Dodger Young Guns

The State of the Bullpen… and Dodger Pitching

In the month of September of teams that are likely candidates to play the Dodgers in the 2019 Fall Classic, here is how they compare in bullpen ERA since September 1st:

• Dodgers – 3.28
• Astros – 3.47
• Yankees – 3.81

HR per 9 Innings

• Dodgers – .95
• Astros – 1.52
• Yankees – 1.59

BABIP – Batting Average Balls in-Play

• Dodgers – .242
• Astros – .264
• Yankees – .319

Even Ray Charles can see the trend. The Yankees and Astros bullpens are trending down, while the Dodgers are trending up. This is not the bullpen you saw in April or May… or even August, for that matter. Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Julio Urias are the Young Gunslingers who will help shape this bullpen in the playoffs.

Gonsolin has a 3.00 ERA in his last 15 games, with 39 IP, 26 Hits and has struck out 36 with a 1.00 WHIP. He’s on the playoff roster. Dustin May has a 0.00 ERA in his last 7 relief appearances with 9 IP and 13 K’s. His WHIP is 0.67 and he is on the playoff roster. Julio has been good all year with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP but has been even better his last 30 games. All three know they are starters but have a role to play and are settling into those bullpen roles as the season winds down.

Over the last 15 games, Caleb Ferguson has allowed 7 hits in 16 innings, while striking out 19 and has a 2.81 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. He’s on the playoff roster. Another lefty, Adam Kolarek has been excellent as a Dodger with an 0.79 ERA (0.97 WHIP) in 11 IP over 25 appearances. He is just a LOOGY so I am not certain the Dodgers will carry him, but it’s likely. Of course, Pedro Baez and Kenley Jansen are on the roster.

Casey Sadler has been pretty good for the Dodgers this year but in his past 15 games, he has stumbled a bit. His ERA is 3.68 and his WHIP is 1.43 for that period. I don’t think he makes the cut. Who does make the cut… and a big difference is Kenta Maeda. He has been the victim of some bad luck, but his underlying peripherals belie his 3.45 ERA as a reliever. As a reliever, he has only allowed 8 hits in 15.2 IP, while striking out 20 and limiting the hitters to a .148 ERA ().77 WHIP). His key is to get ahead in the count. When he does, he is devastating.

Dylan Floro has pitched himself off the roster with a 10.13 ERA over the past 7 games and 7.18 ERA over the past 30 games. I don’t think his arm is OK. Fan-maligned Yimi Garcia will get consideration, as over the past 15 games he has a 2.70 ERA (o.83 WHIP). The HR ball has bit him, but otherwise, he is unhittable.

Over the past 30 games, Joe Kelly has a 2.73 ERA and 33 K’s in 26 IP, but has only logged 4 IP in September. It is seeming more-and-more likely he will not be on the roster for the NLDS. We don’t know what is wrong with him – the Dodgers do, but they ain’t sayin’…

So, we know Kershaw, Ryu, and Buehler are on the roster and there are 9 more spots to fill. Above, I said that these are the pieces:

1. Gonsolin
2. May
3. Urias
4. Kolarek
5. Ferguson
6. Baez
7. Maeda
8. Jansen

4th Starter

In a playoff series, the 4th starter is not so important as you might think. Sometimes they may not even pitch… except out of the pen. That leaves room for one more and that is none other than Chicken Strip: Ross Stripling, swingman extraordinaire. Three or four innings is all that he needs to pitch, although he is getting stretched out.

The main factor to consider in the three-game finale with the Giants is that Rich Hill starts Sunday. If he pitches well and can walk upright afterward, he will be on the playoff roster and probably take Adam Kolarek’s place. Sorry, Adam! A combination of Chicken Strip and Dick Mountain will be a nice 4th starter. Remember that in the playoffs, Kershaw and Buehler may very well pitch an inning in a game instead of throwing their normal bullpen session.

So, that’s my take as of today. Here is my final prediction (unless I make another one) for the pitching staff for the NLDS:

1. Kershaw
2. Ryu
3. Buehler
4. Stripling
5. Hill
6. Gonsolin
7. May
8. Ferguson
9. Maeda
10. Urias
11. Baez
12. Jansen

We will talk about the position players before the start of the playoffs, but right about now, Justin Turner is a possibility to be left off the roster for the NLCS with “back soreness.” Matt Beaty and CT3 could man 3B in the first round. To be continued…

Arizona Fall League

The Junkyard, Dirt, Devil, I mean Desert Dogs won 5-4. No Dodgers pitched but Jeren Kendall (.316) went 1-4 and played CF while Omar Estevez (.300) played 2B and went 1-2 with a double and a walk while driving in a run.

Mandatory Music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dlCAfq4wVg