Can You See What Isn't… Before it is?
In no way do I think I have all the answers but do get lucky a lot. I think that it is because I do not think in the box or outside of the box. I prefer to think that there is no box! Three weeks ago, I fired our COO and VP of Operations. They were nice guys and I liked them…
In no way do I think I have all the answers but do get lucky a lot. I think that it is because I do not think in the box or outside of the box. I prefer to think that there is no box! Three weeks ago, I fired our COO and VP of Operations. They were nice guys and I liked them, but they had no vision. Every day was Ground Hog Day and when you do what you have always done… you get what you have always got. 2021 was the first year in a long-time where we only had single-digit growth. That was unacceptable to me. No excuses!
It turned out that just about every employee underneath them was underutilized and frustrated, and I moved my 23-year-old son to the COO position and spread out the rest of their duties to other lower-level managers. That then allowed me to hire the water industry’s best sales and marketing genius who also believes (like me) that we should be growing at 20% to 30% a year. The move was either bold or reckless. It was at a bad time because November and December are traditionally our best months, or maybe it was at a good time because the best thing you can do is if you have cancer is to immediately get it cut out!
So far, this is our best November ever! I don’t usually just see things as they are: I see what they can or will be. What does this have to do with baseball? It turns out that it has a lot to do with baseball. I am going to give you two examples of how it might (again, I do not have the market cornered on being right).
#1 – Trevor Bauer will be Suspended by MLB for 2022 –
If you are living under a rock or read what the American Media writes, then you may believe this. I happen to think that the opposite is true. If Trevor Bauer is not charged with a crime, MLB has ZERO EVIDENCE to suspend him! ZERO, ZILCH, NADA! For the record, I am not a Trevor Bauer fan (I am not on Twitter and do not care about his opinions). He is somewhat of a Jerk… in my opinion, but he is a damn good pitcher. In case you have no clue… he would not be the first player to be a jerk!
At any rate, since this is the year the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires, if you think the MLBPA is going to allow Trevor Bauer to be suspended when he has not even been found guilty of a crime, then you are dumber than a bag of hammers! Robber Manfred is walking a tightrope and no MLBPA member wants to be put in a position where the Grand PooBah of Baseball can suspend him without any evidence. If you tell me that there is evidence, go back to the bag of hammers. This is going to be a contentious negotiation and the MLBPA and MLB do not need this to muddy the waters.
In case, you cannot understand plain English: If Trevor Bauer is not indicted, he will pitch in the MLB in 2022. Whether it will be with the Dodgers, I cannot predict, but I would guess so. If he is charged… all bets are off! He’s out… probably for good! Many of you have been relying on the media for information, and that makes me sad. Most of those idiots have no clue. Zero!
This is not China. We have Due Process. We have the Constitution. We have a Bill of Rights. Yeah, I know some of you want Socialism, but it’s not here… yet! If Robber Manfred tries to suspend Bauer absent an indictment, there will certainly be an MLBPA Strike… and rightfully so! Write down Trevor Bauers’ name into the rotation next year… unless he is indicted and that appears to be a non-starter!
#2 Will Smith is the Best Catcher in the NL AND WILL MOVE POSITIONS
I happen to agree with that. I said exactly that the other day. Will Smith is the best catcher in the NL. Hands down! He is a great hitter… who will only get better while being a slightly above-average catcher. Will Smith is not a big guy. Catching wears on him. If he played a less taxing position, he would likely be an even better hitter. Most of the Dodgers’ pitchers prefer to throw to Austin Barnes. There is a reason for that. Will Smith is better at blocking pitches than Yasmani Grandal, but he ain’t great.
Will Smith is quick. He is an above-average runner and he is very athletic. He has played 3B and I am sure he could play 2B as well. He might also be an all-star at either position. It made sense to to move him when the Dodgers had Kaybear, as Ruiz only profiled as a catcher, but now that Ruiz is gone, it makes no sense to move Smith just to move him. However, there is a certain twenty-yea-old who is 6′ 3″ and 220 pounds who is often compared to Salvador Perez because of his size and profile, Cartaya moves well behind the plate and has the soft hands to become at least a solid receiver. He also has the plus arm strength and throwing accuracy to control the running game. He earns kudos for his maturity and already shows promise with his game-calling and leadership.
Diego is likely two years away, but he is showing signs of being a generational find. Even though he has only 80 minor league games, he has looked like a man among men. This brings me to my main point: You move Will Smith if you can replace him with an equal or better skill set and he can blossom at another position. It’s a two-for-one-deal. You don’t trade either player – you find place for them both and if Cartaya keeps progressing, he will be a better defensive catcher in 2 years (IMHO).
Other Dodger Players
I could be wrong about both players, but the conventional wisdom is frequently wrong. I choose the other side. There is no box. There may be other players who switch positions, depending upon who the Dodgers sign this offseason. I really want to see what Edwin Rios and do at 3B as he platoons with Justin Turner who will also DH. As DC mentioned yesterday, the Dodgers have several players who are progressing through the farm system – some will be traded, others will be role plers and a few will become stars. Cartaya, Busch, and Vargas are of that ilk and Pages is not far behind. Bobby Miller has the tools of an Ace.
Who plays where depends upon whether Corey Seager re-signs and then what happens with Trea Turner after 2022. It’s possible they Dodgers will retain both, one or neither. Some fans can only see what is. It is very difficult… even impossible for some fans to see what a prospect can evolve into. Of course, this is not an exact science and it is a fact that most prospects do not make it, however with great development methods and facilities, a team has a better chance at player development, and the Dodgers have spent prodigious amounts on player development. Hopefully, it will continue to pay off.
AJ Pollock has a Player Option for 2023 for at least $10,000,000 (it could be more) that at age 35, I believe he will exercise. It’s also my opinion that there is a lot to be decided before Gavin Lux is annointed an infielder again. Not saying he won’t be – it is just that there is growing interest with him as an outfielder.
Mike Busch is starting to look like a polished hitter and even though he has made progress at 2B with the glove, I do not see him as a MLB 2B. Certainly a DH… maybe a 1B, but I have never seen him there. HIs buddy, Kody Hoese has been slowed by his slow bat. The Dodgers felt it necessary to completely overhaul Kody’s swing to speed up his bat. He is very athletic, so there is a solid chance of success here, but I have heard that it was/is a “complete overhaul!” That is going to take some time.
Miguel Vargas is already a polished hitter and if he starts at AAA next year, which he likley will, he could move very quickly. Andy Pages will likely start at AA next year, and he could also move quickly. My darkhorse is ex-fatboy Brandon Lewis, who has lost over 60 pounds but retained his light-tower power. He’s best suited to 1B, where he could be a plus defender. He could also be on a fast track.
Leonard and Vivas are liely a couple of years away, but Lionel Valera could be a little ahead of them and Jacob Amaya will lmost certainly see The Show in 2022. Alex De Jesus could move fast too. Still 19, I would not be surprised to see him in 2023. James Outman will likely have a cup of coffee in 2022. Carson Taylor may be ready to take over for Austin Barnes after his contract runs out in 2022.
Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, Andre Jackson, and Landon Knack might be counted upon somewhat is 2022. Of course, some will stall, some will go backwards and some will move forward. This is the fun of watching the youngsters progress through the system. 2022 will be an eventful year, but I have a feeling we are getting ready for a wild ride with the CBA!
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Discussion (215)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I was ok not signing Scherzer but this one hurts. We’ll hear that the Dodgers came up a bit short in their offer but I’m kind of glad they didn’t go 32.5 AAV, that’s some ridiculous BS right there.
TT is our SS and I can now see the Dodgers going after Bryant or even Freeman. This one hurts a lot but we tip our hat to him and if you can get that money I say congratulations.
Is KJ or CK the next one to go? Have I mentioned lately that Boras is an asshole
Well there’s always Chris Taylor. Seriously Freeman would be interesting but Muncy was a gold glove quality first baseman. Alternatively would provide insurance if Muncy takes longer to recover.
To what extent does this free up funds to bring back sone Dodger FA?
The Dodgers will be different next year for sure. Lots of teams throwing lots of money around.
I’m sure that Friedman has a trick or two up his sleeve – look for a trade that you didn’t expect (or maybe one that you did).
Miami acquires catcher Jacob Stallings from Pittsburgh. The Fish now have a catcher worthy of working with that stable of thoroughbred starting pitchers they have.
I’m happy with Corey’s departure, there’s no way you can pay that amount to a player who can only hit, this is good for the Dodgers because they improve on the field and it is good for Corey because he gets what he wanted; now our SS, for 2022, is the top player, a complete player, Freidman is a genius. If in the coming months he gives an extension to TT then I uncover the champagne, it would be Checkmate, remember he plays chess at the highest level.
Very disappointing to lose Seager. It is doubtful that there will be anyone in our entire minor league system for the next five years who will project to equal the still remaining potential of Seager. The Dodgers may be planning for three years for now, but the immediate future is not bright. No Seager, no Scherzer, and not much left out there, outside of a stunning surprise. I liked Kluber, too.
No Scherzer, No Ray, No Corey, No Thor. This offseason sucks ass so far. I’m really disappointed in Seager. I guess it’s just all about the money for some.
So the Rangers sign two of the top shortstops on the market, Ouch! That really stings.
Kershaw should go sign there as well, as long as their spending like drunken sailors.
No Gausman, no Gray. I can’t help but feel like the music stopped and there’s no more chairs!
Corey is a class act who did his best every game he was an average SS for us. As he ages he will slide over to 3b at Texas and rake for them at the plate. If the DH comes to the NL then Turner can fill that spot and Rios can bring his prodigious power to 1b/3b. Or maybe we get Bryant for 3rd. I like that idea.
Who is going to be our ace? Striker? Urias? Who’s left out there that would be considered an ace? Kershaw might want to go to the Rangers now… but I would take him as a #3 or 4 starter for two years with an option for a 3rd. But we need a true ace. I hope its Striker, but don’t know for sure if he has what it takes mentally to be that guy on a regular basis. He showed a lot in the playoffs wanting the ball for big games but, we need a guy who leads during the season too. Just wondering what Friedman is thinking…
I saw a lot of risk with Scherzer. He missed a little time around the All-Star game and didn’t answer the bell in the post-season. I think he’s an injury waiting to happen. Corey is the one that stings, but that was a really fat offer. The Rangers are serious, but those are some big contracts. There’s a lot of pop on that team in the middle of that infield.
I guess he was worth 30M after all. I guess Scherzer wasn’t worth 50M per year after all. I’ll just go ahead and pat myself on the back on both of those as I argued Seager would get $30 and Scherzer wouldn’t get $50.
I sure hope we’re in on Correa or Story. Both are better defensive shortstops IMO. I think Story had an arm problem last year, so signing him is a little scary. Correa’s back is also scary, but he always hits in the post-season, unlike Seags. Unfortunately, I think Correa’s gonna want more cash than Seags. If we didn’t give it to Seager, we probably won’t give it to Correa.
Correa is like Bauer to me. I don’t have to like the person to want them on the team. I would welcome him to the team, but he won’t be my favorite player like Seags was. I guess Smith now takes the top spot in my mind with Belli a close second. Seager is dead to me now.
Both Scherzer and Seager got more than I expected. I didn’t foresee salaries increasing by this much and so many teams willing to go that high. I honestly thought Seager would ultimately sign with us for 8 years and $28-30M. I thought Max would be 2 and 40 per with some kind of option. Maybe AF didn’t read the market.
I hate these 10 year deals. The ones we sign as well as the ones we don’t. I just don’t see how it makes any sense that you can have an injured or sucky player, have to pay him for the life of that contract, and then you get penalized by the CBT if you want to replace him with a quality player. I just don’t see how that’s a good system.
As a fan, I want players that want to be with and stay with the team that developed them while getting paid fairly to do so. The current system isn’t getting that done.
Let’s not forget how the Braves won the World Series last year.
They went out and got 3 Journeymen Outfielders at the trade deadline.
I’ll take the “under” on whether the Mets make the playoffs next year.
Friedman is a difficult man to read. No one really knows what he is up to; hence, the acquisition of Scherzer and Turner that no one saw coming. My guess, which is as good or bad as any, is that the big off-season move will be an extension to Trae Turner. As much as I love Seager, having Turner at SS is the superior longterm move.
Here is for wishing Corey Seager a bright future in Texas!
I do not hate any of the free agents when they leave. It is their choice, and usually it is an economic one, they want the money. How can one blame Max for getting 43.3 mil a year at his age? Same with Seager, I could live a few lifetimes on that kind of money. They are both now former Dodgers, but their departure opens the door to a lot of possibilities in the trade market and with remaining free agents. Why does AF have to go for the high priced spread? Chapman, his defense and power are awesome, his K rate not so good. And he would not be cheap in trade. The best arms in free agency are gone as Ray signed today also with the Mariners. But look at the bright side, none of those guys signed with a team in our division. We will only see Max maybe twice a year. Corey only when they play the AL west. Maybe he went to Texas because he loved hitting in that ballpark during the playoffs in 2020. Right now they are set at every position except 1st with the news of Muncy’s torn ACL. They have a lot of options. Neither the Giants or Padres have made any significant pick ups either. And the Giants lost a huge piece in Gausman and with Posey’s retirement. I hate the waiting, but AF has rarely struck early in the winter. With the possibility of there being a transaction freeze along with a lock out, AF has time to peruse hit options.
Seager leaving is a disappointment, but also a relief. He is one of the best offensive players in the game when he’s healthy. His defense is just not very good for such a key defensive position. It’s not AF’s MO to overpay (except in special cases like Mookie).
The Dodgers can now move on. Next is Taylor, who is looking for a multi-year deal. I wouldn’t be surprised nor heartbroken if he left, too. You can ALMOST see the Dodgers in a quasi rebuilding phase. Last year AF described the Dodgers as being “pigs.” They went all out – paid $$$ for Bauer, and then traded for Scherzer and TT. They were all in and came up short.
They deviated from their normal strategy in building organizations when they signed Mookie to the extension, signed Bauer and traded highly touted prospects for Max and TT. I think they might go back to looking for market inefficiencies and building from within. The Padres model of overspending to buy winning teams – a strategy that’s now being used by the Mets and Rangers – is just as likely to blow up in their faces. Glad the Dodgers are staying away from that.
The upside to losing Seager, and perhaps Kershaw and Taylor, is that they will get draft picks, and considering the Rangers were terrible last year, could be pretty good.
Passan reporting that we’re about to sign Daniel Hudson to a 1 year/$7 MM contract.
I have been a Dodger fan a long time as have most of you. I have watched players come and go over all these years and quit being upset by it years ago. I actually cried when they sold Duke Snider. He was my favorite and having him go to the Mets seemed like humiliating a great player by sending him to the worst team in the league. Of course Duke was welcomed back to New York and his old Dodger fans got to see him for one more season before the Mets sold him to the Giants. I guess what really got me off of the favorite player train was free agency. Players left on their own and they did it for better money in most cases. The first taste of that bitter pill was Garvey. I respected Garv and his play. He was the most consistent Dodger and played everyday. But he was not the heart of those teams, I always thought the heart was Davey Lopes. But Lopes was traded as was Cey. But Garv, he went down south, and that was it as far as I was concerned. I am not going to invest my time in a player who is going to finish their career elsewhere. And over the years they all have one way or another. Russell stayed a Dodger and even managed for a couple of years. But the career Dodger is something that has been missing for a long time. I would love to see Kersh retire a Dodger. It just does not seem right him finishing in some other uni. But if it happens, well , we can all be happy he is somewhere he wants to be. Jansen also is a career Dodger. Will that continue? Up to KJ and the front office. Today is kind of a black Monday for some Dodger fans. Especially if you check out Twitter and all of the oh me, what shall we do now tweets. I am pretty sure AF has been working on contingency plans all off season. He knew the possibilities long before we did. He will do what it takes to put the best team on the field possible. It will be missing some important parts, but the front of the uniform will still say Dodgers. The names on the back are only part of the game.
Big money has ruined my enjoyment of baseball. Guys don’t stick with the team that drafted them for very long. It’s all about the money now.
With this whirlwind of free agent signings everywhere but us, that’s when I feel uneasy about that apparent passivity of AF, I feel like an orphan at the mercy of the entire league without having ammunition with which to respond. I hope some nice news no later than tomorrow.
Well I hope that if they’re going to continue to charge as much as they do now for seats, concessions, etc. then they will continue to bring in the players that will keep them on top as needed. It’s been fun looking forward to each season these last few years. I hope its not over now.
Some things to with money:
1. Give Buehler long-term contract
2. Give Urias multi-year deal
3. Buy out Will Smith’s pre-arb & arb years
4. Sign Kris Bryant
5 . Sign Marcus Stroman
Like MT, I have a top secret source. Mine is telling me Castellanos to SF is done.
FWIW, I suspect that the Rangers will regret the Seager deal, mostly because he has no record of being durable.
It’s strange to me when baseball pundits insist that Tommy John surgery and a broken hand on a pitch should not add to a reputation of being “injury-prone.” TJ surgery is reflection of wear and tear. My guess is that the hands of Cal Ripken and Steve Garvey and other durable stars got nailed with fastballs on their hands without breaking a bone. (To be fair, the fastballs are faster now.) Still, bone density is a real thing, and so is the instinct to avoid pitches that can do serious damage.
Semien has a track record of durability. It puzzles me that Seager’s history didn’t seem to discount his market value a bit. (I expect he’ll move to 3rd or 1st for the Rangers.)
So between Seager’s fragility and his meh fielding, I’m glad the Dodger brass will have some $300 million to invest elsewhere. Not that I don’t wish Seager well. I just wish the Dodgers better.
One hell of a busy day. Dodgers made one signing, and lost a couple of their key players from last year. But you have to think they made the right choices. For the amounts of money thrown at Seager and Scherzer, the Dodgers can now extend Turner if he and they agree, add a couple of free agent bench pieces and there are still some starting pitchers out there in either trades or free agency. Late this evening it looks as though Javier Baez is going to sign with the Tigers, who have a glaring need at SS. It is said to be a 6 year deal. MLB made a proposal to the MLBPA for a 14 team playoff format. The top seed would get a bye and the other two division winners would get to pick which wild card team they would face ala the NFL.
rn
1. Buehler
2. Urias
3. Heaney
4. Gonsolin
5. Price
6. Jackson
7. White
We need 2 SP