Corey Seager or Trea Turner?
Do you remember when many Dodger fans wanted to trade Gavin Lux, Keibert Ruiz, and the kitchen sink for Francisco Lindor who was allegedly the second coming? Remember how many were heartbroken when he was traded to the Mets who signed him to a $341 Million Dollar Deal? Remember when most fans wanted Lindor, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, or Javier Baez instead of Corey Seager? Well, of those five (soon
Do you remember when many Dodger fans wanted to trade Gavin Lux, Keibert Ruiz, and the kitchen sink for Francisco Lindor who was allegedly the second coming? Remember how many were heartbroken when he was traded to the Mets who signed him to a $341 Million Dollar Deal? Remember when most fans wanted Lindor, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, or Javier Baez instead of Corey Seager?
Well, of those five (soon to be free agent) shortstops, let’s look at their stats:
- Javier Baez – .241 BA/.757 OPS/24 HR/68 RBI Baez is a train wreck. I want to see what Fool GM gives him more than $80 Million.
- Carlos Correa – .269 BA/.839 OPS/18 HR/60 RBI Carlos is doing OK, but his history of back injuries has to give anyone pause.
- Francisco Lindor – .228 BA/.702 OPS/11 HR/36 RBI I’ll bet Steve Cohen has learned his lesson. This is potentiall a huge boat anchor contract.
- Trevor Story – .254 BA/.785 OPS/15 HR/54 RBI Certainly not the superstar that many thought. You have to dedcet a little from his offense for the Mile-High Factor
- Corey Seager – .276 BA/.799 OPS/5 HR/25 RBI Of course, he has been injured most of thr season. The final chapter is yet to be written… and is true with all five players.
Francisco Lindor’s inability to even be an average player started the domino effect to all the other shortstops. That contract looks like a boat anchor. I think because of that, most GMs will be very wary of giving out big contracts to these players. Some Dodger fans pined for Javy Baez. How do you like him now? No thank you! Corey Seager is heating up and getting his strike back. I predict that he will hit over .300… of course, he doesn’t have enough at-bats to qualify for anything. With a hot finish, Corey Seager will be the cream of the crop of Free Agent Shortstops, but what does that mean for the Dodgers?
We know that Trea Turner changes the whole Dodger Dynamic. However, I would not want to choose one player over the other… and I don’t think you have to. A sit-down after the season with both players could be productive. I can see both players wanting to test free agency. People who say “The Dodgers should lock up Seager (or Turner) now.” are not being realistic and lack understanding of how the free-agent process works. Trea Turner becomes a Free Agent in 2023 while Corey Seager is one after this season.
There are not that many teams that can afford either player, but right now our focus is on Corey. The Yankees can afford him, but will they? We know that was his childhood team, but does he still want to play there? Will the Yankees be a player for him? We don’t know. Corey will be 28 next season. I think he can play shortstop into his 30’s and slide over to 3B or 1B at that time. We know that he missed nearly a full season with elbow and hip surgery and recently missed months with a broken finger/hand. I do not think that makes him “injury prone.” Getting hit with a pitch is not proof of that.
Of course, Trea Turner also plays SS, and 2B and CF. He can be outstanding at any of these positions, but there is one thing to worry about with Trea Turner. We know his speed is elite, but we also know he is a year older than Corey. You don’t get faster as you get older. We also know that Trea has missed substantial time with injuries. As he ages, his speed will become less of a factor. The bottom line is I think Corey will get a bigger contract than Trea, but that is why players go to free agency to see what they can get.
If forced to sign one or the other, I would sign Corey Seager to an 8 year/$240 Million Dollar deal. That’s a big contract, but I do not believe any of the shortstops on the market this year will get anything approaching with Lindor did. Cody Bellinger is also showing signs of getting his stroke back, so the Dodgers will have to figure out how to sign him too.
Currently, Mookie Betts is likely headed back to the IL and I wonder how much of a factor he can be. He obviously needs surgery, but for what and how? We don’t know. I think the Dodgers do but aren’t saying. Justin Turner’s groin injury could also require an IL stint. Sometimes those take a while. CT3 can play there, but Max Muncy is a better option because of his experience.
Danny Duffy, Victor Gonzalez, and Clayton Kershaw are also on the IL and probably won’t be back until September, whenever. The Good News is that Alex Vesia and Corey Knebel look healthy and effective out of the pen. Corey was 97-98 MPH consistently last night. This has been a trying season for the Dodgers and they will be tried even more, but even Mookie and JT out, the firepower brought by Turner, Seager, Muncy, Bellinger, and Taylor should be sufficient. It would be nice to win the division (and I still think the Dodgers will), but that is not the only path to success.
Regardless of the injuries, this team will be tough in the playoffs… they just have to get there first. However, anyone who thinks this team does not have depth is seriously mistaken.
Minor League News
- Gavin Lux played 3B at OKC and was 2-4 last night. He’s playing 3B, in case JT is down for any period of time. Gavin has not been the superstar (yet) that many wanted, but he is a solid player.. who may becaome THAT guy.
- Miguel Vargas continues to hit at Tulsa. He balsted his 10th HR last night and was 2-4 (.294 BA/.877 OPS)
Photo Credit: Alex Gallardo / Associated Press
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Discussion (153)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Corey or Trea?
Okay, we should walk through this. But first let me point out that I never thought going after Lindor made any sense. I’ve always liked Corey Seager. We drafted him and he came up through the system, excellent clutch hitter with power, pretty good defensive skills. Definitely need to re-sign him, no maybe about it.
Just to point out I was for signing AJ Pollock, always liked his bat and skill set. Said so many times. I’m definitely not trading him. Where would be this season without his bat? The Dodgers also hold an option for 2023. Believe the trade for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner was worth the price. Okay, I thought the Dodgers should sign Bauer. Oh well.
But I’m not looking at a Corey or Trea scenario. If I’m the Dodgers, I try to keep them both. I’m going for the super team and I’m looking at the next five years. All the Dodgers need is health.
The Dodgers have money coming off the books and Bauer will be off the payroll one way or the other.
I don’t buy the loss of speed argument in Turner’s case, he’s built for speed and in the five to seven year window, I think the speed plays up. He’s a difference maker and he adds a dimension few teams in baseball have.
Corey adds the big time clutch bat, the MVP quality play. No way I let him walk. He likes LA, likes the organization and wants to play for a consistent winner. Yah, Scott Boras will be a pain in the ass, but in the end Seager should remain a Dodger. I seriously doubt a $300 million contract is in play, although many experts believe that is what Seager will get. I won’t be surprised to see the Giants become the Dodgers number one competitor for Seager’s services.
Who knows what the Yankees will do? Rumors indicate the team may be up for sale. Just can’t see Artie Moreno investing in another hitter, although the Angels could certainly be a player for Seager. The Angels and the Giants, even more incentive for the Dodgers to keep Seager.
Not sure what everybody thinks about Clayton Kershaw, but, if he’s healthy, I can’t see the Dodgers walking away. He simply means too much to LA and the Dodgers. Not all decisions can be made through a black and white landscape.
No question Kenley is gone, unless he comes back for far less money. Maybe the Giants snag him.
I have no idea what’s wrong with Mookie’s hip, a pointer or something else. I’m sure that something will be announced at the end of year. Surgery or rehab or rest. It’s not Dave Roberts job to make sure the fans know exactly what is wrong with players. It may leak out or a player may say something, but often these things are kept quiet. Mookie seems to be a very private person. Even his own assessments have proven incorrect.
Another thing I would do is keep Scherzer, maybe a two year deal. He wants to be here. Same with Kershaw.
The Dodgers don’t have to settle, they can go for the super team, make history, open up new lines of revenue.
Corey Seager and Trea Turner are both all star baseball players and the Dodgers should try to keep both of them. Unfortunately, Corey Seager has selected Scott Boras as his agent, and that will make it very difficult to retain Corey.
While Trea is 10 months older than Corey, their career stats in MLB are remarkably similar.
Seager:
At bats – 2,247
Average- .294
OPS – .857
HR – 93
SB – 12
Turner:
At Bats – 2,568
Average – .300
OPS – .842
HR – 93
SB -193
In my opinion, Corey is a slightly better hitter, and Trea is a slightly better all around baseball player. I would rather have either Trea or Corey above Lindor who has a career average of .280 and career OPS of .821.
Also, The Lindor contract paid him a $22 million salary this year plus an upfront bonus of $21 million. His AAV will be $34 million for the next 10 years starting in 2022.
Hopefully, the Dodgers can find a way to keep Seager, but Boras will likely create a bidding war and find a team to overpay Corey. And in the long run, most huge contracts do not workout for the teams.
This year, 14 players have a base salary of $30 million or above. Only three of those players have WAR above 3: Cole, DeGrom, and Machado. And 5 of the 14 have a WAR below 0.5.
Even Reliable stars like Mookie Betts and Mike Trout are susceptible to injury.
And one other consideration is that the MLB Labor Agreement expires at the end of the year which could impact all free agents.
I’ve said this many times before, but I hope we resign Seager and I hope next year we can extend my new favorite player, Trea Turner. I hope he finds the West Coast to not be so bad that he just has to live in the East. If he absolutely has to move back East, I hope the Atlanta Braves can sign him, seeing that I live in the Big A.
Other tidbits I’d like to express:
1. VESIA….he now has my attention. Way to go young man.
2. The bullpen….all of a sudden with Knebel back, VESIA pitching nicely, Bickford being consistent, Kelly becoming beastly again, Trienen being Trienen (reliable), this Bruihl kid looking impressive, albeit too small of a sample size….now all we have to do is hold our breath when Graterol and Jansen come in. (I omitted Greene and Quack because I do not believe either will be around much.)
3. I’m 100% okay with McKinney playing over Beaty. Beaty may be a bit better with the stick but McKinney is better with the glove, so it’s kind of a wash.
4. Glad to hear Lux is working out at 3B. If Turner has to miss some time, it’s nice to have the option of at least playing Lux against RHP.
5. Our depth….anyone concerned about the lack of our positional depth? Other than CT3, we seem to have no one that reliable who can come in and start every day in the OF or 3B.
6. As much as I hate to say this, if we can only try to sign one, I would try for Scherzer over Clayton for obvious reasons. But, I feel dirty saying that.
That’s it for now. Great win last night, we needed it to not drop back anymore. It pains me to watch Dbacks highlights…that Christian Walker kid who plays 1B gave them the game just like that Brewers RF who misplayed the final out a week ago. The friggin Giants do seem to be a team of destiny so far……
TM
I think 99% of GMs in the league would still sign Lindor to that deal if they had the resources.
One year does not an albatross make.
Betts obviously needs surgery? How is that anything that’s obvious, other than an obvious guess.
“I’m vague about what it is,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said, “because I really don’t know what it is … when and if he goes on the IL, when he gets back I think that’s where we’re going to be at.”
No Dave, you weren’t vague about what it is. You said hip pointer. And what the hell are you saying in the last half of that statement? When he gets back, that’s where we’ll be at?
I think he wants to tell what he knows, can’t, and he’s a terrible liar.
You only tell half the story Mark.
Lindor has 2.1 WAR this year, with a +.9 dWAR. Seager 0.8. WAR with a – dWAR. Plus, he’s only making $22m this year. Not an anchor yet.
At least Lindor showed up.
But, your point is made. We’ll see how the two finish.
The answer is Turner. But I hope we can keep both.
I keep imagining this team with Mookie on it.
I’m with you Mark, I love Corey and would definitely want to make it a priority to bring him back. I feel the same way about Cody. Did you see that catch at the end of the game. He gets to everything. I also thought the ground ball that Corey go to up the middle showed his underrated range at SS. I know you can’t keep them all, so I’ll go ahead a let AF figure this out and call him a moron later if it doesn’t work out. 😉
Good win last night. Maybe we got lucky that the rain delay caused both starting pitchers to leave the game because Nolo was looking pretty stingy last night.
Seager looks like he’s getting hot and Bellinger extended his modest hitting streak to 7. It made me feel like old times. But, the key to the game was that horrible bullpen we have shutting down the home team to break their 8 game streak. Alex Vesia is quickly becoming a stud and it’s great having Knebel back even if he didn’t finish his inning. New guy Greene must have small hands or something. He can bring it, but I’m not sure he knows where it’s going.
Trea Turner is very fast and he’s got great instincts on the bases. That line drive to Harper got there really quick and Harper has a great arm and threw a strike to the plate. Most players don’t even try to score on a ball hit that hard, right to a right fielder with a great arm. Not only does Trea score on that play, but he did not hesitate at all and topped it off with a hilariously cool slide at the plate.
For those who have given up on Lux already, Trea is a preview of the type of player Lux could be.
Sign Corey, it’s a no brainer. With KJ, CK, Joe Kelly all off the books after this year the Dodger payroll can support his AAV along with Mookie’s. With Caleb Ferguson, Tommy Kahnle, perhaps Dustin May and the advancement of Pepiot, Miller, Beeter, etc. we will see the continuing blend of minimum rookie level contracts mixed in with some very large AAV contracts. I think the old adage once mentioned by Stan Kasten that you develop pitching and buy position players is what the Dodgers will do.
2022
Mookie RF
Muncy 1B
TT 2B
Seager SS
JT DH
Cody CF
Smith C
CT3 LF
Lux 3B
Buehler
Urias
Scherzer
Price
Gonsolin
White
Knebel
Bruihl
Graterol
Treinen
Vesia
Miller
Bickford
Barnes
Beaty
Rios
McKinstry
Scherzer is re-signed, Pollock is traded while his value is high in the last year of a four-year contract for some depth pieces. Need a RH bat off the bench, but CT3 is brought back as your every day LF, Knebel is re-signed. The LA to OKC train will involve Ferguson, White, Bruihl, Miller, and others. Kahnle and Ferguson might start out on the IL, but they will be huge pieces in 2022. Duffy, Hamels will be re-signed as a veteran swingman/spot starter long relief guy.
Be pigs!