DO REGULAR SEASON RECORDS MATTER?

Some fans say yes, while others say no. In both cases, they are relying on "selective memory." Regular-season records matter because they indicate the relative quality of two teams. But they are a much weaker predictor in October than fans often assume, especially when you're talking about a season series of only 6, 10, or even 19 games.

The 1988 Dodgers-Mets example is almost the perfect case study. The Mets went 10-1 against Los Angeles during the regular season and outscored the Dodgers 49-18. New York also won 100 games to L.A.'s 94. Then the Dodgers beat the Mets 4-3 in the NLCS and went on to win the World Series.

Here are some other great examples:

The 2022 Dodgers-Padres series may be the modern equivalent of 1988. Los Angeles went 111-51, finished 22 games ahead of San Diego, and absolutely owned the Padres, going 14-5 against them and winning all six regular-season series. Then San Diego lost Game 1 of the NLDS and proceeded to win the next three.

The 2023 Dodgers-Diamondbacks example is even more brutal. The Dodgers went 100-62, while Arizona went 84-78, 16 games worse. Arizona then swept Los Angeles in three games.

And perhaps the granddaddy of "162 games don't guarantee anything": the 2001 Mariners went 116-46, tying the all-time MLB record for wins. The Yankees were only 95-65. Seattle then lost the ALCS to New York four games to one.

But sometimes the regular season absolutely DOES carry over

The 1990 Oakland A's were a monster, going 103-59, fifteen games better than Boston. They then swept the Red Sox 4-0 in the ALCS, allowing Boston exactly one run in each game. That's a case where the regular-season superiority looked very real in October.

And that same Oakland team provides the punchline: after looking invincible against Boston, they were swept by the 91-win Cincinnati Reds in the World Series. Baseball promptly threw the spreadsheet out the window.

Why the disconnect?

The postseason is almost a different sport because the sample size collapses.

Over 162 games, roster depth, fifth starters, bench quality, and organizational depth matter enormously. In a five-game playoff series, you might face a team's three best starters almost exclusively, while its weak No. 5 starter disappears. One dominant starter, one bullpen meltdown, one bad defensive play, or one three-run homer can swing the entire series.

So... you can use the 1988 Dodgers vs. Mets to delude yourself into believing what you think or want to happen, but you also need to realize that what happened in 2022 and 2023 is the antithesis of that.

The Atlanta Braves just beat the Philadelphia Phillies for the opportunity to play the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Braves owned the Dodgers this year. Does that matter? That's who the Dodgers play starting Saturday... I have a feeling that Jeff is going to give us an amazing preview of the series...

I will give you a definite "maybe" as to whether the Dodgers can beat them. Of course, you know who I am rooting for...

Sneak Peek of my book's front & back covers

I just OK'ed this yesterday: