Dustin May and Clayton Kershaw

I wanted Chris Sale at the 2016 trade deadline when he was burning bridges with the ChiSox. I cannot fault management because he was not traded until the Winter, and I have no idea as to who Chicago was demanding. We can speculate all we want, but nobody here knows.

I was a strong advocate for Justin Verlander at the 2017 trade deadline, but understood why the Dodgers did not want to go over the CBT threshold. I accept that. I was okay with the Yu Darvish trade even thought it did not work out. It was an attempt to get a top of the rotation starter.

I lobbied for Gerrit Cole in the 2017 offseason, and he ended up with the Astros. The Dodgers could have matched what the Astros gave up in the trade if they wanted to. They needed another top of the rotation starter, and Cole was controllable for two years. He should have been a Dodger (as should have been Christian Yelich).

Last year all of the emphasis was on Machado, and rightfully so. The Dodgers hoped that Machado was that RH bat they needed to take them over the edge to a WS Championship. It just did not work out. The Dodgers prospects included may turn out to be good but none will be elite. There is also the possibility that none of them will ever amount to anything more than a reserve at the ML level if they make it that far. Thus the moniker of prospect for prospects. We just never know.

This past winter, I was advocating a trade to get Corey Kluber. Trevor Bauer would have been fine as well, but a two time CY winner and 4 out of the last five years as a top 3 in the voting with three years of control at about $17MM seemed to be a logical pursuit. Only one of the years was guaranteed, so if he failed, the financial loss would have been acceptable. We can never know whether the Dodgers whiffed, because he was not traded, and we do not know how the Indians viewed any potential return.

But many here said the Dodgers do not need another starter because they have Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin in the system getting ready to make a call on the rotation. Great! 2020 and 2021 could look good for the future, but I want to win in 2019.

Some have suggested that Dustin May could make the rotation this year and the Dodgers do not need another front line starter. So I decided to take a little deeper look into how May might be able to help in 2019. Not even the most optimistic fan would ever step out and say that Dustin May is another Clayton Kershaw. It is not FAIR to May to make any such comparison to a future 1st ballot HOF. But I decided to make somewhat of a comparison for two the Texas HS pitchers drafted by the Dodgers.

Kershaw is 6′ 4″ 226 from Dallas, Texas, while Ginger Thor is 6′ 6″ 180 from Justin, Texas (42.5 miles from Dallas).

LHSP, Clayton Kershaw, was drafted in the first round #8 overall in 2006. He immediately was sent to Rookie League and dominated. In 2017, Kershaw moved to Great Lakes and then bypassed High A and went directly to AA (Jacksonville). He dominated at GL, and pitched extremely well for a 19 year old at JAX. In 2008, Kershaw started back at JAX but was called up in May to make his ML debut on May 25 against the Cardinals. Kersh went 6.0 innings surrendering 2 runs on 5 hits, 1 BB and 7 K. He did not get a decision. He made 6 more starts before he was optioned back to JAX until he was called back up for good with a start on July 27.

He was not the automatic CY candidate when he first came up as he finished the season with:

22 games pitched; 21 starts; 107.2 IP; 52 B; 100 K; 4.26 ERA and 1.495 WHIP. Not bad for a 20 year old, but he was not going to save the Dodgers 2008 pitching staff. He did appear twice in the NLCS but was not a factor. His MiLB career went as follows:

Year    Age Level     Games   GS    IP   BB    K   ERA    WHIP
 2006    18  Rookie    10      8   37.0    5   54  1.95   0.892
 2007    19  GL (A)    20     20   97.1   50  134  2.77   1.253
 2007    19  JAX (AA)   5      5   24.2   17   29  3.65   1.378
 2008    20  JAX (AA)  13     11   61.1   19   59  1.95   0.946
 2008    20  LAD       22     21  107.2   52  100  4.26   1.495

So the HOF pitcher had a rather pedestrian start to his ML career even as hyped as he was. Now let’s take a look at Dustin May. May was drafted in the 3rd round, 10 years after Kershaw, and went directly to Rookie League as an 18 year old. While he did not dominate as Kershaw did, he did pitch well in 10 games; 6 starts. In 2017, Dustin pitched primarily at GL but did pitch a total of 11.0 innings at RC. In 2018, Dustin started the season at RC, but was promoted to Tulsa where he started 6 games. In 2019, as a 21 year old, he returned to Tulsa where he is pitching some excellent baseball.

 Year  Age  Level      Games   GS    IP     BB   K   ERA     WHIP
 2016  18   Rookie       10     6    30.1    4   34  3.86    1.352
 2017  19   GL (A)       23    23   123.0   26  113  3.88    1.195
 2017  19   RC (A+)       2     1    11.0    1   15  0.82    0.636
 2018  20   RC (A+)      17    17    98.1   17   94  3.29    1.098
 2018  20   Tulsa (AA)    6     6    34.1   12   28  3.67    1.136
 2019  21   Tulsa (AA)    4     4    19.0    6   20  1.89    0.947

May has had a good start to his career, and undoubtedly will become a very good starting pitcher. Probably a #3, but certainly a potential #2. Although he did not dominate as Kershaw did in the beginning of his career. Kershaw did not burst on the scene as did Doc Gooden or Fernando. He has gone on to have a far better career than either pitcher. Can we expect May to become a better callup than Kershaw was at a similar age in the middle of a pennant race and become a top of the rotation type pitcher, even though he has not performed as well as Kershaw up to this point? I would not expect that he would, but that is sheer conjecture. The FO is supposed to plan for the holes, and for an ownership group with as much wealth as they supposedly have, and with the revenue base the Dodgers enjoy, finance should not be a major consideration, and yet it seems to be the primary consideration.

Maybe May gets a call in May as Kershaw did, and come up full time in July as Kershaw also did, but I would not expect a 21 year old to pitch like a CY candidate in the middle of a pennant race. I would expect him to more emulate how Kersh pitched when he first came up. Is the FO looking for a fill-in to give valuable experience as a 21 year old, or to find a top line pitcher that can help them win this year and not 2021. Are $$$$ going to be a factor? Who is going to be available? These are difficult questions for we fans to answer, but we can have opinions. I prefer the trades in the off-season rather than at the trade deadline. I prefer players to play a full season with the team rather than a couple of months to get acclimated to the new team.

I hope the 4 of Kershaw, Buehler, Hill, and Ryu can pitch all year and be in a groove in October. But I am more of a realist than an optimist, and while I hope that would be the case, it is not likely. It’s fine to want to say that the current Dodger pitching will get it together, but shouldn’t that same expectation be given to other pitchers. I would agree that Corey Kluber has not started out 2019 with much success, but if Ryu or Hill or Buehler or Kersh can get better as the season goes, so can Kluber.

The bullpen questions are even more of an issue. Overall, Dodger pitching is #15 in ERA with 4.24. I am sorry but that is not acceptable for a team that is supposed to excel in pitching to contend for a WS championship. Starters – 3.82 ERA (#11) and bullpen – 4.93 ERA (#25). Yes, good pitching is going to cost prospects. Kimbrel should not be considered until after the June draft, but if he is still unsigned after the draft, and the only consideration is money, I think Kimbrel should get a call. I think Kimbrel would consider helping the Dodgers win a WS and then trying for FA again. But this time be a little more realistic.

I am not at all disillusioned by the start of the season for the Dodgers. In fact, I am quite encouraged as I did not expect the team to be .500 at the end of April. It is also much too soon to be thinking who will be available at the trade deadline. But that does not mean that as fans we cannot have opinions as to how to help the team. That is true for those that believe that the Dodgers do not need to do anything because all of the current players are going to play like MVP and CY from May on, and all of the prospects are going to be better than any player that might be available in a trade.

Trades that the Dodgers could have participated in had they had the desire. They certainly had the prospects.

Chris Sale for Yoan Moncada (2B/3B), RHP Michael Kopech (recovering from TJ), Luis Alexander Basabe (OF), and RHP Victor Diaz, who has not pitched since 2017.

Gerrit Cole for RHP Joe Musgrove, 3B Colin Moran, RHfor P Michael Feliz, and OF Jason Martin.

Justin Verlander RHP Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron (OF), Jake Rogers (C).

Don’t get me started on Christian Yelich for Lewis Brinson (F), Monte Harrison (OF), and RHP Jordan Yamamoto.

Does anyone think Boston, Houston, or Milwaukee are upset with the trades and the prospects they gave up?

You are not going to get a Ferrari by paying Volkswagen dollars. It is going to cost, but I am hoping that the Dodgers find that missing piece to get them a ring for 2019. 2020 and 2021 can wait.

There may be many of you who are as much of a prospect lover as am I, but nobody loves them more. But as much as I love prospects, I would much rather have a WS parade in November.

MINOR LEAGUE REPORT BY AC

Good night for the Dodger Affiliates going 3-1.

OKC Dodgers 3 – San Antonio Missions 4 (Brewers)

The Missions 2B uber prospect, Keston Hiura, hit 2 HRs to lead the Missions to the victory. Keston hit a 2-Run jack in the 5th off starting pitcher Brock Stewart and hit a solo shot off Zach McAllister in the 7th. Stewart went the first 4.2 innings allowing 3 runs on 6 hits 3 walks and 4 Ks. Stewart was followed by Joe Broussard who seems to be pitching better in non-high leverage scenarios. He went 1.1 IP allowing a walk with 1 K. JT Chargois finished allowing 2 hits in the 8th but no runs.

Offensively it was a quite night for the Dodgers outside of Daniel Castro’s 3-5 night and Matt Beaty’s 2-5 night. Edwin Rios did have a 2 run double in the 8th to close the score to 4-3.

Tulsa Drillers 6 – Corpus Christi Hooks 3 (Astros)

Justin DeFratus started and went 6.0 innings giving up 3 runs, 2 on solo shot HRs, on 7 hits, 0 walks, 2 Ks. He left after 6 with a lead, and Shea Spitzbarth and Layne Somsen finished the final three innings without allowing any more runs. Somsen got his first save on the year.

Offensively, somebody figured out how to cool down the hot start for Omar Estevez who went 0-5. Gavin Lux had a tough night going 1-4 but striking out twice and GIDP before singling in the 9th, stealing 2B, only to get thrown out at home trying to score on a Zach Reks single. Reks finished the night 3-5. Keibert Ruiz continued his resurgence with a 2-3 night, and Zach McKinstry went 2-4. Cody Thomas smacked his 6th HR and Angelo Mora contributed a double.

RC Quakes 8 – Modesto Nuts 6 (Mariners)

The Quakes found themselves down 4-0 after the first thanks in large part to two errors. The leadoff batter reached 1st on a fielding error, and after two ground outs, the cleanup batter reached on another error. Then the wheels came off and 4 runs scored on a single and HR. But the Quakes came roaring back with 2 in the 2nd and 5 in the 4th to take a 7-4 lead that they never relinquished.

The Quakes had 15 hits including 3 doubles and 2 triples. Donovan Casey again led the hit parade with a 3-6 night including his 5th double. Nick Yarnall also had a 3 hit night with a double and triple. Connor Wong, Drew Avans, and Brayan Morales each had 2 hit nights. Morales also stole his 16th base. Brayan is taking a huge advantage while Jeren Kendall is on the IL.

After the first inning, Edwin Uceta settled in and pitched 4.1 innings allowing only the 4 unearned runs on 6 hits, 2 walks, and 6 Ks. Max Gamboa (1.1 IP), and Ryan Moseley (2.0 IP) were outstanding in the middle 3.1 innings, before Jordan Sheffield came on to finish in a non-save situation. Unfortunately a pitcher generally does not go the season untouched, and tonight Sheff gave up his first runs on a one out 2 run HR in the 9th to close out the scoring at 8-6.

Great Lakes Loons 7 – Dayton Dragons 5 (Reds)

Staked to a 1-0 lead in the 2nd due to a Dillon Paulson HR (1), Stephen Kolek ran into a buzz saw in the 2nd surrendering 5 runs on 4 singles, a double, walk and stolen base. After the 2nd, Kolek was on his game allowing only a walk in the next three innings. Brett de Geus, Nathan Witt, and Jasiel Alvino pitched the final 4.0 innings allowing only 1 hit and 2 walks and registering 5 Ks.

Offensively, the Loons had 13 hits to support their 7 runs with 2 doubles and 3 HRs. Miguel Vargas continues his hot bat with 3-5 and raising his average to .286. I do not think it will be long before Miguel finds his way to RC. Dillon Paulson, Chris Roller, and Jair Camargo each had 2 hits including a HR. Camargo also had a double. Niko Hulsizer added his league leading 9th double.