu out. He had so many chances to close
that inning and would not/could not. But I shuddered when Madson
came marching in. The computer on top of my head said uh-oh,
with the lately-added data from the night before. Dave’s move should
have been Anyone-but-Ryan.
What sets the greats apart from the mere goods and not-so-goods is
the art of an inning, not the science. As a casual, thoroughly unprofessional
but long, longtime observer, my take was 3 -in-5 he walks Pearce again,
1-in-5 that he strikes out the ever-adjusting Martinez again.
Dave has made these moves time and again now in the most crucial
moments of the most important games. He reminds of Tommy. No
accident, it says in my house, that the Ds last ring came in a year
when every guy in the pen had a career or near-career year right
thru the season, and into the champ series. Whoever Tommy called
was unlikely to fail. Ryan did not fit that description in that moment.
And I claim that as 20-20 foresight:-). You can ask around….
Epic!
I heard somethimng interesting on MLB this morning on the way to work. Jim Leyland said that when you are facing a pitcher like Price or Sale, it’s unlikely you will string together a bunch of hits, so stack your lineup with HR hitters and swing for the fences. Makes sense to me.
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1. Pederson LF
2. Turner 3B
3. Freese 1B
4. Machado SS
5. Bellinger CF
6. Taylor 2B
7. Grandal C
8. Puig RF
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Let her rip!
Yup. Me too! Just see how well it worked against a physically compromised Sale,
and a psychologically fragile Price, to say nothing of the ‘pen for the Sox,
which is their one identifiable worry unit.
Says here they played right into Boston’s hands, in spite of Jim the Chimney’s
suspect take.
Which is nothing to be ashamed about. All season long, the Sox and the
Stros were playing in a league of their own, with an occasional appearance
by the Yanks, and, to a lesser extent, the Indians. Note the absence of a
single NL team.
The Ds could suddenly turn into the ’69 Mets or the ’89 Ds. Chances about
seven in a hundred. But what is happening so far is the best team by far is
playing like it, and one of the ordinary NL “good” teams (a billion bucks later)
is playin’ like its ordinary self. (See extra game needed to squeak by Rocks;
all seven needed to squeak by damaged-on-the-startin’-hill Brews).
Hope we see an excellent, fun game today, and no grabbed crotches.
Mark
You are right, hitters with better bat to ball skills, don’t strike out as much.
And both the Astros and the Red Sox have more of a line up of hitters like that.
We don’t have enough balance in our line up, like you pointed out yesterday.
Mookie Betts was not only the American League batting champion, he hit 30 plus HRs, so he will strike out a little.
But I know you already know that.
Anybody see anything similar to the 2017 WS in these first two games? Biggest one seems to be the Dodger offense has failed to show up again. A lot of other similarities but that so far is pretty glaring. Two years running, why?
Be interested to see any statistics on how well the ‘all righty’ line up has actually performed historically. I don’t like it, but how has it actually fared in games played, and do others use it to the extent we see the Dodgers use it?
2017 Game 1 – Kershaw won 3-1
2017 Game 2 – Lost 7-6.
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Pretty different…
No, we won Game 1 and had Game 2 in hand.
And where were the Dodger bats in 2017, and where are they in this WS?
Realmuto–in a recent fangraphs chat someone posted the average triple slash line for a major league catcher. It began with a .230 and got no prettier from there. Will smith and keibert Ruiz are insanely valuable and I see no reason not to bank one on of them (or both!) Leading us into our next era of success. If we trade a posey/molina type I’ll never forgive us.
I love Ruiz, but he’s two years away. Realmuto is in his prime and Cartya is a better prospect, so I would trade Ruiz for Realmuto. I’d try Smith first, but I’d give up Kaybear for JT. He’s the best catcher in baseball. Cartya would be ready whedn JT hits 33.
Fuck it. Roll with Puig and Kemp. Joc and toles can come off the bench. Say goodbye to Grandal. Forget machado. Keekay back to utility man.
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Cf–verdugo
3b–turner
Ss–seager
Lf–kemp
1b–bellinger
Rf–puig
2b–taylor
C–barnes
Striker–just want to let you know, “Good luck–we’re all counting on you.”
Agree with what you say but Eovaldi pitches right handled. Even Ray Charles can’t see that.
Yeah, that was a dumbass thing I did….
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Don’t tell anyone. It’s our secret! 😉