CBT Threshold and Team Salaries
One day until the Winter Meetings, and I was trying to come up with something clever to say that has not already been speculated and discussed 100 times already. Since there has been a lot of speculation that the Dodgers have unlimited funds, I thought that I would look to see where all of the teams are in relationship to the CBT threshold of $206MM. This is a dynamic chart
One day until the Winter Meetings, and I was trying to come up with something clever to say that has not already been speculated and discussed 100 times already. Since there has been a lot of speculation that the Dodgers have unlimited funds, I thought that I would look to see where all of the teams are in relationship to the CBT threshold of $206MM. This is a dynamic chart and it will change hourly. This chart is as of 12/6/18.
| CBT Salary | |||
| Division | Team | Team | Division |
| NL West | Dodgers | $ 190,400,000 | |
| Colorado | $ 143,279,166 | ||
| Arizona | $ 118,491,666 | ||
| San Francisco | $ 164,252,523 | ||
| San Diego | $ 84,703,333 | $ 701,126,688 | |
| NL East | Atlanta | $ 114,580,000 | |
| Washington | $ 188,572,709 | ||
| Philadelphia | $ 129,575,000 | ||
| Mets | $ 148,610,739 | ||
| Miami | $ 81,179,762 | $ 662,518,210 | |
| NL Central | Milwaukee | $ 114,152,162 | |
| Cubs | $ 224,957,143 | ||
| St. Louis | $ 153,668,483 | ||
| Pittsburgh | $ 82,316,667 | ||
| Cincinnati | $ 106,570,237 | $ 681,664,692 | |
| AL East | Boston | $ 239,996,667 | |
| Yankees | $ 177,825,000 | ||
| Tampa Bay | $ 53,961,667 | ||
| Toronto | $ 116,060,714 | ||
| Baltimore | $ 93,600,000 | $ 681,444,048 | |
| AL Central | Cleveland | $ 119,758,333 | |
| Minnesota | $ 85,241,667 | ||
| Detroit | $ 95,200,000 | ||
| Chicago | $ 75,341,667 | ||
| Kansas City | $ 91,908,333 | $ 467,450,000 | |
| AL West | Houston | $ 154,396,429 | |
| Oakland | $ 78,283,333 | ||
| Seattle | $ 134,360,714 | ||
| Angels | $ 139,477,381 | ||
| Texas | $ 111,154,762 | $ 617,672,619 | |
| $ 3,811,876,257 | |||
59inarow is correct about the gargantuan amount of money in MLB. Currently the estimated 2019 AAV salaries in MLB will exceed $3.8 Billion. But it is all relative, and each team will spend what they feel is appropriate. The current CBA does not limit the floor or ceiling for the salaries. The only punitive action is for those teams that exceed the threshold. There are no consequences for those teams that do not spend what the players union believes should be a minimum expended. Currently there are two teams already in excess of the threshold; Boston at nearly $240MM and the Cubs at nearly $225MM. Neither team is in a position to reduce their payroll below the threshold. There are three teams that are approaching the threshold; LAD at $190.4MM, Washington at $188.6MM, and NYY at $177.8MM.
All three teams do have some options if they want to take on a significant contract. For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that the contract is for Bryce Harper for an AAV of $32MM. The Yankees are in the best position as they plan on trading Sonny Gray and his $9.1MM. It will be for prospects as they would not be in a position to take on Harper’s salary and stay under the threshold without eliminating Gray. There is no possible way that any team would be willing to pay $12.4MM for Didi Gregorius for half a season in his walk year. So the best NYY can do is to trade Gray and reduce the obligation $168.7MM. They would then be in a position to sign Harper or Machado and stay under the threshold. But that would preclude them from signing replacements for J A Happ, Zach Britton, David Robertson, Neil Walker, and Lance Lynn. Does NYY go after more pitching or Harper. I am going with more pitching and staying under the CBT threshold.
The Nationals can try to trade Tanner Roark (estimated at $9.8MM) or Ryan Zimmerman ($16.67MM). I have eliminated any thought that they would be willing to trade Anthony Rendon and his estimated salary of $17.6MM. I also doubt that they would trade Roark since they still need another pitcher, and if they traded Roark they would need two. They need another pitcher more than they need to sign Harper. Right now, that #5 is Erick Fedde, and I do not think they are totally comfortable with that. Even Lerner has said that they are saying good-bye to Harper. I think the Corbin signing did that. The Nats are quite comfortable going into the season with Soto, Eaton, Robles and Taylor as their OF. They will find an inexpensive #5.
The Dodgers can move Puig, and one of Wood or Hill, and they could be in a position to sign Harper. But they would not be able to acquire Kluber, and probably not Realmuto. We have gone around and around as to what the Dodgers can do AND stay under the CBT threshold. We can continue to disagree amongst ourselves whether we believe the Dodgers will exceed the CBT threshold. It is irrelevant what we believe. Only the Dodgers know what they are willing to do. Both LAD and NYY have said that they have no intentions of exceeding the threshold. Will they? We will learn in a few months.
Many teams look at the threshold as a salary cap. It cannot be referred to as such as that would be in violation of the CBA. But what should rankle the union more is the number of teams that are not spending. Per the chart, there are 10 teams that have projected salaries of less than $100MM, with the Rays the least at around $54MM. That makes a difference of about $186MM between the two extremes (Boston and Tampa Bay). They both happen to be in the same division. The Red Sox are now tapped without Kimbrel and Kelly. The Union wants to know what these teams are doing with their revenue sharing. Instead of going after teams that are reluctant to exceed the threshold and screaming collusion, maybe the Union should draw the line at the next CBA and require a salary floor. If they do not exceed the floor, teams will lose draft picks as well as revenue sharing funds.
A couple of other interesting factoids about the CBT salaries. If salaries dictated the WS winners as some seem to believe, then the NL is spending a lot of money for no reason. They have a projected salary nearly $300MM more than the AL. The NL West spends more on salaries than any other division, and the weak AL Central not surprisingly spends the least.
Yes, there is a lot of monopoly money in baseball, and some teams can afford more in salaries than others. Houston has gone from being one of the bottom salaried teams to now being #4 with approximately $154.3MM projected with St. Louis right behind at $153.7MM.
There is still a lot of money to be spent, at least $600MM. Who is going to spend it? Is Bryce Harper going to get $300MM? Who is going to spend it? How much will Machado get and who is going to pay it. Philly looks to get one of them, with Harper the favorite. Machado says he will pay 3B for NYY. But with his projected salary seemingly decreasing, there may be a few more teams in play. Will he be willing to play 3B for other teams to get more teams bidding? Are the Reds going to pony up for Keuchel? Now that St. Louis has traded for Paul Goldschmidt, are they now going to go all in? Will a team go three years for Happ or six for Kimbrel? With the number of changes that have taken place thus far, I am guessing that next week should be fun.
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So, tonight was the night we take our family to the Indianapolis Yuletide Celebration at Hilbert Circle Theater. We have dinner and then watch the show. Josh Kaufman was the MC. However, I was surprised and happy to see my Godson Max, and his parents at the same show. His father is a Major in the US Army and one of my closest friends. Two tours of duty. Thank you for your service John!
Lee Smith and Harold Baines elected to Hall of Fame by Today’s Game Era Committee. Smith ok, he had a lot of saves but Baines?! In the Hall of Fame? The one in Cooperstown? That’s a travesty IMO.
Mark May I thank you AC and DC for your contributions with your bloges. they are fun to read and think about during the off-season until the hot stove starts
I want to thank everyone who contributes to this blog, I appreciate opinions and discenting opinions. It’s fun!
You speak perfect words AC.No thank you for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.
Other than resigning our own free agents, recent history suggests the off season will be mostly “tinkering around the edges”.
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That is, until the front office pulls a rabbit off of the hat that none of us expected.
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For evidence of this, I offer one word – Kemp. First he was a Dodger, then he wasn’t, then he was. I dare say no one predicted either of those trades.
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All our speculation means nothing – though it provides a forum to analyze the teams strengths and weaknesses.
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Don’t get you blood pressure too high until you see the rabbit ears. I’m not sure we will see a rabbit this winter but …
This might just be the offseason that Freidman puts his stamp on the team or it could be more tinkering around the edges which at this point would cause my head to throb or reach for an adult beverage.
It looks like Jose Leclerc just might be available for the right price. Texas has not said it had to be waaaaay above market. They are going to need quality soon to be MLB ready players, or players with loads of team control.
AC, I’m new to this site so am asking who your son is, or is that something your prefer not to divulge?
AC, your analysis of the situation gave me much to consider since my knowledge is driven more by the public sector and not for profits. Baseball is certainly neither of these although deeply involved with both.
One of the ways that I feel that MLB could help grow the game for the future would be to pay considerably more in salaries and expenses to all of the players, coaches, staff and operating professionals at the minor league levels under the auspices of the organization. Better pay at the entry levels would, hopefully; encourage the better multi-sport athletes in high school or college to pursue baseball professionally rather than other options. This would be a real positive use of the revenue sharing $$$, IMO.
Mark,
Does 59 remind you of your old nemesis, Badger?
10 year guaranteed contracts are stupid investments. Player union shouldn’t expect any team to offer stupid contracts.
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A team full of AAAA players should not have a minimum payroll.
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Revenue sharing should go for something like WAR bonuses. Insufficient WAR, no earned revenue sharing. Money stays in pool. Goal is to reduce base salaries and reward performance.
From Vassegh: (not really sure I understand what he is saying)
#Dodgers shopping list includes adding to bullpen.
Andrew Friedman said the perception that he won’t spend on higher profile FA relievers is inaccurate “We’ve made offers on guys where we would have spent on the bullpen.” #WinterMeetings #Dodgers
Ditto to AC and Richie.
Let me preface this by saying NO to Harper to to hell with BorASS. Everyone here wants to WIN the WS, not just be in it. We all have our own ways of making that wish become reality even though NOTHING is GUARANTEED. We could have an All Star at EVERY position and still lose.
I also believe that except for Seager, CK, Bellinger and JT and also Ruiz, May and maybe White we have no untouchables. So here’s the plan: We get Kluber and Jose Ramirez from Cleveland and Realmuto from Miami. Ramirez would play 2B as he has in the past.
In return those two teams receive whomever it takes. Let others work out the details.
59, I am not going to get drawn into a pissing contest with you about this. But if you believe that ONLY owners are investors, then I do not need to. I have no idea what you do for a living, but I am guessing it is not corporate finance. You do not need to be an owner to be an investor. I have structured dozens of debt refinance private placement offerings to eliminate traditional bank financing (for a lot of reasons). I have a fair amount of corporate bonds that I invest in my IRA portfolio and that is not ownership, but they are investments. The investor package could very well have been for debt restructure through a private placement offering. I have no idea if that is what it was, but neither do you. But we do know (absolutely know) that the Dodgers had a debt service ratio compliance issue that they needed to address. Dodgerrick is correct when he says that Manfred did not tell the Dodgers that they had to get under the CBT threshold. What he did tell them was that they needed a plan to get back in compliance. As everyone continues to say, the Dodgers do not have a revenue problem. Do not disagree. They are flush in revenues. Therefore, either the operating expenses (player salaries?) need to be reduced or the debt needs to be restructured. Maybe both.
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Also, if Guggs were sued (not by Billie Jean King) it will not be the first time because of the Dodgers. See Ogles v Security Benefit Life. The class action suit may or may not have had original merit. But after the settlement, the Dodgers are now collateral for Security Benefit Life. The number of investors is more than just Mark Walter, Bobby Patton, Stan Kasten, Earvin ‘Magic’ Johnson, Peter Guber, Todd Boehly, Billie Jean King, and Ilana Kloss.
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I will make one other statement on this subject with you. You could very well be right that the Dodgers will sign Bryce Harper. I genuinely hope not. But I have no direct knowledge as to what they will or will not do and neither do you. I am only going on my interpretation of peripheral comments. But I will say that if the Dodgers do sign Harper, I will acknowledge that you were right. It will not be the first time I am wrong nor the last. Even if the Dodgers do not sign Harper, I will not say it is solely because of staying under the CBT threshold, because I do not know. I can and do speculate on what I read. It could be because of the threshold, or it could be that Andrew is just not as mesmerized by Bryce Harper as you are.
AC – I’m still stuck on Oligopoly!?!? Is it best served with a red or white wine???
Jonah Keri writes today (or speculates) that the Dodgers May go for players with narrower splits. Abreu and Harper mentioned as targets. Pederson, Puig maybe the other way?
Nice thought provoking piece today AC, and spirited discussion! Whether the team will go above the CBT threshold or not is an open question and I hope they do-just not for Machado or Harper. Manny wore out his welcome for me with his lack of hustle at times and perceived dirty play (I never forgot throwing his bat at Donaldson either) I have never cared for Harper and I’m from Vegas so that is a statement on other things besides on field performance, he is a me not we kind of player and there is Boras. The team could get 2 or 3 players for what they would pay him and it’s a long term commitment. Who should go and who should stay and who should be acquired seem to have no real consensus: Bum wants Joc, MJ wants Toles, I want Puig and Muncy, on and on it goes but you have to give up something to get something. I am hoping for a splash at the Meetings where a 3 team deal can be done more easily. A lot of teams will make some noise in the next few days, I am counting on the Dodgers being one of them.
Here’s another no vote on Harper. Let’s go get Haniger instead. With Puig and Kemp gone either this winter or after next season, we’ll need a right handed outfielder with some power. Haniger is that guy. We need to make the deal interesting for DiPoto so how about Muncy, Joc/Toles, White/Gonsolin. Two guys who immediately plug into his starting lineup plus a pitcher who is only a year away. Haniger has four years of control remaining, will probably cost about 30 million less than Harper in 2019 and may very well have a higher WAR.
Bryce Harper will absolutely put us over the top this year. There will be no pitcher on earth that wouldn’t poop himself a little facing Seager, Turner and Harper in a post-season game.
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Would you rather have Realmuto’s 2018 or Barnes’ 2017? (Look at the numbers and tell me that JT is the answer, now consider defense)
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Adding Kluber and Harper is a hell of a lot better than adding Kluber and Realmuto.
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There is less of a chance that the Dodgers add Kluber and Kikuchi, than Kluber and Harper.
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Who was better in Japan, Kikuchi or Maeda? So, why do you want to add another left handed starting pitcher to the rotation, especially when Maeda (the better pitcher between the two) might not even be able to crack the starting rotation? Making even less sense is adding him and Kluber…
Kershaw
Bueller
Ryu
Hill
Maeda/Wood/Stripling/Urias
I agree with AC. There should be a MINIMUM spend and a MAXIMUM spend. The fine should be the same for being above or below. It should be substantial enough that no one wants to go above or below. Then there should be more revenue sharing!
Do you know what I like about the commenters on this site?
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NOTHING! 😉
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No, I am kidding!
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Everyone has different opinions and well-articulated different point-of-view takes. I don’t like that… I actually LOVE IT!