Define “Pornography”

Potter Stewart was an American lawyer and judge who served as an associate justice of the United States Supreme Court from 1958 to 1981. During his tenure, he made significant contributions to criminal justice reform, civil rights, court access, and Fourth Amendment jurisprudence. In 1964, Justice Stewart was asked to describe his test for obscenity, and he responded: “I know it when I see it.“

I write this in response to a comment that Duke (Not Snider) wrote yesterday:

“My advice: Take the independent prospect ratings with a grain of salt. They read each other’s ratings and mostly concur with each other. Rarely see an outlier. I’d be much more interested in a glimpse of the Dodgers internal ratings–but they may be screwy too. (Will somebody please explain why Jahmai Jones didn’t get a chance?)

Been over this topic before. Outman NEVER rated highly in prospect ratings, while Vargas and Busch always have. I never saw a ratings list that put Outman, a good outfielder, ahead of Busch, a guy still in search of a true position. (Cartaya always rates highly too, but he’s too young to be considered a peer of those three.) Because they needed an outfielder, the Dodgers brass promoted Outman to the majors before the other two, and his debut was spectacular–and too short.

Vargas, we were assured, was the closest thing to a “can’t-miss” but so far, so bad. The ump probably called a couple of close misses as strikes on that last at bat, but with two runners on and the game on the line, the batter has to swing at the close ones. With a 13-year-old still playing, I probably reminded him and his teammates with two outs to “protect the plate” about 300 times these last few years. Get a piece of it, Miguel. Foul it off. The umps won’t help you when the game is on the line.

Are the Dodger prospects over-hyped? I suspect that’s true, because of the Dodgers’ reputation. The Dodgers, after all, have a winning system, and they have produced more ROYs than any other franchise. So a guy like Vargas may be perceived as the next Seager or Belli or Will Smith. There was more hype surrounding Lux and it took him time to adjust. Vargas will need more time and perhaps a reset in OKC. We can only hope that Outman has started a new hot streak. But overall, I’d say Outman’s rookie season has met or exceeded expectations.

AF can take advantage of this hype in the trade market. When he snagged Sherzer and Trea, the typical story was how the Dodgers gave up “their top two prospects.” My guess, however, is the Dodger brass already valued Cartaya more than Keibert, and perhaps some younger pitchers more than Gray. The Nats needed MLB-ready talent–and both Keibert and Gray were blocked on the Dodgers’ roster.

I like blockbusters. They’re fun. The Scherzer-Trea deal was fun. It’s highly unlikely, but at least one baseball scribe thinks the Sox could put Luis Robert on the market. Big-time talent. What would we offer for Robert and Giolito?

I’d start with Cartaya, because the Sox will need catching and the Dodgers already have Smith and Rushing is rushing. Add Busch, because he has no clear fit with the Dodgers–and his debut was underwhelming. Add DeLuca or Pages or Ramos to replace Robert. Maybe Outman, because Robert strikes out too much too. Add a near-ML arm like Knack or Nastrini, plus a lottery ticket type.

OK, this might be an overpay, but the point is that the Dodgers have the player capital to do something bold.

Hey, the Dodgers could also deal Vargas if they prefer a gracefully aging Mookie at 2B.

Of course this is pure speculation, based on a scribe’s speculation.

But did any of us see AF landing both Scherzer and Trea in a single deal? And Trea had another year on his contract, which helped the Dodgers to a 111-win season and set up the transition to the Lux Era, for which we’ll have to wait ’til next year.

Looking for a strong performance from Bobby Miller today. The Dodgers need to stop losing to weak teams.

I still think the Dodgers will win the division, in part because AF & Associates will learn from their mistakes of ’22 and make a bold trade or two before Aug. 1.”

— Duke (Not Snider)

There is a lot to unpack here, but I think that this raises some very worthy questions. The answer to some of them is the answer that Justice Potter Stewart gave: “I know it when I see it.” So, here we go:

“Take the independent prospect ratings with a grain of salt. They read each other’s ratings and mostly concur with each other. Rarely see an outlier. I’d be much more interested in a glimpse of the Dodgers internal ratings–but they may be screwy too.“

You have to take everything involving prospect development with a grain of salt. I’d like to see you walk into a room of them who make their living doing this and say that. They would bitch slap you to hell. They often do not agree with each other, but they all have strong opinions. Why? Because they watch the players, they are talking about players they have watched… a lot! I will ask Duke the same question I asked Eric: “How many A- A+, AA, and AAA Dodger games have you watched over the past five years?” I am going with the answer NONE! Until this year, you had to subscribe to MiLB.com, which was an extra charge. This year with MLB.com is also delivering the Minor League Games at no charge. So, my question is: “How can you have opinions on players you have never watched develop?

Every team has independent ratings, and they have many, if not dozens, of employees who watch the players play and watch the film of them playing. I read all the top ratings services: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, and others every year. I have every Baseball America Prospect Handbook ever published that I refer back to, yet I only have a fraction of the knowledge that the organizational employees have because they also get access to all of these employees of MLB teams who are involved in the process.

Player development and predicting player development are not exact sciences… in fact, they are very inexact because only a small percentage of minor-league players will make the Show… perhaps 20-30% and most will not be stars. There are no training schools for scouting and player evaluation. It’s a talent that you develop over time. Generally, it involves “years” to develop this talent as you have to learn by your successes as well as your mistakes… and you will make a lot of them. It also involves whether you have “sight” or “vision.” Can you see what a player can become or just what he is? Do you really watch them develop? Did you read the book (watch the games), or did you just watch the movie (read a summary)?

“Will somebody please explain why Jahmai Jones didn’t get a chance?”

The simple answer is that the Dodgers’ player development people do not value a player who can only play 2B and has little power. When Jahmai was drafted, he was extremely fast, but as he matured, he became “thicker” and slower. His defense is below average, and he has poor plate discipline. Additionally, he will be 26 next month. The Angels, Orioles, and Dodgers have all given up on him. He started out as CF’er, but as his speed declined, he was moved to 2B, where he never really mastered the pivot. The Dodgers elected to replace him with a player who can play all over and maybe equal as a hitter. Jahmai Jones is a good guy who is an AAAA player (that’s my opinion). I do wish him well with Milwaukee, as he is a genuinely good guy.

Been over this topic before. Outman NEVER rated highly in prospect ratings, while Vargas and Busch always have. I never saw a ratings list that put Outman, a good outfielder, ahead of Busch, a guy still in search of a true position. (Cartaya always rates highly too, but he’s too young to be considered a peer of those three.) Because they needed an outfielder, the Dodgers brass promoted Outman to the majors before the other two, and his debut was spectacular–and too short.

Define “Never ranked highly.” In Basedball Americas’ 2023 Prospect Handbook, he was ranked as the Dodgers’ #10 Prospect. He was ranked ahead of Jacob Amaya, Nick Frasso, Josue De Paula, Emmet Sheehan, Eddys Leonard, Ronan Kopp, River Ryan, Jonny DeLuca, Michael Grove, Maddux Bruns, Devin Mann, Landon Knack, Jose Ramos, and several other excellent prospects.

In 2022, he was ranked #15, and in 2021 he was at #40. How do you rank players? Well, I think my question was answered: “Did you watch him in minor-league games? I say no! You evaluate a player by what you see, and Michael Busch just has more “tools.” Even Ray Charles can see it. Now, I am guessing that you and Eric “discovered” James Outman when he was called up in 2022 and went 7 for 13 with a hundred home runs. Baseball scouts laugh at “small samples” and rightfully so. They mean very little. In case you don’t know, “luck” is really a thing in baseball.

Again, in three years, Outman went from #40 to #15 to #10. That’s a great rating, and “Outman is becoming a “good outfielder” in that he frequently misplays balls in CF, but that is just a lack of experience. I think he will ultimately be an above-average Centerfielder. Busch is still in search of a true position because the Dodgers are not sure where they need him, not for lack of athletic skill. Let us not forget that Outman’s swing was just awful in the beginning. He says he “swung like a caveman.”

“Vargas, we were assured, was the closest thing to a “can’t-miss” but so far, so bad. The ump probably called a couple of close misses as strikes on that last at bat, but with two runners on and the game on the line, the batter has to swing at the close ones. With a 13-year-old still playing, I probably reminded him and his teammates with two outs to “protect the plate” about 300 times these last few years. Get a piece of it, Miguel. Foul it off. The umps won’t help you when the game is on the line.”

Well, there is probably no such thing as “can’t miss.” Ranking prospects is an inexact science, at best. One game does not define Vargas, and he has certainly not lived up to his press clippings. Yes, he has had some injuries that have impeded his progress, but it is what it is. However, the reason I know you never watched him or Outman in the Minor Leagues is that you would not write that if you did. Even Ray Charles could see Vargas’ skills. How do you describe it? “I know it when I see it!” I am still high on Vargas and so are the Dodgers – this is a setback, but so far, the Dodgers are sitting him and not sending him back. I have to believe that they know something about him that we don’t. Also, progress is not linear.

Are the Dodger prospects over-hyped? I suspect that’s true, because of the Dodgers’ reputation. The Dodgers, after all, have a winning system, and they have produced more ROYs than any other franchise. So a guy like Vargas may be perceived as the next Seager or Belli or Will Smith. There was more hype surrounding Lux and it took him time to adjust. Vargas will need more time and perhaps a reset in OKC. We can only hope that Outman has started a new hot streak. But overall, I’d say Outman’s rookie season has met or exceeded expectations.

First of all, how are the Dodgers players over-hyped? BA, BP, The Athletic, Fangraphs, and all the others are independent and not affiliated with any team. Do you read about the other teams’ prospects? There is nothing inherently different about the way they write about the players. The fact is, other organizations may have some prospects with more skills, but the Dodgers have a depth that is not apparent with any other team. In other words, it is quite likely that other teams may produce more superstars than the Dodgers due to drafting higher. The Dodgers do not get a shot at players like Elly de la Cruz, so they make up for it with better player development.

James Outman is having a nice season; I predicted he would be a 4th or 5th outfielder. So far, he looks to be a starter. Again, I can see his development from what he was a year or two ago. I had him ranked as the Dodgers’ #12 prospect. It will take two or three years to determine where he lands, but he has exceeded expectations thus far.

AF can take advantage of this hype in the trade market. When he snagged Sherzer and Trea, the typical story was how the Dodgers gave up “their top two prospects.” My guess, however, is the Dodger brass already valued Cartaya more than Keibert, and perhaps some younger pitchers more than Gray. The Nats needed MLB-ready talent–and both Keibert and Gray were blocked on the Dodgers’ roster.
I like blockbusters. They’re fun. The Scherzer-Trea deal was fun. It’s highly unlikely, but at least one baseball scribe thinks the Sox could put Luis Robert on the market. Big-time talent. What would we offer for Robert and Giolito?

I’d start with Cartaya, because the Sox will need catching and the Dodgers already have Smith and Rushing is rushing. Add Busch, because he has no clear fit with the Dodgers–and his debut was underwhelming. Add DeLuca or Pages or Ramos to replace Robert. Maybe Outman, because Robert strikes out too much too. Add a near-ML arm like Knack or Nastrini, plus a lottery ticket type.
OK, this might be an overpay, but the point is that the Dodgers have the player capital to do something bold.

This is the truth, but we shall have to see. AF will not make a move out of desperation. Ruiz and Gray still have not arrived. I liked Ruiz over Smith, but Smith has developed like no one ever imagined! Cartaya is the Wild Card. The Dude has “light-tower power,” but so does Edwin Rios. His development has stalled this season. There could be reasons for this that we are not privy to, or he could simply not be that good.

It has taken Andrew Friedman years to rebuild the Farm System, and while it might be lacking in “Superstar Power” it makes up for that in depth, and there may be some marginal superstars there as well. So it will be interesting to see what he does. I have no clue, but I do think that it may be difficult to get a starter better than Landon Knack via trade without gutting the farm. I think we will see him soon.

In my opinion, the Dodgers do not have to do anything. David Peralta and Jason Heyward improved this season. I can see Vargas doing the same. Michael Busch has a nice bat and is a better fielder than given credit for. Jonny DeLuca is a lefty killer. I could go either way: Trade the farm or stand pat! An argument could be made for both. Making blockbuster trades no longer works like it once did because of the randomness of the playoffs, which makes them somewhat of a crapshoot.

In conclusion, what determines how good a player might be? There are so many factors that we could not list them all, but when you watch a player 50, 70, or 90 times a season for a few years you can see the cream rise to the top. It’s hard to describe, but “I know it when I see it!”

Quick: Which Dodger rookie has the highest batting average? Jonny DeLuca (albeit a small sampling).

Before I sign off, the Dodger Bullpen ERA is up to #24. Hudson is going to help… a lot. Give him a week or two.