A lot of Dodger Fans are writing off Walker Buehler because the velocity of his four-seamer topped out at 95.9 MPH in his last start and probably averaged 94 MPH. They remember the Walker Buehler (or is it “misremember”?) who threw 99-100 MPH and walked on water, but of course, that isn’t true. After his Rookie Year, Walker rarely threw over 97 MPH. Yes, early in his career, he could hit 98+, but that was not often. According to Baseball Savant, here are the facts on the average MPH of his four-seam fastball:
- 2017 – 98.2 MPH
- 2018 – 96.2 MPH
- 2019 – 96.5MPH
- 2020 – 96.8 MPH
- 2021 – 95.3 MPH
- 2022 – 95.2 MPH
I do not expect Walker to add 2-3 MPH to his fastball like some fans do, but I do think he can “average” 94 or 95 MPH on it this season… and I think that is enough so that he can regain his “touch.” I got to thinking about this a couple of days ago when Justin Verlander returned for his first start in the majors this year.
We tend to think that Verlander is also a guy who threw 100 MPH, but the reality is that his fastball’s highest “average” was 95.3 MPH in 2017. Since 2019, he has averaged below 95 MPH on his fastball. In his first start this season, he averaged 93.4 MPH, which is similar to what Walker Buehler had averaged in his last start. Of more importance than fastball MPH are spin rate, inches of drop, inches of break, and preparation for the separation of speed between pitches.
Verlander pitched six innings and allowed two runs, zero walks, and struck out four. Unlike Buehler, who hit 95.9 MPH, Verlander did not hit 95 MPH, and he only hit 94 MPH a few times. Most of the time, he was at 92 – 93 MPH. So, while MPH may be important, it is not imperative that he get back to what he was in 2017-2018. That ain’t happening! If Walker can throw his four-seamer at 94 MPH and his slider at 86-87 MPH with the appropriate spin, drop, and break, he might just become a “Co-Ace” again. He is competitive and has the benefit of talking to Clayton Kershaw who was very successful in pitching when his velo dropped. Don’t give up on Striker Buehler just yet!
Dodger News & Notes
- Well, it was good to see Freddie break out!
- Mookie Betts – NL All-Star SS. #2 in Defensive Runs Saved at SS.
- Drew Pomeranz opted out and then re-signed with the Dodgers. He pitched a shutout inning last night at OKC.
- Miguel Vargas, who started out smoking hot, has cooled and is mired in a slump. He is now hitting .254/.871. Slumps can make you or break you…
- Diego Cartaya is hitting .152 (.599 OPS) and striking out at a 33% rate. This won’t cut it!
- At Tulsa, Young and Gauthier have a .275 and .234 BA, respectively… they have tanked as well.
- Alex Freeland is playing SS over Noah Miller at GL and hitting .361/1.111. He is my favorite (I only have “longshots” as my favs).
- Zaihr Hope is still raking at RC. He may need to move up as he is a man among boys at RC – .333/1.133. Gelof too: .317/.967.
- DePaula is struggling at .196, as is Kendall George (.214). George looks like he needs to go back to rookie ball.
When do I start to worry about the Dodgers? Well, they are 12-11. I’ll worry when they are 12-22. I have seen this movie too many times. Every year, fans go bat-shit crazy when the team slumps… and then it all turns out OK. It still is a crapshoot come playoff time. In a future article, I will address how Andrew Friedman may have been “forced” to make some deals he would not normally make and how that could backfire against the Dodgers ownership. You will find this interesting!
Discussion (28)
Disagree, not disagreeable
What a difference a win makes, dudes like Joe Death whatever just seem to go dark in their Dodgers doomsday comments. Another thing for all you fools riding the ‘Fire Dave Roberts ‘ bandwagon, if your going to nit pick and bitch and piss and moan about his decisions or lack of during a loss, pony up and give him props for a win like this. First guy that says Doc should have Won with this talent any ways. , I will personally come down to LA and bitch slap your uneducated ass, if your going to trash him, praise him for trotting out that lines in a win. Damn.Mark , I sound so much like you, I kinda get why some of these bozos might think we are too alike, but what the hell, let’s burn it down together!!!
Wow I was just saying they need a better bench then what they have. so where do they look at Bear since your the god that knows so much. Isn’t this a forum chat so how can they the dodgers improve.
Yesterday Mark wrote about Yamamoto where he says he will figure it out which I agree with 100%.
Now let’s put ourselves in Yamamoto’s shoes, he comes from a league where he was practically or almost invincible, where everything he threw worked and when he made mistakes most of the time he got away with it, having said this in combination with the fact that he is a young man. 25 years old brings a bit of arrogance but I assure you that he already realized that what he did in Japan will not work in the same way, he already understood that MLB hitters are of the highest level and that if you make mistakes you will pay for it. expensive, it will take him a while but he will adapt, he has the talent to achieve it, his arsenal is MLB level and as Mark says he will figure it out.
exactly! but glasnow looks the part! pages gives us hope for left field. freddie looks awake. ohthani looks alive! max not so much. outman had a couple of good at bats. barnes pinch hit for ohtani! think that happens again?
This game means nothing… or at least very little!
And we’re complaining. What are they saying in Houston?
Glasnow to the rescue!!
Hopefully, a jump start.
“Dave Roberts recently told reporters that Buehler will make at least one more rehab start before returning to the big league club. Said start is scheduled for Wednesday, meaning the earliest Buehler could be expected to pitch in the majors would be April 29”.
Walker Buehler will start in Triple-A for Oklahoma City .
Sweep the Nats and we’re back
glasnow could easily win cy young this year ! pages gave me goosebumps today! maybe he’s a keeper? looked as if doc was up luxs ass ! doc has some fire? wow!
Pages jump-started the big 5th-inning with a double, then finished it off with a HR.
mustang? lol
Has anyone thought about just put Rojas as the shortstop improves the defense and move betts to second base. Try to get a outfielder or better third baseman and starter. Or put Betts back in RF or Center fielder. Seems like they could get a shortstop second baseman and third baseman from other teams and move Betts back to the outfield. Rojas shortstop every day makes defense better and platoon second baseman with lux Hernandez Taylor, and put Betts in CF or RF. Improve the outfield with Betts and improve infield with Rojas. If they did trade with Marlins get Burger thrid baseman for Muncy there exact same player just Burger is younger. When season is yong try different things that work. How about this lineup.
K Hernandez 2b
Betts. RF
Freeman 1b
Ohtani DH
Smith. C
Muncy 3B
T Hernandez LF
Pages CF
Rojas. SS
I would look at teams to trade with like twins pirates red sox white Sox and A’s. And see if they have second baseman shortstop or third baseman that is what the dodgers need consistent hitters. Which play every day and then guys that come off the bench. Have some pop. Look who they have off the bench now. Kiki Barnes Rojas Lux Taylor as guys to hit in runs off the bench. Outman in CF Pages in RF Hernandez LF that’s a lot of strikeouts from your outfielders. They need to address the outfield. You all remember when we had Gurerro Landreuex and Marshall as an outfield at least they put the ball in play and had some pop. That’s what these three now need to do. Just get on base like those guys. And every now and then bam a homer. But now. Every swing there swinging for the fences.
but he can hit bear! betcha he is .300 before all star game! i’m worried lux won’t be at .200!
Aarrez would work just fine .267 ! dodgers would like about 4 of those!
I’m wonderfully amazed at some posts here.
Craig Counsel uses Belli and Busch against RHP… not always LHP
Caleb Ferguson is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA
4:10 PM ET
Mets (12-8)
Dodgers (12-11)
SP Adrian Houser R
0-1 4.70 ERA
SP Tyler Glasnow R
3-1 3.72 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
SS Mookie Betts R
DH S. Ohtani L
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
LF T. Hernandez R
CF James Outman L
RF Andy Pages R
2B Gavin Lux L
75° Wind 2 mph R-L
well said Bear! rvs is done! please replace him ! no bunts, home runs or bust, no steals, no runs with runners in scoring position! all adds up to miserable baseball! call the marlins!
It has been a tough home stand. Going in, I thought they would at least be 5-4. Now they have a chance to be 2-7. Not good anyway you cut it. I hate strikeouts, and unfortunately, this team does that in abundance. Between Muncy and Hernandez, they have struck out 65 times. Outman and Freeman are in the 20’s. Last season they hit a team record 11 grand slams. This year they can’t hit with the bases loaded. You have the bases loaded and less than 2 outs, you need to score. So far, this lineup and these players have not shown they can do that. At least Freddie got off of the Schneid yesterday and drove in three. It looks like they are all trying to hit the long ball instead of just making contact and putting the ball in play. Swinging from the heels is not going to get you a lot of hits. They need a new philosophy. Von Shylock’s way is not going to cut it. Yep, they are still in first simply because the rest of the division is playing as badly as they are. Now they go on a road trip to DC, Toronto and Arizona. They need a very good road trip to get back on track. Winning today would be a good start.
The line about load the bases and we’ll do nothing is too close to truth.
Can someone explain why Pomeranz would opt out just to turn around and re-sign? Why opt out?
The Dodgers will get on a winning streak but the fact remains that they have too much swing and miss. To be successful in the playoffs that has to change. But how? Either new players or new hitting coach. It’s just embarrassing watching mlb players who can’t make contact.
Buehler used to be able to get that strikeout with the high fastball but no more. He can be a serviceable pitcher but not a number 1 or probably 2 any more. It’s been almost 2 years how long does it take?
Pomeranz resigned mb he can get back to quality now that he is healthy. If I was Friedman I would start looking at the top 20 contact hitters in mlb and c if there is a fit with the team and trade partner.
Sunday Dodgers Minor League Schedule
10:05 a.m. PT: Great Lakes (Christian Romero) vs. West Michigan (TBD)
11:05 a.m.: Tulsa (Hyun-il Choi) at Wichita (Jaylen Nowlin)
12:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Eduardo Salazar) vs. Sacramento (TBD)
2:05 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Edgardo Henriquez) at Inland Empire (Francis Texido)
a couple beers finally calmed me down last night! in reality, the dodgers still need a left fielder that can hit. they need a left handed reliever, and they need probably another inning eating starter. i was driving back from my granddaughter s soccer game,(she scored her first goal) and was listening to the game. i didn’t even bother to watch the rest when i got home. jumped on my mower and just checked in periodically. i did record it but around nine had a choice, the recording. or a rory calhoun western, i chose Rory! i do question doc a lot of times, but yesterday k after k after k? still wouldn’t mind AG calling the marlins! 3 there,2nd baseman, starter, and reliever all in a bundle!
Earlier this week I had to mute the Dodger games when Jessica Mendoza and Stephen Nelson were announcing the games as I cannot stand her annoying laughing all the time and his immature comments that are high schoolish. Lately the Dodgers are now hard to watch even with no voice with every part of their game a disaster, from bad running mistakes like Outman with his slide into second base causing an unnecessary double play. bad starting and relief pitching, to not hitting in the clutch to a bottom of the lineup that doesn’t put the ball in play enough. Today I will be heading to Scarsdale New York for a family function and will be unable to watch today’s game which will be a blessing in disguise.