Dave Roberts: On the Hot Seat in 2024?
Over the last eight seasons, no team has won as many games as Dave Robert’s Dodgers. 753. His teams have won seven division titles, three NL pennants, and a World Series. Lasorda and Alston, probably the two most celebrated managers in Dodger history, never came close to that…
Over the last eight seasons, no team has won as many games as Dave Robert’s Dodgers. 753. His teams have won seven division titles, three NL pennants, and a World Series. Lasorda and Alston, probably the two most celebrated managers in Dodger history, never came close to that kind of success.
Different eras, of course. Lasorda’s teams won two World Series, seven years apart. His 1977 and 1978 teams went to the World Series and lost. He lost the 1983 and 1985 playoffs. His team also lost the 1995 playoff series to the Reds.
Alston won Brooklyn’s only title in his second year at the helm. His teams would win three more series in 1959-1963-1965 and lose in 1966 and 1974 before he retired.
Lasorda’s teams had a .526 winning percentage over his 21 years at the helm. Alston’s teams had a .558 in 23 years. Robert’s teams have won at a .630 percentage—the best in MLB history.
Yet Dodger fans consistently call for the team to fire him. It doesn’t matter that his teams have a winning percentage in the postseason; they are 45-39. They cite the last three postseason losses, especially the last two to the Padres and Diamondbacks. And they cite the fact that the Dodgers won only one World Series and that they did that in the shortened pandemic season of 2020.
They were cheated in 2017, but no one knew that until well after the series was over. In 2018, they played a much better team in the Red Sox.
What fans often forget is that all of the teams played under the same rules in 2020. All of the teams and players played in empty stadiums, so you had basically no 10th man. They played under conditions no MLB teams have ever had to play under before.
Then in order to even get to the World Series, they had to win three postseason series. Wild Card, NLDS, and then the NLCS. They cruised through the first two, beating the Brewers in two games and then sweeping San Diego.
In the NLCS, they went down 3-1 to the Braves. The only win coming on the strength of an 11 run first inning in game three.
They then lost game four. They were down 2-1 before they started their comeback in the sixth inning and won game five, 7-3. They won game three behind the stellar pitching of Walker Buehler and a three run first inning.
Then in game 7, they once again were down 2-0. Will Smith singled in 2 in the bottom of the third to tie. Ozuna untied it in the top of the fourth.
In the bottom of the 6th, Kike hit a homer off of Minter to tie the game. Meanwhile, Julio Urias came in as a relief pitcher in the top of the 7th.
Cody Bellinger hit a home run off of Chris Martin, yes, the same one who pitched for LA in 2022,and they were up 4-3. Urias totally shut down Atlants over the last three innings, and LA was off to the World Series.
Another thing fans forget is that all of these wins, except for the first two over the Brewers, were all played on neutral fields. Fans were not allowed in the stands until the NLCS and then only a limited amount.
So, there was no cheering section until the NLCS and World Series, both played on neutral fields and in order to be the champion, you had to win an unprecedented 13 games in the postseason.
In that postseason, the Dodgers went 13-5. Pretty good. Most fans do agree that during that run, Roberts did perhaps his best-managing job as to his use of the bullpen and starting staff.
It was by far Kershaw’s best postseason of his career. Many of his prior failures were forgotten. The fans were happy, the team was happy, and the fans of other teams denied that it was a legitimate win.
Some Dodger fans have joined that bandwagon over the years, and they point at Roberts as the reason the team has not won a World Series when the team has played a full season.
Roberts is very good at managing egos. He is a great communicator, and his players know exactly where they stand with him. If you were to ask his players, they would probably say they love playing for the guy.
Another knock on Dave is that his teams seem not to have any fire in their bellies. In other words, they lack grit. An example would be Chase Utley; Utley would go out of his way to beat you. And he wanted you to know who was taking you down.
There are not a lot of guys like that on the Dodgers now. Kershaw has that mentality. So does Buehler. Bobby Miller looks like he could bring that to the game, too. But most of the star players, to some, seem too laid back. Mookie and Freddie are the targets of this claim.
Players like Tommy Pham, who looks like he wants to fight you every game, are not on the team. But I believe that is a misconception on the fans’ part. I think all of these guys want to win, and want to win all of the time.
But most of the criticism for the lack of success in the postseason is directed at the manager. He didn’t pull Lynn after he gave up two bombs and allowed him to stay in and give up four. He should have pulled Kershaw in the first inning of game one after he gave up three runs.
He pulled Rich Hill when he was totally shutting down the Red Sox. They point out every pivotal point in a loss. And they throw the guy who made the decision under the bus, and not the player.
No matter what move he made, it was the wrong one. It is on Roberts and not the player. But the fact remains that the player failed to perform when most needed. He did send Kersh back out in the 8th inning of game 5 in 2019, and he gave up back-to-back homers to Rendon and Soto to tie the game.
He probably thought Kersh could get the lefty-hitting Soto out. He would have been better served by letting Maeda start the inning. But the offense also got nothing going against the Nats pen after they had scored three off of Strasburg.
With the best team in the majors in 22, his team lost to a team they dominated during the season. In 23, with a team that was so decimated in the starting rotation and still managed to win 100 games they again lost to a team they owned all year and lost to two pitchers they have owned their entire careers.
In 2024, he is not going to have any excuses. This organization went out and spent over 1 billion dollars on the two best free agents at their position this year. Then they traded for another pitcher and extended him for 5 years at over 100 million. They are most likely not finished tweaking the roster before spring training starts a little over 7 weeks from now.
Dave is definitely under the microscope this year. It is a World Series win or bust. I honestly believe his team has to win this year, or a change will be coming.
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Discussion (92)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Had it not been for the cheating he’d have 2 titles in 7 years. I think any franchise would take that.
The best is yet to come….
The modern Playoff format DOES not crown the best team, we’ve re-hashed that time and again and its been proven.
Hopefully 24 is the Dodgers year to be the best team for a 3 week period…
Hope you all had a wonderful Christmas. I am heading home to Colorado this Friday. I will be there by Sunday sometime as I am stopping in Az to see an old friend. As for Roberts, I have long questioned his strategy’s. I never have thought he was a great situational manager, but then there are few of those guys in baseball today. But as Badger says, it is always on the players. But as was also stated, you cannot fire all of the players. But I saw both Alston and Lasorda make decisions that cost the team a win. Charlie Dressen made a decision to bring in Ralph Branca, even though he had given up a homer to Thompson earlier in the playoffs, based on a coach telling him that Erskine had bounced a curveball in the dirt while warming up. Erskine’s curve, according to the catcher who was warming him up, was nasty that day. Might have been the difference between going to the World Series or going home. Alston sent a totally gassed Ed Roebuck back out to the mound in game 3 of the 62 playoffs against the Giants nursing a 4-2 lead. This when Big D had volunteered to pitch. Alston’s reasoning? He needed Drysdale to pitch the opener of the World Series. He totally forgot you have to get there first. Roebuck was ineffective, he brings in Williams, who was wilder than a March hare, and the game is lost.
Lasorda decided to pitch to Jack Clark with the game on the line and a guy hitting .167 for the series in the on-deck circle. Nuff said. Over his time here, Roberts has been a winner. At least his players love playing for the guy. His in season gaffs have not really hurt the team and they have continued winning. The postseason is a different animal. There is more pressure to win. Players react differently. Some respond to the pressure and some do not.
Fire him now just for kicks.
I’m not sure, but I think Teoscar Hernández is still a free agent, also Tim Anderson, both would be good options, Teoscar much better, but only in case Lux (whom I join the list of “I don’t think is a shortstop) Anderson it would be cheap.
What I will remember most about the ‘23 postseason was Kershaw , Mookie, and Freddie, all future Hall of Famers, melting like fondue. Kershaw had an excuse. He probably shouldn’t have been out there. Mookie and Freddie have no excuse. They choked. And none of that is on Roberts.
Yes, much is expected of the team next year. The TEAM. The team consists of 40 players. If they do what they are getting paid to do, the team will win.
Dave Roberts makes about $6.5 million a year, less than what they are paying Joe Kelly. There is debate on the value of managers but some stats show the best managers in baseball over the years are said to be worth at best about 1-2 WAR. So being paid less than Joe Kelly, should tell you what the Dodgers think their manager is worth.
It’s the players. Always. They play like they are paid to play, the manager will lead them to victory. They swallow olives, like Kershaw, Mookie, and Freddie did, the team will lose, and those that don’t understand will likely blame the manager.
I thought Doc should have been Manager of the Year, last regular season. Everybody who pays attention can pick out in-game moves over the years where Doc’s been wrong, as it turned out. Sometimes he hasn’t put his player in the best situation to succeed. But winning 100 games with all of the injuries in the regular season, was remarkable. Doc had nothing to do with putting the bats in the freezer or our pitching woes in the playoffs. I might have started Pepiot instead of Lynn but those are the hard choices that have to be made and I’m not sure Doc had the only vote on that one. I thought Doc was masterful last year.
If Dave Roberts is the problem, it’s a good problem to have. I get it, some fans want to simplify things. If things go south, blame the manager. Should have done this, not that. Not quite that easy.
What Dave does well is manage a lot of personalities and egos, keeps them focused. Not easy to win a hundred games.
You could make the case when they won in 2020 and yes, that’s legitimate, every organization had to compete under the same rules and format, that Corey Seager stepped up and made the difference. The Dodgers won. How many times did Seager deliver? There was a reason he was the MVP of both the World Series and NL championship. The only real problem is that there no Parade.
Even Bruce Bochy said the key to the Rangers winning this year centered around Seager, who again delivered repeatedly for Texas. Would Seager have made a difference if he was a Dodger this year. No, not really. The Dodger starting pitching was a mess.
No Urias, No May, No Gonsolin and Kershaw needed surgery. Then they didn’t hit.
So it’s actually players stepping up that make the real difference. Wow. Imagine that.
The past couple of years, the Dodgers had multiple injuries and that derailed them. If they stay healthy this year, I like their odds of winning it all.
This is an interesting gambit. The Dodgers have never gone in to this level. One of the reasons Friedman has been so successful is his ability to stay flexible, not to become anchored to big contracts. Because of their financial clout and the pursuit of massive new revenue streams, I’m not sure they will be anchored down by a massive payroll.
Free agency and long term contracts seldom, if ever, work out for teams. Certainly not over the long haul. Maybe the Dodgers can do both.
Are they done? Maybe not, Gomes says they’re still looking for another pitcher. Probably not a big contract. I still think Miller and Sheehan are difference makers on the mound.
What strikes me as really funny is that some fans who criticized the Dodgers for losing out on free agents in the past or not retaining Seager, are now criticizing them for all the money they are now spending. Just can’t win with some people.
So just enjoy the ride. We’re in unexplored territory here. Probably going to be a lot of fun.
I have supported Doc as Manager over the years. There has always been the argument that anyone could have won with the talent he had. Two or three times I presented the records of many Managers (most of which are in the Hall of Fame) who had great talent yet did not even come close to Doc’s winning percentage.
I even remember several posters arguing that guys like Bob Melvin were so much better at managing than Doc. Yet, last year the great Melvin had great talent and still did not even make the playoffs.
Unfortunately I am afraid that Bear, Mark, and AVF are right that winning it all is essential to Doc’s keeping his job this year. The only that might argue that is the fact that Kasten stuck with Bobby Cox during all those division titles with only 1 WS win.
The term “crap shoot” when talking about the post season has been used ad nauseam on this site. I have always thought of it that “anything can happen in a short series” and seems to happen often. I know I am probably in the minority but I truly hope Doc is measured by his overall body of work and not the results of 3 short series in any given year. If winning the WS is the only measure of his longevity, it is only a matter of time before he is canned because I’m absolutely sure the Dodgers will not win the WS every year.
Happy New Year to all and yes, I do hope we go all the way.
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No question! He’ll probably even get blowback if we win it all but didn’t sweep everyone!
The seat has never been HOTTER for Dave Roberts in 2024. World Series or Bust has never been truer!!! You don’t fire 26 players, you fire the guy that is responsible for the game decision making. You don’t spend a billion plus and expect to finish second or runner-up. Expectations have NEVER been higher.
I 100% agree that Doc is on the hot set in 2024. Perhaps no fan base is as fickle as Dodger fans, and while it was not nearly as true with Lasorda and Alston when Dave Roberts made a movie that did not work, the fans blame him, even though he was not the guy hitting or pitching and when he succeeds, they say that the Dodgers won “despite him.” It is a preconceived idea that is not going away, so to appease the fans, if the Dodgers do not win the World Series in 2024, he will likely be the sacrificial lamb… and the next manager likely will not be as good! The next manager will also not be Chase Utley! He wants no part of that life.
The Giants never won when they had the best p[layer in baseball, but they did win when the team was not as good talent-wise. They won with pitchers like MadBum, who had a career 3.47 ERA in the regular season but turned into Sandy Koufax in the playoffs. In 12 playoff series, Mad Bum had a 2.11 ERA! Bruce Bochy is regarded as a genius, but it’s the players who made him look like that. OTOH, Doc had Clayton Kershaw, who was unbelievable in the regular season with a career 2.48 ERA, but in the playoffs, he turned into Pee Wee Herman with a 4.49 ERA, and some of his meltdowns were epic.
When players exceed expectations, fans tend to believe the managers are geniuses! So, yes, Doc is on the hot seat!