If you happen to think “this” is what Clayton Kershaw happens to be right about now, then you might as well pack it all up and go home. It’s hopeless. In April, Clayton was named the NL Pitcher of the month. Clayton had a great month, going 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He allowed opposing batters to hit just .175 off of him and struck out 41 in 38.0 innings pitched.
Then, last night, he gave up 4 runs on 8 hits in 4.2 IP and walked 5 and I immediately hear:
“Let’s be real about things, this is who Clayton Kershaw is nowadays.
He is no longer an Ace, and hasn’t been for a couple of seasons, as the various injuries and innings pitched have taken their toll on him.
He is still a very good Pitcher, but no longer Elite. He is a #3.
It is not realistic to expect him to pitch like an Ace any more. He is still my favourite player but let’s get some perspective. The Dodgers will struggle in the Post Season unless they can pick up someone to pair with Julio in the shorter series.
I’m not being negative, I’m really enjoying the season so far, but we need another top-end Starter.“
Just to be clear, that was not Clayton Kershaw who went 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.76 WHIP? That was not Clayton Kershaw who allowed opposing batters to hit just .175 off of him and struck out 41 in 38.0 innings pitched in April? Because if it wasn’t him, then I would say the Dodgers should make some other plans. How in the hell did he win the pitcher of the month in April? Smoke and mirrors? OK, I am being silly, because we all know it was him.
We also know that Yu Darvish, the Padres’ Ace, has a 3.19 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP for the season, while Kershaw has a 2.53 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. But you can’t have it both ways! If Kershaw had a bad game last night, so be it! Does that mean he can’t have another good game…. ever? Clayton was simply not hitting his spots last night, so that means he will never hit his spots again. I think that is BS! Clayton gave up 8 ER in April, 4 of which were in a single game on April 8th when he also gave up two home runs.
Clayton is a man; he is not perfect. He makes mistakes and has some good starts and some bad starts. He was not great last night. The Dodgers are trying to manage his workload this season, which may or may not include sitting out some games. Julio is the Ace. Either Gonsolin or May slots at #2 (it’s up to one of them to seize the spot – so far it has not happened!). Kershaw slots at #3 with Gonsolin or May at #4 and Gavin Stone at #5.
Gavin Stone has four pitches, but does not use his curve much since it tracks like a changeup. If Gavin can land his fastball, changeup, and slider, he does not need another pitch. Less is more for a pitcher who masters the changeup.
Every pitcher in history to ever walk up onto the mound is capable of throwing a fastball. It’s almost too classic. It’s a given. A guarantee. A no-brainer. Everyone can do it!
No matter the experience, level or throwing practice of any given pitcher, they know how to throw a fastball. They know the grip and the rip!
But how many of them have truly mastered the fastball’s kid brother: the changeup? The answer, is “Very few!”
The off-speed pitch is one of the most difficult to hit in the game, because it looks just like a fastball, and makes you look foolish for thinking it was, as you screw yourself into the ground!
When breaking down the best changeup pitchers in recent memory, we have a solid group of future Hall of Famers who have all destroyed batters throughout the years.
The best one may be Tom Glavine, who was the last pitcher to win 20 games in three consecutive years. World Series MVP. A standout in one of the greatest rotations in MLB history. How did he do it all? Changeup.
What helped Tom Glavine be so dominant for so long was the level of command and comfort he had with his pitching arsenal. Even as his career began to wind down and the velocity was no longer there, Glavine would alternate between changeups and fastballs on the corners of the strike zone. You try guessing which one to swing on. Of course, Pedro Martinez commanded the changeup as well as anyone in the modern game.
Gavin Stone has an advanced understanding and “feel” for the changeup, and depending upon how Noah Syndergaard progresses with his mechanics will determine how much of Gavin Stone we see in the rotation. Of course, he is at OKC, but he is just a plane trip away at any given moment.
Rants & Raves
- I do not see Miguel Vargas ever moving to 3B. He is taking to 2B like no player I have ever seen. He simply “commands” the position, like it is his spot alone.
- Michael Busch may move to the Hot Corner next year unless JDM needs surgery this year. Then Max could go to DH and Busch to 3B.
- I’ll say one thing about Bobby Miller – He can really look bad! It seems there is no middle ground with him.
- Landon Knack is pitching like there is no tomorrow (5.1 IP 1 ER, 5 K’s 1.50 ERA)
- Jon Rooney is taking to relieving like a pig to sloop!
Discussion (39)
Disagree, not disagreeable
FWIW, it’s funny to me when we make declarations about who is a No. 1, 2 or 3 pitcher.
A few seasons back, although I opposed the Bauer deal, it seemed to me that the Dodgers had four aces: Kershaw, Buhler, Urias and Bauer.
May showed his ace-like talent today. Kershaw has been great this year until his last start. Urias has been inconsistent. Last year, Gonsolin was a Cy Young contender before he got hurt.
But here are a few recent “back end” starters for the Dodgers: Stripling, Wood and Tyler Anderson.
And each of these guys were selected for the all-star team–and sometimes the aces fell short.
Kershaw had a bad day. He’s entitled to the occasional bad day.
As I note before, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sign another one-year contract with the Dodgers…. for the next three or four years. Heck, maybe five or six. As long as the competitive fires burn, I expect Kershaw to be a Dodger–though the Rangers are improving and might need a replacement for deGrom. Remember, Kersh is a lot younger than peers like like Scherzer and Verlander and Greinke. Rich Hill is now 43 and still effective.
Anyway, after Kersh’s bad day, it was very nice to see Dustin May come through today. Perfect timing, because Snell was great too, except for that one mistake to Taylor.
And kudos to Taylor. Maybe his year-plus-long slump really is coming to an end. Over the last 15 days, Taylor has produced a .970 OPS, bestt on the team. Sure hope he keeps it going.
Also kudos to the bullpen. The Bazooka was a little shaky, but otherwise they locked it down. Dodgers had only 3 hits but came away with the W.
And since many here are on Outman Watch, let’s note that he was 0-3 with another K but also another BB. The walk is, perhaps, more evidence of his maturity as a player. Late in the game with Dodgers up 2-1, he steps up to plate with Max on first and one out. Outman could have tried to a be hero and knock in an insurance run. Instead he was careful–and I assume the pitcher was pitching him carefully as well. His walk put runners on first and second with one out. Unfortunately, Heyward and Rojas were unable to drive them in.
Speaking of walks, Will Smith collected another 3 today. He missed a bunch of games, of course, but Will now has 13 walks against only 6 Ks. That’s about a 2:1 ratio.
It could be something of a fluke, like Vargas’s high walk rate early in the season. But Will is the only Dodger who is walking more than striking out. It’s one reason why Will lead the team with a .400 OBP, just ahead of Max at .392
Sweeper, Slider, Curve:
https://www.pitcherlist.com/a-sweeping-sensation-what-we-know-about-baseballs-hot-new-pitch/
Fire Roberts, Lehmann is DA MAN!!
Just kidding
Padre fans wondering what exactly does Soto bring again? .220 average now.
Warm weather changes things but, it’s not exactly cold out here either.
Most excellent win! Nice!
Time to beat the village people!
We may have won this game but this was another pathetic hitting performance against a good team. Cmon Mookie, earn your paycheck!
Unless Thompson does something spectacular soon, he’s done as a Dodger.
Lakers crushing Dubs.
Who we got in 9th? Carpenter worries me. He’s due.
Vesia? Phillips.
Outman is getting exposed by good pitching. He’s gonna have to learn to foul off tough pitches.
May’s velo down, done thru 6. Another successful outing.
6 shutout with 99 pitches. Good job. Big boost for Big Red.
Snell is one bad slider that didn’t break against Taylor from no hitting us. What is it with this guy and the Dodgers? He could be in the middle of rehabbing from Tommy John and still shut us down!
Not enough swing ‘n miss for May, but the bottom line thru 5 still works.
Thx CT3. Claiming earlier we get to Snell in the 4th. Bingo.
Jedi level 7
The Weak Starting Lineup has produced!
Good deal. Taylor might be making his comeback.
Weak. Trolls.
https://twitter.com/PhillipMolnar/status/1654702224763936768?s=20
“ Over his career, Kershaw has a 2.12 ERA in 46 games vs. the Padres…”
Does 1-4 and 5.28era shut us down again? I love Kersh’s response to the crying meme. If you don’t like it pitch better! The guy is just a class act even if he is a #4 rotation piece now!???? And NL pitcher of the month!
Friday scores
El Paso 7, Oklahoma City 4
Tulsa 4, San Antonio 0
Tulsa 2, San Antonio 1
Quad Cities 7, Great Lakes 0
Lake Elsinore 12, Rancho Cucamonga 5
Saturday schedule
10:05 a.m. PT: Great Lakes (Ronan Kopp) vs. Quad Cities (Mason Barnett)
1:35 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Payton Martin, Maddux Bruns) at Lake Elsinore (Fernando Sanchez, Jagger Haynes), doubleheader
5:05 p.m. : Tulsa (Nick Frasso) vs. San Antonio (Daniel Camarena),
5:35 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Matt Andriese) at El Paso (Matt Waldron)
Bobby Miller’s second outing this season was unfortunately very short. After giving up a single run in the first inning, Miller allowed a two-run homer to start the bottom of the second. Then back-to-back errors meant a strike out and caught stealing still left one runner on base.
Miller would then issue a walk followed by two more hits. That ended Miller’s start but the damage continued as all those runners would score before OKC could close the second inning.
The final line for Miller was 1⅔ innings, seven runs (three earned), five hits, two walks and two strikeouts.
Player of the day
Emmet Sheehan had an excellent start in the first of two Tulsa Driller wins on Friday. Sheehan pitched five scoreless innings where he struck out eight and scattered three hits.
8:40 PM ET
Dodgers (19-14)
Padres (18-15)
SP Dustin May R
3-1 3.15 ERA
Blake Snell L
1-4 5.28 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Chris Taylor R
DH Max Muncy L
2B M. Vargas R
CF James Outman L
LF T. Thompson R
SS Miguel Rojas R
Partly-cloudy-day
0%
63° Wind 14 mph L-R
Weak starting lineup
Lots of people have lots of takes about players on this site, but when pressed, they have difficulty owinng their takes. Geeeeezzzzz!
I haven’t spoken a word about Bellinger since he left the Dodgers. But I watched the Cubs broadcast yesterday against the Marlins. The announcing team was discussing Belli. He’s hitting .297/.933, his walk rates up, his chase rate down, his k rate is down. They had discussed Belli with the Cubs Hitting Coach Dustin Kelly. Kelly pointed out that mechanically Bellinger was keeping his head more still. Kelly said he’s not crashing forward toward the ball, the way he had been the last couple years. Damn, I wish I had thought of that.
I also heard the Rays take all their infield practice reps at game speed. I like that. Fewer reps but more quality at game speed.
We have a lot of new names for old pitches. Now you got a 4 seam fastball, a two-seem fastball, a cutter, a slutter, a sweeper, curveball, power sinker, splitter, and various change ups. No knucklers anymore. The “new” sweeper seems to me to be the old Legion roundhouse curveball that got all the kids out in Little League especially a left handed one. As kids grew up and got better it became a hanger. Now it’s back as a sweeper, I guess.
I wonder how Vin would have described all these pitches? If you remember, he called any non-fastball a change. Even slow curves were change-ups in Vin’s vernacular.
Orel is a salesman. He took a routine 1-4-3 double play and made it into an historical web gem dp.
When we struggle offensively we are usually in a “pull mode”. Muncy took a Darvish curve way away that practically bounced into the right hand batters box and found a way away to pull it as a grounder to 2nd. That is a pitch that can’t be pulled. When he’s right he drives that ball to left center. He’s better but not there yet.
Good article Mark!
I am a huge fan of Kershaw on and off the field. He is the best pitcher of his generation, and he has pitched great the last two years. He struggled last night with his control and walked 5 guys for the first time in 4 years. Still, the game was 1-1 headed to the bottom of 5th with Padres only run a HR by Tatis on a pretty good pitch. Players like Tatis can hit decent pitches out. Off the bat it looked like a pop up, but Tatis hit it 400 ft. It happens with great players.
In the 5th inning, Kershaw walked the lead off hitter on a pitch that looked like a strike. Then after getting two swings and misses from Tatis, Kershaw hung a slider and Tatis hit it out. Probably his worst pitch of the game in that circumstance. Sometimes hitters foul it back, sometimes they hit it out. The last run scored on a 55 mph roller that put Machado on, followed by a ground ball single to Soto, and an infield hit by Kim.
Sure Kershaw had a bad game, but just one bad pitch to Tatis and some bad luck turned a 1-1 game into a 4-1 game.
Maybe Watford Dodger is correct, and Kershaw is only a #3 pitcher. I usually agree with Watford, but I hope he is wrong here. To me, last night was an outlier for Kershaw, and I expect him to perform well the rest of the year. No matter how he performs, I will be a huge fan, and far from unbiased. But I am willing to give Clayton credit for his great performance in April, and not discount his great work last month based on one bad pitch. This could change as the season develops, but I am hopeful Kershaw will perform well.
He said he is no longer an ace. If he was only talking about the Dodgers, I can agree he is probably not the best pitcher on the staff. However, I believe the statement “He is no longer an ace” was meant to apply to baseball in general. If so, he is way off base. Also, if he is only talking about the Dodgers, then so far this year, he is the ace of our staff. Either way you cut it, he is wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I understood what Watford Dodger was saying and he wasn’t being negative. Kershaw was outright amazing during his prime years and he no longer is. That is not a shot at Kershaw, it’s just acknowledging that Kershaw is no longer that out of this world amazing pitcher. I don’t want to speak for Watford Dodger, but he still thinks Kershaw is a very good pitcher, but not that 3 time Cy Young winner. There is nothing wrong with saying that and I think everyone would agree with that. Or maybe not, but should agree.
Just for the record, I do not buy the Bullshit Badger is selling about Mookie being spooked about Vargas. He tried the same BS with me when I said that Adrian Beltre would be a Hall-of-Fame 3B. I don’t buy that weak shit! Mookie and Miggy have a bond. I don’t believe that BS… at all. You have never heard it from a reliable source!
Who are you taking?
Dodgers’ 1-4 lineup or
Padres’ 1-4
Nice week for the Dodgers. Interesting series this weekend with the Padres. They have spent a lot of prospects and money on that team . That line up is really deep and those first four hitters are potentially as potent as the Betts, Freeman, Turner, Smith quartet at the top of the Dodger line up last year. Maybe more so. Hader gives them a legit closer from the left side – a tough match up for the Dodgers given their struggles against left handlers. Actually, I think the Dodger rotation stacks up pretty well against the Padre rotation. Snell has been tough on the Dodgers but his overall numbers don’t match up with Kershaw. I would take the Dodgers rotation over the Padres right now especially considering that Wacha and Lugo are their 4 and 5 starters. The Padres depth in their rotation is lacking and the Dodgers have Stone, Miller, Pepiot as options in the next weeks to months if Syndergaard struggles. Not to mention Knack and Frasso at AA, for now. Plus the Dodger bullpen will potentially add an arm or two from the group of Nelson, Hudson, Feyereisen, and Reyes once they return from injuries. I do not think it is a top end starter the Dodgers will be seeking though they certainly have the prospect depth to get one if needed. Not suggesting the Dodgers should build to beat San Diego because I think the Braves are as good or better than San Diego.
The line up has been showing signs of life recently. I think Vargas is starting to turn a corner offensively. I like the plan to use Rojas in a rotation at short with Betts and Taylor. Two starts a week or against left handed pitching makes sense for now. Would like to see Busch get some at bats during this time with Martinez on the DL. Is this back soreness more serious than we think given Mark’s comment? Anyway, thought that Betts at short last night with Busch as the DH and Peralta in left made sense. Rojas was 1 for 13 vs. Darvish.
If the Dodgers are going to make a move for anything a shortstop who is a rental like Ahmed Rosario makes sense or an outfielder (preferably right hand hitter) seem the most likely. They have 9 right hand pitchers at AA, AAA, or recuperating who can be part of a deal. Knack, Sheehan, Frasso, Nastrini, and Ryan plus the four already mentioned. Dodgers should let this play out for a few more weeks or more and then the picture becomes clearer as sample sizes get bigger in terms of at bats, innings pitched, starts, etc. If Martinez’s back is a long term injury concern maybe a third baseman becomes the move with Muncy going to DH. Muncy has been okay at third but he has struggled charging slow hit balls.
RHP Emmet Sheehan: Sheehan had a career 4.80 ERA at Boston College despite featuring a promising fastball-changeup combination. He’s since spent nearly two years in the Dodgers system after arriving as a sixth-round pick, which means that you shouldn’t be surprised to read the following sentence: he’s struck out 35 of the 78 Double-A batters he’s faced this season, a rate that translates to 16.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Yowza. Clearly Sheehan has good stuff; the question facing him now, and heading forward, is whether his purposeful operation will allow him to throw enough strikes to maximize its potency.
The Padres need a good shellacking from the Dodgers to reassert the regular season dominance we saw last year.
“He is taking to 2B like no player I have ever seen“
Really? I don’t see it. I know he’s got Betts spooked.
Kershaw. I expect exactly what his projections say., which is who knows as the projections are all over the map. Composite says about 150 innings, which for him means 25 starts. ERA 3.25. Sounds about right. Not ace numbers but a solid #3. Ace should throw 180 innings of 2.75, #2 160 innings of 3.00, Kershaw, #4 130 innings, #’s 5-8 100 of around or below 4. That’s my formula, make it so.
I hate losing to the Padres, but the outcome was fairly predictable— the other teams’ ace vs our #3/4. Pitches like Darvish cause teams to struggle with RISP.
It’s a long season and I expect our team to make adjustments for the playoffs, but during the season we need to take care of business in meaningful games, like today.
So – just to reiterate,
He is no longer an ace – Tick
He is a #3 – Tick – in fact was probably a 4 last season behind Julio, Tyler and Tony.
Not really worried about his ERA in April – I think you’ll find it’s the Post Season where he struggles – Tick
Not sure what your point is lol?
How can a kid with Miller’s stuff be this bad?
What do you see for Lux next year?