Don't Write Off Walker Buehler Just Yet
A lot of Dodger Fans are writing off Walker Buehler because the velocity of his four-seamer topped out at 95.9 MPH in his last start and probably averaged 94 MPH. They remember the Walker Buehler (or is it “misremember”?) who threw 99-100 MPH and walked on water, but of course…
A lot of Dodger Fans are writing off Walker Buehler because the velocity of his four-seamer topped out at 95.9 MPH in his last start and probably averaged 94 MPH. They remember the Walker Buehler (or is it “misremember”?) who threw 99-100 MPH and walked on water, but of course, that isn’t true. After his Rookie Year, Walker rarely threw over 97 MPH. Yes, early in his career, he could hit 98+, but that was not often. According to Baseball Savant, here are the facts on the average MPH of his four-seam fastball:
- 2017 – 98.2 MPH
- 2018 – 96.2 MPH
- 2019 – 96.5MPH
- 2020 – 96.8 MPH
- 2021 – 95.3 MPH
- 2022 – 95.2 MPH
I do not expect Walker to add 2-3 MPH to his fastball like some fans do, but I do think he can “average” 94 or 95 MPH on it this season… and I think that is enough so that he can regain his “touch.” I got to thinking about this a couple of days ago when Justin Verlander returned for his first start in the majors this year.
We tend to think that Verlander is also a guy who threw 100 MPH, but the reality is that his fastball’s highest “average” was 95.3 MPH in 2017. Since 2019, he has averaged below 95 MPH on his fastball. In his first start this season, he averaged 93.4 MPH, which is similar to what Walker Buehler had averaged in his last start. Of more importance than fastball MPH are spin rate, inches of drop, inches of break, and preparation for the separation of speed between pitches.
Verlander pitched six innings and allowed two runs, zero walks, and struck out four. Unlike Buehler, who hit 95.9 MPH, Verlander did not hit 95 MPH, and he only hit 94 MPH a few times. Most of the time, he was at 92 – 93 MPH. So, while MPH may be important, it is not imperative that he get back to what he was in 2017-2018. That ain’t happening! If Walker can throw his four-seamer at 94 MPH and his slider at 86-87 MPH with the appropriate spin, drop, and break, he might just become a “Co-Ace” again. He is competitive and has the benefit of talking to Clayton Kershaw who was very successful in pitching when his velo dropped. Don’t give up on Striker Buehler just yet!
Dodger News & Notes
- Well, it was good to see Freddie break out!
- Mookie Betts – NL All-Star SS. #2 in Defensive Runs Saved at SS.
- Drew Pomeranz opted out and then re-signed with the Dodgers. He pitched a shutout inning last night at OKC.
- Miguel Vargas, who started out smoking hot, has cooled and is mired in a slump. He is now hitting .254/.871. Slumps can make you or break you…
- Diego Cartaya is hitting .152 (.599 OPS) and striking out at a 33% rate. This won’t cut it!
- At Tulsa, Young and Gauthier have a .275 and .234 BA, respectively… they have tanked as well.
- Alex Freeland is playing SS over Noah Miller at GL and hitting .361/1.111. He is my favorite (I only have “longshots” as my favs).
- Zaihr Hope is still raking at RC. He may need to move up as he is a man among boys at RC – .333/1.133. Gelof too: .317/.967.
- DePaula is struggling at .196, as is Kendall George (.214). George looks like he needs to go back to rookie ball.
When do I start to worry about the Dodgers? Well, they are 12-11. I’ll worry when they are 12-22. I have seen this movie too many times. Every year, fans go bat-shit crazy when the team slumps… and then it all turns out OK. It still is a crapshoot come playoff time. In a future article, I will address how Andrew Friedman may have been “forced” to make some deals he would not normally make and how that could backfire against the Dodgers ownership. You will find this interesting!
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Discussion (54)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Yesterday Mark wrote about Yamamoto where he says he will figure it out which I agree with 100%.
Now let’s put ourselves in Yamamoto’s shoes, he comes from a league where he was practically or almost invincible, where everything he threw worked and when he made mistakes most of the time he got away with it, having said this in combination with the fact that he is a young man. 25 years old brings a bit of arrogance but I assure you that he already realized that what he did in Japan will not work in the same way, he already understood that MLB hitters are of the highest level and that if you make mistakes you will pay for it. expensive, it will take him a while but he will adapt, he has the talent to achieve it, his arsenal is MLB level and as Mark says he will figure it out.
Wow I was just saying they need a better bench then what they have. so where do they look at Bear since your the god that knows so much. Isn’t this a forum chat so how can they the dodgers improve.
What a difference a win makes, dudes like Joe Death whatever just seem to go dark in their Dodgers doomsday comments. Another thing for all you fools riding the ‘Fire Dave Roberts ‘ bandwagon, if your going to nit pick and bitch and piss and moan about his decisions or lack of during a loss, pony up and give him props for a win like this. First guy that says Doc should have Won with this talent any ways. , I will personally come down to LA and bitch slap your uneducated ass, if your going to trash him, praise him for trotting out that lines in a win. Damn.Mark , I sound so much like you, I kinda get why some of these bozos might think we are too alike, but what the hell, let’s burn it down together!!!