Dodgers and Top Prospects

As was discussed quite a bit earlier in the week, the Dodgers have a very prolific MiLB system even as far down the draft they have been picking from because of the continued success of the ML team.  That is true when also taking into consideration a few of the early draft pick busts they currently have. 

2015:

• 1 – Walker Buehler – Starting rotation
• 1b – Kyle Funkhouser – Did not sign – Jordan Sheffield was 2016 replacement pick
• 2 – Mitch Hansen – OF – Indy baseball – Highest level achieved Full Season A
• 2b – Josh Sborz – LAD bullpen
• 3 – Philip Pfeiffer – Traded to Atlanta in the Bud Norris acquisition
• 4 – Willie Calhoun – Traded to Texas in the Yu Darvish acquisition
• 5 – Brendon Davis – Traded to Texas in the Yu Darvish acquisition

2016:

• 1 – Gavin Lux – 40 man – Currently at secondary site
• 1b – Will Smith – starting catcher – currently on IL
• 1c – Jordan Sheffield – Still in organization
• 2 – Mitch White – 40 man – Currently at secondary site
• 3 – Dustin May – Starting Rotation
• 4 – DJ Peters – 40 man – Currently at secondary site
• 5 – Devin Smeltzer – Traded to Minnesota in Brian Dozier acquisition

2017:

• 1 – Jeren Kendall – Still in organization
• 2 – Morgan Cooper – Been on IL since signed – Still in organization
• 3 – Connor Wong – Traded to Boston in Mookie Betts/David Price acquisition
• 4 – James Marinan – Traded to Reds in Dylan Floro acquisition
• 5 – Riley Ottesen – Released by LAD July 1, 2020

2018:

• 1 – JT Ginn – Did not sign – Michael Busch was 2019 replacement
• 2 – Michael Grove – Currently in 60 man player pool at secondary site
• 3 – John Rooney – Still in organization
• 4 – Braydon Fisher – Still in organization
• 5 – Devin Mann – Currently in 60 man player pool at secondary site

2019:

• 1 – Kody Hoese – Currently in 60 man player pool at secondary site
• 1b – Michael Busch – Currently in 60 man player pool at secondary site
• 2 – Jimmy Lewis – Been on IL – Still in organization
• 3 – Ryan Pepiot – Currently in 60 man player pool at secondary site
• 4 – Brandon Lewis – Considered legit 3B prospect with big power
• 5 – Jack Little – Still in organization – Trying to become a starting pitcher

Outside of 2016 and Walker Buehler, the early draft picks have not panned out just yet.  The 2019 and 2020 drafts are still unfolding.  Four out of the five 2020 draftees made the MLB Pipeline Top 30 Dodger prospect list, while three made the Baseball America top 30.  Landon Knack was not included in Baseball America, while Gavin Stone was not included in either publication.  2017 is very painful as only two are still with the organization (Kendall and Cooper) and neither one figures to be with the ML team.  I know some hold out hope for Kendall, but the odds are not good of him passing the number of OFs to make the roster.  None of the four on the 2018 draft figure to be stars at the ML level, but there still is hope they will positively contribute.

Prospect #	MLB		BA
–
1	Gavin Lux	2B/SS	Gavin Lux	2B/SS
2	Josiah Gray	RHP	Dustin May	RHP
3	Keibert Ruiz	C	Brusdar Graterol	RHP
4	Brusdar Graterol	RHP	Keibert Ruiz	C
5	Kody Hoese	3B	Tony Gonsolin	RHP
6	Michael Busch	2B	Josiah Gray	RHP
7	Diego Cartaya	C	Diego Cartaya	C
8	Luis Rodriguez	OF	Kody Hoese	3B
9	Bobby Miller	RHP	Michael Busch	2B
10	Clayton Beeter	RHP	Bobby Miller	RHP
11	Mitch White	RHP	Luis Rodriguez	OF
12	Jacob Amaya	SS/2B	Dennis Santana	RHP
13	DJ Peters	OF	Mitch White	RHP
14	Andy Pages	OF	Edwin Rios	3B/1B
15	Miguel Vargas	3B	DJ Peters	OF
16	Dennis Santana	RHP	Clayton Beeter	RHP
17	Jake Vogel	OF	Cristian Santana	3B/1B
18	Landon Knack	RHP	Omar Estevez	2B/SS
19	Gerardo Carrillo	RHP	Edwin Uceta	RHP
20	Michael Grove	RHP	Devin Mann	2B/SS
21	Zach McKinstry	UTIL	Jacob Amaya	SS/2B
22	Victor Gonzalez	LHP	Zach McKinstry	UTIL
23	Devin Mann	2B/SS	Miguel Vargas	3B
24	Alex De Jesus	SS	Andy Pages	OF
25	Omar Estevez	2B/SS	Jimmy Lewis	RHP
26	Edwin Uceta	RHP	Andre Jackson	RHP
27	Ryan Pepiot	RHP	Alex De Jesus	SS
28	Hyun-il Choi	RHP	Ryan Pepiot	RHP
29	Jimmy Lewis	RHP	Luke Raley	OF
30	Brett de Geus	RHP	Jake Vogel	OF

Baseball America still considers Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Edwin Rios as prospects while they are not considered “prospects” by MLB Pipeline.  Obviously the two publications have different definitions of who still qualifies as a prospect.

Looking at the MLB Pipeline prospect list, they are very RHP heavy with 14 of the 30. Two are currently on the roster (Brusdar Graterol and Dennis Santana). The list also includes:

• 1 LHP
• 1 2B
• 2 3B
• 1 SS
• 4 OF
• 2 C
• 4 2B/SS
• 1 Utility

There was some discussion as to what AF inherited when he signed with LAD after the season.  I really do not care if they were rated 5^th, 8^th, or 20^th.  What matters is who was on the prospect list and did they eventually contribute.  Below I have listed the top prospect list for the Dodgers from 2014-2017 to show how AF has transformed the prospect discussion.  I have used MLB Pipeline as the source, as I am very comfortable with how Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo evaluate the prospect talent.  2014 was determined at the end of the season and did include December acquisitions.

	2014	2015	2016	2017
–
1	Corey Seager	Corey Seager	Cody Bellinger	Walker Buehler
2	Julio Urias	Julio Urias	Alex Verdugo	Alex Verdugo
3	Joc Pederson	Jose De Leon	Willie Calhoun	Yadier Alvarez
4	Grant Holmes	Frankie Montas	Yadier Alvarez	Jeren Kendall
5	Chris Anderson	Grant Holmes	Yusniel Diaz	Yusniel Diaz
6	Zach Lee	Walker Buehler	Walker Buehler	Keibert Ruiz
7	Chris Reed	Alex Verdugo	Jordan Sheffield	Mitch White
8	Scott Schebler	Micah Johnson	Gavin Lux	Will Smith
9	Alex Verdugo	Chris Anderson	Austin Barnes	Gavin Lux
10	Jose De Leon	Cody Bellinger	Will Smith	Jordan Sheffield
11	Pedro Baez	Yadier Alvarez	Omar Estevez	Starling Heredia
12	Darnell Sweeney	Yusniel Diaz	Starling Heredia	Dennis Santana
13	Zach Bird	Austin Barnes	Brock Stewart	Omar Estevez
14	Joe Wieland	Mitch Hansen	Josh Sborz	Dustin May
15	Julian Leon	Starling Heredia	Imani Abdullah	Edwin Rios
16	Yimi Garcia	Trayce Thompson	Chase De Jong	DJ Peters
17	Carlos Frias	Jharrel Cotton	Brendon Davis	Drew Jackson
18	Austin Barnes	Brendon Davis	Jacob Rhame	Imani Abdullah
19	Kyle Farmer	Zach Lee	Jacob Scavuzzo	James Marinan
20	Cody Bellinger	Chase De Jong	Ronny Brito	Caleb Ferguson
21		Omar Estevez	Johan Mieses	Ronny Brito
22		Johan Mieses	Kyle Farmer	Morgan Cooper
23		Jacob Rhame	Keibert Ruiz	Carlos Rincon
24		Josh Sborz	Edwin Rios	Kyle Farmer
25		Ross Stripling	Mitch Hansen	Connor Wong
26		Jacob Scavuzzo	Andrew Toles	Cristian Santana
27		Julian Leon	Mitch White	Luke Raley
28		Kyle Farmer	Trevor Oaks	Errol Robinson
29		Jordan Paroubeck	Dustin May	Matt Beaty
30		Willie Calhoun	DJ Peters	Jake Peter

I think it can be argued that AF inherited some stars, but overall, the depth was very thin.  18 of the 20 were Ned Colletti and Logan White holdovers, with only Austin Barnes (from Marlins) and Joe Wieland (from Padres) as AF December acquisitions.  Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, and Cody Bellinger are AS.  Only Urias, Verdugo, Baez, and Garcia have been significant contributors.  Kyle Farmer was a Dodger hero with this dramatic 2 run walk off double in his MLB debut against the SF Giants (July 30, 2017).  He was listed as a catcher, but he really is multi-position utility player.

In 2016, the prospect list increased to 30, but the Colletti/White factor was only 16 out of the 30.  In 2017, the Colletti/White factor dropped to 9 and to 6 in 2017.  It dropped to three in 2018 (Verdugo, Ruiz, and Cristian Santana) and dropped to two in 2019 (Ruiz and Dennis Santana).  Victor Gonzalez was added to Ruiz and Santana to bring to three Colletti/White holdovers on the current list.

So the cupboard was not bare, but it was also not full.  Six of the top 20 are still with the Dodgers (Seager, Urias, Pederson, Baez, Barnes, and Bellinger).  Holmes is still considered a prospect with the A’s (#17) but it sure is taking him a long time to get there.  Verdugo was the key in prying Mookie away from the Red Sox.  JDL is till trying to make his mark, now with Cincinnati.  Yimi Garcia is on the IL with Miami, and Kyle Farmer is a utility infielder and emergency catcher with the Reds.  Scott Schebler is barely holding on as a non-roster player in the Braves organization.  Zach Lee is holding on with a MiLB contract with the A’s.  Chris Anderson, Chris Reed, Darnell Sweeney, Zach Bird, Julian Leon, and Carlos Frias are not affiliated with any current MLB team.

Other Colletti/White holdovers that were not on the 2014 top prospect list, but still graduated to LAD include:

• Ross Stripling
• Dennis Santana
• Caleb Ferguson
• Brock Stewart

The draft and talent evaluation is not an exact science, but AF has done a very good job of building the talent pool, and not trading any top talent, except Frankie Montas.  I DO NOT COUNT Yordan Alvarez because he was a Dodger for 26 seconds and never played in the Dodgers organization. He was never considered a top prospect as a member of the Dodgers.

With the decrease in the number in the draft and with the upcoming decrease in MiLB teams, the draft will become even more important.  Teams are going to need to push their prospects rather than hold them back for more development.  How many TJ surgery pitchers are going to get picked?  I will be very anxious to see how the current list of prospects pan out.  Not all 14 pitchers will make it to the Dodgers, much less ML.  Not all six middle infielders will graduate to LAD.  Will Vargas continue to excel as he moves up, or will Hoese surpass him.  It is extremely unfortunate that many of these players lost a year of development.  I would have loved to see what they could have done in MiLB this year.

As a point of information, all 160 draft picks in the 2020 draft signed with their teams. 15 teams exceeded thier bonus pool cap, while 14 stayed under, and 1 (DBacks) contracted the exact amount of their bonus pool. It is clearly evident tht all of the teams did their homework as to how much htey could spend, and seemingly agreed to the amounts (or close) prior to the pick. We will see how the various strategies play out in the nest 2-5 years.